3 resultados para Rare event probability

em Deakin Research Online - Australia


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Sphacelaria biradiata Askenasy is a little known but common brown alga of southern Australian coasts. This paper describes its reproduction. Populations of S. biradiata reproduced asexually by vegetative propagules in all localities examined. The propagules were produced throughout the year and did not appear to be affected by season, although, if sexual structures occurred, propagule numbers declined. Sexual reproduction can occur and involves an alternation of generations, but it is a rare event. Gametophytes may produce male gametangia, female gametangia or both. Male gametangia, however, are extremely rare and are described for the first time. Production of female gametangia was influenced by season and occurred at all areas studied. The sexual behaviour of the male and female gametes is described.

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BACKGROUND: Suicide is a statistically rare event, but devastating to those left behind and one of the worst possible outcomes associated with mental illness. Although a friend, family member or co-worker may be the first person to notice that a person is highly distressed, few have the knowledge and skills required to assist. Simple guidelines may help such a person to encourage a suicidal individual to seek professional help or decide against suicide.

METHODS: This research was conducted using the Delphi methodology, a method of reaching consensus in a panel of experts. Experts recruited to the panels included 22 professionals, 10 people who had been suicidal in the past and 6 carers of people who had been suicidal in the past. Statements about how to assist someone who is thinking about suicide were sourced through a systematic search of both professional and lay literature. The guidelines were written using the items most consistently endorsed by all three panels.

RESULTS: Of 114 statements presented to the panels, 30 were accepted. These statements were used to develop the guidelines appended to this paper.

CONCLUSION: There are a number of actions which are considered to be useful for members of the public when they encounter someone who is experiencing suicidal thoughts or engaging in suicidal behaviour. These guidelines will be useful in revision of curricula of mental health first aid and suicide intervention training programs. They can also be used by members of the public who want immediate information about how to assist a suicidal person.

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Aim: Knowledge of how climate and fire regimes affect regeneration in foundation species is critical to the conservation of entire ecosystems. Different stages of regeneration often require different ecological conditions, but dynamic constraints on regeneration are poorly known for species that regenerate only after infrequent wildfires. Focussing on a long-lived, foundation tree species (Eucalyptus regnans), we tested the hypothesis that the relative importance of fire regime variables (fire severity and time since previous fire) and environmental gradients on post-fire regeneration would shift as seedlings developed. Location: South-eastern Australia. Methods: Following a large (> 59,000 ha) summer wildfire in 2009, we sampled 131 sites (61 burnt) annually for four years (2009-2012), representing the range of environmental conditions in which E. regnans occurs. We analysed the effect of fire severity, time since fire and environmental variables on early regeneration processes critical for post-fire species distributions: seedling establishment, seedling density and growth through different height stages (10 cm, 25 cm, 50 cm and 200 cm). Results: The regeneration niche of E. regnans was defined by different factors at different stages of development. Initially, seedlings established prolifically on burnt sites, regardless of severity. Three years into the regeneration process, high-severity fire became the dominant driver of seedling persistence and growth over 25 cm. Growth over 50 cm was dependent on environmental conditions relating to elevation and precipitation. Main conclusions: Our results describe how fire occurrence, fire severity and environmental gradients affected seedling establishment, persistence and growth. The dynamic constraints on regeneration likely reflect temporal changes in the biotic and abiotic environment and variation in resource requirements during the early post-fire years. Our findings will enable more accurate forecasts of species distributions to assist forest conservation in the face of global changes in climate and fire regimes.