Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

New progress in the study of Paleozoic strata in the Xainza area, Tibet

The authors discovered and measured a relatively complete Paleozoic section (exposed continuously from the Lower Ordovician to Upper Permian) and collected plentiful fossils of many groups during geological investigations of the 1∶250000 Xainza County Sheet in the period of 2000-2002. It was the first time in Tibet that the representative element Tetragraptus (Paratetragraptus) approximatus of the graptolite zone at the lowermost part of the Early Ordovician Arenigian Stage and the typical elements Waagenophyllum indicum var. crassiseptatum and Liangshanophyllum streploseptatum Graptolithina of the Late Permian Wujiapingian coral fauna. Based on these, the Lower Ordovician Zakang Formation and Upper Permian Mujiu Co Formation were established. It not only improved the Paleozoic stratigraphic sequence in the area but also provided new information for the study of the Paleozoic tectonic movement and evolution of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Discovery of the Early Ordovician strata in Xianza County, Tibet and its significance

There is no any sediments contain fossils which formed earlier than Middle Ordovician in northern Tibet yet. It is very important whether have developed the Cambrian to Early Ordovician sedimentary strata. During geological mapping of Xainza County in 2000, Tetragraptus approximatus, the typical one of graptolite belts which cosmepolitically distributed in the Arenigian of Early Ordovician, was collected from the so-call Pre-Sinian Nianqingtanggula Group. So there is developped the Early Ordovician sediments and we have established Zakang Formation and Taduo Formation which perfected the Plaeozoic sequences in northern Tibet. According to these, we can realize tectonic control, palaeogeographrc pattern as well as palaeobiogeographic distribution of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the early Paleozoic and also provided the materials to the cosmepolitical biostratigraphic contrast.

In the circle of white stones: moving through seasons with nomads of Eastern Tibet

This narrative of subsistence on the Tibetan plateau describes the life-worlds of people in a region traditionally known as Kham who move with their yaks from pasture to pasture, depending on the milk production of their herd for sustenance. Gillian Tan's story, based on her own experience of living through seasonal cycles with the people of Dora Karmo between 2006 and 2013, examines the community's powerful relationship with a Buddhist lama and their interactions with external agents of change. In showing how they perceive their environment and dwell in their world, Tan conveys a spare beauty that honors the stillness and rhythms of nomadic life.

A new Brachiopod fauna from the early to middle permian of Southern Qinghai Province, Northwest China

A new brachiopod fauna is described from the Early and Middle Permian of Zadoi and Zhidoi counties, southern Qinghai (Changdu block), northwest China. This fauna includes 13 species in nine genera with Spinomarginifera concentrica n. sp. and Transennatia waterhousei n. sp. The Early to Middle Permian brachiopod fauna from southern Qinghai is very similar to the contemporary Cathaysian faunas of South China with which the new fauna shares 70 per cent of its species. On the other hand, the Qinghai brachiopods also demonstrate a significant link with the Permian brachiopod fauna of the Sino-Mongolian-Japanese Province in northeast China, as suggested by Marginifera septentrionalis and Attenuatella. In particular, the occurrence of the bipolar brachiopod genus Attenuatella suggests that southern Qinghai may have played an important role as a biogeographic stepping stone in the marine faunal interchanges between the northern and southern hemispheres during the Early and Middle Permian.

Protecting the Tay Nguyen gongs : conflicting rights in Vietnam’s central plateau

This theoretically innovative anthology investigates the problematic linkages between conserving cultural heritage, maintaining cultural diversity, defining and establishing cultural citizenship, and enforcing human rights.

It is the first publication to address the notions of cultural diversity, cultural heritage and human rights in one volume. Heritage provides the basis of humanity’s rich cultural diversity. While there is a considerable literature dealing separately with cultural diversity, cultural heritage and human rights, this book is distinctive and has contemporary relevance in focusing on the intersection between the three concepts. Cultural Diversity, Heritage and Human Rights establishes a fresh approach that will interest students and practitioners alike and on which future work in the heritage field might proceed.

Senses of waiting among Tibetan nomads

Ethnographic vignettes on how Tibetan nomads move describe a modality of waiting that is attuned to the rhythms and syncopations of movement through pastures and the life-cycle. Such waiting complements moving and is in time. How waiting is experienced reveals an important facet of one's synchronicity with time and place.

An ethnography of life and changes among Tibetan nomads of Minyag Dora Karmo, Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province

This article describes the pastoral movements and material culture of a community of nomads in Eastern Tibet and how they negotiate changes brought about not only by national government policies and international development plans, but also by a local lama.