Climatic variation and breeding in the Australian magpie (Gymnorhina Tibicen) : a case study using existing data

To anticipate the effects of climate change on Australia’s avifauna, it is first necessary to understand the current effects of climate (including climate variability) on life histories, and to examine the scope and nature of existing data that may provide the necessary historical context to anticipate the effects of climate change. This study examines naturally occurring geographical gradients (altitude, latitude) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as integrated measures of climate. These are then compared with the timing and ‘amount’ of breeding recorded for the Australian Magpie (Gymnorhina tibicen) using data from Birds Australia’s Nest Record Scheme and Atlas of Australian Birds, the NSW Bird Atlassers Inc.’s NSW Bird Atlas, and the Canberra Ornitholgists Group’s Garden Bird Survey. For this common, easily identified species, these data suggest links between Australian Magpie breeding and all three environmental variables. Breeding became later as altitude increased, the proportion of breeding records increased from north to south, and years of high SOI corresponded to more (and earlier) breeding in this species. That annual climatic fluctuations have a direct, immediate and substantial effect on breeding in the Australian Magpie, particularly on the amount of breeding that occurs, implies that longer term changes in climate will have substantial impacts on populations. Results were not solely temperature-driven, which makes predicting climate change impacts difficult. For rainfall, predictions are far less precise and regional variation is higher. The results also highlight the potential and limitations of current survey techniques for documenting the impacts of climate change on birds; in particular, the Nest Record Scheme does not measure the amount of breeding that occurs, but a useful index of this can be derived from bird atlassing data

Interannual variation in pup production and the timing of breeding in benthic foraging Australian fur seals

¯Large interannual variations in reproductive success caused by fluctuations in oceanography and prey availability are common to many species of air breathing epipelagic predators. In contrast, little is known about variation in benthic foragers such as Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus). Between 1997 and 2007, pup production was assessed in 9 yr, while the timing of breeding and adult female condition was assessed in 5 yr at Kanowna Island in Bass Strait, southeastern Australia. Pup production was variable ( ¯x = 1,726 ± 42, range = 1,386–2,301), but without temporal trend, as was median birth date ( ¯x = 23 November±1, range = 21–25 November) and pupping synchrony (period of 90% births: ¯x = 28 ± 2 d, range = 23–31 d). Pup production was negatively correlated with median birth date and positively correlatedwith female condition,winter sea-surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind strength within Bass Strait. Pup production was also negatively correlated with SST in the previous summer within Bass Strait and in the eastern Great Australian Bight upwelling region. The results suggest that the reproductive success of Australian fur seals is influenced by oceanography but less so than in otariids foraging epipelagically in major upwellings. Despite spanning several El Niño events, no correlation between pup production and the Southern Oscillation Index was observed.

Temporal and spatial variability of breeding in Australian birds and the potential implications of climate change

Climate change has profound implications for biodiversity worldwide. To understand its effects on Australia's avifauna, we need to evaluate the effects of annual climatic variability and geographical climate gradients. Here, we use national datasets to examine variation in breeding of 16 species of common and widespread Australian landbirds, in relation to four variables: altitude, latitude, year and the Southern Oscillation Index. Analysis of 30 years of nesting records confirmed that breeding was generally later in colder altitudes and latitudes (geographic variation), but was not consistently related to year or the Southern Oscillation Index (temporal variation). However, power to detect expected temporal effects was low. The timing of breeding became significantly earlier with year only in south-eastern Australia. In contrast, an index of breeding activity (the proportion of atlas records for a species for which breeding was reported) increased with increasing winter values of the Southern Oscillation Index (generally wetter conditions) for all 16 species across Australia. This suggests that annual fluctuations in rainfall can have dramatic and immediate effects on breeding, even for largely sedentary, seasonally breeding species. If, as expected, climate change creates drier conditions over much of Australia, we predict a marked negative effect on bird breeding.

Analysis of growth and stable isotopes in teeth of male Australian fur seals reveals interannual variability in prey resources

To detect and monitor long-term ecosystem responses to environmental variability, managers must utilize reliable and quantitative techniques to predict future ecosystem responses. Canine teeth from 67 male Australian fur seals (aged 2-19 yr), collected at Seal Rocks, between 1967 and 1976, were measured for relative growth within the dentine growth layer groups (GLGs), as an index of body growth. Fluctuations in relative growth were apparent during 1956-1971, suggesting interannual variation in prey resources within Bass Strait. These were positively correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and negatively with the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole, both on a 2 yr lag. The observed delay may reflect the time required for the nutrient cascade to filter through to the predominantly benthic prey of Australian fur seals. Stable isotope analysis (?15N/?13C) was also used to investigate whether fluctuations in growth were associated with differences in diet. Relative growth was found to be negatively correlated with ?15N, suggesting years of greater resource availability may be associated with individuals consuming proportionally more prey biomass of lower isotopic value. This study demonstrates that fluctuations in the dentine GLGs of male Australian fur seals are related to environmental parameters, suggesting variation in body growth is mediated by changes in prey resources

Relationship between long-term environmental fluctuations and diving effort of female Australian fur seals

For predators foraging within spatially and temporally heterogeneous marine ecosystems, environmental fluctuations can alter prey availability. Using the proportion of time spent diving and foraging trip duration as proxies of foraging effort, a multi-year dataset was used to assess the response of 58 female Australian fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus to interannual environmental fluctuations. Multiple environmental indices (remotely sensed ocean colour data and numerical weather predictions) were assessed for their influence on inter-annual variations in the proportion of time spent diving and trip duration. Model averaging revealed strong evidence for relationships between 4 indices and the proportion of time spent diving. There was a positive relationship with effort and 2 yr-lagged spring sea-surface temperature, current winter zonal wind and southern oscillation index, while a negative relationship was found with 2 yr-lagged spring zonal wind. Additionally, a positive relationship was found between foraging trip duration and 1 yr-lagged spring surface chlorophyll a. These results suggest that environmental fluctuations may influence prey availability by affecting the survival and recruitment of prey at the larval and post-larval phases while also affecting current distribution of adult prey.

Long-term trends in the Australaian gannet (Morus serrator) population in Australia: the effect of climate change and commercial fisheries

The Australasian gannet (Morus serrator) population has increased considerably over the past century, both in New Zealand and Australia. Since 1980, the population in Australian waters has increased threefold, from 6,600 breeding pairs to approximately 20,000 pairs in 1999-2000, a rate of 6% per year. Reasons for the increase in the Australasian gannet population are poorly understood; here we consider the possible effects of recent fluctuations in climatic and oceanographic conditions, and changes in major local commercial fisheries. A significant trend towards more frequent, and stronger, El Niño Southern Oscillation events, warmer summer sea surface temperatures in Bass Strait, increased annual catches and catch per unit effort in the Victorian pilchard (Sardinops sagax) fishery and potential increased discarding of fisheries bycatch may account for at least some of the observed increase in the Australasian gannet population. The potential interactive effects of these factors on prey distribution and abundance and consequently on gannet numbers are discussed.

Spatial and temporal changes in abundance of the infaunal bivalve Soletellina alba (Lamark, 1818) during a time of drought in the seasonally-closed Hopkins River Estuary, Victoria Australia

The infaunal bivalve Soletellina alba is susceptible to mass mortalities during annual winter flooding in the Hopkins River Estuary, southern Australia. Periods of low salinity (≤1) are the likely cause of these mass mortality events, which can occur in seasonally-closed estuaries when high winter flows are sufficient to flush all salt water from the estuary. Core samples of S. alba were collected from two water depths across four times and at three sites near the mouth of the estuary. Minimal to zero abundances of large S. alba (>1 mm) were expected to be sampled, particularly at the shallower water depth, during a typical winter flood event. However, the present study occurred during a period of drought, which led to the absence of winter flooding. This absence of winter flooding prevented the occurrence of lethal salinities (i.e. ≤1) in the estuary during this period and a greater number of living S. alba adults were sampled. Abundances of juvenile and adult S. alba were still variable, even in the absence of winter flooding, and reflected an interaction between date, site and water depth. However, no mass mortalities of adults were observed during the drought conditions in contrast to what occurs during typical winter flood events and provides support for the hypothesis that winter flooding is responsible for past mass mortalities.

Environmental and senescent related variations in Weddell seal body mass : implications for age-specific reproductive performance

Recent studies have found age-specific variations in reproductive performance amongst Weddell seals, Leptonychotes weddellii, and we hypothesized age-related variations in maternal body mass as a mechanism linking maternal age and the observed patterns of reproductive performance. We evaluated the effects of maternal traits such as age and reproductive experience and the effects of environmental variations on maternal body mass at parturition. Maternal body mass at parturition showed substantial age- and environmental-related variations. Maternal body mass increased with age through the young and middle ages, and evidence of senescent declines in body mass was found amongst the oldest ages. Additionally, body mass at parturition was strongly influenced by environmental variations during the pregnancy period, specifically sea-ice extent and the state of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation. Patterns of age-specific variations in body mass were consistent with age-specific patterns of offspring survival probability, which supported our hypothesis that changes in body mass link maternal age and reproductive performance in the Weddell seal. Further, environmental conditions during pregnancy may be an important component of Weddell seal reproductive performance.

Climate as a driver of population variability in breeding Gentoo Penguins (Pygoscelis papua) at the Falkland Islands

Detecting and predicting how populations respond to environmental variability are eminent challenges in conservation research and management. This is particularly true for wildlife populations at high latitudes, many of which demonstrate changes in popula

Have jellyfish in the Irish Sea benefited from climate change and overfishing?

Climate change and overfishing may lead to ecosystem instability and may benefit nonexploited organisms such as jellyfish. In the Irish Sea, an increase in jellyfish abundance was evident (r2=0.29, P=0.03) in a 16-year time-series (1994–2009) collected during juvenile fish surveys. Jellyfish abundance correlated positively with sea surface temperature (SST) over the preceding 18 months (r=0.65, pACF<0.001) and copepod biomass in the previous year (r=0.56, pACF=0.03) and negatively with spring (February–May) precipitation (r=−0.57, pACF=0.02). Principal components regression indicated that climatic indices explained 68% of the interannual variability in jellyfish abundance (P=0.003), where the components were based on the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, SST and precipitation. The frequency of cnidarian material present in Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples has also increased since 1970, with a period of frequent outbreaks between 1982 and 1991. Before this period, the herring stock in the northern Irish Sea declined rapidly to a low level, potentially stimulating structural change in the ecosystem. In 1985, there was a step decrease in CPR copepod biomass and in 1989, a step increase in the phytoplankton colour index, suggesting a cascading regime shift during the 1980s. Subsequent overexploitation of gadids, coupled with warm temperatures and the poor recruitment of cod, led to the rapid decline in cod biomass from 1990. While the biomass of sprat has decreased in the last decade, the herring stock has recovered partially. Reductions in demersal fishing pressure since 2000, intended to stimulate cod recovery, appear to have facilitated further rises in haddock biomass. Since the 1980s regime shift, sea temperatures have increased, the fish community has altered and jellyfish abundance has risen such that jellyfish and haddock may now play an increasingly important role in the ecosystem.

Influence of environmental conditions on foraging behaviour and its consequences on reproductive performance in little penguins

During the breeding season, seabirds are central place foragers and have to adapt their foraging behaviour in response to environmental variation to maximize efficiency and reproductive output. Due to its small size and swimming mode of transport, the little penguin (Eudyptula minor) is expected to be greatly susceptible to such fluctuations. The links between local-, meso- and macro-scale environmental conditions and inter-annual variation in foraging behaviour and reproductive performance of little penguins were investigated during three consecutive breeding seasons at two colonies in south-eastern Australia marked by contrasting oceanographic conditions. At a local scale, foraging effort was correlated positively with wind direction and negatively with wave height. At a regional scale, foraging effort of individuals from both colonies was negatively correlated with higher sea surface temperature (SST) off the Bonney Coast in the previous Austral summer, suggesting a weaker Bonney Upwelling event and a cascade of effects throughout the Bass Strait region. At a larger scale, the El Niño Southern Oscillation was also found to correlate with foraging behaviour, with lower foraging effort being observed during La Niña event. Although individuals increased their foraging effort during years with poorer conditions, they were not able to maintain high breeding success. In addition, peak egg-laying was found to coincide with a decrease in local SST and a peak of sea surface chlorophyll-a concentration. In conclusion, these results highlight how different environmental conditions could influence foraging behaviour and ultimately reproductive success of little penguins. It also showed that under certain circumstances, these individual strategies were not sufficient to cope with environmental variability.

Avian influenza infection dynamics under variable climatic conditions, viral prevalence is rainfall driven in waterfowl from temperate, south-east Australia

Understanding Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) infection dynamics in wildlife is crucial because of possible virus spill over to livestock and humans. Studies from the northern hemisphere have suggested several ecological and environmental drivers of AIV prevalence in wild birds. To determine if the same drivers apply in the southern hemisphere, where more irregular environmental conditions prevail, we investigated AIV prevalence in ducks in relation to biotic and abiotic factors in south-eastern Australia. We sampled duck faeces for AIV and tested for an effect of bird numbers, rainfall anomaly, temperature anomaly and long-term ENSO (El-Niño Southern Oscillation) patterns on AIV prevalence. We demonstrate a positive long term effect of ENSO-related rainfall on AIV prevalence. We also found a more immediate response to rainfall where AIV prevalence was positively related to rainfall in the preceding 3-7 months. Additionally, for one duck species we found a positive relationship between their numbers and AIV prevalence, while prevalence was negatively or not affected by duck numbers in the remaining four species studied. In Australia largely non-seasonal rainfall patterns determine breeding opportunities and thereby influence bird numbers. Based on our findings we suggest that rainfall influences age structures within populations, producing an influx of immunologically naïve juveniles within the population, which may subsequently affect AIV infection dynamics. Our study suggests that drivers of AIV dynamics in the northern hemisphere do not have the same influence at our south-east Australian field site in the southern hemisphere due to more erratic climatological conditions.

Do ENSO and coastal development enhance coastal burial of terrestrial carbon?

Carbon cycling on the east coast of Australia has the potential to be strongly affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensification and coastal development (industrialization and urbanization). We performed paleoreconstructions of estuarine sediments from a seagrass-dominated estuary on the east coast of Australia (Tuggerah Lake, New South Wales) to test the hypothesis that millennial-scale ENSO intensification and European settlement in Australia have increased the transfer of organic carbon from land into coastal waters. Our data show that carbon accumulation rates within coastal sediments increased significantly during periods of maximum millennial-scale ENSO intensity ("super-ENSO") and coastal development. We suggest that ENSO and coastal development destabilize and liberate terrestrial soil carbon, which, during rainfall events (e.g., La Niña), washes into estuaries and becomes trapped and buried by coastal vegetation (seagrass in this case). Indeed, periods of high carbon burial were generally characterized as having rapid sedimentation rates, higher content of fine-grained sediments, and increased content of wood and charcoal fragments. These results, though preliminary, suggest that coastal development and ENSO intensificationboth of which are predicted to increase over the coming centurycan enhance capture and burial of terrestrial carbon by coastal ecosystems. These findings have important relevance for current efforts to build an understanding of terrestrial- marine carbon connectivity into global carbon budgets.