Common trends and common cycles in stock markets

In this paper we examine the role of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in the S&P 500, Dow Jones and the NASDAQ. Our modeling technique involves imposing both common trend and common cycle restrictions in extracting the variance decomposition of shocks. We find that: (1) the three stock price indices are characterized by a common trend and common cycle relationship; and (2) permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in stock prices over short horizons.

Resale price maintenance - in need of further reform

The Competition Policy Reform Act extended the resale price maintenance provisions of the Trade Practices Act 1974 to include services and provide for authorisation where the conduct can be shown to benefit the public such that it should be allowed. This article explores the scope of these changes and their shortcomings. It also seeks to provide some guidance as to their likely application and makes recommendations for further reform.

Interpreting changes in heroin supply in melbourne: droughts, gluts or cycles?

In this Harm Reduction Digest Paul Dietze and John Fitzgerald provide another possible way of understanding what has come to be referred to as Australia's heroin 'drought'. They examine evidence from Melbourne, Victoria and suggest that the apparent downturn in heroin availability in 2000 may, in part, be the result of an end of a heroin 'glut' and that perceptions of this phenomenon may be coloured by the development of more sophisticated indicators of the heroin market. They conclude with claims that the reasons for the reduction in drug consumption and adverse health outcomes, such as those attributed to interdiction, are thus premature.

Price exhaustion and number preference : time and price confluence in Australian stock prices

Confluence occurs when different trading filters generate signals that point to the same directional move. Using regression analysis, this paper investigates confluence trading signals associated with number preference and price exhaustion, for a sample of Australian stocks. The results show that certain price levels tend to act as psychological barriers, and that price exhaustion signals are a real phenomenon in the Australian stock market. It is shown also that confluence exists in the Australian stock market. Importantly, confluence is associated with price retracements that are of economic and statistical significance, offering profitable trading opportunities. The results suggest that Australian stocks do not follow a random walk.

The culture-based fisheries in small, farmer-managed reservoirs in two provinces of northern Vietnam: an evaluation based on three production cycles

In this paper the results of a study conducted on the culture-based fisheries in small (ranging from 2 to 160 ha), farmer-managed reservoirs in YenBai and ThaiNguyen Provinces in the northern highland region of Vietnam, for the production cycles of 1997/98, 98/99 and 99/00 are presented. The small reservoirs are leased to small farmers by the provincial authorities for fishery activities, and all lessees adopt culture-based fisheries when fingerlings of grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella), silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix), bighead carp (Aristichthys nobilis), common carp (Cyprinus carpio) and mrigal (Cirrihinus mrigala) are stocked between March and mid-April each year and harvested, using large seine nets, after approximately 11-12 months. The mean yields from reservoirs in YenBai and ThaiNguyen Provinces in 97/98, 98/99 and 99/00 production cycles were 251, 332 and 253, and 331, 372 and 210 kg ha⁻¹ respectively. There were major differences in the fish productivity in the reservoirs in the two Provinces, and in a reservoir between culture cycles. The stocking strategies appeared to be rather ad hoc, being determined by the availability of seed stock and the financial status of the lessees. Accordingly, there was no apparent consistent trend in the improvement of yields from the culture-based fishery practice throughout the growth cycles. The fish yields in reservoirs in each Province were significantly related to reservoir area (exponentially) and to mean weight of stocked fish and conductivity (logarithmically). Of the stocked fish, the highest returns were obtained with mrigal and bighead carp, which collectively contributed > 50% to the harvest. The return from common carp was the lowest. The mean growth rate of grass carp (2.7 g day⁻¹), followed by bighead carp (2.0 g day⁻¹) was the highest in reservoirs in YenBai Province, bighead carp (4.0 g day⁻¹) followed by grass carp (3.2 g day⁻¹) was the highest in ThaiNguyen Province. The seed stocked on average accounted for 65% and 48% of the total operating costs in YenBai and ThaiNguyen Provinces, and the mean cost:benefit ratio of the culture-based fishery in the two Provinces was 0.35 and 0.37 respectively. The culture-based fishery on average contributed about 28% to the gross income of a farmer lessee.

If the price is right : vagueness and values clarification in contingent valuation

The use of willingness to pay to value the benefits of health care is increasing. Much of this work assumes that health preferences are well formed or complete and readily revealed if the right question is asked in the right way. We examined this assumption, seeking evidence in a mixed-methods study that explored the meaning and implications of vague responses to a payment-scale based willingness to pay exercise.

One-half of the sample said that their vagueness meant that their maximum willingness to pay was actually greater than the amount that they had previously said it was. Thirty percent agreed that they would probably pay £10 more than a sum that they had previously said they would most definitely not pay, if they found this to be the cost of the vaccine. Interview data supported the view that the payment scale had failed to elicit the maximum willingness to pay and that some participants used the information on cost to help clarify their values, in contrast to the theory underpinning willingness to pay. The results suggest a need to consider values-clarification in health economic evaluations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Examination of environmental beliefs and its impact on the influence of price, quality and demographic characteristics with respect to green intention

Research indicates that the environment has had a definite impact on consumer behaviour whereby suggesting to target consumers according to their environmental beliefs. This study investigated the consumers' green purchase behaviour using price and quality attributes as contributors to the formation of purchase intention. It attempts to construct a model that may facilitate the better understanding of green consumers' market segments through the use of an intelligent soft computing model. The model is designed to incorporate knowledge, beliefs, demographic profiles and situational variables. This potentially provides a more direct method for companies to gauge consumers' intention to purchase green products. The results showed strong preference for companies to place higher priority on reducing pollution than on increasing profitability. It highlighted different clusters that demonstrate various levels of the strength of intention to purchase and market segment profiles.

Granger causality among house price and macroeconomic variables in Victoria

This study analyses the dynamic causality of four macroeconomic variables on house prices. The four macroeconomic variables have interrelationships with house prices in certain lagged terms, but these relationships are not always the same as the notions put forward in prior research. The relationships are detected to be unstable in the three observation periods. The instability of these relationships would cause difficulty in predicting house prices in the market, especially for policy makers and market participants.

Housing price diffusion pattern of Australia's state capital cities

The ripple effect of house prices within metropolitan areas has recently been recognised by researchers. However, it is very difficult to formulate and measure this effect using conventional house price theories particularly in consideration of the spatial locations of cities. Based on econometrics principles of the cointegration test and the error correction model, this research develops an innovative approach to quantitatively examine the diffusion patterns of house prices in mega-cities of a country. Taking Australia's eight capital cities as an example, the proposed approach is validated in terms of an empirical study. The results show that a 1-1-2-4 diffusion pattern exists within these cities. Sydney is on the top tier with Melbourne in the second; Perth and Adelaide are in the third level and the other four cities lie on the bottom. This research may be applied to predict the regional housing market behavior in a country.

Modelling oil price volatility

In this paper, we examine the volatility of crude oil price using daily data for the period 1991–2006. Our main innovation is that we examine volatility in various sub-samples in order to judge the robustness of our results. Our main findings can be summarised as follows: (1) across the various sub-samples, there is inconsistent evidence of asymmetry and persistence of shocks; and (2) over the full sample period, evidence suggests that shocks have permanent effects, and asymmetric effects, on volatility. These findings imply that the behaviour of oil prices tends to change over short periods of time.

Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands

The goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between real GDP and oil prices using time series data for the period 1970–2005. Our main finding is that an increase in oil has a positive, albeit inelastic, impact on real GDP, inconsistent with the bulk of the literature. We argue that this is not a surprising result for the Fiji Islands. Our central argument focuses on two aspects of the Fijian economy: (1) the fact that actual output in Fiji has been around 50 per cent less than potential output; thus, Fiji's actual output has not reached a threshold level at which oil prices can negatively impact output; and (2) a rise in oil prices filters through to value added, which in turn is reflected in a larger actual output.

Fundamental determinants of the Australian price-earnings multiple

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the factors fundamental to the setting of the price–earnings (P–E) multiple for the Australian stock market. The quarterly P–E ratio for the ASX 200 index is used as a measure of the market wide P–E multiple. It is demonstrated that a large portion of the variation in the P–E multiple can be explained by the dividend payout ratio, interest rates and GDP growth rates. In addition, consumers' confidence—a leading indicator of future growth opportunities, the Australian–US exchange rate—a key determinant of the competitiveness of domestic companies, and volatility of domestic market returns—a risk factor, have incremental explanatory power.