Methodological shifts in ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse

The year 1968 saw a major shift from univariate to multivariate methodological approaches to ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse. This was facilitated by the introduction of a new statistical tool called Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA). However, it did not take long before other statistical tools were developed. The primary objective for developing these tools was to enable deriving models that would at least do as good a job asMDA, but rely on fewer assumptions. With the introduction of new statistical tools, researchers became pre-occupied with testing them in signalling collapse. lLTUong the ratio-based approaches were Logit analysis, Neural Network analysis, Probit analysis, ID3, Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, Rough Sets analysis, Decomposition analysis, Going Concern Advisor, Koundinya and Purl judgmental approach, Tabu Search and Mixed Logit analysis. Regardless of which methodological approach was chosen, most were compared to MDA. This paper reviews these various approaches. Emphasis is placed on how they fared against MDA in signalling corporate collapse.

Multiple regime shifts in concurring and dissenting opinions on the U.S. Supreme Court

In a previous issue of this journal, Smyth and Narayan (2004) examine structural change in the level of consensus on the High Court of Australia. In this article we adopt a similar strategy to that employed in Smyth and Narayan (2004) to estimate both the number and location of structural breaks in concurring and dissenting opinions on the U.S. Supreme Court. Although it has commonly been believed that there has been one regime shift on the U.S. Supreme Court, corresponding to the breakdown in the consensual norm in the 1930s or 1940s, we find that there have been three breaks in consensus. We find that two of the three breaks in dissenting opinions correspond closely to the beginning of the terms of Taney and Stone as Chief Justice, with the third occurring in the middle of Chase's term. We find that two of the three breaks in concurring opinions correspond closely to the beginning of the terms of Taney and Hughes and that the third break in concurring opinions occurs in the middle of the Warren Court.

Modelling the linkages between the Australian and G7 stock markets : common stochastic trends and regime shifts

This paper examines whether the Australian equity market is integrated with the equity markets of the G7 economies by applying both the Johansen (Statistical analysis of conintegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54, 1988) and Gregory and Hansen (Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126, 1996) approaches to cointegration. Some evidence of a pairwise long-run relationship between the Australian stock market and the stock markets of Canada, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom is found, but the Australian equity market is not pairwise cointegrated with the equity markets of France, Germany or the USA.

Impact of shifts in health policy on the role and practice of generalist community health nurses

Provides a critical analysis of trends in health policy which are impacting on the role and practice of generalist community nurses in Victoria. The thesis draws on critical social theory to research and analyse trends in health policy in relation to the Community Health Program.

Small shifts in diurnal rhythms are associated with an increase in suicide : the effect of daylight saving

Large disruptions of chronobiological rhythms are documented as destabilizing individuals with bipolar disorder; however, the impact of small phase altering events is unclear. Australian suicide data from 1971 to 2001 were assessed to determine the impact on the number of suicides of a 1-h time shift due to daylight saving. The results confirm that male suicide rates rise in the weeks following the commencement of daylight saving, compared to the weeks following the return to eastern standard time and for the rest of the year. After adjusting for the season, prior to 1986 suicide rates in the weeks following the end of daylight saving remained significantly increased compared to the rest of autumn. This study suggests that small changes in chronobiological rhythms are potentially destabilizing in vulnerable individuals.

Teaching and learning history in primary schools : pedagogical shifts, complexities and opportunities

From 2011 the teaching and learning of History will be expanded into all primary schools (Kindergarten – Year 6) throughout Australia under a National Curriculum, including the formal preschool/kindergarten year. History as one of four core subjects will replace current studies of society and environment curriculum taught in primary schools across. The curriculum implementation process will involve a cultural and pedagogical shift as primary teachers make adjustments to the discipline of History. This article begins with an outline of the current curriculum context. An analysis of the New South Wales Human Society and Its Environment and the Australian Curriculum: History Draft Consultation documents follows. The findings indicate that the History Draft Consultation lacks clear guidance for teachers and has a number of shortcomings compared to the NSW HSIE syllabus. There are opportunities, however, for primary teachers because of the broad similarities of content knowledge in both documents and the embedded historical concepts in the NSW syllabus document.

Establishment and development of a seabird colony : long-term trends in phenology, breeding success, recruitment, breeding density and demography

Few studies document long-term colony-level metrics from colony establishment to maturity (equilibrium) and few test predictions of general models of colony development. We describe long-term trends in a colony of Australasian Gannets (Morus serrator) which has been monitored from an early stage in its development. The colony at Pope’s Eye, within Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia was established in 1984 on an artificial structure and the first nest count (25 nests) was conducted in the same year. The colony was then studied for 15 of 19 years between 1988 and 2006–2007. During the study, 2,516 eggs were recorded, resulting in 1,694 chicks hatching (67 % of eggs), of which 1,310 (77 % of those hatched) fledged. At least 184 (14 %) of fledged offspring returned to Pope’s Eye as breeding adults. Since establishment, the number and density of nests increased (number of nests increased 8.8 % annually), with density increasing at varying rates in different areas of the colony. Early recruitment involved birds from a nearby colony, but within 5 years post establishment the first natal recruits were breeding at Pope’s Eye and thereafter natal recruitment was the main source of new breeding adults (totalling 81.4 % of all recruits). Age of recruitment varied throughout the study, though not systematically, and there was no difference between the sexes. The pattern of rapid initial growth is typical of patterns reported for other seabird colonies. However, as the colony (and birds within it) aged, there was no increase in breeding success and egg laying did not become earlier, as was expected from general models of colony development.

Re-positioning Australia's international education in global knowledge economies : implications of shifts in skilled migration policies for universities

In recent times, many key host nations have made it easier for foreign graduates to migrate after graduation. These students are often considered ideal migrants, possessing local qualifications along with a degree of acculturation, language skills and, in many cases, relevant local work experience. For the student, the opportunity to obtain international work experience adds to the appeal of the overseas study experience and enhances the graduate skills necessary to compete in the global labour market. This paper examines recent changes to migration policy in Australia affecting the post-study work entitlements of international students studying at Australian universities and explores the underlying rationale and consequences of the recent changes in policy direction. An examination of migration policies in the United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Canada indicates that recent changes to skilled migration policy in Australia, along with bleak economic conditions in a number of key host countries, has opened up opportunities for Australia to re-position itself favourably.

Travelling through a warming world: climate change and migratory species

Long-distance migrations are among the wonders of the natural world, but this multi-taxon review shows that the characteristics of species that undertake such movements appear to make them particularly vulnerable to detrimental impacts of climate change. Migrants are key components of biological systems in high latitude regions, where the speed and magnitude of climate change impacts are greatest. They also rely on highly productive seasonal habitats, including wetlands and ocean upwellings that, with climate change, may become less food-rich and predictable in space and time. While migrants are adapted to adjust their behaviour with annual changes in the weather, the decoupling of climatic variables between geographically separate breeding and non-breeding grounds is beginning to result in mistimed migration. Furthermore, human land-use and activity patterns will constrain the ability of many species to modify their migratory routes and may increase the stress induced by climate change. Adapting conservation strategies for migrants in the light of climate change will require substantial shifts in site designation policies, flexibility of management strategies and the integration of forward planning for both people and wildlife. While adaptation to changes may be feasible for some terrestrial systems, wildlife in the marine ecosystem may be more dependent on the degree of climate change mitigation that is achievable.

How well do predators adjust to climate-mediated shifts in prey distribution? A study on Australian water pythons

Climate change can move the spatial location of resources critical for population viability, and a species' resilience to such changes will depend upon its ability to flexibly shift its activities away from no-longer-suitable sites to exploit new opportunities. Intuition suggests that vagile predators should be able to track spatial shifts in prey availability, but our data on water pythons (Liasis fuscus) in tropical Australia suggest a less encouraging scenario. These pythons undergo regular long-range (to >10 km) seasonal migrations to follow flooding-induced migrations by their prey (native dusky rats, Rattus colletti). However, when an extreme flooding event virtually eliminated rats for a three-year period, the local pythons did not disperse despite the presence of abundant rats only 8 km away; instead, many pythons starved to death. This inflexibility suggests that some vagile species that track seasonally migrating prey may do so by responding to habitat attributes that have consistently predicted prey availability over evolutionary time, rather than reacting to proximate cues that signal the presence of prey per se. A species' vulnerability to climate change will be increased by an inability to shift its activities away from historical sites toward newly favorable areas.

Shifts in thinking and practice: reflecting on an applied learning programme

The implementation of the first iteration of a curriculum for an applied learning programme for police trainers received a hostile response from participants. It was perceived as irrelevant and supplanting, rather than augmenting, trainers’ fixed and untested training practices. This paper presents the reflections on my journey as a nonpolice person straddling an outsider-insider position while challenging that which is taken-for-granted and introducing an educative intent, as opposed to a doctrinal, technical intent, to police training. On a daily basis I simultaneously work within and against the prevailing D/discourses and dominant subcultures, while establishing and nurturing relationships with police trainers: being teacher, coach and ‘critical friend’. The response to the second and now third iterations of the learning programme has been increasingly positive, revealing shifts in trainers’ thinking and practice.