Probabilistic assessment of fill slope stability

Conventional slope stability analyses have commonly been based on a deterministic approach. Various deterministic-based analysis methods developed to date can assess the stability of a given slope using the factor of safety. However, it has been strongly debated that the use of only the factor of safety does not explicitly account for the uncertainties in soil parameters. In light of this, this paper uses the finite element limit analysis methods and conducts a probabilistic-based analysis of fill slope for the specific case of two-layered undrained clay. Results obtained show that slopes with large variations in soil properties may present an extremely high risk of a slope failure and this cannot be known if only a deterministic-based analysis is performed. Thus, this shows that more soil investigations can be performed to reduce the variation of the soil properties thereby reducing the risk of a slope failure. Different probabilistic charts based on different coefficients of variation in soil properties are provided in this paper. This study demonstrates that the finite element limit analysis methods can be applied in a probabilistic analysis.

Pattern discovery in probabilistic databases

Modeling probabilistic data is one of important issues in databases due to the fact that data is often uncertainty in real-world applications. So, it is necessary to identify potentially useful patterns in probabilistic databases. Because probabilistic data in 1NF relations is redundant, previous mining techniques don’t work well on probabilistic databases. For this reason, this paper proposes a new model for mining probabilistic databases. A partition is thus developed for preprocessing probabilistic data in a probabilistic databases. We evaluated the proposed technique, and the experimental results demonstrate that our approach is effective and efficient.

An optimal strategy for extracting probabilistic rules by combining rough sets and genetic algorithm

This paper proposes an optimal strategy for extracting probabilistic rules from databases. Two inductive learning-based statistic measures and their rough set-based definitions: accuracy and coverage are introduced. The simplicity of a rule emphasized in this paper has previously been ignored in the discovery of probabilistic rules. To avoid the high computational complexity of rough-set approach, some rough-set terminologies rather than the approach itself are applied to represent the probabilistic rules. The genetic algorithm is exploited to find the optimal probabilistic rules that have the highest accuracy and coverage, and shortest length. Some heuristic genetic operators are also utilized in order to make the global searching and evolution of rules more efficiently. Experimental results have revealed that it run more efficiently and generate probabilistic classification rules of the same integrity when compared with traditional classification methods.

Probabilistic reasoning of inconsistent belief in protocol analysis

Security protocols have been recently found with subtle flaws due to incomplete or ambiguous specification. Although formal methods have remarkably assisted in protocol analysis, they ignores the effect of hostile/uncertain environment, which might lead to inconsistent belief that can be held by principals in delivered messages. This discrepant belief may prevent us from representing the insecurity and uncertainty in a real trading situation. Unfortunately, the current approaches lack the ability to handle the inconsistent belief. This article presents a probabilistic method, which intuitively measures the belief from different principals that can be put on the goal of the protocol. The experiments demonstrate our method is useful to enhance the protocol analysis.

Effect of social background on the development of probabilistic concepts

This research explores how the social backgrounds of a group of students contributed to their intuitive knowledge in probabilistic reasoning, and influenced their processing of the associated mathematics. A group of Year 11 students who came from families for whom the phenomenon of track gambling formed an important part of their cultural background was identified. Another group consisting of students in the same mathematics course (Year 11 Maths in Society) but from families for whom the phenomenon of gambling in any form was totally absent from their social backgrounds was identified. Twenty students were selected from each group. The research employed a qualitative methodology in which a phenomenographic approach was used to investigate the qualitatively different ways in which individuals within the two groups thought about concepts involving probabilistic reasoning, and processed the related mathematical skills and concepts. The cognitive processes involved in the applications of probabilistic and related mathematical concepts in a variety of both gambling and non-gambling situations were studied in order to determine whether this culturally based knowledge could be viewed as a type of ‘ethnomathematics.’ Data were obtained through individual structured interviews which enabled patterns of reasoning to be compared and contrasted. Analyses of these data enabled intuitive mathematical understandings possessed by the gamblers not only to be identified, but also to be linked with their social backgrounds. Also differences between how individuals in the two groups processed probabilistic and associated mathematical knowledge were determined. This research complements and extends existing knowledge and theories related to culturally-based mathematical knowledge. Implications for further research, for classroom teaching, and for curriculum development in the study of probability in senior secondary mathematics classes are discussed.

Comparison of different maximum safe levels in fortified foods and supplements using a probabilistic risk assessment approach

Different European institutions have developed mathematical models to propose maximum safe levels either for fortified foods or for dietary supplements. The objective of the present study was to compare and check the safety of these different maximum safe levels (MSL) by using a probabilistic risk assessment approach. The potential maximum nutritional intakes were estimated by taking into account all sources of intakes (base diet, fortified foods and dietary supplements) and compared with the tolerable upper intake levels for vitamins and minerals. This approach simulated the consequences of both food fortification and supplementation in terms of food safety. Different scenarios were tested. They are the result of the combination of several MSL obtained using the previous models. The study was based on the second French Individual and National Study on Food Consumption performed in 2006–7, matched with the French food nutritional composition database. The analyses were based on a sample of 1918 adults aged 18–79 years. Some MSL in fortified foods and dietary supplements obtained independently were protective enough, although some others could lead to nutritional intakes above the tolerable upper intake levels. The simulation showed that it is crucial to consider the inter-individual variability of fortified food intakes when setting MSL for foods and supplements. The risk assessment approach developed here by integrating the MSL for fortified foods and dietary supplements is useful for ensuring consumer protection. It may be subsequently used to test any other MSL for vitamins and minerals proposed in the future.

Three dimensional stability charts for slopes based on limit analysis methods

This paper uses finite element upper and lower bound limit analysis to produce chart solutions for three-dimensional (3D) natural slopes for both short- and long-term stability. The presented chart solutions are convenient tools that can be used for preliminary design purposes. The rigorous limit analysis results in this paper were found to bracket the true factor of safety within ±10% or better, which can be used as a benchmark for the solutions from other methods. The depth of the slip surfaces is observed to be generally shallow for most analyzed cases, particularly for the long-term slope stability problem. In addition, it was found that using a two-dimensional (2D) analysis may lead to significant differences in estimating safety factors, which can differ by 2%–60% depending on the slope geometry and soil properties. Therefore, great care and judgement are required when applying 2D analyses to 3D slope problems.

A probabilistic movement model for shortest path formation in virtual ant-like agents

We propose a probabilistic movement model for controlling ant-like agents foraging between two points. Such agents are all identical, simple, autonomous and can only communicate indirectly through the environment. These agents secrete two types of pheromone, one to mark trails towards the goal and another to mark trails back to the starting point. Three pheromone perception strategies are proposed (Strategy A, B and C). Agents that use strategy A perceive the desirability of a neighbouring location as the difference between levels of attractive and repulsive pheromone in that location. With strategy B, agents perceive the desirability of a location as the quotient of levels of attractive and repulsive pheromone. Agents using strategy C determine the product of the levels of attractive pheromone with the complement of levels of repulsive pheromone. We conduct experiments to confirm directionality as emergent property of trails formed by agents that use each strategy. In addition, we compare path formation speed and the quality of the formed path under changes in the environment. We also investigate each strategy's robustness in environments that contain obstacles. Finally, we investigate how adaptive each strategy is when obstacles are eventually removed from the scene and find that the best strategy of these three is strategy A. Such a strategy provides useful guidelines to researchers in further applications of swarm intelligence metaphors for complex problem solving.

A probabilistic framework for extracting narrative act boundaries and semantics in motion pictures

This work constitutes the first attempt to extract the important narrative structure, the 3-Act storytelling paradigm in film. Widely prevalent in the domain of film, it forms the foundation and framework in which a film can be made to function as an effective tool for story telling, and its extraction is a vital step in automatic content management for film data. The identification of act boundaries allows for structuralizing film at a level far higher than existing segmentation frameworks, which include shot detection and scene identification, and provides a basis for inferences about the semantic content of dramatic events in film. A novel act boundary likelihood function for Act 1 and 2 is derived using a Bayesian formulation under guidance from film grammar, tested under many configurations and the results are reported for experiments involving 25 full-length movies. The result proves to be a useful tool in both the automatic and semi-interactive setting for semantic analysis of film, with potential application to analogues occuring in many other domains, including news, training video, sitcoms.

Layered dynamic probabilistic networks for spatio-temporal modelling

In applications such as tracking and surveillance in large spatial environments, there is a need for representing dynamic and noisy data and at the same time dealing with them at different levels of detail. In the spatial domain, there has been work dealing with these two issues separately, however, there is no existing common framework for dealing with both of them. In this paper, we propose a new representation framework called the Layered Dynamic Probabilistic Network (LDPN), a special type of Dynamic Probabilistic Network (DPN), capable of handling uncertainty and representing spatial data at various levels of detail. The framework is thus particularly suited to applications in wide-area environments which are characterised by large region size, complex spatial layout and multiple sensors/cameras. For example, a building has three levels: entry/exit to the building, entry/exit between rooms and moving within rooms. To avoid the problem of a relatively large state space associated with a large spatial environment, the LDPN explicitly encodes the hierarchy of connected spatial locations, making it scalable to the size of the environment being modelled. There are three main advantages of the LDPN. First, the reduction in state space makes it suitable for dealing with wide area surveillance involving multiple sensors. Second, it offers a hierarchy of intervals for indexing temporal data. Lastly, the explicit representation of intermediate sub-goals allows for the extension of the framework to easily represent group interactions by allowing coupling between sub-goal layers of different individuals or objects. We describe an adaptation of the likelihood sampling inference scheme for the LDPN, and illustrate its use in a hypothetical surveillance scenario.

A probabilistic framework for tracking in wide-area environments

Surveillance in wide-area spatial environments is characterised by complex spatial layouts, large state space, and the use of multiple cameras/sensors. To solve this problem, there is a need for representing the dynamic and noisy data in the tracking tasks, and dealing with them at different levels of detail. This requirement is particularly suited to the Layered Dynamic Probabilistic Network (LDPN), a special type of Dynamic Probabilistic Network (DPN). In this paper, we propose the use of LDPN as the integrated framework for tracking in wide-area environments. We illustrate, with the help of a synthetic tracking scenario, how the parameters of the LDPN can be estimated from training data, and then used to draw predictions and answer queries about unseen tracks at various levels of detail.

A probabilistic model with parsinomious representation for sensor fusion in recognizing activity in pervasive environment

To tackle the problem of increasing numbers of state transition parameters when the number of sensors increases, we present a probabilistic model together with several parsinomious representations for sensor fusion. These include context specific independence (CSI), mixtures of smaller multinomials and softmax function representations to compactly represent the state transitions of a large number of sensors. The model is evaluated on real-world data acquired through ubiquitous sensors in recognizing daily morning activities. The results show that the combination of CSI and mixtures of smaller multinomials achieves comparable performance with much fewer parameters.