Mimicry and the eye of the beholder

Recent experiments (Dittrich et al. (Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 251, 195 (1993))) suggest that pigeon perception of wasp mimicry by hoverflies is similar to that of humans and of computer-based image matching. However, the relations are nonlinear and may explain why some species are abundant despite their being poor mimics to the human eye. We suggest that these discrepancies between pigeon and human categorization may lie in the differences between avian and primate colour vision. As pigeon categorization and computer image analysis were both assessed by using colour slides designed for human vision, they lacked the natural colour information available to wild birds, in particular that from ultraviolet (uv) wavelengths.

SAS macros for point and interval estimation of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models

Aims and objectives  For prediction of risk of cardiovascular end points using survival models the proportional hazards assumption is often not met. Thus, non-proportional hazards models are more appropriate for developing risk prediction equations in such situations. However, computer program for evaluating the prediction performance of such models has been rarely addressed. We therefore developed SAS macro programs for evaluating the discriminative ability of a non-proportional hazards Weibull model developed by Anderson (1991) and that of a proportional hazards Weibull model using the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Method  Two SAS macro programs for non-proportional hazards Weibull model using Proc NLIN and Proc NLP respectively and model validation using area under ROC curve (with its confidence limits) were written with SAS IML language. A similar SAS macro for proportional hazards Weibull model was also written.

Results  The computer program was applied to data on coronary heart disease incidence for a Framingham population cohort. The five risk factors considered were current smoking, age, blood pressure, cholesterol and obesity. The predictive ability of the non-proportional hazard Weibull model was slightly higher than that of its proportional hazard counterpart. An advantage of SAS Proc NLP in terms of the example provided here is that it provides significance level for the parameter estimates whereas Proc NLIN does not.

Conclusion  The program is very useful for evaluating the predictive performance of non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models.

Fabrication, microstructure and mechanical properties of high performance ferrite-bainite steels

Low cost ferrite and bainite(FB) steels offer the prospect of high ultimate tensile strength combined with high hole expansion ratio. The enhanced strain hardening and formabilityof FB steels were primarily associated with the fine ferrite matrix, the low residual stresses and dislocation densityand compatible deformation between both phases.This overview describes the various techniques to produce FB steels, and comparestheresulting microstructure, tensile propertiesand tretchflangeabilitywith conventional HSLA and DP steels.A new generation of ultrafine ferrite and nano-scalebainiteautomotive steelsisunder development forthe futuredemands of extremely high strength and ductilitythroughthe fabricationtechnologiesinvolvingphase transformationsandplastic deformation.