Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

Development of regional production areas in a changing climate: a case study of Gippsland, Australia

Increased global demand for agricultural production is being driven, in particular, by the rising middle class in the Asia-Pacific geo-region. The significant role of natural resource-based industries, especially agriculture, in the development of non-metropolitan regions is again being recognised. In this context, this article describes a spatial analysis approach to agricultural development based on the development of Production Areas (PAs) in regional/rural economies. PAs are spatial units within regions selected for the intensive sustainable development of agriculture (including forestry, agro-forestry and bio-energy), their associated activities and underpinning infrastructure. A case study in a resource-based region in Australia—Gippsland – explains the approach. This is informed by the eco-economy model of endogenous regional/rural development, which addresses the links between novel co-production and consumption networks. The methodology for the identification and analysis of PAs has, at its core, Land Suitability Analyses of those agricultural commodities currently cultivated in the region and those that could be grown in future climates. The use of GIS enables us to overlay and analyse several constraints (e.g. flood erosion and salinity risk) and resources (e.g. water and transport) to define PAs and the available land within each of them. The approach is further illustrated by focusing in one PA—Macalister, an irrigated dairy production area where recent dry climatic conditions caused a substantial decline in water resources. Key elements for the sustainable development of this PA are outlined including construction of Blue-Green Infrastructure. Comments on the approach and the need for strategic long-term planning concludes the article.

Sir John Crawford: agriculture and trade

Sir John Grenfell Crawford was one of the most significant of the seven dwarfs – the group of diminutive senior Commonwealth public servants active in the period from the 1940s to the 1960s. Agriculture and trade, the two issues with which Crawford engaged as a Commonwealth public servant, were closely connected. In 1948–49, immediately before Crawford was appointed secretary of the Department of Commerce and Agriculture, agricultural commodities still amounted to 85 per cent of Australia’s exports. Moreover, wool alone made up between 40 and 50 per cent of the total in the 1940s and 1950s

Agricultural supply response in Fiji

This article presents supply elasticities for 10 major food crops produced and consumed in Fiji. The estimates were derived from a stated-intention survey of rural households. The results appear to be consistent with the dual nature of Fiji’s agricultural sector and show that agricultural supply response is own-price elastic for the commodities analysed.

Mapping land use in a large agricultural basin : a comparison between classification techniques

In order to facilitate the better management of river basin resources, the Glenelg-Hopkins region in south-east Australia required an accurate and up to date land use map. Land use has a major impact on Australia's natural resources including its soil, water, flora and fauna and plays a major role in determining basin health. Inappropriate land use and practices have contributed to extensive dryland salinity and water quality problems. Land use data is often required for environmental models and in most cases the reliability of model outputs is dependent on the spatial detail and accuracy of the land use mapping. This paper examines methods to obtain an up to date land use map and a detailed accuracy assessment using Landsat ETM+ data for a regional basin. A multi-source based approach allowed the collection of 4817 ground truth data points from the field investigation. This enabled researchers to (i) incorporate a full range of information into digital image analysis with significant improvements in accuracy and (ii) hold sufficient independent references for an accurate error assessment. Classification accuracy was significantly improved using a stratification design, in which the region is sub-divided into smaller homogenous areas as opposed to a full scene classification technique. The overall classification accuracy was 84% (KHAT= 0.833) for the stratified approach compared to 76% (KHAT= 0.743) for the full scene classification. Effective assessment, planning and management of basins are dependent on a sound knowledge of the distribution and variability of land use.

Nest-tree selection by the threatened brush-tailed phascogale (phascogale tapoatafa) (marsupialia: dasyuridae) in a highly fragmented agricultural landscape

The conservation of roosting and nesting resources is of critical concern for many hollow-dependent species around the world. We investigated the nest-tree requirements of the threatened brush-tailed phascogale (Phascogale tapoatafa) in a highly cleared agricultural landscape in south-eastern Australia. We documented the physical characteristics of selected nest trees and describe the spatial and temporal patterns of nest-tree use as revealed by radio-tracking. Nine phascogales (seven females, two males) were radio-tracked between March and July 1999 in an area where most woodland habitat is confined to linear strips along roads and streams or small patches and scattered trees in cleared farmland. Female phascogales were monitored for 13–35 days over periods of 5–15 weeks and two males were monitored for 2 and 9 days respectively. A total of 185 nest-tree fixes was collected and all nests occupied by phascogales were in standing trees. Eighty-three nest trees were identified, ranging in diameter at breast height (dbh) from 25 to 171 cm, with a mean dbh for the trees used by each individual phascogale of >80 cm. Phascogales did not discriminate between canopy tree species in selecting nest trees, but showed highly significant selection for trees in the largest size class. All individuals used multiple nest trees, with the seven females occupying an average of 11.4 nest trees from a mean of 25 diurnal locations. The number of nest trees continued to increase throughout the study, suggesting that more would be identified during a longer or more intensive study. Occupied nest trees were located throughout each individual’s home range, highlighting the importance of a continuous spatial distribution of suitable nest trees across the landscape. Nest trees were also located in adjacent farmland up to 225 m from roadside vegetation, demonstrating the value that scattered clumps and even single trees in farmland can have for wildlife conservation.

Factors affecting patch occupancy by the white-browed treecreeper Climacteris Affinis in an agricultural landscape in north-west Victoria, Australia

The survival of habitat-dependent fauna within agricultural mosaics depends on their ability to occupy remnant habitat patches and move through the modified landscape. In north-west Victoria, Australia, less than 10% of the pre-European extent of Selah Casuarina pauper woodland remains intact due to agricultural development. The White-browed Treecreeper Climacteris affinis, is a small, insectivorous passerine that, in this region, preferentially inhabits Selah woodland. To assess the ability of C. affinis to persist in an agricultural landscape, 30 woodland sites in the Millewa landscape (34°30'S, 141°30'E) were surveyed, and patterns of patch occupancy used to examine the influence of spatial characteristics, landscape context and grazing by stock on the suitability of remnants as C. affinis habitat. Sites occupied by C. affinis were larger and less likely to be grazed by stock than vacant patches. The area-dependency of patch occupancy represents a step-threshold: C. affinis were not detected in remnants with less than 18.5 ha of Selah woodland but above this threshold, density was not correlated with patch area. Measures of patch isolation, the existence of linking linear "corridors" and tree density were not reliable indicators of patch occupancy. The presence of the species in remnants entirely surrounded by agricultural land suggests they are capable of crossing up to 450 m of cultivated land to prospect for habitat. The extensive network of linear vegetation and the numerous small remnants and scattered trees appear to facilitate movements of C. affinis in this landscape. Increasing the size of existing remnants, creating new habitat to expand the area of occupancy and maintaining landscape connectivity are priorities for the long-term management of this threatened species.

E-government: a possible solution to the problems of the agricultural input market in Bangladesh?

Although e-government offers unique opportunities for streamlining good governance, there remains considerable skepticism about its applicability in developing countries due to their lack of required level of infrastructural, technological, legal and human development. This paper argues that developing countries can introduce e-government practices by re-engineering their existing infrastructure rather than waiting for massive investments and perfect technological advancements. Using Bangladesh- a developing country- as an exemplar, this paper assesses the applicability and prospects of e-government practices in dealing with the problems in the agricultural input sector which is predominantly associated with poor, marginalised and semi-illiterate farmers. The utilization of the Bangladesh case study has important implications for examining and highlighting the probable introduction of e-government practices in developing countries.

Agricultural land retirement: lessons from an Australian case study

In this paper, we analyse the case for agricultural land retirement in Australia. For the case study considered, using defined criteria, we demonstrate that land retirement is an effective policy option. This finding depends crucially on the magnitude and sign of the price effect resulting from a fall in wool production because of agricultural land retirement. Uniquely in the literature, we argue that the price effect will positively contribute to a benefit–cost analysis of agricultural land retirement. We detail the necessary conditions that need to prevail for this to occur. We also explain why the expected benefits of land-use change are fewer than might be expected in the case study.