Exposure estimation, uncertainty and variability in occupational hygiene retrospective assessment

This thesis reports on a quantitative exposure assessment and on an analysis of the attributes of the data used in the estimations, in particular distinguishing between its uncertainty and variability. A retrospective assessment of exposure to benzene was carried out for a case control study of leukaemia in the Australian petroleum industry. The study used the mean of personal task-based measurements (Base Estimates) in a deterministic algorithm and applied factors to model back to places, times etc for which no exposure measurements were available. Mean daily exposures were estimated, on an individual subject basis, by summing the task-based exposures. These mean exposures were multiplied by the years spent on each job to provide exposure estimates in ppm-years. These were summed to provide a Cumulative Estimate for each subject. Validation was completed for the model and key inputs. Exposures were low, most jobs were below TWA of 5 ppm benzene. Exposures in terminals were generally higher than at refineries. Cumulative Estimates ranged from 0.005 to 50.9 ppm-years, with 84 percent less than 10 ppm-years. Exposure probability distributions were developed for tanker drivers using Monte Carlo simulation of the exposure estimation algorithm. The outcome was a lognormal distribution of exposure for each driver. These provide the basis for alternative risk assessment metrics e.g. the frequency of short but intense exposures which provided only a minimal contribution to the long-term average exposure but may increase risk of leukaemia. The effect of different inputs to the model were examined and their significance assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. The Base Estimates were the most important determinant of exposure in the model. The sources of variability in the measured data were examined, including the effect of having censored data and the between and within-worker variability. The sources of uncertainty in the exposure estimates were analysed and consequential improvements in exposure assessment identified. Monte Carlo sampling was also used to examine the uncertainties and variability associated with the tanker drivers' exposure assessment, to derive an estimate of the range and to put confidence intervals on the daily mean exposures. The identified uncertainty was less than the variability associated with the estimates. The traditional approach to exposure estimation typically derives only point estimates of mean exposure. The approach developed here allows a range of exposure estimates to be made and provides a more flexible and improved basis for risk assessment.

Recent global trends in the Chinese construction industry and its market

The rapidly increasing construction demand in China, particularly spurred by the coming 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and the 2010 Shanghai Expo, provides challenging opportunities for overseas construction enterprises. Therefore understanding the structure and dynamics of construction industry in China is crucial, particularly the potential changes of the market after the China's entry into the World Trade Organization. This paper analyses the development of construction economics and institutional regulations in the construction market, and provides a comprehensive image on the Chinese construction sector in the global environment.

Estimating mean exposures from censored data: exposure to benzene in the Australian petroleum industry

A retrospective assessment of exposure to benzene was carried out for a nested case control study of lympho-haematopoietic cancers, including leukaemia, in the Australian petroleum industry. Each job or task in the industry was assigned a Base Estimate (BE) of exposure derived from task-based personal exposure assessments carried out by the company occupational hygienists. The BEs corresponded to the estimated arithmetic mean exposure to benzene for each job or task and were used in a deterministic algorithm to estimate the exposure of subjects in the study. Nearly all of the data sets underlying the BEs were found to contain some values below the limit of detection (LOD) of the sampling and analytical methods and some were very heavily censored; up to 95% of the data were below the LOD in some data sets. It was necessary, therefore, to use a method of calculating the arithmetic mean exposures that took into account the censored data. Three different methods were employed in an attempt to select the most appropriate method for the particular data in the study. A common method is to replace the missing (censored) values with half the detection limit. This method has been recommended for data sets where much of the data are below the limit of detection or where the data are highly skewed; with a geometric standard deviation of 3 or more. Another method, involving replacing the censored data with the limit of detection divided by the square root of 2, has been recommended when relatively few data are below the detection limit or where data are not highly skewed. A third method that was examined is Cohen's method. This involves mathematical extrapolation of the left-hand tail of the distribution, based on the distribution of the uncensored data, and calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate of the arithmetic mean. When these three methods were applied to the data in this study it was found that the first two simple methods give similar results in most cases. Cohen's method on the other hand, gave results that were generally, but not always, higher than simpler methods and in some cases gave extremely high and even implausible estimates of the mean. It appears that if the data deviate substantially from a simple log-normal distribution, particularly if high outliers are present, then Cohen's method produces erratic and unreliable estimates. After examining these results, and both the distributions and proportions of censored data, it was decided that the half limit of detection method was most suitable in this particular study.

A cross country analysis of dynamics in comparative advantage and trade patterns in textiles and clothing

This paper examines pattern of comparative advantage in textiles and clothing trade as revealed by export shares of selected developed and developing economies. The estimated revealed comparative advantage (RCA) indices provided strong evidence of comparative advantage enjoyed by the developing economies. However, a few developed high income economies have enjoyed sustainable comparative advantage, especially in textiles trade. Significant negative correlations are observed between country specific income levels and the estimated absolute and relative RCA indices. While most of the developing economies achieved significant improvement of comparative advantage over time in clothing trade, the evidence is mixed for textiles. Additional evidence from Grubel-Lloyd (G-L) index of intra industry trade (IIT) suggest that global textiles trade could be mainly explained on the basis of product differentiation and economies of scale while clothing trade is more based on comparative advantage. Results of the study also suggest that the trading nations should engage in exploitation of forms of competition such as product differentiation in textiles trade, whereas for clothing, cost minimising remains a valid strategy.

The politics of the pharmaceutical industry and access to medicines : world pharmacy and India

The Pharmaceutical Industry presents one of India’s most successful stories of economic expansion and improvements in public health. Indian firms have made access to quality medicines possible and affordable in many developing countries. Indian pharmaceuticals are also exported on a large scale to the United States and other highly regulated markets. A wave of mergers, acquisitions and tie-ups point to growing integration between Indian firms and global pharma multinationals.

The Politics of the Pharmaceutical Industry and Access to Medicines: World Pharmacy and India examines this important industry from different economic, social and political perspectives. Topics covered include the implications of TRIPS-compliant intellectual property rights, the role of flexibilities under TRIPS, the market regulation system, the role of Indian firms in exporting HIV/AIDS medications to Africa, the issue of free trade agreements, the power and reach of foreign pharmaceutical multinationals in India’s domestic market, and the sustainability of India as a major generics supplier.

Migration, unemployment and trade

Migration, Unemployment and Trade focuses on the issues of migration, welfare and unemployment in a trade and development framework. Several chapters of the book analyze the implications of internal labor mobility in a model designed to highlight its implications for regional welfare, urban unemployment, rural-urban dichotomy and structural adjustment. An important innovation in this work is the disaggregation of the economy and the use of separate utility functions to highlight non-homogeneity of preferences. The book also deals with international mobility of factors in different frameworks. In particular it concentrates on the highly emotive issue of legal and illegal migration. Thus this work incorporates interesting and important features of labor economics and factor mobility into trade and distortion theory.

The global biopharma industry and the rise of Indian drug multinationals: implication for Australian generics policy

This article provides a synopsis of the new dynamics of the global biopharma industry. The emergence of global generics companies with capabilities approximating those of 'big pharma' has accelerated the blurring of boundaries between the innovator and generics sectors. Biotechnology-based products form a large and growing segment of prescription drug markets and regulatory pathways for biogenerics are imminent. Indian biopharma multinationals with large-scale efficient manufacturing plants and growing R&D capabilities are now major suppliers of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and generic drugs across both developed and developing countries. In response to generic competition, innovator companies employ a range of life cycle management techniques, including the launch of 'authorised generics'. The generics segment in Australia will see high growth rates in coming years but the prospect for local manufacturing is bleak. The availability of cheap generics in international markets has put pressure on Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) pricing arrangements, and a new policy direction was announced in November 2006. Lower generics prices will have a negative impact on some incumbent suppliers but industrial renewal policies for the medicines industry in Australia are better focused on higher value R&D activities and niche manufacturing of sophisticated products.