Gay men's estimates of the likelihood of HIV transmission in sexual behaviours

In 3 studies we recorded gay men's estimates of the likelihood that HIV would be transmitted in various sexual behaviours. In Study 1 (data collected 1993, n=92), the men were found to believe that transmissibility is very much greater than it actually is; that insertive unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) by an HIV-infected partner is made safer by withdrawal before ejaculation, and very much safer by withdrawal before either ejaculation or pre-ejaculation; that UAI is very much safer when an infected partner is receptive rather than insertive; that insertive oral sex by an infected partner is much less risky than even the safest variant of UAI; that HIV is less transmissible very early after infection than later on; and that risk accumulates over repeated acts of UAI less than it actually does. In Study 2 (data collected 1997/8, n=200), it was found that younger and older uninfected men generally gave similar estimates of transmissibility, but that infected men gave somewhat lower estimates than uninfected men; and that estimates were unaffected by asking the men to imagine that they themselves, rather than a hypothetical other gay man, were engaging in the behaviours. Comparison of the 1993 and 1997/8 results suggested that there had been some effect of an educational campaign warning of the dangers of withdrawal; however, there had been no effect either of a campaign warning of the dangers of receptive UAI by an infected partner, or of publicity given to the greater transmissibility of HIV shortly after infection. In Study 3 (data collected 1999, n=59), men induced into a positive mood were found to give lower estimates of transmissibility than either men induced into a neutral mood or men induced into a negative mood. It is argued that the results reveal the important contribution made to gay men's transmissibility estimates by cognitive strategies (such as the 'availability heuristic' and 'anchoring and adjustment') known to be general characteristics of human information-processing. Implications of the findings for AIDS education are discussed.

Generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates for markov random fields on lattice

In this paper we generalize Besag's pseudo-likelihood function for spatial statistical models on a region of a lattice. The correspondingly defined maximum generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates (MGPLEs) are natural extensions of Besag's maximum pseudo-likelihood estimate (MPLE). The MGPLEs connect the MPLE and the maximum likelihood estimate. We carry out experimental calculations of the MGPLEs for spatial processes on the lattice. These simulation results clearly show better performances of the MGPLEs than the MPLE, and the performances of differently defined MGPLEs are compared. These are also illustrated by the application to two real data sets.

Estimates of Heterozostera tasmanica, Zostera muelleri and Ruppia megacarpa distribution and biomass in the Hopkins Estuary, western Victoria, by GIS

Knowledge of the spatial arrangement of the seagrass distribution and biomass within the Hopkins Estuary is an essential step towards gaining an understanding of the functioning of the estuarine ecosystem. This study marks the first attempt to map seagrass distribution and model seagrass biomass and epiphyte biomass along depth gradients by the use of global positioning system (GPS) and geographical information system (GIS) technologies in the estuary. For mapping seagrass in small estuaries, ground-surveying the entire system is feasible. Three species of seagrasses, Heterozostera tasmanica (Martens ex Aschers), Zostera muelleri (Irmisch ex Aschers) and Ruppia megacarpa (Mason), were identified in the Hopkins Estuary. All beds investigated contained a mixed species relationship. Three harvest techniques were trialed in a pilot study, with the 25 × 25-cm quadrat statistically most appropriate. Biomass of seagrasses and epiphytes was found to vary significantly with depth, but not between sites. The average estimate of biomass for total seagrasses and their epiphytes in the estuary in January 2000 was 222.7 g m^–2 (dry weight). Of the total biomass, 50.6% or 112.7 g m^–2 (dry weight) was contributed by seagrasses and 49.4% of the biomass (110.0 g m^–2) were epiphytes. Of the 50.6% of the total biomass represented by seagrasses, 39.3% (87.5 g m^–2) were leaves and 11.3% (25.2 g m^–2) were rhizomes. The total area of seagrasses present in the Hopkins Estuary was estimated to be 0.4 ± 0.005 km², with the total area of the estuary estimated to be 1.6 ± 0.02 km² (25% cover). The total standing crop of seagrasses and epiphytes in the Hopkins Estuary in January 2000 was estimated to be 102.3 ± 57 t in dry weight, 56% (56.9 ± 17 t, dry weight) seagrasses and 44% (45.4 ± 19 t, dry weight) epiphytes. Of the seagrass biomass, 39% (39.7 ± 13 t, dry weight) was contributed by leaves and 17% (17.3 ± 7 t, dry weight) by rhizomes.

Estimating the economic value of Mount Buffalo National Park with the travel cost and contingent valuation models

The Mount Buffalo National Park is the oldest national park in Victoria, Australia. There has been a rapid increase in the number of visitors to the park during the last decade and park management has been a concern, especially in the light of declining budgetary allocations and potential damage due to the increased visitor numbers. Policy options to increase park revenue remain unclear because of a lack of information on demand parameters and user costs. This study estimates the economic value of the park using the travel cost method (TCM) and the contingent valuation method (CVM). The TCM gives higher consumer surplus (CS) than the CVM. The CS shows that the economic value of the park is high and that there are opportunities to introduce innovative fee schemes to enhance its revenue. Present entry fee systems do not capture the economic value of the park.

Accounting for local government boundary changes in South Australia : valuing assets and liabilities or valuing revenue streams

This paper examines the methodologies adopted in the transfer of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses resulting from boundary changes associated with municipal amalgamations in South Australia during the late 1990s. It investigates the methods employed for apportioning these financial elements, valuations used and financial settlements required. Significant transfers occurred in only three cases. In two cases, councils used simple, pragmatic methods to apportion assets and liabilities, similar to those used previously in Victoria. In the third case a transfer price was calculated based on the net present value of revenues. This method is quite different from previous methods examined and is appropriate where one council will make significant future gains at another council's loss because of net revenue transfers.

Can we obtain realistic parameter estimates for the 'protection for sale' model?

In the Grossman and Helpman (1994) model of endogenous trade protection, sectoral lobbies try to influence an incumbent government that maximizes a weighted sum of political contributions and aggregate welfare. We empirically investigate this model using U.S. and Turkish data. Our specification is more tightly tied to theory than those in existing studies. Additionally, we assume all specific‐factor owners to be organized into different lobbies. These changes, validated by hypothesis tests, yield more realistic parameter estimates of the government's concern for aggregate welfare and of the fraction of population organized into lobbies.

Health watch exposure estimates:do they underestimate benzene exposure

A nested case–control study found that the excess of leukemia, identified among the male members of the Health Watch cohort, was associated with benzene exposure. Exposure had been retrospectively estimated for each individual occupational history using an algorithm in a relational database. Benzene exposure measurements, supplied by Australian petroleum companies, were used to estimate exposure for specific tasks. The tasks carried out within each job, the products handled, and the technology used, were identified from structured interviews with contemporary colleagues. More than half of the subjects started work after 1965 and had an average exposure period of 20 years. Exposure was low; nearly 85% of the cumulative exposure estimates were at or below 10 ppm-years. Matched analyses showed that leukemia risk increased with increasing cumulative benzene exposures and with increasing exposure intensity of the highest-exposed job. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma and multiple myeloma were not associated with benzene exposure. A reanalysis reported here, showed that for the 7 leukemia case-sets with greater than 16 ppm-years cumulative exposure, the odds ratio was 51.9 (5.6–477) when compared to the 2 lowest exposed categories combined to form a new reference category. The addition of occasional high exposures, e.g. as a result of spillages, increased exposure for 25% of subjects but for most, the increase was less than 5% of total exposure. The addition of these exposures reduced the odds ratios. Cumulative exposures did not range as high as those in comparable studies; however, the recent nature of the cohort and local handling practices can explain these differences.

Cross-national compartability of burden of disease estimates:the European disability weights project

Objective: To investigate the sources of cross-national variation in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in the European Disability
Weights Project.

Methods: Disability weights for 15 disease stages were derived empirically in five countries by means of a standardized procedure and the cross-national differences in visual analogue scale (VAS) scores were analysed. For each country the burden of dementia in women, used as an illustrative example, was estimated in DALYs. An analysis was performed of the relative effects of cross-national variations in demography, epidemiology and disability weights on DALY estimates.

Findings: Cross-national comparison of VAS scores showed almost identical ranking orders. After standardization for population size and age structure of the populations, the DALY rates per 100 000 women ranged from 1050 in France to 1404 in the Netherlands. Because of uncertainties in the epidemiological data, the extent to which these differences reflected true variation between countries was difficult to estimate. The use of European rather than country-specific disability weights did not lead to a significant change in the burden of disease estimates for dementia.

Conclusions: Sound epidemiological data are the first requirement for burden of disease estimation and relevant between-countries comparisons. DALY estimates for dementia were relatively insensitive to differences in disability weights between European countries.

Government revenue, private welfare, and tax reform in a small open economy

This paper examines the welfare and revenue effects of consumption and income taxes in a general equilibrium model with variable supply of labour and public goods. We derive the optimal consumption and income tax rates for such an economy. It is established that it is better to lower the income tax rate and increase the rate of consumption tax when this economy is in a downturn.