Analysing the transmission pattern within the framework of housing supply and monetary policy in Australia

Housing supply is one of important components of the housing sector. Compared with an increasingly strong housing demand, the growth rates of total housing stock in Australia have exhibited a downward trend since the end of the 1990s whilst the significant adjustments in the Australian monetary policy were being implemented. This research aims to estimate the nature of the relationship between housing supply and monetary policy by a vector error correction model. According to the empirical results, a transmission pattern comprised of the indicators associated with housing supply and monetary policy can be identified, which suggests that there is a significant interrelationship between monetary policy and the supply side of the housing sector in Australia.

New housing supply and residential construction costs in Australia : a panel ECM approach

The supply of new housing in Australia has been experiencing a low increase rate since the 1990s in conjunction with an increasingly strong housing demand. On the contrary, residential construction costs across Australia?s states maintained dramatic increases simultaneously. Economic theory suggests that new housing supply is correlated to the costs of residential constructions. However, few empirical studies have focused on examining this relationship for Australian housing markets. To comprehensively investigate the relationship between the supply of new housing and residential construction costs a function for new housing supply considering the effects of regional heterogeneities is introduced in this study. By estimating a panel error correction model (ECM) applicable for quantifying the correlation with regional heterogeneities, this research identifies that a causal link and a strong correlation exist in between new housing supply and residential construction costs in Australia.

Drought and desalination: Melbourne water supply and development choices in the twenty-first century

Sharply reduced catchment inflows across Australia around the end of the twentieth century led to a sequence of water restrictions followed, as the drought persisted, by approximately $10 billion of investments in desalination plants near Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. This Deakin University project jointly with Griffith University, for the National Centre of Excellence in Desalination (NCEDA), follows these new investments. We ask how best to manage bulk water supply and retail supply given the facts and fears of uncertain rainfall, modelled over a 100 year simulation period. We use Monte Carlo style studies aiming to capture the new tensions and trade-offs regarding uncertain climate, rainfall and water supply. There are presently no comprehensive life-cycle approaches to model city water balances that incorporate economic feedbacks, such as tariff adjustment, which can in turn create a financing capacity for such investment responses to low catchment levels, models that could provide significant policy implications for water planners. This project addresses the gap, and presents excerpts from a system dynamics model that augments the usual water utility representation of the physical linkages and water grids. We add inter-connected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity. Tariffs are reset in association with drought and the modelling of responses both in terms of reduced consumption and increased revenue to the utility, depending on the elasticities of demand responses to higher tariffs, both short and long term, while also allowing effects from any transitional restrictions. Before reporting on parts of the simulations applied to Melbourne, this paper will first review the general issues surrounding whether desalination is or can be a “game changer” for economic development that hinges on secure water supply. We then explore options in bulk water supply management when desalination augments the choices, including catchments, dams, recycling, pipelines from rivers and savings in irrigation. Finally, the paper addresses the intriguing and important question of the value and cost of providing water for environmental uses.

In situ growth of Soletellina alba (Bivalvia: Psammobiidae) in response to detrital supply and mouth status in a seasonally-closed estuary

The supply of detritus is an important food source for many soft-sediment invertebrates, but its importance for their growth and condition is rarely, if ever, tested directly using manipulative field experiments. Therefore, we designed such a study to: (1) test the importance of fine particulate organic matter for the growth and condition of the infaunal bivalve Soletellina alba; (2) indirectly test the feeding mode of S. alba, which has been assumed to be a deposit feeder like other members of the same superfamily (Tellinoidea); (3) compare growth rates across two summers with contrasting patterns of estuary mouth opening/closing; and (4) compare the condition of individuals used in two field studies (i.e. present versus past) and a past laboratory study. Neither growth nor condition differed when organic content of the sediments was varied, which suggests that S. alba is either a suspension feeder or capable of switching modes of feeding. There was considerable interannual variation in growth with greater growth occurring during the summer with a longer period of mouth opening. This suggests that periods of mouth closure may reduce secondary production within seasonally-closed estuaries. Potential artefacts associated with laboratory trials were also identified, with laboratory bivalves exhibiting poorer condition than those used in two field trials. The present study provides no evidence that variable quantities and qualities of organic matter within the sediments influence the growth and condition of S. alba, but future studies should focus on food supplied via the water column when the estuary is open versus closed.

Modeling the relationship between budget deficits, money supply and inflation in Fiji

For Fiji, which has been suffering persistent deficits since independence, determining the relationships between inflation, budget deficits, money supply, output, and import prices is essential. We find that inflation, deficits and money supply are cointegrated when inflation is the endogenous variable, and the long-run elasticities confirm that money supply and deficits induce inflation. While there is a short-run, unidirectional causality running from money supply to inflation and a bi-directional causality between money supply and budget deficits, in the long run both money supply and deficits ?Granger-cause? inflation.

Economic transition and commercial property markets : China and Poland

This paper discusses the economic transition and the property market emergence in transition economies. It compares the Chinese property market with the Polish market. It preliminarily examines market emergence and maturity in the context of economic transition, comparing the transitions with the emphasis placed on commercial property markets especially their formation and behaviour. Supply and demand for commercial space in China and Poland are also contrasted. As commercial property market behaviour is somewhat driven by market structure formation process and the business cycle, the transition has provided a “common ground” that enables similarities between the property markets in China and Poland. The challenge for state intervention is mainly due to the agency problem which is also a problem in mature markets; it appears that transitional economies do share common features in their emerging property markets. This paper suggests state intervention in market formation and emergence is necessary and essential. However the actual formation and behaviour of property markets have some distinctive characteristics. Value or implication of the study include: knowing the stage of market emergence is essential for making investment decisions, especially when identifying markets with varying backgrounds. This paper is also relevant to policy-makers in the process of facilitating transitions in emerging markets.

Will residential aged care facilities meet long-term demand?

Purpose – This paper aims to provide an invaluable insight into long-term forecasting of demand for aged care facilities. This will ensure the provision of adequate supply by government bodies, stakeholders and developers in order to meet the anticipated level of demand, without creating an over-supply or an under-supply scenario.

Design/methodology/approach – Using an innovative approach, different data sources were collectively used to forecast separate individual supply and demand levels, which were then examined together in order to measure the difference between the two variables between 2009-2020. A case study approach was used for Victoria, Australia.

Findings – The paper finds that, although there is excess supply between 2009-2010 and 2019-2020, the period between 2010 and 2019 will experience an under-supply period which cannot be easily rectified over the short term.

Research limitations/implications – The case study was limited to residential care facilities in Victoria, Australia, although some countries have substantially different age profiles and accommodation supply for older residents. Forecasts are based on information sources from various data suppliers and collectively analysed.

Practical implications – The results are also of direct interest to place managers and planning authorities who are charged with providing medium- and long-term visions and plans for specific locations. This type of research is essential when planning for the eventual aging of the population, where the methodology can be replicated in different areas. Most importantly, this research approach provides a solid basis for decisions regarding the supply of residential aged care facilities as opposed to a simple estimate.

Originality/value – The study adopted a unique approach to analysing the individual supply and demand components for aged care facilities over the long term. This approach is able to accurately determine when there will be an under-supply or over-supply situation and thus provide the opportunity to address the difference before it occurs. This will allow informed decisions about planning aged care facilities in the future to be made as required.

Strategies for bridging sectors and silos : a training model in mental health promotion

Issue addressed: The determinants of individual and community mental health and wellbeing are diverse and many lie outside the sphere of action of the health sector. Developing the confidence and skills of these other sectors to contribute to improved mental health has been identified as a priority at State and national levels that requires the development of specific workforce capacity-building strategies. Methods: VicHealth developed and implemented a two day short course to raise the capacity of organisations from a range of sectors to contribute to the mental health and wellbeing of communities. The model of this short course was constructed to reflect the diverse sectors targeted, which included health, local government, community arts, sport and recreation, justice, and education. Results: Evaluation of the two year pilot program, with more than 1,000 participants, has identified a high degree of satisfaction with the content and delivery model of the course, with clear changes in knowledge, skills and practice having been achieved. Cross-sector understanding and collaborations between participants increased as a result of the course. Conclusions: Continuing demand for the course demonstrates clearly that mental health and well-being is relevant to the core business of a broad range of community and professional organisations. The course has increased the confidence and capacity of these sector representatives to take action on mental health as well as increased cross-sector dialogue and partnerships. The recruitment of trainers from diverse sectors was successful in promoting a key component of the program, which was the message that mental health promotion should be the business of all sectors.

An agent-based approach to value theory and wealth distribution in economics

Any attempt to model an economy requires foundational assumptions about the relations between prices, values and the distribution of wealth. These assumptions exert a profound influence over the results of any model. Unfortunately, there are few areas in economics as vexed as the theory of value. I argue in this paper that the fundamental problem with past theories of value is that it is simply not possible to model the determination of value, the formation of prices and the distribution of income in a real economy with analytic mathematical models. All such attempts leave out crucial processes or make unrealistic assumptions which significantly affect the results. There have been two primary approaches to the theory of value. The first, associated with classical economists such as Ricardo and Marx were substance theories of value, which view value as a substance inherent in an object and which is conserved in exchange. For Marxists, the value of a commodity derives solely from the value of the labour power used to produce it - and therefore any profit is due to the exploitation of the workers. The labour theory of value has been discredited because of its assumption that labour was the only ‘factor’ that contributed to the creation of value, and because of its fundamentally circular argument. Neoclassical theorists argued that price was identical with value and was determined purely by the interaction of supply and demand. Value then, was completely subjective. Returns to labour (wages) and capital (profits) were determined solely by their marginal contribution to production, so that each factor received its just reward by definition. Problems with the neoclassical approach include assumptions concerning representative agents, perfect competition, perfect and costless information and contract enforcement, complete markets for credit and risk, aggregate production functions and infinite, smooth substitution between factors, distribution according to marginal products, firms always on the production possibility frontier and firms’ pricing decisions, ignoring money and credit, and perfectly rational agents with infinite computational capacity. Two critical areas include firstly, the underappreciated Sonnenschein-Mantel- Debreu results which showed that the foundational assumptions of the Walrasian general-equilibrium model imply arbitrary excess demand functions and therefore arbitrary equilibrium price sets. Secondly, in real economies, there is no equilibrium, only continuous change. Equilibrium is never reached because of constant changes in preferences and tastes; technological and organisational innovations; discoveries of new resources and new markets; inaccurate and evolving expectations of businesses, consumers, governments and speculators; changing demand for credit; the entry and exit of firms; the birth, learning, and death of citizens; changes in laws and government policies; imperfect information; generalized increasing returns to scale; random acts of impulse; weather and climate events; changes in disease patterns, and so on. The problem is not the use of mathematical modelling, but the kind of mathematical modelling used. Agent-based models (ABMs), objectoriented programming and greatly increased computer power however, are opening up a new frontier. Here a dynamic bargaining ABM is outlined as a basis for an alternative theory of value. A large but finite number of heterogeneous commodities and agents with differing degrees of market power are set in a spatial network. Returns to buyers and sellers are decided at each step in the value chain, and in each factor market, through the process of bargaining. Market power and its potential abuse against the poor and vulnerable are fundamental to how the bargaining dynamics play out. Ethics therefore lie at the very heart of economic analysis, the determination of prices and the distribution of wealth. The neoclassicals are right then that price is the enumeration of value at a particular time and place, but wrong to downplay the critical roles of bargaining, power and ethics in determining those same prices.

Investigating housing supply and monetary policy under global economic turbulence

This research has contributed to literature by identifying the impacts of monetary policy and global economic turbulence on the supply side of the housing sector under a vector error correction model. The research outcomes provided policy makers with an insight to change Australia's housing shortage and declining housing affordability.

Analysing the relationship between new housing supply and residential construction costs with the regional heterogeneities

New housing supply in Australia has been experiencing a low rate of increase in conjunction with a dramatic increase in residential construction costs since the 1990s. This study aims to estimate the relationship between new housing supply and residential construction costs with the regional heterogeneities. Based on a panel error correction model, it can be identified that there is a causal link as well as a significant correlation between new housing supply and construction costs in the Australian sub-national housing construction markets. The model developed in this research assists policy makers to better understand the nature of the supply side of the housing sector and then enact appropriate policies to improve the new housing supply in Australia.

Study of electrical usage and demand at the container terminal

The electrical usage and demand at container terminal were studied for two years. The results provide a technique for calculating the maximum demand at container terminal with a more accurate result, leading to a substantial saving both in capital cost for electrical infrastructure investment and ongoing electricity costs.

A clustered randomised trial examining the effect of social marketing and community mobilisation on the age of uptake and levels of alcohol consumption by Australian adolescents

Introduction
Throughout the world, alcohol consumption is common among adolescents. Adolescent alcohol use and misuse have prognostic significance for several adverse long-term outcomes, including alcohol problems, alcohol dependence, school disengagement and illicit drug use. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether randomisation to a community mobilisation and social marketing intervention reduces the proportion of adolescents who initiate alcohol use before the Australian legal age of 18, and the frequency and amount of underage adolescent alcohol consumption.
Method and analysis
The study comprises 14 communities matched with 14 non-contiguous communities on socioeconomic status (SES), location and size. One of each pair was randomly allocated to the intervention. Baseline levels of adolescent alcohol use were estimated through school surveys initiated in 2006 (N=8500). Community mobilisation and social marketing interventions were initiated in 2011 to reduce underage alcohol supply and demand. The setting is communities in three Australian states (Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia). Students (N=2576) will complete school surveys in year 8 in 2013 (average age 12). Primary outcomes: (1) lifetime initiation and (2) monthly frequency of alcohol use. Reports of social marketing and family and community alcohol supply sources will also be assessed. Point estimates with 95% CIs will be compared for student alcohol use in intervention and control communities. Changes from 2006 to 2013 will be examined; multilevel modelling will assess whether random assignment of communities to the intervention reduced 2013 alcohol use, after accounting for community level differences. Analyses will also assess whether exposure to social marketing activities increased the intervention target of reducing alcohol supply by parents and community members.