Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

An Australian response to recent developments in the market for audit services

Where the quality - both competence and independence - of an audit is tested, often in the circumstance of a corporate failure, auditors frequently have good defenses as to their competency but rarely do they have equally convincing defenses for the objectivity of their decision-making or the independence of their audit. It is recommended that large audit firms establish an independence board with the authority to define, review and decide upon all threats and potential threats to independence. It would also have responsibility for quality-control and educational programs in respect of audit firm's independence decision-making. Firms would make transparent the processes of the boards, their membership and quality-control procedures. Firms would compete on their independence control processes and not just competence and price. Additionally, firms need to encourage a culture that rewards personnel for seeking counsel on issues pertinent to independence.

Factors associated with attributes of internal audit departments : a canonical analysis

This study explores internal audit (IA) practices in selected Ethiopian organizations to identify factors associated with attributes of IA departments. Analytical questionnaire survey responses of 188 IA directors and staff from Ethiopian government ministries, state-owned enterprises and private companies were used. Canonical analysis results show that IA proficiency, scope of IA work and quality of IA planning and execution are higher in organizations where organizational policy authorizing IA is clearly defined, organizational risk exposure is high and internal audit's linkage with external audit is strong. The findings suggest that in organizations that are exposed to high risk, management tends to appreciate IA's assistance in managing risk and thus strengthens IA. Results also suggest the importance of internal and external audit linkages and IA charter (or similar organizational policy) to strengthen IA. The study provides further evidence of differences in IA attributes between public and private sector entities.

Leukemia risk associated with low-level benzene exposure

Background: Men who were part of an Australian petroleum industry cohort had previously been found to have an excess of lympho-hematopoietic cancer. Occupational benzene exposure is a possible cause of this excess.

Methods: We conducted a case-control study of lympho-hematopoietic cancer nested within the existing cohort study to examine the role of benzene exposure. Cases identified between 1981 and 1999 (N = 79) were age-matched to 5 control subjects from the cohort. We estimated each subject's benzene exposure using occupational histories, local site-specific information, and an algorithm using Australian petroleum industry monitoring data.

Results: Matched analyses showed that the risk of leukemia was increased at cumulative exposures above 2 ppm-years and with intensity of exposure of highest exposed job over 0.8 ppm. Risk increased with higher exposures; for the 13 case-sets with greater than 8 ppm-years cumulative exposure, the odds ratio was 11.3 (95% confidence interval = 2.85-45.1). The risk of leukemia was not associated with start date or duration of employment. The association with type of workplace was explained by cumulative exposure. There is limited evidence that short-term high exposures carry more risk than the same amount of exposure spread over a longer period. The risks for acute nonlymphocytic leukemia and chronic lymphocytic leukemia were raised for the highest exposed workers. No association was found between non-Hodgkin lymphoma or multiple myeloma and benzene exposure, nor between tobacco or alcohol consumption and any of the cancers.

Conclusions: We found an excess risk of leukemia associated with cumulative benzene exposures and benzene exposure intensities that were considerably lower than reported in previous studies. No evidence was found of a threshold cumulative exposure below which there was no risk.

The link between judgements of comparative risk and own risk: Further evidence

Individuals typically believe that they are less likely than the average person to experience negative events, a phenomenon termed “unrealistic optimism”. The direct method of assessing unrealistic optimism employs a question of the form, “Compared with the average person, what is the chance that X will occur to you?”. However, it has been proposed that responses to such a question (direct-estimates) are based essentially just on estimates that X will occur to the self (self-estimates). If this is so, any factors that affect one of these estimates should also affect the other. This prediction was tested in two experiments. In each, direct- and self-estimates for an unfamiliar health threat—homocysteine-related heart problems—were recorded. It was found that both types of estimate were affected in the same way by varying the stated probability of having unsafe levels of homocysteine (Study 1, N = 149) and varying the stated probability that unsafe levels of homocysteine will lead to heart problems (Study 2, N = 111). The results are consistent with the proposal that direct-estimates are constructed just from self-estimates.

A cross-national comparison of risk and protective factors for adolescent substance use : the United States and Australia

Purpose
To compare risk and protective factors that influence youth substance use in Australia and the United States. The two countries have different policy orientations toward substance use: Australia has adopted harm-reduction policies, and the United States has adopted abstinence-focused polices.

Methods
Cross-sectional survey data were collected from independent samples of adolescents in the states of Maine (N = 16,861; 53% female, 7% Non-white) and Oregon (N = 15,542; 51% female, 24% Non-white) in the United States and Victoria in Australia (N = 8442; 54% Female, 11% Non-white) in 1998 (Maine and Oregon) and 1999 (Victoria). Chi-square tests, t-tests, effect size comparisons, and logistic regression analyses that accounted for age and gender were used to investigate cross-national similarities and differences in: (a) rates of cigarette, alcohol, and marijuana use; (b) levels of risk and protective factors; and (c) magnitudes of associations between risk and protective factors and substance use.

Results
More adolescents in Victoria reported using cigarettes and alcohol, whereas more of the U.S. adolescents reported using marijuana. Exposure to risk and protective factors was generally similar in the cross-national samples. However, adolescents in Maine and Oregon perceived handguns to be more readily available, reported more participation in religious activities, and were higher in sensation-seeking and social skills; and adolescents in Victoria had more favorable attitudes toward drug use and reported community norms and parental attitudes more favorable to drug use. Most of the risk and protective factors were strongly associated with substance use to a similar degree in Victoria, Maine, and Oregon. However, among adolescents in Maine and Oregon peer/individual risk and protective factors associated with social detachment were more strongly related to substance use, and among adolescents in Victoria, family protective factors were less strongly related to alcohol use.

Conclusions
Inter-country influences on youth substance use are generally similar despite different policy directions. Existing differences suggest that the abstinence policy context is associated with higher levels of illicit drug use and stronger relations between individual indicators of social detachment and substance use, whereas the harm reduction policy context is related to more cigarette and alcohol use, possibly from exposure to normative influences that are more tolerant of youth drug use.

Environmental risk factors of young onset Parkinson`s disease: a case-control study

While the cause of Parkinson's disease (PD) remains unknown, recent evidence suggests certain environmental factors, such as well water drinking, herbicides and pesticides exposure, and neurotoxins, may trigger the chain of oxidative reactions culminating in the death of dopaminergic neurons in substantia nigra to cause parkinsonism. Most studies to date focused on PD with old age onset. However, there is a peculiar group of parkinsonian patients, the young onset Parkinson's disease (YOPD), in whom the age of onset is before 40. It is intriguing to know whether earlier exposure to the putative neurotoxin(s) may contribute to the earlier onset. We therefore conducted this case-control study in which 60 PD patients, 30 YOPD patients and the same number of age- and sex-matched young controls were included. Using logistic regression, we found well water drinking and head injury were risk factors for the development of YOPD. When YOPD patients were compared with PD, we found head injury and exercise were the significant predictors. Keeping all other variables constant, head injury was a risk factor and exercise appeared to be a protective factor. We conclude early exposure to well water drinking and head trauma may trigger and expedite the appearance of parkinsonian features, but such acceleration may be prevented through regular exercise.

Health watch exposure estimates:do they underestimate benzene exposure

A nested case–control study found that the excess of leukemia, identified among the male members of the Health Watch cohort, was associated with benzene exposure. Exposure had been retrospectively estimated for each individual occupational history using an algorithm in a relational database. Benzene exposure measurements, supplied by Australian petroleum companies, were used to estimate exposure for specific tasks. The tasks carried out within each job, the products handled, and the technology used, were identified from structured interviews with contemporary colleagues. More than half of the subjects started work after 1965 and had an average exposure period of 20 years. Exposure was low; nearly 85% of the cumulative exposure estimates were at or below 10 ppm-years. Matched analyses showed that leukemia risk increased with increasing cumulative benzene exposures and with increasing exposure intensity of the highest-exposed job. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma and multiple myeloma were not associated with benzene exposure. A reanalysis reported here, showed that for the 7 leukemia case-sets with greater than 16 ppm-years cumulative exposure, the odds ratio was 51.9 (5.6–477) when compared to the 2 lowest exposed categories combined to form a new reference category. The addition of occasional high exposures, e.g. as a result of spillages, increased exposure for 25% of subjects but for most, the increase was less than 5% of total exposure. The addition of these exposures reduced the odds ratios. Cumulative exposures did not range as high as those in comparable studies; however, the recent nature of the cohort and local handling practices can explain these differences.

Deterministic versus stochastic quantitative microbial Risk Assessment models for wastewater irrigation of food crops

Reuse of wastewater to irrigate food crops is being practiced in many parts of the world and is becoming more commonplace as the competition for, and stresses on, freshwater resources intensify. But there are risks associated with wastewater irrigation, including the possibility of transmission of pathogens causing infectious disease, to both workers in the field and to consumers buying and eating produce irrigated with wastewater. To manage these risks appropriately we need objective and quantitative estimates of them. This is typically achieved through one of two modelling approaches: deterministic or stochastic. Each parameter in a deterministic model is represented by a single value, whereas in stochastic models probability functions are used. Stochastic models are theoretically superior because they account for variability and uncertainty, but they are computationally demanding and not readily accessible to water resource and public health managers. We constructed models to estimate risk of enteric virus infection arising from the consumption of wastewater-irrigated horticultural crops (broccoli, cucumber and lettuce), and compared the resultant levels of risk between the deterministic and stochastic approaches. Several scenarios were tested for each crop, accounting for different concentrations of enteric viruses and different lengths of environmental exposure (i.e. the time between the last irrigation event and harvest, when the viruses are liable to decay or inactivation). In most situations modelled the two approaches yielded similar estimates of risk (within 1 order-of-magnitude). The two methods diverged most markedly, up to around 2 orders-of-magnitude, when there was large uncertainty associated with the estimate of virus concentration and the exposure period was short (1 day). Therefore, in some circumstances deterministic modelling may offer water resource managers a pragmatic alternative to stochastic modelling, but its usefulness as a surrogate will depend upon the level of uncertainty in the model parameters.

Markers and risk factors for HCV, HBV and HIV in a network of injecting drug users in Melbourne

Background and aims: Current injecting drug users (IDU) in major street drug markets within greater Melbourne were recruited to a longitudinal study on blood borne viruses. Here we investigated risk factors for hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and HIV infection in these IDU at the time of their recruitment.

Methods : Three hundred and eighty-two IDU completed detailed questionnaires on their drug use and risk behaviours, and provided blood samples for serology testing. These data were analysed using univariate and multivariate techniques.

Results : The overall prevalence of exposure to HCV, HBV and HIV was estimated at 70%, 34% and <1%, respectively. Independent predictors of HCV exposure were history of imprisonment (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.19–1.52), use of someone else's needle or syringe (RR 1.23, 95% CI 1.07–1.42), >7.6 years length of time injecting (RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.07–1.37), and originating from Vietnam (RR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07–1.18). Independent predictors of HBV exposure were HCV exposure (RR 2.15, 95% CI 1.35–3.43), >7.6 years length of time injecting (RR 1.57, 95% CI 1.17–2.13) and originating from outside Australia (RR 1.60, 95% CI 1.22–2.10). Neither prison- nor community-applied tattoos predicted HCV or HBV exposure. Up to 31% of IDU who injected for 1 year or less were HCV antibody positive, as were 53% of those who injected for 2 years or less.

Conclusions : Ongoing engagement with young IDU, through the provision of harm reduction education and resources, is critical if we are to address blood borne viral infections and other health and social harms associated with injecting drug use.

Hepatitis C virus infection in South Australian prisoners : seroprevalence, seroconversion, and risk factors

Objectives : To determine entry antibody seroprevalence and seroconversion to hepatitis C virus (HCV) and associated risk factors in newly incarcerated prisoners.

Methods : Males and females entering South Australian prisons completed risk factor surveys and were offered HCV-antibody testing. Participants completed additional surveys and, if HCV-negative at last test, underwent further antibody tests at 3-monthly intervals for up to 15 months. Data were analyzed using univariate and multivariate techniques.

Results : HCV seroprevalence among 662 prison entrants was estimated at 42%. Previous injecting history was highly prevalent at entry (64%) and both community and prison injecting independently predicted entry HCV status. Tattooing was not an important risk factor. While community exposure could not be ruled out, three seroconversions were noted in 148 initially HCV-seronegative individuals occurring in a median 121 days – 4.6 per 100 person-years. Prison injecting was infrequently reported, but HCV-seropositive participants were significantly more likely to commence IDU in prison than seronegative participants (p = 0.035).

Conclusions : Entry HCV seroprevalence in South Australian prisoners is extremely high and may have contributed to a ‘ceiling effect’, minimizing the observable seroconversion rate. Greater frequency of injecting among those already infected with HCV represents a significant threat to other prisoners and prison staff.

Serotonin discontinuation syndrome following utero exposure to antidepressant medication : prospective controlled study

Objectives: The aim of the present study was to examine neonatal symptoms previously reported to be associated with exposure to antidepressant medication in late pregnancy in a group of infants exposed to antidepressants, using a prospective and controlled design.

Method: A prospective case-control study recruited 27 pregnant women taking antidepressant medication and 27 matched controls who were not taking antidepressant medication in pregnancy. Of the 27 women taking medication, 25 remained on medication in the third trimester and, of these, 23 women had complete data available. In pregnancy and after delivery women were assessed with the Beck Depression Inventory-II and a purpose-designed questionnaire. After delivery mothers were asked a set of nine questions pertaining to symptoms of discontinuation in their newborn and questions about pregnancy and delivery complications.

Results: There was an increased risk of discontinuation symptoms in neonates exposed to antidepressant medication in late pregnancy and an association with higher dose medication. The study group were found to be significantly more likely to display behaviour such as crying, jitteriness, tremor, feeding, reflux and sneezing and sleep for <3 h after a feed. They also had significantly higher rates of jaundice and admissions to the special care nursery.

Conclusions: Exposure to antidepressants in late pregnancy is associated with a range of symptoms in the neonate that are consistent with the effects of exposure to antidepressants in late pregnancy. The clusters of symptoms most highly correlated are the gastrointestinal and central nervous system symptoms. These finding helps to identify the common symptoms associated with a neonatal serotonin discontinuation syndrome.

Plasma cholinesterase characteristics in native Australian birds : significance for monitoring avian species for pesticide exposure

Cholinesterase-inhibiting pesticides are applied throughout Australia to control agricultural pests. Blood plasma cholinesterase (ChE) activity is a sensitive indicator of exposure to organophosphorus insecticides in vertebrates. To aid biomonitoring and provide reference data for wildlife pesticide-risk assessment, plasma acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) activities were characterised in nine species of native bird: King Quails (Excalfactoria chinensis), Budgerigars (Melopsittacus undulatus), White-plumed Honeyeaters (Lichenostomas penicillatus), Yellow-throated Miners (Manorina flavigula), Willie Wagtails (Rhipidura leucophrys), Australian Reed-Warblers (Acrocephalus australis), Brown Songlarks (Cincloramphus cruralis), Double-barred Finches (Taeniopygia bichenovii) and Australasian Pipits (Anthus novaeseelandiae). Plasma ChE activities in all species were within the range of most other avian species and all but one contained AChE and BChE; no AChE was present in King Quail, which has not previously been reported for any species. The lowest detectable plasma AChE activity was 0.10 μmol min^–1 mL^–1 in Budgerigars and the highest was 0.86 μmol min^–1 mL^–1 in Australian Reed-Warblers. BChE in the plasma ranged from 0.37 μmol min^–1 mL^–1 in Double-barred Finches to 0.90 μmol min^–1 mL^–1 in White-plumed Honeyeaters and Australian Reed-Warblers. The lowest proportion of AChE was found in Budgerigars (12.8%) and highest in Willie Wagtails (67.8%). No differences were detected in ChE activity at any time of day in Budgerigars and Zebra Finches (Taeniopygia guttata), although there was a significant difference in all ChE activity between seasons in Zebra Finches.