The market for software in the U.S.

The US market for software is investigated for the period 1964 to 2000, exploring the impact of price and non-price variables on software demand. and the impact of R&D and productivity on software supply. Software sales are positively associated with advertising, they are negatively affected by a rising consumer credit to GDP ratio. and are highly responsive to disposable income. Supply has been driven by productivity improvements.

Cost effectiveness of a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax in the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption through taxation is a promising public health response to the obesity epidemic in the U.S. This study quantifies the expected health and economic benefits of a national sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax of $0.01/ounce over 10 years. METHODS: A cohort model was used to simulate the impact of the tax on BMI. Assuming ongoing implementation and effect maintenance, quality-adjusted life-years gained and disability-adjusted life-years and healthcare costs averted were estimated over the 2015-2025 period for the 2015 U.S. POPULATION: Costs and health gains were discounted at 3% annually. Data were analyzed in 2014. RESULTS: Implementing the tax nationally would cost $51 million in the first year. The tax would reduce sugar-sweetened beverage consumption by 20% and mean BMI by 0.16 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]=0.06, 0.37) units among youth and 0.08 (95% UI=0.03, 0.20) units among adults in the second year for a cost of $3.16 (95% UI=$1.24, $8.14) per BMI unit reduced. From 2015 to 2025, the policy would avert 101,000 disability-adjusted life-years (95% UI=34,800, 249,000); gain 871,000 quality-adjusted life-years (95% UI=342,000, 2,030,000); and result in $23.6 billion (95% UI=$9.33 billion, $54.9 billion) in healthcare cost savings. The tax would generate $12.5 billion in annual revenue (95% UI=$8.92, billion, $14.1 billion). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed tax could substantially reduce BMI and healthcare expenditures and increase healthy life expectancy. Concerns regarding the potentially regressive tax may be addressed by reduced obesity disparities and progressive earmarking of tax revenue for health promotion.

Modeling the cost effectiveness of child care policy changes in the U.S.

INTRODUCTION: Child care facilities influence diet and physical activity, making them ideal obesity prevention settings. The purpose of this study is to quantify the health and economic impacts of a multi-component regulatory obesity policy intervention in licensed U.S. child care facilities. METHODS: Two-year costs and BMI changes resulting from changes in beverage, physical activity, and screen time regulations affecting a cohort of up to 6.5 million preschool-aged children attending child care facilities were estimated in 2014 using published data. A Markov cohort model simulated the intervention's impact on changes in the U.S. population from 2015 to 2025, including short-term BMI effects and 10-year healthcare expenditures. Future outcomes were discounted at 3% annually. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses simulated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) around outcomes. RESULTS: Regulatory changes would lead children to watch less TV, get more minutes of moderate and vigorous physical activity, and consume fewer sugar-sweetened beverages. Within the 6.5 million eligible population, national implementation could reach 3.69 million children, cost $4.82 million in the first year, and result in 0.0186 fewer BMI units (95% UI=0.00592 kg/m(2), 0.0434 kg/m(2)) per eligible child at a cost of $57.80 per BMI unit avoided. Over 10 years, these effects would result in net healthcare cost savings of $51.6 (95% UI=$14.2, $134) million. The intervention is 94.7% likely to be cost saving by 2025. CONCLUSIONS: Changing child care regulations could have a small but meaningful impact on short-term BMI at low cost. If effects are maintained for 10 years, obesity-related healthcare cost savings are likely.

Presbyterian ethos and environment in the novels of John Buchan : a religious and historical study

The aim of this thesis is to establish, from a historical and religious perspective, that the Presbyterian ethos and environment in which John Buchan was reared was the predominating influence in the writing of his novels. Presbyterianism was not the only influence on Buchan that determined the character of his stories. Buchan was by temperament a romantic, and this had considerable influence on his literature. His novels are romances, peopled by romantic figures who pursue romantic adventures. There are the signs of Buchan's romantic nature in the contents of the novels: creative imagination, sensitivity to nature, and expectations of the intrusion of other worlds, with destiny-determining events to follow. But Buchan had also an acquired classicism. His studies at Glasgow and Oxford Universities brought him in touch with a whole range of the master-pieces of classical literature, especially the works of Plato and Virgil. This discipline gave him clarity and conciseness in style, and balanced the romantic element in him, keeping his work within the bounds of reason. At the heart of Buchan's life and work, however, was his deeply religious nature and this, while influenced by romanticism and classicism, was the dominant force behind his work. Buchan did not accept in its entirety the Presbyterian doctrine conveyed to him by his father and his Church. He was moderate by temperament and shrank from excesses in religious matters, and, being a romantic, he shied away from any fixed creeds. He did embrace the fundamentals of Christianity, however, which he learned from his father and his Church, even if he did put aside the Rev. John's orthodox Calvinism. The basic Christianity which underlies all Buchan's novels has the stamp of Presbyterianism upon it, and that stamp is evident in his characters and their adventures. The expression of Christianity which Buchan embraced was the Christian Platonism of seventeenth century theologians, who taught and preached at Cambridge University, They gave prominence to the place of reason and conscience in man's search for God, They believed that reason and conscience were the ‘candle of the Lord’ which was existed every one. It was their conviction that, if that light was followed, it would lead men and women to God. They were against superstition and fanaticism in religion, against all forms of persecution for religious beliefs, and insisted that God could only be known by renouncing evil and setting oneself to live according to God’s will. This teaching Buchan received, but the stamp of his Presbyterianism was not obliterated. The basic doctrines which arose from his father's Presbyterianism and are to be found in Buchan's novels are as follows: a. the fear (or awe) of God, as life's basic religious attitude; b. the Providence of God as the ultimate determinative force in the outcome of events; c. the reality, malignity and universality of evil which must be forcefully and constantly resisted; d. the dignity of human beings in bearing God's image; e. the conviction that life has meaning and that its ultimate goal, therefore, is a spiritual one - as opposed to the accumulation of wealth, the achieving of recognition from society, and the gaining access to power; f. the necessity of challenge in life for growth and fulfilment, and the importance of fortitude in successfully meeting such challenge; g. the belief that, in the purpose of God, the weak confound the strong. These emphases of Presbyterianism are to be found in all Buchan's novels, to a greater or lesser degree. All his characters are serious people, with a moral purpose in life. Like the pilgrims of the Bible, they seek a country: true fulfilment. This quest becomes more spiritual and more dearly defined as Buchan grows in age and maturity. The progress is to be traced from his early novels, where fulfilment is sought in honour and self-approving competence, as advocated by classicism; to the novels of his middle years, where fulfilment is sought in adventures suggested by romanticism. In his final novel Sick Heart River. Buchan appears to have moved somewhat from his earlier classicism and his romanticism as the road to fulfilment. In this novel, Buchan expresses what, for him, is ultimate fulfilment: a conversion to God that produces self-sacrificing love for others. The terminally-ill Edward Leithen sets out on a romantic adventure that will enable him to die with dignity, and so, in classic style, justify his existence. He has a belief in God, but in a God who is almighty, distant and largely irrelevant to Leithen's life. In the frozen North of Canada, where he expects to find his meagre beliefs in God's absolute power confirmed by the icy majesty of mountain and plain, he finds instead God's mercy and it melts his heart. In a Christ-like way, he brings life to others through his death, believing that, through death, he will find life. There is sufficient evidence to give plausibility to the view that Buchan is describing in Leithen his own pilgrimage. If so, it means that Buchan found his way back to the fundamental experience of the Christian life, conversion, so strongly emphasised in his orthodox Presbyterianism home and Church. However, Buchan reaches this conclusion in a Christian Platonist way, through the natural world, rather than through the more orthodox pathway of Scripture.

General Cariappa encounters 'White Australia' : Australia, India and the Commonwealth in the 1950s

There have been a number of studies of the White Australia policy and some examination of white Australia's relationship to the new, multiracial Commonwealth that emerged after the Second World War. Drawing extensively on Indian sources, this article examines how Australia was viewed by India's high commissioner to Australia and New Zealand, General K. M. Cariappa. In the period from September 1953 to April 1956 he sparked considerable controversy by suggesting that the White Australia policy ran the risk of alienating Asian opinion and undermining the Commonwealth ideal in India and Pakistan. Cariappa maintained a high public profile throughout his stay in Australia and was widely regarded as one of the most prominent diplomats posted to Canberra in the 1950s.

Training general practitioners in the assessment of childhood mental health problems

Epidemiological studies have found that most children with mental health problems are not receiving appropriate help. The aim of this study was to assess an approach to train general practitioners (GPs) to detect mental health problems early, engage the families, and assist them in the access of service. Five GPs were given three hours of training on a brief assessment method. Each then interviewed parents whose children they suspected might have a mental health problem. An experienced research clinician then repeated the assessment. This information was fed back to the GP who then assisted the family in obtaining appropriate help. Twenty-nine parents were interviewed in six months. The research clinician and the GPs were in agreement for 90% of the cases for the recognition of mental health problems. GPs’ opinions on the brief assessment method were: easy to use (100%), helpful in obtaining information (100%) and helpful in engaging the parent (100%). The parents were followed up by telephone 3-4 months after the interview. Eighty-eight percent reported that the process was helpful, 67% had received help from services and 67% had improved. We conclude that with brief training, the GPs in this study were able to improve their capacity to provide early intervention for childhood mental health problems.

Is there a need for cyberethics in the middle school curriculum

This research in progress is a qualitative and quantitative case study that is exploring the need for the integration of cyberethics into the curriculum for the middle school years 6 through 8. The broader research question in the study investigates: ‘Is there a problem with how school students in the middle years use the Internet in and out of school?’ The study has been exploring the level of understanding the group of students have of ethical behaviour on the Internet. This research helps identify areas where an understanding of cyberethics will increase students’ current and future understanding in the use of the Internet and their interaction with other aspects of the Internet and its environment. If a student encounters unsafe behaviour on the Internet, the student will be able to behave and act appropriately. The research is also investigating teachers and parents perceptions of the evidence of problems associated with their students/children’s access to the Internet.

This area was chosen for research because of the significant impact computers have had in education in the last decade. Since the advent of personal computers and networking the Education Departments in many developed nations have taken the opportunity to promote the technology’s educational benefits. There have been several studies on the educational value of computers in schools and the research thus far describes some of the ethical changes that have emerged as a result of the technology as well as the benefits and shortcomings of the use of this technology within the Australian environment as compared to its usage in other Western nations, namely the U.S. and U.K.

Identifying the problems in the use of the Internet by middle school students is a part of this investigation and it will make recommendations with regard to the integration of cyberethics into the middle school curriculum. This approach will help prompt students, teachers and parents to re-examine their decision framework with regard to Internet usage and hence move them to reflect and consider the use of the technology ethically. Further the research is examining students’, parents’ and teachers’ need for the introduction of cyberethics into the curriculum. The case study is drawing data from individual surveys of parents, teachers and students. The questionnaires consist of relevant scenarios so that it may identify the general understanding and use of the Internet by students, teachers and parents.

During the study, any modification to the curriculum for the integration of cyberethics is to be identified and these findings should be of interest to the wider educational community in Australia and New Zealand. The questions raised in this research may affect teacher education and help demonstrate the importance of the parents’ role in their children’s Internet usage. The research will cover current issues of cyberethics and its effects on middle school students.

Place of latin in the church

On the evening of Wednesday 13th September 2006, Solemn Vespers began in the historic 13th century chapel of Merton College Oxford, in much the same way as it would have done at the very first sung Vespers in this beautiful space, designed for the classical Roman liturgy already very well established in its language and forms when this chapel was first built 400 years before the English Reformation. For the next four days, the Roman liturgy, through Lauds, Solemn High Mass, Vespers and Compline, were celebrated in a place that – apart from one Novus Ordo Mass in English – had not seen the glories of this Liturgy celebrated in Latin since the mid 1500s. For those of us present at the 11th International Colloquium of the International Centre for Liturgical Studies (CIEL) dedicated to “The Genius of the Roman Liturgy: Historical Diversity and Spiritual Reach”, this was not just an incredibly moving experience, though it was certainly this, but an affirmation of the timelessness and spiritual heritage of the Latin liturgy.

Highlights from the tennis Australia heritage collections : mini-exhibition in the player cafe, Rod Laver Arena

Summary : This 'mini-exhibition' arose as an opportunity to showcase recent acquisitions as well as established holdings of significant items of tennis related heritage within the Tennis Australia Heritage Collections. In general, the Collections have two main strengths, and the mini-exhibition was designed to communicate these. The first strength is the ability to show the evolution of tennis technology and practices over time, from the beginnings of modern tennis in the 1860s, to today. This evolution is a result of tennis being influenced by changes in the wider world, such as the Industrial Revolution. The second strength of the Collections is in showing the impact and influence of tennis on society. Many items in the Collections are evidence of the immense and enduring popularity of the sport across the world. The Collections contain many beautiful, rare and fascinating items of decorative arts, fashion, literature and social history which feature tennis as a motif. These items show the reverse influence - the deep impression tennis has made outside of the sport itself.  This mini-exhibition focuses on these two themes. Some displays focus on the first theme. They demonstrate the evolution of tennis racquets, tennis balls, instructional publications and other tennis related equipment over the past century and a half. Other displays focus on the second theme. There are cases which examine tennis' influence upon global popular culture, in board games, fashion and decorative arts from around the world.  The mini-exhibition includes items from the U.s, U.K., Germany, France, Austria, Japan and Australia, demonstrating the global phenomenon that tennis quickly became, and showcasing the international scope of the Collections.  Each case contains text panels listing the objects and their specifications, and panels providing contextual information about the display. The miniexhibition is expected to be on display until November 2009. A case-bycase breakdown of objects, with images and a layout map follows.

Multiple regime shifts in concurring and dissenting opinions on the U.S. Supreme Court

In a previous issue of this journal, Smyth and Narayan (2004) examine structural change in the level of consensus on the High Court of Australia. In this article we adopt a similar strategy to that employed in Smyth and Narayan (2004) to estimate both the number and location of structural breaks in concurring and dissenting opinions on the U.S. Supreme Court. Although it has commonly been believed that there has been one regime shift on the U.S. Supreme Court, corresponding to the breakdown in the consensual norm in the 1930s or 1940s, we find that there have been three breaks in consensus. We find that two of the three breaks in dissenting opinions correspond closely to the beginning of the terms of Taney and Stone as Chief Justice, with the third occurring in the middle of Chase's term. We find that two of the three breaks in concurring opinions correspond closely to the beginning of the terms of Taney and Hughes and that the third break in concurring opinions occurs in the middle of the Warren Court.

Is there global inclusion in publishing in the five leading advertising journals and does this relate to general publishing performance : a regional comparison

The question has been raised in academia whether there is global inclusion of authors in publishing. This has generally not been explored in the 30 years of research on advertising research activity and those works that do exist in advertising have generally only examined three North American focused journals. This paper expands the set of journals to five advertising focused journals and thus is a global examination of publishing in advertising. Within these five advertising journals there is an increased international involvement and thus it appears that a broader set of perspectives are being considered in the advertising literature. We also found that there is a positive correlation between publishing in the five leading advertising journals and four leading generalist journals, suggesting that institutions may be developing broader research cultures, rather than targeting works only in advertising.

HOMA insulin sensitivity index and the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease events in the general population : the Australian diabetes, obesity and lifestyle study (AusDiab) study

Aims/hypothesis We assessed whether the relationships between insulin sensitivity and all-cause mortality as well as fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are independent of elevated blood glucose, high blood pressure, dyslipidaemia and body composition in individuals without diagnosed diabetes.
Methods Between 1999 and 2000, baseline fasting insulin, glucose and lipids, 2 h plasma glucose, HbA1c, anthropometrics, blood pressure, medication use, smoking and history of CVD were collected from 8,533 adults aged >35 years from the population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Insulin sensitivity was estimated by HOMA of insulin sensitivity (HOMA-%S). Deaths and fatal or non-fatal CVD events were ascertained through linkage to the National Death Index and medical records adjudication.
Results After a median of 5.0 years there were 277 deaths and 225 CVD events. HOMA-%S was not associated with all-cause mortality. Compared with the most insulin-sensitive quintile, the combined fatal or non-fatal CVD HR (95% CI) for quintiles of decreasing HOMA-%S were 1.1 (0.6–1.9), 1.4 (0.9–2.3), 1.6 (1.0–2.5) and 2.0 (1.3–3.1), adjusting for age and sex. Smoking, CVD history, hypertension, lipid-lowering medication, total cholesterol and waist-to-hip ratio moderately attenuated this relationship. However, the association was rendered non-significant by adding HDL. Fasting plasma glucose, but not HOMA-%S significantly improved the prediction of CVD, beyond that seen with other risk factors.
Conclusions/interpretation In this cohort, HOMA-%S showed no association with all-cause mortality and only a modest association with CVD events, largely explained by its association with HDL. Fasting plasma glucose was a better predictor of CVD than HOMA-%S.

Risk factors for female sexual dysfunction in the general population : exploring factors associated with low sexual function and sexual distress

Introduction. No previous population-based studies have used validated instruments to measure female sexual dysfunction (FSD) in Australian women across a broad age range.
Aim. To estimate prevalence and explore factors associated with the  components of FSD.
Main Outcome Measures. Sexual Function Questionnaire measured low sexual function. Female Sexual Distress Scale measured sexual distress.
Methods. Multivariate analysis of postal survey data from a random sample of 356 women aged 20–70 years.
Results. Low desire was more likely to occur in women in relationships for 20–29 years (odds ratio 3.7, 95% confidence intervals 1.1–12.8) and less likely in women reporting greater satisfaction with their partner as a lover (0.3, 0.1–0.9) or who placed greater importance on sex (0.1, 0.03–0.3). Low genital arousal was more likely among women who were perimenopausal (4.4, 1.2–15.7), postmenopausal (5.3, 1.6–17.7), or depressed (2.5, 1.1–5.3), and was less likely in women taking hormone therapy (0.2, 0.04–0.7), more educated (0.5, 0.3–0.96), in their 30s (0.2, 0.1–0.7) or 40s (0.2, 0.1–0.7), or placed greater importance on sex (0.2, 0.05–0.5). Low orgasmic function was less likely in women who were in their 30s (0.3, 0.1–0.8) or who placed greater importance on sex (0.3, 0.1–0.7). Sexual distress was positively associated with depression (3.1, 1.2–7.8) and was inversely associated with better communication of sexual needs (0.2, 0.05–0.5). Results were adjusted for other covariates including age, psychological, socioeconomic, physiological, and relationship factors.
Conclusions. Relationship factors were more important to low desire than age or menopause, whereas physiological and psychological factors were more important to low genital arousal and low orgasmic function than relationship factors. Sexual distress was associated with both psychological and relationship factors.

Importance of the contribution of Australians to the penetration of China by the China Inland Mission in the period 1888-1953, with particular reference to the work of Australian women missionaries

Australians, in the main, are unaware of the role which Australia played in the evangelization of China in the late nineteenth and the first half of the twentieth century. Most would never have heard of the China Inland Mission (CIM), the largest of the Protestant bodies which penetrated the Middle Kingdom, and few would know of the contribution that its Australian contingent, which consistently comprised about a tenth of the CIM's numbers, made towards the Christianization of that vast country. This thesis aims to raise the level of awareness in this area. Academic researchers have not totally neglected to examine the proselytization of China, and historians of the stature of Latourette have not let it escape their attention. However, most of the studies which have not merely fleetingly focused on the subject while viewing a larger canvas, have been North American, singling out the efforts of United States and Canadian bodies in introducing Christianity to the Chinese. Here, authors like Amerding, Bacon, Creighton, Gates, Hawkes, Ho, Ko, Mensendiek, Michell and Quale have left their mark. In the case of the present thesis, the outlook from which events played out in China are viewed is firmly based in Australia rather than North America. Earlier Australian research has been scarce, and is dominated by Loane and Dixon. Loane, evidently primarily working from Australasian Council minutes, mainly concentrates on the efforts of the CIM's Home Council, examining its endeavours decade by decade against a backdrop of contemporaneous events in China, and briefly referring to aspects of the lives of a cross-section of Australasian missionaries, without providing much idea about what they actually did in the field or what they achieved there. Because of its preoccupation with the Home Council, which never admitted women into its ranks, Loane's treatise is systemically biased towards men, though the more prominent of the women, like Mary Reed and Susie Garland, are given due recognition. The current thesis looks in detail at what Australians did in the field, the level of success they achieved, and at the particular contribution of Australian women towards the evangelization of China. Dixon took upon herself the formidable task of examining the endeavours of all missions in China which contained Australian missionaries. Because of the magnitude of her task, she could not focus to any great extent on particular missions, nor pursue in any detail the work of individual Australian missionaries. Like Loane, she was unable to explore what they actually did in the field or what they achieved there. Neither could she delve to any depth into the work of Australian women missionaries, though on the basis of the information she had accumulated, she drew the conclusion that Australian women had largely only brought about some unintended feminist consequences amongst Chinese women. This sweeping generalization failed to take into account the other very real social changes for Chinese women the Australian female missionaries quite purposely helped to bring about, and this thesis makes good that omission. This thesis studies aspects of the Australian missionary endeavour which both Loane and Dixon have neglected, thereby breaking new ground, and sets out to correct erroneous impressions which Dixon's dissertation has left on the historical record. One of these impressions concerned the longevity of the effect of the Australian effort in China. She had the View, writing in 1978, that the Chinese Church was moribund (a view shared by Varg and Lacy) , and that therefore the effects attributable to the endeavours of any nationality had proved fruitless, whereas the author is able to show, using modern-day sources, that the church has burgeoned in recent years thanks to earlier missionary endeavours and later neo-evangelistic efforts like Gospel radio, and now has a complement of perhaps 50 million adherents, making it second only to the United States in the size of its Protestant evangelical population. Another impression she left was that the Australian input into the evangelization of China can be largely dismissed because no totally Australian organization emerged, leaving the direction of Australia's effort in other hands. Contrary to that impression, the author shows that the Australian impact in China was significant and that Australians enjoyed more power than Dixon ever imagined. The author also shows that Australians were accepted as the equal of other nationalities in the CIM once they had acquired the necessary field expertise, a factor which doubtless also applied in respect of other missions with Australian components in China. Marchant has suggested that it is a fiction perpetuated by mission periodicals that Christianity spread and progressed in a determined manner in China. This thesis establishes that within the CIM's bailiwick, though there was some patchiness, Christianity progressed steadily and inexorably. One mission alone, the CIM, is concentrated upon, firstly in order to render the data manageable, secondly because it was the largest mission in China and had a sizeable Australian (including female) contingent, and thirdly because it exemplified many of the problems which would have been faced by missions in that country and their Australian components. The methodology employed is multifaceted. The written testimony of the missionaries themselves, contained in CIM periodicals, Field Bulletins, Monthly Notes, Annual Reports, autobiographies, personal files, diaries and letters is used to illustrate various aspects of the CIM's work in which Australians were engaged. This approach is augmented by other sources such as China and Australasian Home Council Minutes, missionary conference reports, Candidates' Books, biographies, and other selected material from archival holdings in Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom, America and Canada. Statistics, especially ratio analyses and growth rate comparisons are used to demonstrate the relative success of different missions, missionaries and genders. Also employed are reminiscences of missionaries and descendants obtained by personal interview, and these are aggregated to provide some general conclusions. Data from these various sources have been synthesized to serve the central objective of demonstrating the importance of the contribution of Australians to the penetration of China by the CIM in the period 1888-1953 with particular reference to the work of Australian women missionaries.