Stochastic models of road geometry and wind condition for vehicle energy management and control

Modeling and simulation is commonly used to improve vehicle performance, to optimize vehicle system design, and to reduce vehicle development time. Vehicle performances can be affected by environmental conditions and driver behavior factors, which are often uncertain and immeasurable. To incorporate the role of environmental conditions in the modeling and simulation of vehicle systems, both real and artificial data are used. Often, real data are unavailable or inadequate for extensive investigations. Hence, it is important to be able to construct artificial environmental data whose characteristics resemble those of the real data for modeling and simulation purposes. However, to produce credible vehicle simulation results, the simulated environment must be realistic and validated using accepted practices. This paper proposes a stochastic model that is capable of creating artificial environmental factors such as road geometry and wind conditions. In addition, road geometric design principles are employed to modify the created road data, making it consistent with the real-road geometry. Two sets of real-road geometry and wind condition data are employed to propose probability models. To justify the distribution goodness of fit, Pearson's chi-square and correlation statistics have been used. Finally, the stochastic models of road geometry and wind conditions (SMRWs) are developed to produce realistic road and wind data. SMRW can be used to predict vehicle performance, energy management, and control strategies over multiple driving cycles and to assist in developing fuel-efficient vehicles.

Deterministic versus stochastic quantitative microbial Risk Assessment models for wastewater irrigation of food crops

Reuse of wastewater to irrigate food crops is being practiced in many parts of the world and is becoming more commonplace as the competition for, and stresses on, freshwater resources intensify. But there are risks associated with wastewater irrigation, including the possibility of transmission of pathogens causing infectious disease, to both workers in the field and to consumers buying and eating produce irrigated with wastewater. To manage these risks appropriately we need objective and quantitative estimates of them. This is typically achieved through one of two modelling approaches: deterministic or stochastic. Each parameter in a deterministic model is represented by a single value, whereas in stochastic models probability functions are used. Stochastic models are theoretically superior because they account for variability and uncertainty, but they are computationally demanding and not readily accessible to water resource and public health managers. We constructed models to estimate risk of enteric virus infection arising from the consumption of wastewater-irrigated horticultural crops (broccoli, cucumber and lettuce), and compared the resultant levels of risk between the deterministic and stochastic approaches. Several scenarios were tested for each crop, accounting for different concentrations of enteric viruses and different lengths of environmental exposure (i.e. the time between the last irrigation event and harvest, when the viruses are liable to decay or inactivation). In most situations modelled the two approaches yielded similar estimates of risk (within 1 order-of-magnitude). The two methods diverged most markedly, up to around 2 orders-of-magnitude, when there was large uncertainty associated with the estimate of virus concentration and the exposure period was short (1 day). Therefore, in some circumstances deterministic modelling may offer water resource managers a pragmatic alternative to stochastic modelling, but its usefulness as a surrogate will depend upon the level of uncertainty in the model parameters.

Evaluation of three daily rainfall generation models for SWAT

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrologic model that was developed to predict the long-term impacts of land use change on the water balance of large catchments. Stochastic models are used to generate the daily rainfall sequences needed to conduct long-term, continuous simulations with SWAT. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performances of three daily rainfall generation models. The models evaluated were the modified Daily and Monthly Mixed (DMMm) model, skewed normal distribution (SKWD) model and modified exponential distribution (EXPD) model. The study area was the Woady Yaloak River catchment (306 km2) located in southwest Victoria, Australia. The models were assessed on their ability to preserve annual, monthly and daily statistical characteristics of the historical rainfall and runoff. The mean annual, monthly, and daily rainfall was preserved satisfactorily by the models. The DMMm model reproduced the standard deviation of annual and monthly rainfall better than the SKWD and EXPD models. Overall, the DMMm model performed marginally better than the SKWD model at reproducing the statistical characteristics of the historical rainfall record at the various time scales. The performance of the EXPD model was found to be inferior to the performances of the DMMm and SKWD models. The models reproduced the mean annual, monthly, and daily runoff relatively well, although the DMMm and SKWD models were found to preserve these statistics marginally better than the EXPD model. None of the models managed to reproduce the standard deviation of annual, monthly, and daily runoff adequately.

A computational framework for uncertainty integration in stochastic unit commitment with intermittent renewable energy sources

The penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (IRESs) into power grids has increased in the last decade. Integration of wind farms and solar systems as the major IRESs have significantly boosted the level of uncertainty in operation of power systems. This paper proposes a comprehensive computational framework for quantification and integration of uncertainties in distributed power systems (DPSs) with IRESs. Different sources of uncertainties in DPSs such as electrical load, wind and solar power forecasts and generator outages are covered by the proposed framework. Load forecast uncertainty is assumed to follow a normal distribution. Wind and solar forecast are implemented by a list of prediction intervals (PIs) ranging from 5% to 95%. Their uncertainties are further represented as scenarios using a scenario generation method. Generator outage uncertainty is modeled as discrete scenarios. The integrated uncertainties are further incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problem and a heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve this stochastic SCUC problem. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are implemented. Generation costs as well as different reserve strategies are discussed from the perspectives of system economics and reliability. Comparative results indicate that the planned generation costs and reserves are different from the realized ones. The stochastic models show better robustness than deterministic ones. Power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours.

Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: a comparative study

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones.

Policy recognition in the Abstract Hidden Markov Model

In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem on-line plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process representing the execution of the agent's plan. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. In terms of probabilistic inference, we introduce the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM), a novel type of stochastic processes, provide its dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) structure and analyse the properties of this network. We then describe an application of the Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filter to the AHMM which allows us to construct an efficient, hybrid inference method for this model. In terms of plan recognition, we propose a novel plan recognition framework based on the AHMM as the plan execution model. The Rao-Blackwellised hybrid inference for AHMM can take advantage of the independence properties inherent in a model of plan execution, leading to an algorithm for online probabilistic plan recognition that scales well with the number of levels in the plan hierarchy. This illustrates that while stochastic models for plan execution can be complex, they exhibit special structures which, if exploited, can lead to efficient plan recognition algorithms. We demonstrate the usefulness of the AHMM framework via a behaviour recognition system in a complex spatial environment using distributed video surveillance data.

The effect of chromate on the pitting susceptibility of AA7075-T651 studied using potentiostatic transients

The effect of chromate on metastable pitting of AA7075-T651 as determined via potentiostatic polarisation is reported. A systematic study of metastable pitting and its correlation with stable pits was conducted in various concentrations of sodium chromate (Na2CrO4), revealing the metastable pitting rate was able to provide a quantitative metric for pitting corrosion. The size and number of metastable pits decreased significantly in the presence of chromate. The present study is intended as a general baseline for the assessment of future chromate replacement technologies, as elaborated herein. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Stochastic optimization models for energy management in carbonization process of carbon fiber production

Industrial producers face the task of optimizing production process in an attempt to achieve the desired quality such as mechanical properties with the lowest energy consumption. In industrial carbon fiber production, the fibers are processed in bundles containing (batches) several thousand filaments and consequently the energy optimization will be a stochastic process as it involves uncertainty, imprecision or randomness. This paper presents a stochastic optimization model to reduce energy consumption a given range of desired mechanical properties. Several processing condition sets are developed and for each set of conditions, 50 samples of fiber are analyzed for their tensile strength and modulus. The energy consumption during production of the samples is carefully monitored on the processing equipment. Then, five standard distribution functions are examined to determine those which can best describe the distribution of mechanical properties of filaments. To verify the distribution goodness of fit and correlation statistics, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is used. In order to estimate the selected distribution (Weibull) parameters, the maximum likelihood, least square and genetic algorithm methods are compared. An array of factors including the sample size, the confidence level, and relative error of estimated parameters are used for evaluating the tensile strength and modulus properties. The energy consumption and N2 gas cost are modeled by Convex Hull method. Finally, in order to optimize the carbon fiber production quality and its energy consumption and total cost, mixed integer linear programming is utilized. The results show that using the stochastic optimization models, we are able to predict the production quality in a given range and minimize the energy consumption of its industrial process.

Possibilities to include in numerical simulation stochastic and discontinuous phenomena occurring in material

Simulation of materials processing has to face new difficulties regarding proper description of various discontinuous and stochastic phenomena occurring in materials. Commonly used rheological models based on differential equations treat material as continuum and are unable to describe properly several important phenomena. That is the reason for ongoing search for alternative models, which can account for non-continuous structure of the materials and for the fact, that various phenomena in the materials occur in different scales from nano to mezo. Accounting for the stochastic character of some phenomena is an additional challenge. One of the solutions may be the coupled Cellular Automata (CA) – Finite Element (FE) multi scale model. A detailed discussion about the advantages given by the developed multi scale CAFE model for strain localization phenomena in contrast to capabilities provided by the conventional FE approaches is a subject of this work. Results obtained from the CAFE model are supported by the experimental observations showing influence of many discontinuities existing in the real material on macroscopic response. An immense capabilities of the CAFE approach in comparison to limitations of the FE method for modeling of real material behavior is are shown this work as well.

Optimising discrete event simulation models using a reinforcement learning agent

A reinforcement learning agent has been developed to determine optimal operating policies in a multi-part serial line. The agent interacts with a discrete event simulation model of a stochastic production facility. This study identifies issues important to the simulation developer who wishes to optimise a complex simulation or develop a robust operating policy. Critical parameters pertinent to 'tuning' an agent quickly and enabling it to rapidly learn the system were investigated.

Modelling the linkages between the Australian and G7 stock markets : common stochastic trends and regime shifts

This paper examines whether the Australian equity market is integrated with the equity markets of the G7 economies by applying both the Johansen (Statistical analysis of conintegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54, 1988) and Gregory and Hansen (Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126, 1996) approaches to cointegration. Some evidence of a pairwise long-run relationship between the Australian stock market and the stock markets of Canada, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom is found, but the Australian equity market is not pairwise cointegrated with the equity markets of France, Germany or the USA.

A stochastic time-domain model for burst data aggregation in IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks

In many network applications, the nature of traffic is of burst type. Often, the transient response of network to such traffics is the result of a series of interdependant events whose occurrence prediction is not a trivial task. The previous efforts in IEEE 802.15.4 networks often followed top-down approaches to model those sequences of events, i.e., through making top-view models of the whole network, they tried to track the transient response of network to burst packet arrivals. The problem with such approaches was that they were unable to give station-level views of network response and were usually complex. In this paper, we propose a non-stationary analytical model for the IEEE 802.15.4 slotted CSMA/CA medium access control (MAC) protocol under burst traffic arrival assumption and without the optional acknowledgements. We develop a station-level stochastic time-domain method from which the network-level metrics are extracted. Our bottom-up approach makes finding station-level details such as delay, collision and failure distributions possible. Moreover, network-level metrics like the average packet loss or transmission success rate can be extracted from the model. Compared to the previous models, our model is proven to be of lower memory and computational complexity order and also supports contention window sizes of greater than one. We have carried out extensive and comparative simulations to show the high accuracy of our model.