Hypothesis generation and testing in event profiling for digital forensic investigations

The need for an automated approach to forensic digital investigation has been recognized for some years, and several authors have developed frameworks in this direction. The aim of this paper is to assist the forensic investigator with the generation and testing of hypotheses in the analysis phase. In doing so, the authors present a new architecture which facilitates the move to automation of the investigative process; this new architecture draws together several important components of the literature on question and answer methodologies including the concept of ‘pivot’ word and sentence ranking. Their architecture is supported by a detailed case study demonstrating its practicality.

Formalizing the concept of entrepreneurial capacity

This study develops a definition of the concept of entrepreneurial capacity and formalizes it in two models explaining how value is created in the innovation process. The formalization integrates the influential opportunity-based definition of entrepreneurship research offered by Shane and Venkataraman (2000) with the consensus prevailing in the management, strategy, economics and entrepreneurship literatures that innovation is a process for transforming the inherent economic value of new knowledge into realized economic value for identified stakeholders. The linear flow and mathematical models presented in the study possess the clarity and richness required of a theoretical framework for generating and testing insightful hypotheses. This study, regarding Penrose (1959) more as theorist of entrepreneurship than of resources, deepens scepticism about the relevance to entrepreneurship of the literatures on the resource-based view of the firm (RBV) and dynamic capabilities (DC). Finally, the arguments and perspectives of the study imply several pedagogic possibilities and challenges for entrepreneurship educators.

Space-for-time substitution to assess likely response of aquatic ecosystems to future climate-related change

Predicting and managing ecological response to a changing climate is often limited by an incomplete understanding of response thresholds and biogeographic differences. For example, step changes in rainfall and runoff, and threshold dynamics and hysteresis in ecological response make projection of future conditions difficult. To combat these constraints we propose that biophysical data across exiting climatic gradients can be used in a space-for-time substitution to predict climate-related ecological response elsewhere. This method builds on previous attempts at space-for-time substitution by using patterns in physical and physicochemical data to explain biological differences across the spatial gradient, then using those patterns to formulate hypotheses of temporal ecological response and finally testing those hypotheses on temporal data available in a second, similar region of interest. 

The value of eutherian-marsupial comparisons for understanding the function of glucocorticoids in female mammal reproduction.

This article is part of a Special Issue "SBN 2014". Chronic stress is known to inhibit female reproductive function. Consequently, it is often assumed that glucocorticoid (GC) concentrations should be negatively correlated with reproductive success because of the role they play in stress physiology. In contrast, a growing body of evidence indicates that GCs play an active role in promoting reproductive function. It is precisely because GCs are so integral to the entire process that disruptions to adrenal activity have negative consequences for reproduction. The goal of this paper is to draw attention to the increasing evidence showing that increases in adrenal activity are important for healthy female reproduction. Furthermore, we outline several hypotheses about the functional role(s) that GCs may play in mediating reproduction and argue that comparative studies between eutherian and marsupial mammals, which exhibit some pronounced differences in reproductive physiology, may be particularly useful for testing different hypotheses about the functional role of GCs in reproduction. Much of our current thinking about GCs and reproduction comes from research involving stress-induced levels of GCs and has led to broad assumptions about the effects of GCs on reproduction. Unfortunately, this has left a gaping hole in our knowledge about basal GC levels and how they may influence reproductive function, thereby preventing a broader understanding of adrenal physiology and obscuring potential solutions for reproductive dysfunction.

Sexual segregation in western grey kangaroos: testing alternative evolutionary hypotheses

In sexually dimorphic ungulates, sexual segregation is hypothesized to have evolved because of sex-specific differences in body size and/or reproductive strategies. We tested these alternative hypotheses in kangaroos, which are ecological analogues of ungulates. Kangaroos exhibit a wide range of body sizes, particularly among mature males, and so the effects of body size and sex can be distinguished. We tested predictions derived from these hypotheses by comparing the distribution of three sex–sex size classes of western grey kangaroos Macropus fuliginosus, in different habitats, and the composition of groups of kangaroos, across seasons. In accordance with the predation risk-reproductive strategy hypothesis, during the non-breeding season, females, which were more susceptible to predation than larger males, and were accompanied by vulnerable young-at-foot, were over-represented in secure habitats. Large males, which were essentially immune to predation, occurred more often than expected in nutrient-rich habitat, and small males, which faced competing demands of predator avoidance and feeding, were intermediate between females and large males in their distribution across habitats. During the breeding season, females continued to be over-represented in secure habitats when their newly emerged pouch young were most vulnerable to predation. All males occupied these same habitats to maximize their chances of securing mates. Consistent with the social hypotheses, groups composed of individuals of the same sex, irrespective of body size, were over-represented in the population during the non-breeding season, while during the breeding season all males sought females so that mixed-sex groups predominated. These results indicate that body size and reproductive strategies are both important, yet independent, factors influencing segregation in western grey kangaroos.

The effect of leaving employment on mental health: testing ‘adaptation’ versus ‘sensitisation’ in a cohort of working-age Australians

Objectives To investigate the ‘adaptation’ versus ‘sensitisation’ hypotheses in relation to mental health and labour market transitions out of employment to determine whether mental health stabilised (adaptation) or worsened (sensitisation) as people experienced one or more periods without work. Methods The Household Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia (HILDA) longitudinal survey was used to investigate the relationship between the number of times a person had been unemployed or had periods out of the labour force (ie, spells without work) and the Mental Component Summary (MCS) of the Short Form 36 (SF-36). Demographic, health and employment related confounders were included in a series of multilevel regression models. Results During 2001–2010, 3362 people shifted into unemployment and 1105 shifted from employment to not in the labour force. Compared with participants who did not shift, there was a 1.64-point decline (95% CI −2.05 to −1.23, p<0.001) in scores of the MCS SF-36 among those who had one spell of unemployment (excluding not in the labour force), and a 2.56-point decline (95% CI −3.93 to −1.19, p<0.001) among those who had two or more spells of unemployment after adjusting for other variables. Findings for shifts from employment to ‘not in the labour force’ were in the same direction; however, effect sizes were smaller. Conclusions These results indicate that multiple spells of unemployment are associated with continued, though small, declines in mental health. Those who leave employment for reasons other than unemployment experience a smaller reduction in mental health.

Testing hypotheses about the function of repeated nest abandonment as a life history strategy in a passerine bird

Nest structures are essential for successful reproduction in most bird species. Nest construction costs time and energy, and most bird species typically build one nest per breeding attempt. Some species, however, build more than one nest, and the reason for this behaviour is often unclear. In the Grey Fantail Rhipidura albiscapa, nest abandonment before egg-laying is very common. Fantails will build up to seven nests within a breeding season, and pairs abandon up to 71% of their nests before egg-laying. We describe multiple nest-building behaviour in the Grey Fantail and test four hypotheses explaining nest abandonment in this species: cryptic depredation, destruction of nests during storm events, and two anti-predatory responses (construction of decoy nests to confuse predators, and increasing concealment to 'hide' nests more effectively). We found support for only one hypothesis - that abandonment is related to nest concealment. Abandoned nests were significantly less concealed than nests that received eggs. Most abandoned nests were not completely built and none received eggs, thus ruling out cryptic predation. Nests were not more likely to be abandoned following storm events. The decoy nest hypothesis was refuted as abandoned nests were constructed at any point during the breeding season and some nests were dismantled and the material used to build the subsequent nest. Thus, Grey Fantails are flexible about nest-site locations during the nest-building phase and readily abandon nest locations if they are found to have deficient security.

Effect of thermomechanical parameters on the critical strain for ultrafine ferrite formation through hot torsion testing

A C–Mn–V steel was used to study ultrafine ferrite formation (1–3 μm) through dynamic strain-induced transformation (DSIT) using hot torsion experiments. A systematic study determined the critical strain for the start of DSIT (C,DSIT), although this may not lead to a fully ultrafine microstructure. Therefore, the strain to produce an ultrafine ferrite (UFF) as final microstructure (C,UFF) during deformation was also determined. In addition, the effect of thermomechanical parameters such as deformation temperature, prior austenite grain size, strain rate and cooling rate on C,DSIT and C,UFF has been evaluated. DSIT ferrite nucleated on prior austenite grain boundaries at an early stage of straining followed by intragranular nucleation at higher strains. The prior austenite grain size affected the distribution of DSIT ferrite nucleation sites at an early stage of transformation and the subsequent coarsening behaviour of the grain boundary and intragranular ferrite grains during post-deformation cooling. Also, C,DSIT and C,UFF increased with an increase in the prior austenite grain size and deformation temperature. The post-deformation cooling had a strong effect not only on C,UFF but also the UFF microstructure (i.e. final ferrite grain size and second phase characteristics).

A rapid test for heroin (3,6-Diacetylmorphine) based on two chemiluminescence reactions

A rapid method for screening drug seizure samples for 3,6-diacetylmorphine (heroin), which consists of a simple hydrolysis procedure and flow-injection analysis with two chemiluminescence reagents, is described. Before hydrolysis, 3,6-diacetylmorphine evokes an intense response with a tris(2,2'-bipyridyl)ruthenium(III) reagent (prepared by dissolving the perchlorate salt in acetonitrile), and a relatively weak chemiluminescence response with a second reagent: potassium permanganate in an aqueous acidic polyphosphate solution. However, the permanganate reagent is extremely sensitive toward the hydrolysis products of 3,6-diacetylmorphine (i.e., 6-monoacetylmorphine and morphine). Some compounds commonly found in drug laboratories may cause false positives with tris(2,2'-bipyridyl)ruthenium(III), but do not produce the markedly increased response with the permanganate reagent after the hydrolysis procedure. The combination of these two tests therefore provides an effective presumptive test for the presence of 3,6-diacetylmorphine, which we have verified with 14 samples obtained from a forensic science laboratory.

Effect of process variables on formation of dynamic strain induced ultrafine ferrite during hot torsion testing

Ultrafine grain sizes were produced using hot torsion testing of a 0.11C-1.68Mn-0.20Si (wt-%) steel, with ultrafine ferrite (<1 µm) nucleating intragranularly during testing by dynamic strain induced transformation. A systematic study was made of the effect of isothermal deformation temperature, strain level, strain rate, and accelerated cooling during deformation on the formation of ultrafine ferrite by this process. Decreasing the isothermal testing temperature below the Ae₃ temperature led to a greater driving force for ferrite nucleation and thus more extensive nucleation during testing; the formation of Widmanstätten ferrite prior to, or early during, deformation imposed a lower temperature limit. Increasing the strain above that where ferrite first began 0.8 at 675C and a strain rate of 3 s¯¹ increased the intragranular nucleation of ferrite. Strain rate appeared to have little effect on the amount of ferrite formed. However, slower strain rates led to extensive polygonisation of the ferrite formed because more time was available for ferrite recovery. Accelerated cooling during deformation followed by air cooling to room temperature led to a uniform microstructure consisting of very fine ferrite grains and fine spherical carbides located in the grain boundaries regions. Air cooling after isothermal testing led to carbide bands and a larger ferrite grain size.

Increased blood pressure later in life may be associated with perinatal n-3 fatty acid deficiency

Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease. Previous work in both animals and humans with high blood pressure has demonstrated the antihypertensive effects of n−3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), although it is not known whether these nutrients are effective in preventing hypertension. The predominant n−3 PUFA in the mammalian nervous system, docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), is deposited into synaptic membranes at a high rate during the perinatal period, and recent observations indicate that the perinatal environment is important for the normal development of blood pressure control. This study investigated the importance of perinatal n−3 PUFA supply in the control of blood pressure in adult Sprague-Dawley rats. Pregnant rat dams were fed semisynthetic diets that were either deficient in (DEF) or supplemented with (CON) n−3 PUFA. Offspring were fed the same diets as their mothers until 9 wk; then, half of the rats from each group were crossed over to the opposite diet, creating four groups, i.e., CON-CON; CON-DEF; DEF-DEF, DEF-CON. Mean arterial blood pressures (MAP) were measured directly, at 33 wk of age, by cannulation of the femoral artery. The phospholipid fatty acid profile of the hypothalamic region was determined by capillary gas-liquid chromatography. The tissue phospholipid fatty acid profile reflected the diet that the rats were consuming at the time of testing. Both groups receiving DEF after 9 wk of age (i.e., DEF-DEF and CON-DEF) had similar profiles with a reduction in DHA levels of 30%, compared with rats receiving CON (i.e., CON-CON and DEF-CON). DEF-DEF rats had significantly raised MAP compared with all other groups, with differences as great as 17 mm Hg. DEF-CON rats had raised MAP compared with CON-CON rats, and DEF-DEF rats had higher MAP than CON-DEF rats, despite the fact that their respective fatty acid profiles were not different. These findings indicate that inadequate levels of DHA in the perinatal period are associated with altered blood pressure control in later life. The way in which these long-term effects are produced remains to be elucidated.

Investigation of the factors responsible for the superior performance of male students in standardised testing at one primary school

The project set out to investigate one primary school where, for four years or more, boys have outperformed girls in standardized Year 3 and 5 Basic Skills Tests in literacy and numeracy, which contradicts general findings on male and female performance in standardized literacy and numeracy testing. The school placed a heavy emphasis on literacy programs, which appear to be making a difference to the boys. Over time, there has been a slight improvement in boys’ literacy performance but the greatest area of growth is generally boys’ numeracy, rather than boys’ literacy.

Further aims of the study were to isolate school-based factors, which are potentially responsible for this phenomenon, from community-based factors and to explore the possibility that, rather than boys being advantaged, girls were actually being disadvantaged by practices at the school. The approach adopted by the research team employed intensive case-study methods and ethnographic approaches, including interviews, document analysis, and structured and unstructured observation of a range of school activities.

This paper describes how the school has transformed itself, the effects that this has had upon the teaching and learning environment and the results that have been achieved in the key areas of numeracy and literacy.

Use of a decision aid for prenatal testing of fetal abnormalities to improve women's informed decision making: a cluster randomised controlled trial [ISRCTN22532458]

Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of a decision aid for prenatal testing of fetal abnormalities compared with a pamphlet in supporting women's decision making.
Design A cluster randomised controlled trial.
Setting Primary health care.
Population Women in early pregnancy consulting a GP.
Methods GPs were randomised to provide women with either a decision aid or a pamphlet. The decision aid was a 24-page booklet designed using the Ottowa Decision Framework. The pamphlet was an existing resource available in the trial setting.
Main outcome measures Validated scales were used to measure the primary outcomes, informed choice and decisional conflict, and the secondary outcomes, anxiety, depression, attitudes to the pregnancy/fetus and acceptability of the resource. Outcomes were measured at 14 weeks of gestation from questionnaires that women completed and returned by post.
Findings Women in the intervention group were more likely to make an informed decision 76% (126/165) than those in the control group 65% (107/165) (adjusted OR 2.08; 95% CI 1.14–3.81). A greater proportion of women in the intervention group 88% (147/167) had a 'good' level of knowledge than those in the control group 72% (123/171) (adjusted OR 3.43; 95% CI 1.79–6.58). Mean (SD) decisional conflict scores were low in both groups, decision aid 1.71 (0.49), pamphlet 1.65 (0.55) (adjusted mean difference 0.10; 95% CI −0.02 to 0.22). There was no strong evidence of differences between the trial arms in the measures of psychological or acceptability outcomes.
Conclusion A tailored prenatal testing decision aid plays an important role in improving women's knowledge of first and second trimester screening tests and assisting them to make decisions about screening and diagnostic tests that are consistent with their values.

Robust correctness testing for digital forensic tools

In previous work, the authors presented a theoretical lower bound on the required number of testing runs for performance testing of digital forensic tools. We also demonstrated a practical method of testing showing how to tolerate both measurement and random errors in order to achieve results close to this bound. In this paper, we extend the previous work to the situation of correctness testing. The contribution of this methodology enables the tester to achieve correctness testing results of high quality from a manageable number of observations and in a dynamic but controllable way. This is of particular interest to forensic testers who do not have access to sophisticated equipment and who can allocate only a small amount of time to testing.