Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20th century in England and Wales : possible plateaus in the rate of decline

Background
Coronary heart disease (CHD) rates in England and Wales between 1950 and 2005 were high and reasonably steady until the mid 1970s, when they began to fall. Recent work suggests that the rate of change in some groups has begun to decrease and may be starting to plateau or even reverse.

Methods
Data for all deaths between 1931 and 2005 in England and Wales were grouped by year, sex, age at death and contemporaneous ICD code for CHD as cause of death. CHD mortality rates by calendar year and birth cohort were produced for both sexes and rates of change were examined.

Results
The pattern of increased burden of CHD mortality within older age groups has only recently emerged in men, whereas it has been established in women for far longer. CHD mortality rates among younger people showed little variation by birth cohort. For younger women (49 and under), the rate of change in CHD mortality has reversed in the last 20 years, indicating a future plateau and possible reversal of previous improvement in CHD mortality rates. Among younger men the rate of change in CHD mortality has been consistent for the past 15 years indicating that rates in this group have continued to fall steadily.

Conclusion
Although CHD mortality rates continue to drop in older age groups the actual burden of coronary heart disease is increasing due to the ageing of the population. The rate of improvement in CHD mortality appears to be beginning to decline and may even be reversing among younger women.

(Im)plausibilities: a rhizo-textual analysis of policy texts and teachers' work

In this paper I argue for the use of Deleuzian theories in educational contexts. In particular, I am interested in the use of the concept of rhizomes, and the analysis of texts as rhizomes, drawing on Deleuze and Guattari's work in A Thousand Plateaus (1987). I discuss the possibilities for using rhizomatics in educational contexts through an exploration of the construction of an 'apparatus of social critique' (Buchanan, 2000). I then describe a rhizomatic understanding of the relationships between teachers and policy texts, which can disrupt commonsense understandings of these relations. I provide examples from my own research (Honan, 2001) of a rhizo-textual analysis of policy texts. This rhizo-textual analysis involved an exploration of the construction of the subject position, teacher, within one policy text, as well as a mapping of two teachers' readings of this text. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for using Deleuzian theory in educational contexts, implications for both policy developers and educational researchers.

Effects of dietary astaxanthin concentration and feeding period on the skin pigmentation of Australian snapper Pagrus auratus (Bloch & Schneider, 1801)

A single-factor experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of dietary astaxanthin concentration on the skin colour of snapper. Snapper (mean weight=129 g) were held in white cages and fed one of seven dietary levels of unesterified astaxanthin (0, 13, 26, 39, 52, 65 or 78 mg astaxanthin kg⁻¹) for 63 days. Treatments comprised four replicate cages, each containing five fish. The skin colour of all fish was quantified using the CIE L^*, a^*, b^* colour scale after 21, 42 and 63 days. In addition, total carotenoid concentrations of the skin of two fish cage−1 were determined after 63 days. Supplementing diets with astaxanthin strongly affected redness (a^*) and yellowness (b^*) values of the skin at all sampling times. After 21 days, the a^* values increased linearly as the dietary astaxanthin concentration was increased before a plateau was attained between 39 and 78 mg kg⁻¹. The b^* values similarly increased above basal levels in all astaxanthin diets. By 42 days, a^* and b^* values increased in magnitude while a plateau remained between 39 and 78 mg kg⁻¹. After 63 days, there were no further increases in measured colour values, suggesting that maximum pigmentation was imparted in the skin of snapper fed diets >39 mg kg⁻¹ after 42 days. Similarly, there were no differences in total carotenoid concentrations of the skin of snapper fed diets >39 mg kg⁻¹ after 63 days. The plateaus that occurred in a^* and b^* values, while still increasing in magnitude between 21 and 42 days, indicate that the rate of astaxanthin deposition in snapper is limited and astaxanthin in diets containing >39 mg astaxanthin kg⁻¹ is not efficiently utilized. Astaxanthin retention after 63 days was greatest from the 13 mg kg⁻¹ diet; however, skin pigmentation was not adequate. An astaxanthin concentration of 39 mg kg⁻¹ provided the second greatest retention in the skin while obtaining maximum pigmentation. To efficiently maximize skin pigmentation, snapper growers should commence feeding diets containing a minimum of 39 mg unesterified astaxanthin kg⁻¹ at least 42 days before sale.

Learning from large data : bias, variance, sampling, and learning curves

One of the fundamental machine learning tasks is that of predictive classification. Given that organisations collect an ever increasing amount of data, predictive classification methods must be able to effectively and efficiently handle large amounts of data. However, it is understood that present requirements push existing algorithms to, and sometimes beyond, their limits since many classification prediction algorithms were designed when currently common data set sizes were beyond imagination. This has led to a significant amount of research into ways of making classification learning algorithms more effective and efficient. Although substantial progress has been made, a number of key questions have not been answered. This dissertation investigates two of these key questions. The first is whether different types of algorithms to those currently employed are required when using large data sets. This is answered by analysis of the way in which the bias plus variance decomposition of predictive classification error changes as training set size is increased. Experiments find that larger training sets require different types of algorithms to those currently used. Some insight into the characteristics of suitable algorithms is provided, and this may provide some direction for the development of future classification prediction algorithms which are specifically designed for use with large data sets. The second question investigated is that of the role of sampling in machine learning with large data sets. Sampling has long been used as a means of avoiding the need to scale up algorithms to suit the size of the data set by scaling down the size of the data sets to suit the algorithm. However, the costs of performing sampling have not been widely explored. Two popular sampling methods are compared with learning from all available data in terms of predictive accuracy, model complexity, and execution time. The comparison shows that sub-sampling generally products models with accuracy close to, and sometimes greater than, that obtainable from learning with all available data. This result suggests that it may be possible to develop algorithms that take advantage of the sub-sampling methodology to reduce the time required to infer a model while sacrificing little if any accuracy. Methods of improving effective and efficient learning via sampling are also investigated, and now sampling methodologies proposed. These methodologies include using a varying-proportion of instances to determine the next inference step and using a statistical calculation at each inference step to determine sufficient sample size. Experiments show that using a statistical calculation of sample size can not only substantially reduce execution time but can do so with only a small loss, and occasional gain, in accuracy. One of the common uses of sampling is in the construction of learning curves. Learning curves are often used to attempt to determine the optimal training size which will maximally reduce execution time while nut being detrimental to accuracy. An analysis of the performance of methods for detection of convergence of learning curves is performed, with the focus of the analysis on methods that calculate the gradient, of the tangent to the curve. Given that such methods can be susceptible to local accuracy plateaus, an investigation into the frequency of local plateaus is also performed. It is shown that local accuracy plateaus are a common occurrence, and that ensuring a small loss of accuracy often results in greater computational cost than learning from all available data. These results cast doubt over the applicability of gradient of tangent methods for detecting convergence, and of the viability of learning curves for reducing execution time in general.

Narrativization of actuality : convergence of form and genre in film and television

The thesis concerns the treatment of actuality in film and television, particularly the narrativization of actuality images, and the context of their placement within audio/visual texts. Several instances of the convergence of media form and genre are analyzed, and the conventions of classificatory systems and boundaries that pertain to film and television representations are reconsidered in light of changes in the conventions of genre. The distinction between, and convergence of fictional and non-fictional conventions of narrative are therefore central to the thesis, as are the related issues of viewer response, the nature of subjectivity in the viewer, the connectivity of text and culture, and the relations of actuality to the text. The thesis traces the narrativization of actuality through textual, formal and genre boundaries, adopting a ‘line of flight or deterritorialization’ that enables the thesis to ‘change in nature and connect with other multiplicities.’This line of flight passes through the conventional separation of genre groupings and texts, and, similarly, has been applied in the thesis as a rationale for the diminution of theoretical boundaries. A multiperpectival approach is applied to the permeability of, or transcendent relations of the analysis to the boundaries between genres, between texts and culture, and between actuality and virtual representation. In the thesis there is also a theoretical deterritorialization that consents to a pluralism of theory, which is an approach demonstrated by Deleuze and Guattari in A Thousand Plateaus. The model of multi-perspectivalism adopted in the thesis engages in establishing connections and similarities between theories, rather than emphasizing contradictory and exclusive practices. The Foucauldian notion of the rules of formation in discourse, Nichols’ theories of documentary representation of reality, Bordwell’s schematic interpretation, and several other positions are critiqued, as the line of flight embarked upon in the thesis intersects with, and passes through both textual and theoretical boundaries. The thesis consists of two parts: firstly, a location of theoretical perspective, in which the issues of theory pertaining to actuality and narrative are explicated, and the methodological approach of the thesis is defined. The second part commences with an analysis of the most familiar instances of actuality in film and television, with particular attention to documentary forms. It then engages in the analysis of films that represent actuality but which, in the process of narrativization, display a convergence of genre conventions. The films selected for analysis include Steven Speilberg's Schindler's List, (1993) Oliver Stone's JFK, (1991) and Robert Zemeckis' Forrest Gump, (1994) and Contact, (1996). Hence the thesis is concerned with the application of a pluralist theoretical approach, with, however, an emphasis on the Deleuzo-Guattarian notions of rhizome and assemblage. Within this theoretical frame, the connections between actuality and the audio/visual text are explicated, and the formation of text as ‘a rhizome with the world’, is analyzed across a range of examples.

Ecological correlates of the threat of extinction in neotropical bird species

Predicting the threat of extinction aids efficient distribution of conservation resources. This paper utilises a comparative macroecological approach to investigate the threat of extinction in Neotropical birds. Data on ecological variables for 1708 species are analysed using stepwise regression to produce minimum adequate models, first using raw species values and then using independent contrasts (to control for phylogenetic effects). The models differ, suggesting phylogeny has significant effects. The raw species analysis reveals that number of zoogeographical regions occupied, elevational range and utilisation of specialised microhabitats were negatively associated with threat, while minimum elevation and body mass were positively associated, whereas the independent contrasts analysis only identifies zoogeographical regions as important. Confining the analysis to the 582 species restricted to a single zoogeographical region reveals elevational range and number of habitats occupied to be negatively correlated with threat whether the analysis is based on the raw data or on independent contrasts. Analysis of four contrasting zoogeographical regions highlights regional variation in the models. In two Andean regions the threat of extinction declines as the elevation range across which the species occurs increases. In the presence of substantial human populations on high Andean plateaus, a species with a greater elevational range may be more likely to persist at some (relatively) unsettled altitudes. In Central South America, the strongest predictor of threat is minimum elevation of occurrence: species with a lower minimum are less threatened. The minimum elevation result suggests that lowland species experiencing an ecological limit to their minimum elevation (min. elevation >0 m) may be more at risk than those not experiencing such a limit (min. elevation = 0 m). Finally, in southern Amazonia, where there is little altitudinal variation, the only weak predictors of threat are body size, larger species being more threatened, and number of habitats, species occupying more habitats being less threatened. These contrasting results emphasise the importance of undertaking extinction risk analyses at an appropriate geographical scale. Since the models explained only a low percentage of total variance in the data, the effects of human-mediated habitat disturbance across a wide range of habitats may be important.

Sexual abuse in 'Disgrace' and 'Cereus Blooms at Night': the case for hope

Abuse is rife in Disgrace by J.M. Coetzee and Cereus Blooms at Night by Shani Mootoo. Sexual violence is in both narratives, part of their richly textured social, emotional and political worlds. Fiction involving various traumas seems bleak, almost hopeless, perhaps weighted by sadness. Yet both these novels, even through depictions of rupturing, disruptive rape, trigger a recognition of possibility and potential among characters and perhaps readers. It is in this open ended potential for betterment of some kind that hope lies. What is the nature of hope and to what extent is it present in these novels? In this paper, I explore the emotion of hope in relation to the notion of becoming as elaborated on by Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari particularly in A Thousand Plateaus. They expound on Remy Chauvin‟s term “aparallel evolution” in relation to becoming (Deleuze and Guattari, 11). Deleuze also states that becoming is not a “phenomena of imitation or assimilation”. Rather, it is an encounter, “a double capture” (Deleuze and Parnet 2) between heterogeneous elements. There is no end or destination in becoming; it is constant change. I examine the transformative potential of becoming to elicit signs of hope in these novels. David Lurie, the self-absorbed womaniser and arguably rapist, becomes-dog by the end of Disgrace. How does this contribute to any sense of redemption and consequently hope? And how does hope emanate from the beaten, broken, brutally raped Mala Ramchandin in Cereus Blooms at Night? At heart, this paper is an acknowledgment of the unique relation literature has with life and the enriching insight that it may provide into the expression of hope.

Service engineering based on service oriented architecture methodology

Service Engineering (SE) and Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) originally reside on different plateaus of discipline. SE is defined as a set of activity introducing a new business service, while SOA is a technical approach to redefine an enterprise business processes as a set of IT enabled services. This paper proposes a SOA embedded SE framework as a comprehensive approach in re-defining business service and its IT implementation. After an introduction, a review of existing SE frameworks and SOA methodologies is presented in the paper. Afterward, a complete SE framework is proposed with several results on early case studies. A survey results are then presented to prove the usability and benefit of the proposed framework. The framework is designed and proposed to help practitioners and researchers to conduct service engineering by employing principles and methodology offered by SOA approach.

Comparative phylogeography of alpine invertebrates indicates deep lineage diversification and historical refugia in the Australian Alps

Aim: Comparative phylogeographic analyses of alpine biota from the Northern Hemisphere have linked patterns of genetic diversification to glacial expansion and contraction events in the Pliocene and Pleistocene. Furthermore, the extent of diversification across species groups appears to be associated with vagility. In this study we test whether these patterns apply to a geologically stable system from eastern Australia with comparatively shallow elevational gradients and minimal influence from historical glacial activity. Location: The Australian Alps, Victoria, eastern Australia. Methods: We considered phylogeographic patterns across five alpine invertebrate species based on mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data. Bayesian inference methods were used to estimate species phylogenies and divergence times among lineages. GIS tools were used to map interpopulation genetic divergence and intrapopulation genetic diversity estimates and to visualize spatial patterns across species, providing insights into patterns of endemism and demographic history. Results: Phylogeographic patterns and the timing of lineage diversification were consistent across taxonomic groups. Mountain summits harbour highly differentiated haplogroups, including summits connected by high-elevational plateaus, pointing to diversifications being maintained since the early to mid-Pleistocene. These findings are consistent with previous studies of alpine mammals and reptiles, demonstrating a high degree of endemism in this region, regardless of species vagility. Main conclusions: The fine spatial scales at which deep genetic differentiation among alpine communities was observed in this study are unprecedented. This suggests that glacial periods have had less of an impact on species distributions and genetic diversity than they have in alpine systems in the Northern Hemisphere. Historical gene flow among sky-island populations has been limited despite connecting snowlines during glacial periods, suggesting that factors other than snow cover have influenced patterns of gene flow in this region. These findings emphasize the unique phylogeographic history affecting Victorian alpine biodiversity, and the importance of conserving biodiversity from multiple mountain summits in this region of high endemism.