Risky doctorates : managing doctoral studies in Australia as managing risk

This paper draws on work by the author as part of a team undertaking an ARC Discovery project entitled: The Impact of Risk Management on Doctoral Research Policy and Pedagogy in Australian Universities. The team is Erica McWilliam, Peter Taylor, Terry Evans and Alan Lawson, with Eluned Lloyd and Karen Tregenza. Some of the ideas in this paper reflect our discussions, reading and other work as part of this project.

Arguably, part of any manager’s work involves the identification and assessment of risks and then working to minimise or manage them. However, never has this been more important than is the case today for the manager of doctoral studies in Australia. Partly this is related to the rising risk consciousness and risk aversion in contemporary societies, but more particularly it is related to the dangers and harms that have been infused by the Australian government into its policies on ‘research training’ (that is, principally doctoral education) and quality assurance. This article explores the consequences of these two trends, one general and one specific, on the management and nature of doctoral research in Australia.

Doping in sport: an economic analysis

This paper examines the impact of various regulatory policies on the decision to dope by athletes. The analysis suggests that punishment schemes involving lump-sum fines and bans, which are commonly used to control doping, create biases, and do not achieve their goal of levelling the playing field. Under plausible assumptions, these schemes are more likely to control doping for risk averse athletes compared to risk neutral ones, poorer athletes compared to their wealthier counterparts, and athletes with high earning potentials relative to those with lower potential. A marginal penalty scheme where athletes are fined based on the quantity of dope detected eliminates these biases, and emerges as a superior policy for levelling the playing field.

fMRI studies in neuro-fuzzy and behavioral finance : a case based approach

Financial decision making mechanisms have not been identified. Using event-related fMRI without MR compatible switch which can be performed by all MRI system which has only Echo Planar Imaging (EPI) feature, we examined financial decision-making task with three risk levels in two participants. We saw activation regions differences between risk-seeking and risk-aversion selection in addition to larger activated regions in selection funding in comparison with no selection. Thus, consideration of anticipatory neural mechanisms may add predictive power for economic decision- making.

Promoting transportation cycling for women : the role of bicycle infrastructure

Objective.
Females are substantially less likely than males to cycle for transport in countries with low bicycle transport mode share. We investigated whether female commuter cyclists were more likely to use bicycle routes that provide separation from motor vehicle traffic.
Methods.
Census of cyclists observed at 15 locations (including off-road bicycle paths, on-road lanes and roads with no bicycle facilities) within a 7.4 km radius of the central business district (CBD) of Melbourne, Australia, during peak commuting times in February 2004.
Results.
6589 cyclists were observed, comprising 5229 males (79.4%) and 1360 females (20.6%). After adjustment for distance of the bicycle facility from the CBD, females showed a preference for using off-road paths rather than roads with no bicycle facilities (odds ratio [OR] = 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12, 1.83), or roads with on-road bicycle lanes (OR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.75).
Conclusions.
Consistent with gender differences in risk aversion, female commuter cyclists preferred to use routes with maximum separation from motorized traffic. Improved cycling infrastructure in the form of bicycle paths and lanes that provide a high degree of separation from motor traffic is likely to be important for increasing transportation cycling amongst under-represented population groups such as women.

Valuation and incentive effects of hurdle rate executive stock options

Traditional executive stock options are often criticized for inherently weak links between pay and performance. Hurdle rate executive stock options represent a viable improvement. However, valuing these options presents extraordinary analytic difficulties. With a constant dividend yield the strike price becomes a path-dependent function of the stock price and exact analytic valuation is intractable. To solve this problem, we apply the Monte Carlo valuation approach developed by Longstaff and Schwartz (Rev Financ Stud 4:113–147, 2001) to estimate the value of path-dependent American options. We also extend the methodology to incorporate the theoretical framework by Ingersoll (J Bus 79:453–487, 2006) to permit subjective valuation influenced by an executive’s risk aversion.

How sensitive are bargaining outcomes to changes in disagreement payoffs?

We use a human-subjects experiment to investigate how bargaining outcomes are affected by changes in bargainers’ disagreement payoffs. Subjects bargain against changing opponents, with randomly drawn asymmetric disagreement outcomes that vary over plays of the game, and with complete information about disagreement payoffs and the cake size. We find that subjects only respond about half as much as theoretically predicted to changes in their own disagreement payoff and to changes in their opponent’s disagreement payoff. This effect is observed in a standard Nash demand game and a related unstructured bargaining game, in both early and late rounds, and is robust to moderate changes in stake sizes. We show theoretically that standard models of expected utility maximisation are unable to account for this under-responsiveness, even when generalised to allow for risk aversion. We also show that quantal-response equilibrium has, at best, mixed success in characterising our results. However, a simple model of other-regarding preferences can explain our main results.

When social anxiety co-occurs with substance use: does an impulsive social anxiety subtype explain this unexpected relationship?

Although most conceptualizations of social anxiety emphasise that socially anxious individuals are overtly shy, and utilise avoidant behavioural strategies (e.g., risk-aversion, passivity, and submissiveness), there is tentative support for the existence of an approach-motivated subtype, characterised by risk taking and a greater propensity for substance misuse. It is likely that this subtype may help explain the reported co-occurrence of substance misuse and social anxiety. The current study sought to test via latent class analysis whether an approach-motivated social anxiety subtype could be identified within a community sample. A self-report questionnaire was completed by 351 participants (age: 18-74 years). Two distinct social anxiety subgroups were identified: one characterised by prototypical SAD symptomatology (i.e., behavioural inhibition and risk-avoidance), the second by elevated levels of rash impulsiveness, reward sensitivity, risk-taking and co-occurring substance use problems. The current findings provides support for the existence of a distinct approach-motivated social anxiety subtype and indicates that impulsivity may be critical to understanding the comorbid substance use symptomatology of these individuals.

Win at all costs or lose gracefully in high-stakes competition? Gender differences in professional tennis

This article examines line-call challenges by male and female professional tennis players in major tournaments around the world. In terms of utilization rates, we find that the genders behave similarly. Nevertheless, we do detect some intriguing gender differences in these challenges. First, male players’ challenges are more likely to be provoked by those of their opponents. More importantly, at tiebreaks, females are more likely to reverse an umpire’s unfavorable call, while males make relatively more unsuccessful challenges. Furthermore, we find that men are a lot more likely to make “embarrassing” line-call challenges at tiebreaks and offenses (i.e., when the shot lands at the opponent’s side of the tennis court) than women. These significant gender differences suggest that women particularly diverge from men at crucial junctures of the match such as tiebreaks. Differences in factors such as risk aversion, overconfidence, pride, shame, and strategic signalling behavior might help us to explain these gender-difference findings in line call challenges.

Role of index bonds in an optimal dynamic asset allocation model with real subsistence consumption

We investigate the role of index bonds in a dynamic consumption and asset allocation model where the rate of real consumption at any given time cannot fall below a fixed level. An explicit form of the optimal consumption and portfolio rule for a class of Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility functions is derived. Consumption increases above the subsistence level only when wealth exceeds a threshold value. Risky investments in equity and nominal bonds are initially proportional to the excess of wealth over a lower bound, and then increase nonlinearly with wealth. The desirability of investing in the risky assets are related to the agent’s risk preference, the equity premium, and the inflation risk premium. The demand for index bonds is also obtained. The results should be useful for the management of defined benefit pension funds, university endowments, and other portfolios which have a withdrawal pre-commitment in real terms.

Promoting innovation in university teaching against the tide of centralised control and institutional risk avoidance

Over the last m'o decades, university systems world-wide have been subject to government initiated, top-down restructures in the name of greater effectiveness, accountability and quality. Within this timefrome, government interest in university teaching has increased, and innovation and responsiveness in teaching have been increasingly prioritised by both government and university policies. AcademiC interest in the teaching has also increased. and much research and discussion has focused on defining teaching as a source of scholarship and expounding its role in the promotion of innovation, and in the recognition and rewarding of teaching work. In this paper, I draw on a study of academics' views, which I have reported at previous AARE conferences and elsewhere, to raise questions about recent and ongoing developments in the work environment of university educators.l raise the possibility that systems and processes whose express purpose is to facilitate and support university educators' efforts to improve teaching are, in fact. inhibiting innovative practice by institutionalising an aversion to risk that is anathema to innovation.