Evaluation of three daily rainfall generation models for SWAT

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrologic model that was developed to predict the long-term impacts of land use change on the water balance of large catchments. Stochastic models are used to generate the daily rainfall sequences needed to conduct long-term, continuous simulations with SWAT. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performances of three daily rainfall generation models. The models evaluated were the modified Daily and Monthly Mixed (DMMm) model, skewed normal distribution (SKWD) model and modified exponential distribution (EXPD) model. The study area was the Woady Yaloak River catchment (306 km2) located in southwest Victoria, Australia. The models were assessed on their ability to preserve annual, monthly and daily statistical characteristics of the historical rainfall and runoff. The mean annual, monthly, and daily rainfall was preserved satisfactorily by the models. The DMMm model reproduced the standard deviation of annual and monthly rainfall better than the SKWD and EXPD models. Overall, the DMMm model performed marginally better than the SKWD model at reproducing the statistical characteristics of the historical rainfall record at the various time scales. The performance of the EXPD model was found to be inferior to the performances of the DMMm and SKWD models. The models reproduced the mean annual, monthly, and daily runoff relatively well, although the DMMm and SKWD models were found to preserve these statistics marginally better than the EXPD model. None of the models managed to reproduce the standard deviation of annual, monthly, and daily runoff adequately.

Evaluation of SWAT for modelling the water balance of the Woady Yaloak River catchment, Victoria

Future land use change will have a profound effect on the water balance of agricultural and rural catchments in Australia. It is therefore imperative that any such consequences likely to arise from impending land use changes are predicted accurately so that strategies can be implemented to minimise or prevent undesirable impacts to the water balance of catchments. SWAT is a comprehensive hydrologic model developed to predict the impacts of land use change on water balance. SWAT has been applied in Australia but it has not yet been widely adopted. The application of SWAT to the Woady Yaloak River catchment in southwest Victoria is described in this paper. SWAT is being evaluated to determine whether it is suitable for modelling the water balance of catchments in the southwest region of Victoria and to determine if it could be adopted as a planning tool to manage land use change. The results achieved in this initial application of SWAT were very pleasing. However it is shown that the groundwater and tree growth components of the model are not entirely adequate. These shortcomings with SWAT affect its ability to accurately model the water balance of catchments in Australia. It is recommended that both these components be modified to improve model performance.

Application of SWAT to model the water balance of the Woady Yaloak River catchment, Australia

The widespread land use changes that are expected to occur across the Corangamite region in southwest Victoria, Australia, have the potential to significantly alter the water balance of catchments. Adoption of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is a long-term water balance model, as a tool for predicting land use change impacts on catchment water balance for the Corangamite region is currently being considered. This paper describes the initial application of SWAT to the Woady Yaloak River catchment, located within the Corangamite region, to carry out an evaluation of its abilities for simulating the long-term water balance dynamics of the catchment. The performance of the model for predicting runoff at annual and monthly time scales was found to be very good. The excessive recharge of the shallow aquifer that occurred during winter, despite the subsoil being relatively impermeable, ultimately contributed to overestimation of baseflow and underestimation of interflow. The actual evapotranspiration from hydrologic response units (HRU s) containing eucalyptus trees was significantly less than that from HRUs containing pasture, a problem attributed to the incorrect simulation of Leaf Area Index (LAI) and biomass by the model for mature stands of eucalyptus trees and also to assigning inadequate values for two parameters that directly influence evapotranspiration. SWAT has very good potential for being used as tool to study land use change impacts across the Corangamite region provided that several modifications are made to the model to overcome some of the shortcomings and deficiencies that were identified in this initial application.

Integration of 3-PG into SWAT to simulate the growth of evergreen forests

SWAT cannot accurately simulate the seasonal fluctuations or the long-term trend of the Leaf Area Index (LAI) of evergreen forests. This deficiency has detrimental impacts for the prediction of interception and transpiration, two processes that have a significant influence on catchment water yield. This paper details the integration of the forest growth model 3-PG with SWAT to improve the simulation of LAI for evergreen forests. The integrated model, called SWAT/3-PG, was applied to the Woady Yaloak River Catchment in southern Australia where eucalyptus forests and pine plantations account for 30% of the total land use. SWAT/3-PG simulated the LAI of eucalypts and pines more accurately and realistically than the original version of SWAT. Forest LAI simulated by SWAT/3-PG agreed reasonably well with estimates of forest LAI derived independently from a Landsat satellite image. SWAT/3- PG has considerable value as a tool that managers can utilise to predict the impacts of land use change in catchments where evergreen forests are prevalent.

Assessing the impact of drought and forestry on streamflows in south-eastern Australia using a physically based hydrological model

An increase in plantation forestry has been linked to a reduction in streamflows in some catchments. Quantifying the relative contribution of this land-use change on streamflows can be complex when those changes occur during weather extremes such as drought. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to two sub-catchments in south-eastern Australia which have seen the introduction and establishment of plantation land use in the past 15 years, coinciding with severe drought (1997–2009). The models were both manually and auto-calibrated and produced very good fits to observed streamflow data during both calibration (1980–1991) and validation (1992–2009) periods. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the models were most sensitive to soil and groundwater parameterisation. Analysis of drought conditions on streamflows showed significant declines from long-term average streamflows, while assessment of baseflow contributions by the models indicated a mix of over- and underestimation depending on catchment and season. The modelled introduction of plantation forestry did not significantly change streamflows for a scenario which did not include the land-use change, suggesting that the modelled land-use change in the catchments was not sufficiently extensive to have an impact on streamflows despite simulating actual rates of change. The SWAT models developed by this study will be invaluable as a basis for future use in regional climate-change studies and for the assessment of land management and land-use change impact on streamflows.