Determinants of demand for Fiji's exports : an empirical investigation

Fiji is no exception to the rule that exports are an important source of growth and development. In this light, it is important to know the determinants of exports. However, there is no empirical study on Fiji's export demand. This paper uses the modern econometric techniques—in particular, the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration—to investigate whether the standard export demand variables, viz., trading partner income, export price, and competitor price, have a long-run cointegration relationship with Fiji's real exports for the period 1970 to 1999. In addition, the long-run results are also estimated by using the dynamic ordinary least squares and the fully modified ordinary least squares. The empirical results indicate the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables. The long-run foreign income, own-price, and cross-price elasticities are found to be 0.7 to 0.8, −1.3 to −1.5, and 2.1 to 2.2, respectively.

Critical uncertainty factors for efficient allocation of demand risk in privately financed public infrastructure projects in Australia

Risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects, which are mainly referred as public-private partnership (PPP) projects, is a challenging job due to the nature of incomplete contracting. Among the various risks that may eventually materialise, demand risk is one of the major challenges that PPPs face. Choosing a risk allocation strategy could be viewed as the process of deciding the proportion of risk management responsibility between public and private partners based on a series of characteristics of risk management service transaction in question. These characteristics are more or less related to the various uncertainty factors. In this study, various uncertainty factors have been examined in order to achieve efficient allocation of demand risk and minimise risk management-related costs in a long-term view. Critical uncertainty factors have been identified through an industry-wide survey in Australia. Future research directions are also set out.

Does supply always come on the heels of demand? Matches and mismatches in e-learning

Developing sustainable e-learning requires a better understanding of the perceptions and preferences of e-learning providers and e-learners on the four crucial dimensions for elearning success including pedagogies, technologies, learning resources and management of learning resources. There is, however, little research on evaluating whether these critical dimensions are perceived as critical by e-learning providers and e-learners. To address this issue, this study investigates the gap between e-learners’ and e-learning providers’ perceptions and preferences on these critical dimensions for e-learning effectiveness. Such an investigation paves the way for developing appropriate measures to reduce the gap between the supply and the demand for sustainable e-learning.

Identifying determinants of demand for construction using an econometric approach

Economic variation and its effects on construction demand have received a great deal of attention in construction economics studies. An understanding of future trends in demand for construction could influence investment strategies for a variety of parties, including construction developers, suppliers, property investors and financial institutions. This paper derives the determinants of demand for construction in Australia using an econometric approach to identify and evaluate economic indicators that affect construction demand. The forecasting contribution of different determinants of economic indicators and their categories to the demand for construction are further estimated. The results of this empirical study suggest that changes in consumer’s expectation, income and production, and demography and labour force are closely correlated with the movement of construction demand; and 14 economic indicators are identified as the determinants for construction demand. It was found that the changes in construction price, national income, size of population, unemployment rate, value or export, household expenditure and interest rates play key roles in explaining future variations in the demand for construction in Australia. Some “popular” macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, established house price and bank loans produced inconclusive results.

Gen green 4 Australia: a national study of demand for and supply of skills for sustainability

In this research, skills for sustainability are broadly conceived as including skills for social, economic and environmental sustainability – a triple bottom-line approach. Since 2009 Australian governments have been implementing an agreement that embeds skills for sustainability into vocational education and training, despite scant information about the actual levels of demand for, and supply of these skills. This study provides evidence on the actual depth and breadth of the take-up of these skills within Australian training organisations and workplaces. The demand studied in this research is that expressed by the primary consumers of Australian Vocational Education and Training (VET) services, students who engage in VET studies, this is known in the literature as social demand for education. VET students and teachers responded to two survey instruments that explored the sustainability values, behaviours, learning and teaching of Australian apprentices, trainees and their teachers. The results of this study show ‘a social demand’ for skills for sustainability. In summary, the results show that: •Apprentices, trainees and their teachers cared a great deal about social, economic and environmental sustainability; •Supply was closely aligned to social demand for skills for sustainability so that demand for skills for sustainability from VET students was almost entirely met; •There are important differences in the teaching, learning and utilisation of skills for sustainability that are related to gender and age; and •In-class learning of environmental skills has increased over time and now slightly outweighs learning of these skills at work, however community learning of these skills outweighs both. The findings suggest that: •Further action is required to embed green skills into the VET system, especially in the areas of energy efficiency and supply chains; •The VET system plays an important role in supporting community cohesion and economic literacy, especially for women; •It is important that social sustainability is properly considered in analysis informing VET policy; and •Gender differences in values and behaviours and gender and age differences in learning skills for sustainability have important implications for the design of future skills for sustainability programs. VET students and their teachers have unique insights into the supply of and demand for skills for sustainability, and this viewpoint can contribute, now and in the future, to the further development of skills for sustainability in Australia.

The residential demand for electricity in Australia : an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration

This paper reports estimates of the long- and short-run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in Australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration, within an autoregressive distributive lag framework. In the long run, we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand, while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant. Our estimates of long-run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies, although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates. As expected, the short-run elasticities are much smaller than the long-run elasticities, and the coefficients on the error-correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short-run energy appliances are fixed.

The effects of the late 2000s global financial crisis on Australia's construction demand

An accurate measurement of the impacts of external shocks on construction demand will enable construction industry policymakers and developers to make allowances for future occurrences and advance the construction industry in a sustainable manner. This paper aims to measurethe dynamic effects of the late 2000s global financial crisis on the level of demand in the Australian construction industry. The vector error correction (VEC) model with intervention indicators is employed to estimate the external impact from the crisis on a macro-level construction economic indicator, namely construction demand. The methodology comprises six main stages to produce appropriate VEC models that describe the characteristics of the underlying process. Research findings suggestthat overall residential and non-residential construction demand were affected significantly by the recent crisis and seasonality. Non-residentialconstruction demand was disrupted more than residential construction demand at the crisis onset. The residential constructionindustry is more reactive and is able to recover faster following the crisis in comparison with the non-residential industry. The VEC model with intervention indicators developed in this study can be used as an experiment for an advanced econometric method. This can be used to analyse the effects of special eventsand factors not only on construction but also on other industries.

Application of co-operative agents in handling fluctuations in a pull production system

This paper presents the general details of the structure and strategy of a multi-agent system that is being developed to improve the performance of pull (kanban) production control to handle large fluctuations in product demand. Employing a set of generic, heterarchial agents each controlling a single product and co-operating together to ensure that all components, regardless of demand fluctuation, are manufactured on time as per basic kanban principles. Preliminary results indicate that the basic kanban model does not cater for large demand fluctuations and the application of this multi-agent strategy may be beneficial to improving the overall system performance and increase the likelihood that all products will be manufactured on time.

Modelling income group differences in the health and economic impacts of targeted food taxes and subsidies

Objective : To examine the effects, by income group, of targeted food taxes and subsidies on nutrition, health and expenditure in the UK.

Methods : A model based on consumption data and demand elasticity was constructed to predict the effects of four food taxation-subsidy regimens. Resulting changes in demand, expenditure, nutrition, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality were estimated.

Data : Expenditure data were taken from the Expenditure and Food Survey; estimates of price elasticities of demand for food were taken from a report based on the National Food Survey 1988–2000. Estimates of effect on CVD and cancer mortality of changing fat, salt, fruit and vegetable intake were taken from previous meta-analyses.

Results : (i) Taxing principal sources of dietary saturated fat is unlikely to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) or cancer mortality. (ii) Taxing ‘less healthy’ foods (defined by the WXYfm nutrient profiling model) could increase CVD and cancer deaths by 35–1300 yearly. (iii) Taxing ‘less healthy’ foods and subsidising fruits and vegetables by 17.5% could avert up to 2900 CVD and cancer deaths yearly. (iv) Taxing ‘less healthy’ foods and using all tax revenue to subsidize fruits and vegetables could avert up to 6400 CVD and cancer deaths yearly. Few obesity-related CVD deaths are averted by any of the regimens. All four regimens would be economically regressive and positive health effects will not necessarily be greater in lower-income groups where the need for dietary improvement is higher.

Conclusions : A targeted food tax combined with the appropriate subsidy on fruits and vegetables could reduce deaths from CVD and cancer.

Fast food purchasing and access to fast food restaurants : a multilevel analysis of VicLANES

Background : While previous research on fast food access and purchasing has not found evidence of an association, these studies have had methodological problems including aggregation error, lack of specificity between the exposures and outcomes, and lack of adjustment for potential confounding. In this paper we attempt to address these methodological problems using data from the Victorian Lifestyle and Neighbourhood Environments Study (VicLANES) – a cross-sectional multilevel study conducted within metropolitan Melbourne, Australia in 2003.
Methods : The VicLANES data used in this analysis included 2547 participants from 49 census collector districts in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. The outcome of interest was the total frequency of fast food purchased for consumption at home within the previous month (never, monthly and weekly) from five major fast food chains (Red Rooster, McDonalds, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Hungry Jacks and Pizza Hut). Three measures of fast food access were created: density and variety, defined as the number of fast food restaurants and the number of different fast food chains within 3 kilometres of road network distance respectively, and proximity defined as the road network distance to the closest fast food restaurant. Multilevel multinomial models were used to estimate the associations between fast food restaurant access and purchasing with never purchased as the reference category. Models were adjusted for confounders including determinants of demand (attitudes and tastes that influence food purchasing decisions) as well as individual and area socio-economic characteristics.
Results : Purchasing fast food on a monthly basis was related to the variety of fast food restaurants (odds ratio 1.13; 95% confidence interval 1.02 – 1.25) after adjusting for individual and area characteristics. Density and proximity were not found to be significant predictors of fast food purchasing after adjustment for individual socio-economic predictors.
Conclusion : Although we found an independent association between fast food purchasing and access to a wider variety of fast food restaurant, density and proximity were not significant predictors. The methods used in our study are an advance on previous analyses.

The impact of globalisation on building surveying in Europe

This research examined the impact of globalisation on building surveying in Europe. Globalisation has resulted in the emergence of three large trading blocs or a global economy depending on the view one takes. This has impacted on property in two ways, by creating transnational companies who operate in many countries but require branding of their property, and companies who wish to invest in property markets other than their country of origin.

Building Surveyors have professional expertise and knowledge valued in the UK since the 1960 and 1970s but until recently not recognised in Europe, partly due to poor awareness of Building Surveying (BS) expertise, legal constraints, and practises relating to the employment of professionals. This is changing with the establishment of European Surveying associations and the globalisation of the RICS.

The results showed four factors provided the reasons for the globalisation of BS skills. These were that Building Surveyors provided a consistent level of service for their clients. Secondly that English is the language of business. Thirdly, clients perceive Europe as a single trading bloc with a need for technical representation in each investment centre, providing them with a fast, knowledgeable service. Fourthly, clients perceive that UK Building Surveyors know what international, or transnational, investors want.

The finding on the current demand for the BS services in Europe is that though demand is large, few Building Surveyors are located in Europe. Secondly, both investors and occupiers require the services of Building Surveyors, and local companies / individuals are beginning to use their professional services. Finally, there is a diverse range of demand for the many BS skills.

Five key barriers to the practice of BS skills in Europe emerged from the research. Firstly, there was the problem of limited local legal and technical knowledge possessed by outsiders. Secondly, there are legal barriers to practice in some cases. Thirdly, other professionals can, and do, offer the services of the Building Surveyor. Fourthly, there can be cultural differences between ‘values’ and ‘norms’ required in business that constitute barriers. Finally there can be ‘communication’ problems when the Building Surveyor is not located in the country where the service is required.

Police stress : the role of psychological contract and perceptions of fairness

Purpose – The overall purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which breaches in psychological contracts and perceptions of organizational fairness account for variations in job stress experienced by operational police officers (as measured by psychological distress and employee performance), after controlling for the variance associated with more established job stressors (i.e. job demands, job control and social support).

Design/methodology/approach – This study is based on data collected through a self-report survey involving operational members of a large Australian police force (n=582).

Findings – Results of hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicate that vast majority of explained variance in psychological distress and extra-role performance is attributed to the additive effects of demand, control, and support. Furthermore, only one of the social exchange dimensions (interpersonal fairness) is predictive of either target variable.

Research limitations/implications – The limitations that need to be taken into account are the cross-sectional nature of the study design and the focus on a single police service.

Practical implications – Despite the generally weak support for the social exchange variables, there are signs that dimensions of justice (particularly interpersonal justice) should be included in future police-stress investigations. The results also suggest that job characteristics such as job demand, job control and social support should be taken into account when developing strategies to prevent and/or reduce chronic job stress in policing services.

Originality/value – This is one of the first studies to examine the relationships between psychological contract breach, perceptions of fairness and police stress.

Will residential aged care facilities meet long-term demand?

Purpose – This paper aims to provide an invaluable insight into long-term forecasting of demand for aged care facilities. This will ensure the provision of adequate supply by government bodies, stakeholders and developers in order to meet the anticipated level of demand, without creating an over-supply or an under-supply scenario.

Design/methodology/approach – Using an innovative approach, different data sources were collectively used to forecast separate individual supply and demand levels, which were then examined together in order to measure the difference between the two variables between 2009-2020. A case study approach was used for Victoria, Australia.

Findings – The paper finds that, although there is excess supply between 2009-2010 and 2019-2020, the period between 2010 and 2019 will experience an under-supply period which cannot be easily rectified over the short term.

Research limitations/implications – The case study was limited to residential care facilities in Victoria, Australia, although some countries have substantially different age profiles and accommodation supply for older residents. Forecasts are based on information sources from various data suppliers and collectively analysed.

Practical implications – The results are also of direct interest to place managers and planning authorities who are charged with providing medium- and long-term visions and plans for specific locations. This type of research is essential when planning for the eventual aging of the population, where the methodology can be replicated in different areas. Most importantly, this research approach provides a solid basis for decisions regarding the supply of residential aged care facilities as opposed to a simple estimate.

Originality/value – The study adopted a unique approach to analysing the individual supply and demand components for aged care facilities over the long term. This approach is able to accurately determine when there will be an under-supply or over-supply situation and thus provide the opportunity to address the difference before it occurs. This will allow informed decisions about planning aged care facilities in the future to be made as required.