10 resultados para STOCHASTIC MODELING

em Deakin Research Online - Australia


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Vehicular Cyber-Physical System (VCPS) provides CPS services via exploring the sensing, computing and communication capabilities on vehicles. VCPS is deeply influenced by the performance of the underlying vehicular network with intermittent connections, which make existing routing solutions hardly to be applied directly. Epidemic routing, especially the one using random linear network coding, has been studied and proved as an efficient way in the consideration of delivery performance. Much pioneering work has tried to figure out how epidemic routing using network coding (ERNC) performs in VCPS, either by simulation or by analysis. However, none of them has been able to expose the potential of ERNC accurately. In this paper, we present a stochastic analytical framework to study the performance of ERNC in VCPS with intermittent connections. By novelly modeling ERNC in VCPS using a token-bucket model, our framework can provide a much more accurate results than any existing work on the unicast delivery performance analysis of ERNC in VCPS. The correctness of our analytical results has also been confirmed by our extensive simulations.

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Modeling and simulation is commonly used to improve vehicle performance, to optimize vehicle system design, and to reduce vehicle development time. Vehicle performances can be affected by environmental conditions and driver behavior factors, which are often uncertain and immeasurable. To incorporate the role of environmental conditions in the modeling and simulation of vehicle systems, both real and artificial data are used. Often, real data are unavailable or inadequate for extensive investigations. Hence, it is important to be able to construct artificial environmental data whose characteristics resemble those of the real data for modeling and simulation purposes. However, to produce credible vehicle simulation results, the simulated environment must be realistic and validated using accepted practices. This paper proposes a stochastic model that is capable of creating artificial environmental factors such as road geometry and wind conditions. In addition, road geometric design principles are employed to modify the created road data, making it consistent with the real-road geometry. Two sets of real-road geometry and wind condition data are employed to propose probability models. To justify the distribution goodness of fit, Pearson's chi-square and correlation statistics have been used. Finally, the stochastic models of road geometry and wind conditions (SMRWs) are developed to produce realistic road and wind data. SMRW can be used to predict vehicle performance, energy management, and control strategies over multiple driving cycles and to assist in developing fuel-efficient vehicles.

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Simulation of materials processing has to face new difficulties regarding proper description of various discontinuous and stochastic phenomena occurring in materials. Commonly used rheological models based on differential equations treat material as continuum and are unable to describe properly several important phenomena. That is the reason for ongoing search for alternative models, which can account for non-continuous structure of the materials and for the fact, that various phenomena in the materials occur in different scales from nano to mezo. Accounting for the stochastic character of some phenomena is an additional challenge. One of the solutions may be the coupled Cellular Automata (CA) – Finite Element (FE) multi scale model. A detailed discussion about the advantages given by the developed multi scale CAFE model for strain localization phenomena in contrast to capabilities provided by the conventional FE approaches is a subject of this work. Results obtained from the CAFE model are supported by the experimental observations showing influence of many discontinuities existing in the real material on macroscopic response. An immense capabilities of the CAFE approach in comparison to limitations of the FE method for modeling of real material behavior is are shown this work as well.

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Many environmental studies require accurate simulation of water and solute fluxes in the unsaturated zone. This paper evaluates one- and multi-dimensional approaches for soil water flow as well as different spreading mechanisms to model solute behavior at different scales. For quantification of soil water fluxes,Richards equation has become the standard. Although current numerical codes show perfect water balances, the calculated soil water fluxes in case of head boundary conditions may depend largely on the method used for spatial averaging of the hydraulic conductivity. Atmospheric boundary conditions, especially in the case of phreatic groundwater levels fluctuating above and below a soil surface, require sophisticated solutions to ensure convergence. Concepts for flow in soils with macro pores and unstable wetting fronts are still in development. One-dimensional flow models are formulated to work with lumped parameters in order to account for the soil heterogeneity and preferential flow. They can be used at temporal and spatial scales that are of interest to water managers and policymakers. Multi-dimensional flow models are hampered by data and computation requirements.Their main strength is detailed analysis of typical multi-dimensional flow problems, including soil heterogeneity and preferential flow. Three physically based solute-transport concepts have been proposed to describe solute spreading during unsaturated flow: The stochastic-convective model (SCM), the convection-dispersion equation (CDE), and the fraction aladvection-dispersion equation (FADE). A less physical concept is the continuous-time random-walk process (CTRW). Of these, the SCM and the CDE are well established, and their strengths and weaknesses are identified. The FADE and the CTRW are more recent,and only a tentative strength weakness opportunity threat (SWOT)analysis can be presented at this time. We discuss the effect of the number of dimensions in a numerical model and the spacing between model nodes on solute spreading and the values of the solute-spreading parameters. In order to meet the increasing complexity of environmental problems, two approaches of model combination are used: Model integration and model coupling. Amain drawback of model integration is the complexity of there sulting code. Model coupling requires a systematic physical domain and model communication analysis. The setup and maintenance of a hydrologic framework for model coupling requires substantial resources, but on the other hand, contributions can be made by many research groups.

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The objective of the work is to consider the first-order effects of the realistic microstructure morphology in the macroscale modeling of the multiphase Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS). Instead of using constitutive equations at macroscale, the strength–microstructure relationship is studied in the forms of micromechanical and multiscale models that do not make considerable simplifications with regard to the microscale geometry and topology. The trade-off between the higher computational time and the higher accuracy has been offset with a stochastic approach in the construction of the microscale models. The multiphase composite effects of AHSS microstructure is considered in realistic microstructural models that are stochastically built from AHSS micrographs. Computational homogenization routines are used to couple micro and macroscale and resultant stress–strain relations are compared for models built with the simplified and idealized geometries of the microstructure. The results from this study show that using a realistic representation of the microstructure, either for DP or TRIP steel, could improve the accuracy of the predicted stress and strain distribution. The resultant globally averaged effective stress and strain fields from realistic microstructure model were able to accurately capture the onset of the plastic instability in the DP steel. It is shown that the macroscale mechanical behavior is directly affected by the level of complexities in the microscale models. Therefore, greater accuracy could be achieved if these stochastic realistic microstructures are used at the microscale models.

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The scheduling of metal to different casters in a casthouse is a complicated problem, attempting to find the balance between pot-line, crucible carrier, furnace and casting machine capacity. in this paper, a description will be given of a casthouse modelling system designed to test different scenarios for casthouse design and operation. Using discrete-event simulation, the casthouse model incorporates variable arrival times of metal carriers, crucible movements, caster operation and furnace conditions. Each part of the system is individually modelled and synchronised using a series of signals or semaphores. in addition, an easy to operate user interface allows for the modification of key parameters, and analysis of model output. Results from the model will be presented for a case study, which highlights the effect different parameters have on overall casthouse performance. The case study uses past production data from a casthouse to validate the model outputs, with the aim to perform a sensitivity analysis on the overall system. Along with metal preparation times and caster strip-down/setup, the temperature evolution within the furnaces is one key parameter in determining casthouse performance.

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This paper addresses the problem of resource scheduling in a grid computing environment. One of the main goals of grid computing is to share system resources among geographically dispersed users, and schedule resource requests in an efficient manner. Grid computing resources are distributed, heterogeneous, dynamic, and autonomous, which makes resource scheduling a complex problem. This paper proposes a new approach to resource scheduling in grid computing environments, the hierarchical stochastic Petri net (HSPN). The HSPN optimizes grid resource sharing, by categorizing resource requests in three layers, where each layer has special functions for receiving subtasks from, and delivering data to, the layer above or below. We compare the HSPN performance with the Min-min and Max-min resource scheduling algorithms. Our results show that the HSPN performs better than Max-min, but slightly underperforms Min-min.

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Dual phase (DP) steels were modeled using 2D and 3D representative volume elements (RVE). Both the 2D and 3D models were generated using the Monte-Carlo-Potts method to represent the realistic microstructural details. In the 2D model, a balance between computational efficiency and required accuracy in truly representing heterogeneous microstructure was achieved. In the 3D model, a stochastic template was used to generate a model with high spatial fidelity. The 2D model proved to be efficient for characterization of the mechanical properties of a DP steel where the effect of phase distribution, morphology and strain partitioning was studied. In contrast, the current 3D modeling technique was inefficient and impractical due to significant time cost. It is shown that the newly proposed 2D model generation technique is versatile and sufficiently accurate to capture mechanical properties of steels with heterogeneous microstructure.

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Collaborative Anomaly Detection (CAD) is an emerging field of network security in both academia and industry. It has attracted a lot of attention, due to the limitations of traditional fortress-style defense modes. Even though a number of pioneer studies have been conducted in this area, few of them concern about the universality issue. This work focuses on two aspects of it. First, a unified collaborative detection framework is developed based on network virtualization technology. Its purpose is to provide a generic approach that can be applied to designing specific schemes for various application scenarios and objectives. Second, a general behavior perception model is proposed for the unified framework based on hidden Markov random field. Spatial Markovianity is introduced to model the spatial context of distributed network behavior and stochastic interaction among interconnected nodes. Algorithms are derived for parameter estimation, forward prediction, backward smooth, and the normality evaluation of both global network situation and local behavior. Numerical experiments using extensive simulations and several real datasets are presented to validate the proposed solution. Performance-related issues and comparison with related works are discussed.