Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

A method for building community resilience to climate change in emerging coastal cities

Rapidly urbanising coastal locations represent prototypes of future cities. While these "sea change" locations will face a range of issues associated with rapid growth such as infrastructure provision and enhancement of social capital, anticipated environmental impacts are likely to add significant challenges. Climate change is likely to have dramatic impacts on sea change communities through diminished potable water supplies, rising sea levels, storm surges, and increased intensity of flood events - with indirect impacts on health, financial sectors, and biodiversity. Given the inherent diversity within sea change communities with regard to age, culture, and socio-economic status there are likely to be differences in ways of adapting, the ability to adapt, and the desired direction of any changes. Cognizant of the potential enormity of climate change impacts, the need for rapid responses, and the diversity within communities, this paper proposes a participatory and transformative method to work with communities in responding to climate change and variability within rapidly urbanising coastal locations. The method focuses on determining probable futures for various communities of place and interest within sea change areas and aims to build the capacity for dynamic on-going learning to achieve those futures, both within and between the communities. Through this process community members may be empowered with dynamic and future-orientated learning skills that build upon community knowledge, innovation, and resilience.

The breeding biology of the White-faced Storm Petrel (Pelagodroma marina) on Mud Islands, Port Phillip Bay, Victoria

The White-faced Storm Petrel (Pelagodroma marina) is restricted to three breeding colonies within Victoria: Mud Islands and South Channel Fort in Port Phillip Bay, and Tullaberga Island off Mallacoota. Numbers of these storm petrels breeding on Mud Islands have declined considerably since early last century. White-faced Storm Petrels were recorded on Mud Islands from early September 2002 until mid-March 2003 when the last chicks fledged. Eggs were laid from late October to early December, with chicks hatching in the later half of December. The mean incubation period was 51.7 days (± 3.2 days (s.d.), range = 38–53, n = 13), and may have been extended by periods of egg neglect. The mean nestling period was 54.8 days (± 4.4 days (s.d.), range 50–70, n = 21). Chick growth is described. Hatching success was 54% and fledging success was 77.8%, with overall breeding success being 42%. Burrow densities were found to be influenced by plant species, vegetation height and soil moisture. The position of the burrow within the colony was shown to influence breeding success, with those nearer the edge of the storm petrel colony, closer to the marsh, and further from a colony of Australian White (Threskiornis molucca) and Straw-necked (T. spinicollis) Ibis recording higher success.

Distribution and abundance of the white-faced storm petrel (Pelagodroma marina) in Victoria

Habitat loss and modification is a major factor driving reductions of seabird populations. The white-faced storm petrel (Pelagodroma marina) is restricted to three breeding colonies within Victoria: Mud Islands and South Channel Fort in Port Phillip Bay, and Tullaberga Island off Mallacoota. The numbers of storm petrels breeding on Mud Islands and South Channel Fort have declined considerably, possibly a result of the significant vegetation changes, together with increases in local populations of other species of birds, most notably, silver gulls (Larus novaehollandiae). On Mud Islands the breeding area available to the storm petrels appears to be limited by the recent arrival of the Australian white ibis (Threskoirnis molucca), and straw-necked ibis (T. spinicollis) which now breed on the islands in large numbers (approximately 15,000 pairs). The impact of these changes on the storm petrels is poorly understood. The current status of storm petrels at Tullaberga Island is unknown. This study estimated the size of the breeding population at all three sites by determining burrow densities, and a burrow-scope was used to determine occupancy. Burrow density was found to be related to vegetation type and other habitat factors. This study has highlighted important information on the breeding habitat of the white-faced storm petrel and the implications for management are discussed.

The outlier phenomenon in entrepreneurship and economic growth : mollycoddling policies create New Zealand’s perfect storm

Analyzing GEM 2005 data, we confirm that entrepreneurship and economic development form a U-shaped curve. We seek to understand New Zealand’s large deviation from the modeled curve by factor-analyzing all countries’ deviations from the curve. We make recommendations that would move New Zealand toward the trend line and thus aid in increasing its level of economic development. Our findings indicate that measures that overprotect workers, spoil incentives, or indulge welfare passivity can stymie economic growth even in conditions of high entrepreneurial activity.

New Zealand's perfect storm of entrepreneurship and economic development

Applying a grounded-theory approach to analyzing the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data, we attempt to explain why New Zealand exhibits only a moderate level of economic development despite its high level of entrepreneurship. By statistically analyzing why 34 other countries in the 2005 GEM dataset exhibit small deviations from the classical quadratic curvilinear relationship between entrepreneurship and economic development, we develop a better understanding of the entrepreneurial framework conditions underlying New Zealand’s large deviation from this trend line. Based on our findings from the GEM data we make policy recommendations that could aid in moving New Zealand (and other countries) closer toward the trend line and thus promote economic development.

Calm before the storm?

Dwindling school enrolments in the years ahead will impede progress toward the Bradley attainment target, new modelling suggests.