The relationship between the real exchange rate and balance of payments: empirical evidence for China from cointegration and causality testing

This article examines the relationship between the renminbi real exchange rate and China's foreign exchange reserves using cointegration and Granger causality testing. The main findings are that in the long run foreign exchange reserves Granger cause the real exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from foreign exchange reserves to the real exchange rate.

Are real exchange rates nonlinear with a unit root? Evidence on PPP for Italy : a note

In this article, we apply the recently developed threshold autoregression model to examine both linearity and stationarity of Italy's real exchange rate vis--vis her six trading partner (G6) countries. Our main finding is that Italy's real exchange rate is a nonlinear process that is not characterized by a unit root process for five of six trading partner countries. This provides strong support for purchasing power parity.

Estimating exchange rate responsiveness to shocks

The goal of this paper is to examine the importance of permanent and transitory shocks using a more efficient trend-cycle decomposition of the real exchange rate series. Our main contribution is that in measuring the impact of shocks, we not only impose common trend restrictions but also common cycle restrictions. We later confirm, through a post sample forecasting exercise, the efficiency gains from imposing common cycle restrictions. Our results indicate that permanent shocks are responsible for the bulk of the real exchange rate variations for Japan, Italy, Germany, France, and the UK vis-à-vis the US dollar over short horizons. For Canada, however, transitory shocks are dominant over the short horizon. In sum, while for Japan, France, and Italy, around 15% of the variation in real exchange rate is due to transitory shocks, for Canada, Germany and the UK, over 25% of the variations over the short horizon are due to transitory shocks. Thus, we claim that the role of transitory shocks should not be ignored.

Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary? Evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for India

The paper examines the stationarity of India’s real exchange rate vis-a` -vis 16 of its major trading partner countries for the period 1960–2000. Application of the conventional ADF unit root test, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test with one structural break, and the LM unit root test with two structural breaks provides evidence that India’s exchange rate vis-a` -vis 15 out of 16 countries is stationary, implying support for purchasing power parity.

Examining the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate : the case of China's trade with the USA

In this paper, we investigate the nexus between China's trade balance and the real exchange rate vis-à-vis the USA. Using the bounds testing approach to cointegration, we find evidence that China's trade balance and real exchange rate vis-à-vis the USA are cointegrated, and using the autoregressive distributed lag model we find that in both the short run and the long run a real devaluation of the Chinese RMB improves the trade balance; as a result, there is no evidence of a J-curve type adjustment.

The dynamic relationship between real exchange rates, real interest rates and foreign exchange reserves : empirical evidence from China

This article examines the long-run and short-run relationship between China's real exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and the real interest rate differential between China and the United States using monthly data from 1980 to 2002. Extensive testing for unit roots allowing for up to two structural breaks in the trend indicates that the variables are not integrated of the same order. Thus, the bounds testing approach to cointegration is used, which finds that there is a single long-run relationship between the three variables. In the long run the real exchange rate has a statistically significant positive effect on foreign exchange reserves. The coefficient on the real interest rate differential is also positive, but is statistically insignificant. In the short-run it is found that the relationship between the real exchange rate, real interest rate differential and foreign exchange reserves is non-monotonic.

Is exchange rate trading profitable?

We Test whether exchange rate trading is profitable in the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India, And South Africa. Using Momentum trading strategies applied to high frequency data, we discover that: (a) momentum-based trading strategies lead to statistically significant profits from the currencies of all four emerging markets; (b) The South African Rand Is generally the most profitable, followed by the Brazilian Real And the Indian Rupee; (c) Profits are persistent during the day and are trading frequency dependent; and (d) During the period of the global financial crisis currency profits were maximised.

The exchange rate disconnect puzzle: a resolution?

Early empirical studies of exchange rate determinants demonstrated that fundamentals-based monetary models were unable to outperform the benchmark random walk model in out-of-sample forecasts while later papers found evidence in favor of long-run exchange rate predictability. More recent theoretical works have adopted a microeconomic structure; a utility-based new open economy macroeconomic framework and a rational expectations present value model. Some recent empirical work argues that if the models are adjusted for parameter instability, it is a good predictor of nominal exchange rates while others use aggregate idiosyncratic volatility to generate good predictions. This latest research supports the idea that fundamental economic variables are likely to influence exchange rates especially in the long run and further that the emphasis should change to the economic value or utility based value to assess these macroeconomic models.

Exchange rate exposure, foreign currency derivatives and the introduction of the euro: French evidence

We investigate the impact of the introduction of the Euro on exchange rate exposures for French corporations and examine the corporate use of foreign currency derivatives to hedge exchange rate exposure post-Euro. Our findings indicate that the introduction of the Euro is associated with both a reduction in the number of firms that have significant exchange rate exposure and the absolute size of exposure. Consistent with these reduced exposures, French firms use foreign currency derivatives less intensively. Furthermore, the use of foreign currency derivatives is found to be associated with lower exchange rate exposure but there is insufficient evidence that these instruments are more effective in the post-Euro environment.

A model of the Australia-US exchange rate

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination within an error correction framework. The intention is to identify both long and short term determinants that can be used to forecast the AUD/US exchange rate. The paper identifies a set of significant variables associated with exchange rate movements over a twenty year period from 1984 to 2004. Specifically, the overnight interest rate differential, Australia's foreign trade-weighted exposure to commodity prices as well as exchange rate volatility are variables identified that are able explain movements in the AUDIUS dollar relationship. An error correction model is subsequently constructed that incorporates an equilibrium correction term, a short-term interest rate differential variable, a commodity price variable and a proxy for exchange rate volatility. The model is then used to forecast out of sample and is found to dominate a naIve random walk model based on three different metrics.