Balancing comfort expectations and greenhouse gas emissions, thermal comfort in office buildings in a changing climate

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the construction sector has the greatest potential for climate change mitigation. This work investigates the potential for climate change mitigation in naturally ventilated and mixed mode office buildings, by evaluating the range of influence of building design and occupants on greenhouse gas emissions as well as thermal and visual comfort.

Thermal comfort is evaluated according to the EN 15251 adaptive thermal comfort model, visual comfort is based on daylight autonomy and view. Parametric studies have been conducted based on building simulation for the climate of Athens, Greece. Input data are based on a literature review, and on results from a field study conducted among office occupants and architects in Athens.

The results show that the influence of occupants on greenhouse gas emissions is larger than the influence of building design. Energy saving office equipment, as well as active use of building controls for shading and lighting by occupants are crucial parameters regarding the reduction of CO2 emissions. In mixed mode buildings, the coefficient of performance of the cooling system is an important parameter as well. Regarding thermal and visual comfort, the influence of building design is predominant. A green building, well protected against heat from the sun and able to balance solar and internal heat gains, provides higher comfort levels and is less affected by the influence of occupants. In mixed mode buildings, building design is the predominant influence on the magnitude of cooling loads. A hot summer including heat waves can significantly reduce thermal comfort and increase the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Green buildings are least affected by these influences.

The EN 15251 adaptive thermal comfort model provides a thermal comfort evaluation method valid throughout Europe. However, for the Mediterranean climate of Athens, Greece, most of the configurations investigated within this study do not meet the requirements according to this model. EN 15251 refers to an adaptive thermal comfort model for naturally ventilated and to a static model for mechanically ventilated buildings. For mixed mode buildings, the static model is recommended, but literature indicates that occupants in those buildings might be more tolerant towards higher temperatures. The hypothetical application of the EN 15251 adaptive thermal comfort model in mixed mode offices, as investigated in this study, shows potential for greenhouse gas emission savings. However, this influence is small compared to that of building design and occupants. Conclusions are drawn regarding the categorisation and exceeding criteria according to EN 15251 adaptive thermal comfort model for offices in a Mediterranean climate.

The results of this work show, that not only green buildings, but also green occupants can significantly contribute to the mitigation of the climate change. Mechanisms of the real estate market as well as the lifestyle of occupants are important influences in this context. Sustainability therefore refers to finding the right balance between occupant’s comfort expectations and resulting greenhouse gas emissions for a specific building, rather than optimisation of single parameters

Balancing buildings and occupants - a holistic approach to thermal comfort and greenhouse gas emissions in mixed mode offices

This paper describes a holistic approach to comfort and greenhouse gas emissions in mixed mode offices. It is based on parametric studies for a typical cellular office in the Mediterranean climate of Athens, Greece, using building simulation.

Considered parameters are the influence of different building design, varying occupant behaviour and internal heat loads, as well as of an exceptionally hot summer. Additionally, the performance of a cooling strategy following the comfort limits according to the EN 15251 adaptive model is compared with the common fixed cooling set point 22°C.

The performance of mixed mode offices is evaluated regarding thermal comfort, daylight autonomy and related greenhouse gas emissions. Results indicate strategies to improve sustainability in mixed mode offices in Athens, by balancing the influencing parameters.

Guided wave propagation and spectral element method for debonding damage assessment in RC structures

A concrete–steel interface spectral element is developed to study the guided wave propagation along the steel rebar in the concrete. Scalar damage parameters characterizing changes in the interface (debonding damage) are incorporated into the formulation of the spectral finite element that is used for damage detection of reinforced concrete structures. Experimental tests are carried out on a reinforced concrete beam with embedded piezoelectric elements to verify the performance of the proposed model and algorithm. Parametric studies are performed to evaluate the effect of different damage scenarios on wave propagation in the reinforced concrete structures. Numerical simulations and experimental results show that the method is effective to model wave propagation along the steel rebar in concrete and promising to detect damage in the concrete–steel interface.

Artificial neural network analysis of twin tunnelling-induced ground settlements

In this paper, we apply a computational intelligence method for tunnelling settlement prediction. A supervised feed forward back propagation neural network is used to predict the surface settlement during twin-tunnelling while surface buildings are considered in the models. The performance of the statistical neural network structure is tested on a dataset provided by numerical parametric studies conducted by ABAQUS software based on Shiraz line 1 metro data. Six input variables are fed to neural network model for predicting the surface settlement. These include tunnel center depth, distance between centerlines of twin tunnels, buildings width and building bending stiffness, and building weight and distance to tunnel centerline. Simulation results indicate that the proposed NN models are able to accurately predict the surface settlement.

Modelling of the stiffness evolution of truss core structures damaged by plastic buckling

A finite element study based on 1D beam element model is performed in order to investigate the mechanical behavior of an elasto-plastic beam loaded in axial compression over its buckling limit. The mode of loading is related to the damage of truss-cored beams in truss-cored laminates. The analysis takes into account the effects of geometry and material properties. The results of the FEM analysis are used for developing a simple mechanical model based on the basic Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and accounts for the beam compressibility. The model uses phenomenological functions containing parameters related to the basic material and geometrical properties. The presented model is developed in the form of closed solution which does not require complex numerical methods or extensive parametric studies. Predictions of the compressive stiffness degradation of truss-cored composites are made with the proposed model and compared with the results of FEM simulations. The error of the stiffness prediction with respect to the FEM results is within 10% over a 5 fold range of stiffness.

A study of guided wave propagation in timber pole using spectral finite element method

Timber is one of the most widely used structural material all over the world. Round timbers can be seen as a structural component in historical buildings, jetties, short span bridges and also as piles for foundation and poles for electrical and power distribution. To evaluate the current condition of these cylindrical type timber structures, guided wave has a great potential. However, the difficulties associated with the guided wave propagation in timber materials includes orthotropic behaviour of wood, moisture contents, temperature, grain direction, etc. In addition, the effect of fully or partially filled surrounding media, such as soil, water, etc. causes attenuation on the generated stress wave. In order to investigate the effects of these parameters on guided wave propagation, extensive numerical simulation is required to conduct parametric studies. Moreover, due to the presence of multi modes in guided wave propagation, dispersion curves are of great importance. Even though conventional finite element method (FEM) can determine dispersion curves along with wave propagation in time domain, it is highly computationally expensive. Furthermore, incorporating orthotropic behaviour and surrounding media to model a thick cylindrical wave (large diameter cylindrical structures) make conventional FEM inefficient for this purpose. In contrast, spectral finite element method (SFEM) is a semi analytical method to model the guided wave propagation which does not need fine meshes compared to the other methods, such as FEM or finite difference method (FDM). Also, even distribution of mass and stiffness of structures can be obtained with very few elements using SFEM. In this paper, the suitability of SFEM is investigated to model guided wave propagation through an orthotropic cylindrical waveguide with the presence of surrounding soil. Both the frequency domain analysis (dispersion curves) and time domain reconstruction for a multi-mode generated input signal are presented under different loading location. The dispersion curves obtained from SFEM are compared against analytical solution to verify its accuracy. Lastly, different numerical issues to solve for the dispersion curves and time domain results using SFEM are also discussed.

Experimental investigation of tailored hot stamping parts

It is known that tailored hot stamped parts, which have locally graded properties, can improve car crashworthiness. In this experimental study, a heated tool was used to decrease the temperature difference between the hot blank and the tool which led to lower cooling rates and softer properties. First, a flat heated tool was used to investigate the effects of process parameters on metallurgical and mechanical properties. Based on the range of parameters examined, press force and quenching time did not have a significant effect on the post-formed mechanical properties. In the next step, a hatshaped channel tool with heating system was used to produce tailored hot stamping parts. The results show considerable differences between hardness values of the top and side faces in the soft section, while the hardness was almost uniform in the hard section. These experimental results generally compare well with the results of previous numerical parametric studies performed by the authors, which identified less robustness of the tailored hot stamping process compared to conventional hot stamping.

Parametric conditional frailty models for recurrent cardiovascular events in the lipid study

Background Analysis of recurrent event data is frequently needed in clinical and epidemiological studies. An important issue in such analysis is how to account for the dependence of the events in an individual and any unobserved heterogeneity of the event propensity across individuals.Methods We applied a number of conditional frailty and nonfrailty models in an analysis involving recurrent myocardial infarction events in the Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease study. A multiple variable risk prediction model was developed for both males and females. Results A Weibull model with a gamma frailty term fitted the data better than other frailty models for each gender. Among nonfrailty models the stratified survival model fitted the data best for each gender. The relative risk estimated by the elapsed time model was close to that estimated by the gap time model. We found that a cholesterol-lowering drug, pravastatin (the intervention being tested in the trial) had significant protective effect against the occurrence of myocardial infarction in men (HR¼0.71, 95% CI0.60–0.83). However, the treatment effect was not significant in women due to smaller sample size (HR¼0.75, 95% CI 0.51–1.10). There were no significant interactions between the treatment effect and each recurrent MI event (p¼0.24 for men and p¼0.55 for women). The risk of developing an MI event for a male who had an MI event during follow-up was about 3.4 (95% CI 2.6–4.4) times the risk compared with those who did not have an MI event. The corresponding relative risk for a female was about 7.8 (95% CI 4.4–13.6). Limitations The number of female patients was relatively small compared with their male counterparts, which may result in low statistical power to find real differences in the effect of treatment and other potential risk factors.Conclusions The conditional frailty model suggested that after accounting for all the risk factors in the model, there was still unmeasured heterogeneity of the risk for myocardial infarction, indicating the effect of subject-specific risk factors. These risk prediction models can be used to classify cardiovascular disease patients into different risk categories and may be useful for the most effective targeting of preventive therapies for cardiovascular disease.

Conducting event studies with Asia-Pacific security market data

We investigate the effectiveness of several well-known parametric and non-parametric event study test statistics with security price data from the major Asia-Pacific security markets. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation experiments with actual daily security returns data reveal that the parametric test statistics are prone to misspecification with Asia-Pacific returns data. Two non-parametric tests, a rank test [Corrado and Zivney (Corrado, C.J., Zivney, T.L., 1992, The specification and power of the sign test in event study hypothesis tests using daily stock returns, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 27(3), 465-478)] and a sign test [Cowan (Cowan, A.R., 1992, Non-parametric event study tests, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 1(4), 343–358)] were the best performers overall with market model excess returns computed using an equal weight index.

Parametric modelling of architectural surfaces

Parametric modelling is gaining in popularity as both a fabrication and design tool, but its application in the architectural design industry has not been widely explored. Parametric modelling has the ability to generate complex forms with intuitively reactive components, allowing designers to express and fabricate structures previously too laborious and geometrically complex to realise. This alIows designers to address a project at both the macro and micro levels of resolution in the governing control surface and the individual repetitive component. This two level modelling control, of component and overall surface, can allow designers to explore new types of form generation subject to parametric constraints. Shading screens have been selected as the focus for this paper and are used as a medium to explore form generation within a given set of functional parameters. Screens can have many applications in a building but for the purpose of the following case studies, lighting quality and passive sun control are the main functional requirement. A set of screen components have been designed within certain shading parameters to create a generic component that can automatically adapt to any given climatic conditions. These will then be applied to surfaces of varying degrees of geometric complexity to be analysed in their ability to correctly tessellate and create a unified screening array true to the lighting requirements placed on the generic component.

Survival analysis of time-to-event data in respiratory health research studies

This article provides a review of techniques for the analysis of survival data arising from respiratory health studies. Popular techniques such as the Kaplan–Meier survival plot and the Cox proportional hazards model are presented and illustrated using data from a lung cancer study. Advanced issues are also discussed, including parametric proportional hazards models, accelerated failure time models, time-varying explanatory variables, simultaneous analysis of multiple types of outcome events and the restricted mean survival time, a novel measure of the effect of treatment.

Can the direct medical cost of chronic disease be transferred across different countries? Using cost-of-illness studies on type 2 diabetes, epilepsy and schizophrenia as examples

OBJECTIVES: To systematically review cost of illness studies for schizophrenia (SC), epilepsy (EP) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and explore the transferability of direct medical cost across countries.

METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was performed to yield studies that estimated direct medical costs. A generalized linear model (GLM) with gamma distribution and log link was utilized to explore the variation in costs that accounted by the included factors. Both parametric (Random-effects model) and non-parametric (Boot-strapping) meta-analyses were performed to pool the converted raw cost data (expressed as percentage of GDP/capita of the country where the study was conducted).

RESULTS: In total, 93 articles were included (40 studies were for T2DM, 34 studies for EP and 19 studies for SC). Significant variances were detected inter- and intra-disease classes for the direct medical costs. Multivariate analysis identified that GDP/capita (p<0.05) was a significant factor contributing to the large variance in the cost results. Bootstrapping meta-analysis generated more conservative estimations with slightly wider 95% confidence intervals (CI) than the parametric meta-analysis, yielding a mean (95%CI) of 16.43% (11.32, 21.54) for T2DM, 36.17% (22.34, 50.00) for SC and 10.49% (7.86, 13.41) for EP.

CONCLUSIONS: Converting the raw cost data into percentage of GDP/capita of individual country was demonstrated to be a feasible approach to transfer the direct medical cost across countries. The approach from our study to obtain an estimated direct cost value along with the size of specific disease population from each jurisdiction could be used for a quick check on the economic burden of particular disease for countries without such data.