Common trends and common cycles in per capita GDP : the case of the G7 Countries, 1870-2001

In this paper we analyze per capita incomes of the G7 countries using the common cycles test developed by Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8:341–360, 1993) and extended by Hecq et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62:511–532, 2000; Econometric Reviews, 21:273–307, 2002) and the common trend test developed by Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231–254, 1988). Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing the innovations into permanent and transitory components. Our main finding is permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in incomes for the G7 countries over short time horizons, and is in sharp contrast to the bulk of the recent literature. We attribute this to the greater forecasting accuracy achieved, which we later confirm through performing a post sample forecasting exercise, from the variance decomposition analysis.

Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?

The goal of this paper is to examine whether per capita GDP for 15 Asian countries is panel stationary. We apply a panel test for stationarity that allows for multiple structural breaks developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (Econ J 8: 159–179, 2005). Our main findings are: (1) when we apply conventional tests, such as the ADF and KPSS univariate tests without structural breaks, we find little evidence for stationarity; (2) when we apply the KPSS univariate test with multiple structural breaks, we find evidence of stationarity for 10 out of 15 countries; and (3) when we apply the KPSS panel test with multiple structural breaks, we find overwhelming evidence of panel stationarity of per capita real GDP for different panels of Asian countries.

Are G7 per capita real GDP levels non-stationary, 1870–2001?

In this paper we examine whether or not G7 per capita income can be classified as a stationary process using data for over a century. The unit root null hypothesis is tested using the recently developed Lagrange multiplier test which allows for at most two structural breaks. We are able to reject the unit root null hypothesis for all the countries at the 5 percent level or better, except for Italy and Germany.

Financial safety nets: reconstructing and modelling a policymaking metaphor

This paper explains that financial safety nets exist because of difficulties in enforcing contracts and shows that elements of deposit-insurance schemes differ substantially across countries. It shows that differences in the design of financial safety nets correlate significantly with differences in the informational and contracting environments of individual countries and that a country's GDP per capita is correlated with proxies for a country's level of: (1) informational transparency, (2) contract enforcement and deterrent rights, and (3) accountability for safety net officials. The analysis portrays deposit insurance as a part of a country's larger safety net and contracting environment. This means that there is no universal method for preventing and resolving banking problems and that the structure of a country's safety net should evolve over time with changes in private and government regulators' capacity for valuing financial institutions, disciplining risk taking and resolving insolvency promptly, and for being held accountable for how well they perform these tasks.

The simple analytics of optimal growth with illegal migrants

This paper analyses the impact of illegal migration on the optimal path of domestic (resident) consumption. The analysis draws two important conclusions. First, if illegal migrants and domestic labour are perfect substitutes, illegal migration necessarily lowers the long-run per capita consumption of domestic residents. Second, if illegal migrants and domestic labour are imperfect substitutes, the effect on the long-run per capita domestic consumption is ambiguous, however, in the Cobb–Douglas case, the result is clear cut and per capita domestic consumption rises as a result of illegal migration.

Income differences in food consumption in the 1995 Australian national nutrition survey

Objective: To assess the relationships between an index of per capita income and the intake of a variety of individual foods as well as groups of food for men and women in different age groups. Design: Cross-sectional national survey of free-living men and women. Subjects: A sample of 5053 males and 5701 females aged 18 y and over who completed the Australian National Nutrition Survey 1995. Methods: Information about the frequency of consumption of 88 food items was obtained. On the basis of scores on the Food Frequency Questionnaire, regular and irregular consumers of single foods were identified. The relationships between regularity of consumption of individual foods and per capita income were analysed via contingency tables. Food variety scores were derived by assigning individual foods to conventional food group taxonomies, and then summing up the dichotomised intake scores for individual foods within each food group. Two-way ANOVA (income age group) were performed on the food variety scores for males and females, respectively. Results: Per capita income was extensively related to the reported consumption of individual foods and to total and food group variety indices. Generally, both men and women in low income households had less varied diets than those in higher-income households. However, several traditional foods were consumed less often by young high-income respondents, especially young women. Conclusions: Major income differentials in food variety occur in Australia but they are moderated by age and gender. Younger high-income women, in particular, appear to have rejected a number of traditional foods, possibly on the basis of health beliefs. The findings also suggest that data aggregation has marked effects on income and food consumption relationships.

Economic growth and sustainability - an empirical study of the Thai development experience

Increasing economic growth has long been the dominant position within the public policies of all South East Asian countries. More recently, a new issue, sustainability, has emerged within development economic literature, which has significant implications for the continual pursuit of economic growth. Sustainability is concerned with ensuring the current generation meets their present needs without threatening future generations' ability to do likewise. This ability is dependent on a healthy and functioning socio-economic environmental (SEE) system. Economic growth can damage the SEE-system, though, through resource degradation, over-harvesting and pollution. Therefore, achieving economic growth and sustainability simultaneously may not be possible. This paper discusses these tensions between economic growth and sustainability by undertaking a number of SEE-based adjustments to GDP in order to measure sustainability. Thailand is used as a case study for a 25 year period, 1975-1999. The adjustments include the environmental costs caused by economic growth such as noise pollution, water pollution, the depletion of non-renewable resources, and deforestation. The results show a stark difference in terms of GDP per capita and the SEE-adjusted GDP per capita figure. The paper concludes that with increasing environmental costs of economic growth, pursuing high growth objectives without considerations to the environment threatens sustainability

Review of greywater reuse practices in Victoria

Greywater reuse has become popular in rural and urban communities of Australia. In recent years, the Barwon region of Victoria has been affected by drought and as a result, water restrictions were imposed at different stages. While a water conservation by-law was introduced in February 2003 with overwhelming community support, greywater reuse is still debated among householders, Environment Protection Authority (EPA), local councils, and the water authorities. Higher levels of greywater reuse are needed due to low average rainfall in the region and high water consumption per capita. This paper looks at the position of the different parties that govern greywater reuse and presents the factors that restrain uniform reuse practices. Factors considered include quantity and quality of greywater generated in the Barwon region, current regulatory controls as reviewed through a series of surveys of local councils and water authorities. While the water restrictions resulted in an increased demand for alternative means of watering garden areas, the regulatory conditions were found to be unsettled about greywater reuse, with a wide range of concerns making these authorities unwilling to encourage it.

Should we save or should we consume? Linking growth theories and the Keynesian models

In major economic growth theories, high saving rate gives rise to high level of output per capita. But in Keynesian economics, high saving rate causes low consumption and will lead the economy into recession. Students may ask, "For the well-being of an economy, should we save or should we consume?" In most of the intermediate macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are taught in separate chapters; and in many cases, these chapters are not even successive to each other. There lacks a continuity between the long run and short run models. This paper builds a bridge between growth theories and Keynesian models. It links the Solow diagram and the IS-LM curves and depicts the short run and long run implications of a change in the saving rate.

Assessing direct and indirect water requirements of construction

Australia is considered the driest populated continent in the world. Despite this, we consume the largest amount of water, per capita. While little of this water is used for the operation of buildings, buildings are now being designed to use less water. Additionally, rainwater collection and grey water recycling systems offer the potential to significantly reduce demand for fresh water. However, little is known about the water required directly and indirectly (ie., embodied in) construction materials and products. Embodied water comprises the water required directly for construction itself and the water consumed indirectly in the production and delivery of materials, products and services to construction. Water required directly for construction is likely to be insignificant compared to the indirect water required for the manufacture of construction materials and products (ie., through materials and other products required to support construction). There is currently a lack of research into embodied water requirements by the construction sector. The relationship between the embodied water and the operational water is also unknown, apart from a handful of studies based solely on national average statistics known as 'input-output' data. The aim of this paper is therefore to model the water required directly and indirectly by construction, integrating currently available public domain industry data with input-output data. The coverage of the industry data relative to the input-output data was evaluated for a typical commercial building, and was found to be very low.

An evaluation of personal greenhouse gas calculators

Personal greenhouse gas calculators (PGGC) are important tools to raise awareness of the impact of personal behaviour on carbon dioxide emissions. Per capita, Australians are the highest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world and the task for them to reduce emissions to sustainable levels will be particularly challenging. This paper reviews six PGGC promoted in Australia and evaluates them for their consistency. The emissions for an individual currently practicing a modest green lifestyle are calculated and compared. Emission calculations were found to differ by an order of magnitude in some cases. It was also found that users of PGGC are not adequately informed about the limitations of the calculators. The adoption of modest and radical green lifestyles reduced greenhouse gas emissions to 83% and 53% of the average Australian, indicating that behavioural changes by consumers alone will be insufficient to reduce emissions to sustainable levels.

To save or to consume: linking growth theory with the Keynesian model

In the neoclassical growth theory, higher saving rate gives rise to higher output per capita. However, in the Keynesian model, higher saving rate causes lower consumption, which may lead to a recession. Students may ask, “Should we save or should we consume?” In most of the macroeconomics textbooks, economic growth and Keynesian economics are in separate, sometimes unsequential, chapters. The connection between the short run and the long run is not apparent. The author builds a bridge between the neoclassical growth theory and the Keynesian model. He links the Solow diagram and the IS-LM curves and depicts the short-run to long-run transition of the economy after changes in saving and other macroeconomic policies.

What explains dissent on the High Court of Australia? An empirical assessment using a cointegration and error correction approach

This article examines the factors influencing the annual dissent rate on the High Court of Australia from its first full year of operation in 1904 up to 2001 within a cointegration and error correction framework. We hypothesize that institutional factors, socioeconomic complexity, and leadership style explain variations in the dissent rate on the High Court of Australia over time. The institutional factors that we consider are the Court's caseload, whether it had discretion to select the cases it hears, and whether it was a final court of appeal. To measure socioeconomic complexity we use the divorce rate, urbanization rate, and real GDP per capita. Our main finding is that in the long run and short run, caseload and real income are the main factors influencing dissent. We find that a 1 percent increase in caseload and real income reduce the dissent rate on the High Court of Australia by 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, holding other factors constant.