Attending to risk in sequential sampling plans

Researchers typically tackle questions by constructing powerful, highlyreplicated sampling protocols or experimental designs. Such approaches often demand large samples sizes and are usually only conducted on a once-off basis. In contrast, many industries need to continually monitor phenomena such as equipment reliability, water quality, or the abundance of a pest. In such instances, costs and time inherent in sampling preclude the use of highlyintensive methods. Ideally, one wants to collect the absolute minimum number of samples needed to make an appropriate decision. Sequential sampling, wherein the sample size is a function of the results of the sampling process itself, offers a practicable solution. But smaller sample sizes equate to less knowledge about the population, and thus an increased risk of making an incorrect management decision. There are various statistical techniques to account for and measure risk in sequential sampling plans. We illustrate these methods and assess them using examples relating to the management of arthropod pests in commercial crops, but they can be applied to any situation where sequential sampling is used.

Implementing integrated coastal zone management through the use of coastal action plans: lessons from Victoria

There are currently no performance indicators in place for assessing the successful implementation of Victoria,'s strategic plans (Coastal Action Plans, CAPs) in achieving Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) at a regional level. This article explores the findings of a study which assessed the success of the approach adopted in Victoria under the State Coastal Management Act 1995 to implement ICZM through CAPs. The study developed a set of criteria for measuring this success. We conclude with a discussion of how appropriate such an approach may be in other jurisdictions.

Evaluation of fixed sample-size plans for Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) on broccoli crops in Australia

Fixed sample-size plans for monitoring Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) on broccoli and other Brassica vegetable crops are popular in Australia for their simplicity and ease of application. But the sample sizes used are often small, ≈10–25 plants per crop, and it may be that they fail to provide sufficient information upon which to base pest control decisions. We tested the performance of seven fixed sample-size plans (10, 15, 20, 30, 35, 40, and 45 plants) by resampling a large data set on P. xylostella in commercial broccoli crops. For each sample size, enumerative and presence-absence plans were assessed. The precision of the plans was assessed in terms of the ratio of the standard error to the mean; and at least 45 and 35 samples were necessary for the enumerative and presence-absence plans, respectively, to attain the generally accepted benchmark of ≤0.3. Sample sizes of 10–20 were highly imprecise. We also assessed the consequences of classifications based on action thresholds (ATs) of 0.2 and 0.8 larvae per plant for the enumerative case, and 0.15 and 0.45 proportion of plants of infested for the presence-absence case. Operating characteristic curves and investigations of the frequency of correct decisions suggest improvements in the performance of plans with increased sample size. In both the enumerative and presence-absence cases, the proportion of incorrect decisions was much higher for the lower of the two ATs assessed, and type II errors (i.e., failure to suggest pest control upon the AT is exceeded) generally accounted for the majority of this error. Type II errors are the most significant from a producer’s standpoint. Further consideration is necessary to determine what is an acceptable type II error rate.

A systematic approach to writing and rating entrepreneurial business plans

This investigation is part of a series of studies in the field of venture capital deal screening. At issue is the use of theory-based standards for the systematic creation and assessment of entrepreneurial business plans. A synthesis of research-based principles contained in the literature culminated in the formal articulation and operationalization of 10 principles in the form of a questionnaire, titled the Entrepreneurial Business Plan Assessment Regime (EBRAR). The EBRAR can serve as a guide for both writing and rating entrepreneurial business plans. Discussion focuses on the utility of assessment, as well as future research directions.

Is the quality of entrepreneurial business plans related to the outcome of a new venture?

The evaluation of new ventures often involves two key aspects of entrepreneurial business plans: how best to write them and how best to rate (evaluate) them. Ultimately the performance of the venture should be the definitive criterion of quality. Surprisingly, the writing, rating and performance effects of entrepreneurial business plans (EBPs) comprise three related but under researched areas. This paper empirically tested principles for writing and rating entrepreneurial business plans to draw inferences on how to improve the private equity investment evaluation process. A simplified perspective of General Systems Theory guided our empirical investigation of the input and outcome of the VC investment decision. Our empirical investigation reveals that entrepreneurial business plans that comport with the writing principles from the literature improve a new venture’s likelihood of success.

The Pacific OPIC Project (Obesity Prevention In Communities) : action plans and interventions

Background: The Pacific OPIC Project (Obesity Prevention In Communities) includes whole-of-community intervention programs in four countries (Fiji, Tonga, New Zealand, Australia) aimed at reducing the prevalence of overweight and  obesity in youth.

Development of Action Plans: At each intervention site, preliminary interviews  were conducted with youth to identify the potential socio-cultural barriers and  facilitators to healthy eating and regular physical activity in order to attain and sustain a healthy body size. This and other information was presented at a 2-day workshop with community stakeholders, including youth. The participants then prioritised the components for a draft action plan which was later consolidated through further community consultation.

Action Plan objectives: Each action plan had two overall aims: to build  community capacity and to promote healthy weight. The first three objectives in each action plan were on capacity building, social marketing messages, and evaluation. Next were a set of four to five behavioural objectives with associated strategies involving programs, events, social marketing and environmental  change. Lastly, each site had one or two innovative or developmental objectives.

Progress: Interventions began in all sites from 2005, with the action plans guiding implementation priorities. The initial behavioural objective for targeting in Fiji was eating regular breakfast and meals throughout the day, for Tonga it was physical activity, and for Australia and New Zealand it was increasing water consumption and decreasing consumption of sweet drinks.

Conclusions: The action plans have provided the basis for community engagement in the project, the guide to the implementation of activities and the template for the evaluation plan.

Creating community action plans for obesity prevention using the ANGELO (Analysis Grid for Elements Linked to Obesity) framework

Community-based interventions are an important component of obesity prevention efforts. The literature provides little guidance on priority-setting for obesity prevention in communities, especially for socially and culturally diverse populations. This paper reports on the process of developing prioritized, community-participatory action plans for obesity prevention projects in children and adolescents using the ANGELO (Analysis Grid for Elements Linked to Obesity) Framework. We combined stakeholder engagement processes, the ANGELO Framework (scans for environmental barriers, targeted behaviours, gaps in skills and knowledge) and workshops with key stakeholders to create action plans for six diverse obesity prevention projects in Australia (n = 3), New Zealand, Fiji and Tonga from 2002 to 2005. Some sites included sociocultural contextual analyses in the environmental scans. Target groups were under-5-year-olds (Australia), 4–12-year-olds (Australia) and 13–18-year-olds (all four countries). Over 120 potential behavioural, knowledge, skill and environmental elements were identified for prioritization leading into each 2-day workshop. Many elements were common across the diverse cultural communities; however, several unique sociocultural elements emerged in some cultural groups which informed their action plans. Youth were actively engaged in adolescent projects, allowing their needs to be incorporated into the action plans initiating the process of ownership. A common structure for the action plan promoted efficiencies in the process while allowing for community creativity and innovation. The ANGELO is a flexible and efficient way of achieving an agreed plan for obesity prevention with diverse communities. It is responsive to community needs, combines local and international knowledge and creates stakeholder ownership of the action plan.

Leading lights : the promotion of garden suburb plans and planners in interwar Australia

This thesis explores interwar town planning in Australia, focusing on the period of large-scale urban expansion in the 1920’s. It problematises aspects of Australia’s urban planning history, particularly the 1920s ‘garden suburb. It also investigates the question of the use of international planning ideas in Australia, and the assertion or creation of authority by the Australian planning movement. The thesis additionally investigates the use of authoritative planning rhetoric for commercial or creative advantage. The thesis argues that the majority of innovative planning projects in the interwar years took place in the formation and foundation of the garden suburb. It shows that the garden suburb – assumed in much planning history to be an inferior form of Ebenezer Howard’s ‘garden city’ ideal – has, in fact, a number of precedents in 19th century Australian suburbia, some of which were retained in 20th century commercial estate design. Much of the Australian town planner’s authority at this time required recognition and awareness of the interests and needs of the general public, as negotiated through land vendors. As Australians looked to the future, and to the US for guidance, they were invited to invest in speculative real estate development modelled on this vision. The thesis concentrates primarily on the lives, careers and work of the British-Australian architect-planner Sir John Sulman; the Chicagoan architect-planners Marion Mahony and Walter Burley Griffin; and the Australian surveyor-planner Saxil Tuxen. These individuals were among the most prominent planners in Australia in the interwar years. All designed Australian garden suburbs, and combined advocacy with practice in private and public spheres. The thesis examines images and personas, both generic and individual, of the planner and the vendor. It shows that the formulation of the garden suburb and design practices, and the incorporation of international elements into Australian planning, are important in the creation of planning practice and forms. It also outlines the way these continue to have significant impact, in diverse and important ways, on both the contemporary built environment and planning history itself.