Departure fuel loads in time-minimizing migrating birds can be explained by the energy costs of being heavy

Lindstrom and Alerstam presented a model that predicts optimal departure fuel loads as a function of the rate of fuel deposition in time-minimizing migrants. The basis of the model is that the coverable distance per unit of fuel deposited, diminishes with increasing fuel load. This is an effect of the increasing flight costs associated with increasing body mass. Lindstrom and Alerstam (1992) found that birds left at lower fuel loads than their model predicted for which they considered various ecological explanations. Alternatively, we hypothesize that the difference between prediction and empirical data might be a result of extra resting metabolic and transport costs associated with an increase in fuel load during stopover. We develop a new version of the Lindstrom and Alerstam (1992) model taking fuel load associated costs during stopover into account. We fit empirical data from rufous hummingbirds Selasphorus rufus and bluethroats Luscinia svecica to this new model. Estimated fuel-load costs are discussed in relation to knowledge presently available on variations in basal metabolic costs and transport costs with body mass. We show that fuel-load costs within a reasonable range can explain the observed departure fuel loads when migrating birds are time minimizers.

Determinants of tourist expenditure in Fiji : a cointegration approach

Tourism is Fiji's largest industry in terms of foreign exchange earnings and employment creation. The industry earns around F$600 million per annum in foreign exchange, employs around 40,000 people, and tourist expenditure per capita is valued at around F$671. On the basis of this contribution, the industry is seen as a catalyst for economic development in Fiji; hence, it is imperative to understand the behavior of the industry. This article focuses on examining the determinants of tourist expenditure in Fiji. Using cointegration analysis and error correction models, the article finds that in the long run, real GDP in the country of origin impacts tourist spending in Fiji positively while prices and transport costs (airfares) have a negative effect. In the short run, coups d'êtat impact tourist expenditure negatively. It is envisaged that these results will help Fiji's policy makers and tourism industry stakeholders to understand the industry better.

Why do Australians, New Zealanders and Americans travel to Fiji? Evidence from cointegration, unit roots and parameter stability tests

The aim of this study was to estimate the demand for Fiji’s tourism from its three main source markets—Australia, New Zealand, and the US—using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Our main finding was that visitor arrivals to Fiji and its key determinants are cointegrated over the 1970–2000 period. We then used the autoregressive distributed lag model to estimate short-run and long-run elasticities and found that income in origin countries, transport costs, and prices were significant determinants of Fiji’s tourism demand. We also found that coups negatively impact visitor arrivals from all markets. In testing for parameter stability, we established that the series were integrated of order one in the presence of a structural break. We then used the Hansen test for parameter stability and found that the parameters of our long-run model are stable over time.

Modelling immigration flows : an application of the bounds test to Fiji - Australia migration

This paper examines the long-run and short-run determinants of migration from Fiji to Australia between 1972 and 2001 using a human capital framework, which is extended to take account of political instability in Fiji. Our main findings are that in the long run the real wage differential and political instability in Fiji are the main determinants. In the short run, there is some evidence that the wage differential and transport costs are important factors, but this finding is not robust across all specifications. Lagged migration and political instability are the most important determinants in the short run.

Cost-effectiveness of active transport for primary school children - Walking School Bus Program

Background : To assess from a societal perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of the Walking School Bus (WSB) program for Australian primary school children as an obesity prevention measure. The intervention was modelled as part of the ACE-Obesity study, which evaluated, using consistent methods, thirteen interventions targeting unhealthy weight gain in Australian children and adolescents.

Methods : A logic pathway was used to model the effects on body mass index [BMI] and disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] of the Victorian WSB program if applied throughout Australia. Cost offsets and DALY benefits were modelled until the eligible cohort reached 100 years of age or death. The reference year was 2001. Second stage filter criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'acceptability', feasibility', sustainability' and 'side-effects') were assessed to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions.

Results : The modelled intervention reached 7,840 children aged 5 to 7 years and cost $AUD22.8M ($16.6M;$30.9M). This resulted in an incremental saving of 30 DALYs (7:104) and a net cost per DALY saved of $AUD0.76M ($0.23M; $3.32M). The evidence base was judged as 'weak' as there are no data available documenting the increase in the number of children walking due to the intervention. The high costs of the current approach may limit sustainability.

Conclusions : Under current modelling assumptions, the WSB program is not an effective or cost-effective measure to reduce childhood obesity. The attribution of some costs to non-obesity objectives (reduced traffic congestion and air pollution etc.) is justified to emphasise the other possible benefits. The program's cost-effectiveness would be improved by more comprehensive implementation within current infrastructure arrangements. The importance of active transport to school suggests that improvements in WSB or its variants need to be developed and fully evaluated.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in obesity : active transport program for primary school children— TravelSMART schools curriculum program

Background: To assess from a societal perspective the cost-effectiveness of a school program to increase active transport in 10- to 11-year-old Australian children as an obesity prevention measure.
Methods: The TravelSMART Schools Curriculum program was modeled nationally for 2001 in terms of its impact on Body Mass Index (BMI) and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) measured against current practice. Cost offsets and DALY benefits were modeled until the eligible cohort reached age 100 or died. The intervention was qualitatively assessed against second stage filter criteria (‘equity,’ ‘strength of evidence,’ ‘acceptability to stakeholders,’ ‘feasibility of implementation,’ ‘sustainability,’ and ‘side-effects’) given their potential impact on funding decisions.
Results: The modeled intervention reached 267,700 children and cost $AUD13.3M (95% uncertainty interval [UI] $6.9M; $22.8M) per year. It resulted in an incremental saving of 890 (95%UI –540; 2,900) BMI units, which translated to 95 (95% UI –40; 230) DALYs and a net cost per DALY saved of $AUD117,000 (95% UI dominated; $1.06M).
Conclusions: The intervention was not cost-effective as an obesity prevention measure under base-run modeling assumptions. The attribution of some costs to nonobesity objectives would be justified given the program’s multiple benefits. Cost-effectiveness would be further improved by considering the wider school community impacts.

Flipper strokes can predict energy expenditure and locomotion costs in free-ranging northern and Antarctic fur seals

Flipper strokes have been proposed as proxies to estimate the energy expended by marine vertebrates while foraging at sea, but this has never been validated on free-ranging otariids (fur seals and sea lions). Our goal was to investigate how well flipper strokes correlate with energy expenditure in 33 foraging northern and Antarctic fur seals equipped with accelerometers, GPS, and time-depth recorders. We concomitantly measured field metabolic rates with the doubly-labelled water method and derived activity-specific energy expenditures using fine-scale time-activity budgets for each seal. Flipper strokes were detected while diving or surface transiting using dynamic acceleration. Despite some inter-species differences in flipper stroke dynamics or frequencies, both species of fur seals spent 3.79 ± 0.39 J/kg per stroke and had a cost of transport of ~1.6-1.9 J/kg/m while diving. Also, flipper stroke counts were good predictors of energy spent while diving (R(2) = 0.76) and to a lesser extent while transiting (R(2) = 0.63). However, flipper stroke count was a poor predictor overall of total energy spent during a full foraging trip (R(2) = 0.50). Amplitude of flipper strokes (i.e., acceleration amplitude × number of strokes) predicted total energy expenditure (R(2) = 0.63) better than flipper stroke counts, but was not as accurate as other acceleration-based proxies, i.e. Overall Dynamic Body Acceleration.