Multivariate modelling of landuse on in-stream salinity over multiple spatial scales

An impediment to sustainable dryland salinity management is the lack of information on contributing factors. GIS and satellite imagery now offer a cost-effective means of generating relevant land and water resource information for integrated regional management of salinity. In this paper the relationships between patterns in land uselcover distribution and base flow salt concentration in streams (indicated by EC) are investigated and modelled. The Glenelg-Hopkins area is a large regional watershed in southwest Victoria, Australia, covering approximately 2.6 million ha. It is currently estimated that 27,400 ha of land is affected by dryland salinity and this is predicted to rapidly increase in the next decade' if current conditions prevail. Salt concentration data from five gauging stations were analysed with multi-temporal land use maps obtained from satellite imagery. Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that the variables Native Vegetation and Dry/and Grain Cropping were the most significant influences on in~stream salinity in the whole catchment (1=88.9%) and 500 m V=88.3%) and 100 m riparian buffers (1=86.9%) during times of base flow. The implications for future land use planning, effectiveness of riparian zones and revegetation programmes is discussed. This work also demonstrates the utility of applying nmltivariate statistical analyses, spatial statistics, and remote sensing with data integrated in a GIS framework for the purpose of predicting and managing the regional salinity threat.

Using fractal geometry to make rapid field measurements of riverbed topography at ecologically useful spatial scales

A method is described for making rapid in situ field measurements of riverbed topography over spatial scales of ≅1–10 m. This method uses rolling balls to make quick, accurate measurements of river-bed roughness at several spatial scales. Random sampling and replication generate multiple estimates of the fractal dimension (d) that can be used to test for significant differences in the complexity of riverbed architecture between habitat types and spatial scales.

An integrated study of the temporal and spatial variation in the supply of propagules, recruitment and assemblages of intertidal macroalgae on a wave-exposed rocky coast, Victoria, Australia

Recruitment is known to influence distributions and abundances of benthic marine organisms. It is therefore important to document patterns of variability in recruitment and how these relate to patterns in established assemblages. This study provides an integrated assessment of the temporal and spatial variation in supply and recruitment of propagules and established populations of several macroalgae. Propagules in water samples from two stages of the incoming tide, recruitment to artificial substrata and percentage cover of species established on the shore were recorded every 2 months from December 1994 to October 1995, in two zones of an intertidal, wave-exposed rocky shore. Variability in recruitment was measured at three spatial scales: 10s cm, 100s cm and 100s m. Availability and recruitment of most taxa were greatest between April and August, although many species had available propagules and recruited throughout the year. Temporal variation in the established assemblages was, however, more species-specific. Differences in established assemblages between zones were reflected in differences in availability and recruitment of propagules between zones. Recruitment could not be predicted directly from supply of propagules, but the two processes were linked. For most species, the greatest variation in recruitment occurred at the smallest spatial scale of 10s cm, although there was also considerable large-scale (between site) variation in recruitment of several species. Results indicate that while pre-and post-settlement mortality are likely to influence macroalgal distribution and abundance, the temporal and spatial variability in supply and recruitment of propagules can explain much of the patchiness in macroalgal assemblages.

Distribution and habitat requirements of the Yellow-Footed Antechinus Antechinus flavipes at multiple scales: a review

This review synthesises present knowledge of the distribution patterns and habitat requirements of the Yellow-footed Antechinus Antechinus flavipes. Factors influencing the distribution of A. flavipes are examined at several spatial scales ranging from the broad climatic conditions prevalent over the species’ entire range to the characteristics of nest sites used by individual animals. Analysis of the literature suggests that: 1) at the broad-scale, A. flavipes distribution is largely determined by warm, dry climatic conditions, the distribution of dry forests and woodlands and competition with closely related species; 2) at the landscape-scale the determinants of A. flavipes distribution are largely unknown, although initial investigations suggest some tolerance of fragmented landscapes; and 3) at a local-scale the distribution of A. flavipes is largely determined by the presence of large diameter trees, tree hollows, coarse woody debris, rocky crevices and leaf-litter. Directions for future research are suggested throughout the review.

Spatial patterns of a southern bell frog litoria raniformis population in an agricultural landscape

We investigated changes in the spatial organization of individuals within a population of endangered Southern Bell Frogs Litoria raniformis over an eight-month period. Our results identified strong temporal changes in both spatial organization and the apparent location of L. raniformis within the study site. Ripley's K Function analyses showed that the position of individuals relative to one another shifted from random immediately after the study site was flooded (p < 0.005), to strongly clustered at spatial scales between 0-1 500 m during the peak breeding period (p < 0.005). The majority of flooded areas were dry by April and May and individuals again became aggregated within the remaining waterbodies.

Spatial ecology of a root parasite : from pattern to process

Occurrence patterns of parasitic plants are constrained by the distribution of suitable hosts and movement patterns of seed vectors and, accordingly, represent a simplified system to study many aspects of spatial ecology and determinants of distribution. Previous work has focused on the aerially hemiparasitic mistletoes, and it is unclear whether root parasites are affected by similar factors. Here, we evaluate spatial patterns in the root parasitic Santalum lanceolatum in an arid shrubland in north-western New South Wales, central Australia. In this region, the principal host is a long-lived nitrogen fixing shrub Acacia tetragonophylla closely associated with ephemeral creek-lines. The location of 765 individuals of both species was mapped along a 250-m section of creek-line using a total survey station, and occurrence patterns of the root parasite related to host distribution and landscape context. We used Ripley's K-function and the O-ring statistic to determine whether the distribution of S. lanceolatum was random, aggregated or regular; the spatial scales at which these patterns occurred; and to quantify any spatial associations between the parasite and its host, A. tetragonophylla. While acacias were closely associated with the creek-line, S. lanceolatum plants were more tightly clustered, displaying significant clustering at two spatial scales (1.2 m and 8.8 m). We suggest that host quality may act as an important constraint, with only those acacias growing in or near the creek-line being physiologically capable of supporting a parasite to maturity. Insights gained from spatial analysis are used to guide ongoing research in this system, and highlight the utility of the O-ring statistic for understanding patterns of distribution affected by multiple processes operating at critical scales.

Orientation integration in detection and discrimination of contrast-modulated patterns

Orientation detection and discrimination thresholds were measured for Gabor ‘envelopes’ formed from contrast-modulation of luminance ‘carriers’. Consistent with previous research differences between carrier and envelope orientation had no effect on sensitivity to envelopes. Using plaid carriers in which the proportion of contrast modulation ‘carried’ by each plaid component was systematically manipulated, it was shown that this tolerance to carrier-envelope orientation difference reflects linear summation across orientation indicative of a single second-stage channel coding for contrast-defined structure. That contrast envelopes did not exhibit linear summation across spatial-frequency, nor across combinations of orientation and spatial-frequency differences, suggests that these second-order channels operate only within certain spatial scales. Using arrays of Gabor micropatterns as carriers in which the orientation distribution of the carriers was manipulated independently of the difference between envelope orientation and mean carrier orientation, it was further demonstrated that the locus of orientation integration must occur prior to envelope detection. In the context of two-stage models that incorporate a non-linearity between the stages, the pattern of results obtained is consistent with the operation of an orientation pooling process between first-stage and second-stage channels, analogous to having all filters of the first-stage feed into all filters of the second-stage within the same spatial-frequency band.

Local perceptions of sustainability indicators: issues of scale and implications for management

A key factor impacting upon sustainable development are the perceptions people hold of their local social, economic and ecological environment. These perceptions influence how communities fashion the local landscape and in turn help to condition the ways people adapt themselves to their local spatial realities. Implicit in these perceptions are indicators of sustainability that may or may not be integrated across the social, economic and ecological realms. Further, these local indicators may not accord with those adopted at the national or global scale. Accordingly, spatial scale presents a particular set of challenges in identifying appropriate indicators of sustainability. In the same way that aggregated changes at a local scale influence sustainability on a broad scale, national and global externalities profoundly affect perceptions relating to sustainable development at the finest of spatial scales.

This paper focuses on one aspect of the issue of scale in sustainable indicator selection: local perceptions of sustainability. In this paper we report on a survey of perceptions of sustainability conducted across thirty-two sub-catchments in three major catchments in south west Victoria. We sought to uncover what people within each sub-catchment perceived as socially, economically and ecologically sustainable. Responses were compared across sub-catchments to determine whether perceptions at the sub-catchment scale were shared across the region. The results indicate that perceptions of sustainability varied between sub-catchments, which means that perceptions relating to sustainability at the regional scale may mask local trends.

No outbreeding depression at a regional scale for a habitat-forming intertidal alga with limited dispersal

Hormosira banksii is distributed throughout southern Australasia, but dispersal of propagules is thought to be limited. In the present study, the hypothesis that outbreeding depression occurs in H. banksii was tested by assessing fertilisation success and early development of embryos in crosses between populations at local to regional spatial scales. Hierarchical experiments were conducted at three spatial scales with nesting present within each scale: small scale (within a rocky shore population), intermediate scale (regions separated by 70 km) and large scale (450-km separation between two states: Victoria and Tasmania). In each experiment, eggs and sperm were crossed within and between each population located in the spatial scale of interest. There were no consistent patterns of variable fertilisation success and subsequent development within a population or at different spatial scales. It was concluded that outbreeding depression is not detected in analyses of fertilisation success or early development processes in H. banksii. The results suggest one of the following to be likely: (1) H. banksii is capable of longer distance dispersal than previously considered, thus maintaining gene flow between distant populations, (2) gene flow is restricted by limited dispersal, but populations have not been isolated for a sufficient length of time to cause genetic divergence or (3) outbreeding depression is manifested as effects on later life-history stages.

Concepts and dimensionality in modeling unsaturated water flow and solute transport

Many environmental studies require accurate simulation of water and solute fluxes in the unsaturated zone. This paper evaluates one- and multi-dimensional approaches for soil water flow as well as different spreading mechanisms to model solute behavior at different scales. For quantification of soil water fluxes,Richards equation has become the standard. Although current numerical codes show perfect water balances, the calculated soil water fluxes in case of head boundary conditions may depend largely on the method used for spatial averaging of the hydraulic conductivity. Atmospheric boundary conditions, especially in the case of phreatic groundwater levels fluctuating above and below a soil surface, require sophisticated solutions to ensure convergence. Concepts for flow in soils with macro pores and unstable wetting fronts are still in development. One-dimensional flow models are formulated to work with lumped parameters in order to account for the soil heterogeneity and preferential flow. They can be used at temporal and spatial scales that are of interest to water managers and policymakers. Multi-dimensional flow models are hampered by data and computation requirements.Their main strength is detailed analysis of typical multi-dimensional flow problems, including soil heterogeneity and preferential flow. Three physically based solute-transport concepts have been proposed to describe solute spreading during unsaturated flow: The stochastic-convective model (SCM), the convection-dispersion equation (CDE), and the fraction aladvection-dispersion equation (FADE). A less physical concept is the continuous-time random-walk process (CTRW). Of these, the SCM and the CDE are well established, and their strengths and weaknesses are identified. The FADE and the CTRW are more recent,and only a tentative strength weakness opportunity threat (SWOT)analysis can be presented at this time. We discuss the effect of the number of dimensions in a numerical model and the spacing between model nodes on solute spreading and the values of the solute-spreading parameters. In order to meet the increasing complexity of environmental problems, two approaches of model combination are used: Model integration and model coupling. Amain drawback of model integration is the complexity of there sulting code. Model coupling requires a systematic physical domain and model communication analysis. The setup and maintenance of a hydrologic framework for model coupling requires substantial resources, but on the other hand, contributions can be made by many research groups.

Catchment to regional scale indicators of sustainability

Ecologically sustainable development requires an integrated approach to environmental integrity, social equity and economic performance. Development of sustainability strategies and empowerment of communities to achieve sustainability will only be effective if progress is monitored. This project provides an opportunity to work within a regional partnership to develop indicators for measuring progress toward sustainability in the south west region of Victoria, Australia. As sustainability is contextual, local organizations have been involved in the identification of key regional values (social, environmental, economic and institutional) and in selecting indicators that can be used to assess to what extent these values are being protected, depleted or enhanced. These indicators are to be used as the basis for exploring relationships between biophysical and socio-economic indicators, to determine what can be deduced from these relationships about sustainability and whether these relationships hold at different spatial scales (catchment, regional and sub-catchment). A rigorous and systematic analysis of indicators and the relationships between them will assist in developing a tool to facilitate decision making for regional sustainability.

An assessment tool for sub-catchment to catchment scale indicators of sustainability - a case study in south west Victoria, Australia

The research reported in this paper represents an attempt to produce a practical, indicator-based sustainability assessment tool incorporating all these elements is based on relationships between indicators determined considering spatial influences. Through the use of an existing sustainability indicator set and data currently available, relationships will be determined using Arcview Geographic Information Systems (GIS), correlation analysis and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Indicator interactions will be identified at two spatial scales and compared to determine impacts of changing spatial scale. Further PCA and multiple regression analyses will then be used to reduce the complexity of the indicator set. These findings will be incorporated into a practical indicator-based assessment tool through the adoption of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with GIS techniques that will then be validated. Once validated the tool can be used to aid in guiding planning and decision-making regarding sustainable development in the Glenelg Hopkins catchment, Victoria; while also moving towards producing a standard set of procedures for assessing sustainability.

Predictive distribution models and their application in wildlife conservation

Wildlife managers are often faced with the difficult task of determining the distribution of species, and their preferred habitats, at large spatial scales. This task is even more challenging when the species of concern is in low abundance and/or the terrain is largely inaccessible. Spatially explicit distribution models, derived from multivariate statistical analyses and implemented in a geographic information system (GIS), can be used to predict the distributions of species and their habitats, thus making them a useful conservation tool. We present two such models: one for a dasyurid, the Swamp Antechinus (Antechinus minimus), and the other for a ground-dwelling bird, the Rufous Bristlebird (Dasyornis broadbenti), both of which are rare species occurring in the coastal heathlands of south-western Victoria. Models were generated using generalized linear modelling (GLM) techniques with species presence or absence as the independent variable and a series of landscape variables derived from GIS layers and high-resolution imagery as the predictors. The most parsimonious model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, for each species then was extrapolated spatially in a GIS. Probability of species presence was used as an index of habitat suitability. Because habitat fragmentation is thought to be one of the major threats to these species, an assessment of the spatial distribution of suitable habitat across the landscape is vital in prescribing management actions to prevent further habitat fragmentation.