Are real exchange rates nonlinear with a unit root? Evidence on PPP for Italy : a note

In this article, we apply the recently developed threshold autoregression model to examine both linearity and stationarity of Italy's real exchange rate vis--vis her six trading partner (G6) countries. Our main finding is that Italy's real exchange rate is a nonlinear process that is not characterized by a unit root process for five of six trading partner countries. This provides strong support for purchasing power parity.

Evidence on PPP from a cointegration test with multiple structural breaks

Despite a plethora of studies on purchasing power parity (PPP), those that take a cointegration approach have found mixed evidence on PPP. The goal of this article is to obviate existing tensions in the PPP literature by using a simple test for cointegration between nominal exchange rate and relative prices that accounts for multiple structural breaks. We find that for 14 out of 15 OECD countries, there is evidence of a cointegration relationship between nominal exchange rate and relative prices at the 5% level. Only for Japan, we find evidence for cointegration at the 2.5% level. These results suggest overwhelming evidence of support for PPP for the OECD countries.

Evidence on PPP for selected Asian countries from a panel cointegration test with structural breaks

The goal of this article is to examine evidence for purchasing power parity (PPP) for a panel of Asian countries, namely Malaysia, Thailand, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Philippines. Our main contribution is that for the first time in this literature we use a panel cointegration test, developed by Westerlund (2006), which allows us to incorporate multiple structural breaks. We find that using Gregory and Hansen's (1996) residual-based test for cointegration and Pedroni's (1999) panel cointegration test without structural breaks provide weak evidence of cointegration between nominal exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar and relative prices. However, when we use the Lagrange multiplier panel structural break cointegration test we find strong evidence of panel cointegration, providing evidence for PPP.

Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks

This paper aims to establish, train, validate, and test artificial neural network (ANN) models for modelling risk allocation decision-making process in public-private partnership (PPP) projects, mainly drawing upon transaction cost economics. An industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted to examine the risk allocation practice in PPP projects and collect the data for training the ANN models. The training and evaluation results, when compared with those of using traditional MLR modelling technique, show that the ANN models are satisfactory for modelling risk allocation decision-making process. The empirical evidence further verifies that it is appropriate to utilize transaction cost economics to interpret risk allocation decision-making process. It is recommended that, in addition to partners' risk management mechanism maturity level, decision-makers, both from public and private sectors, should also seriously consider influential factors including partner's risk management routines, partners' cooperation history, partners' risk management commitment, and risk management environmental uncertainty. All these factors influence the formation of optimal risk allocation strategies, either by their individual or interacting effects.

A modified LLC panel unit root test of the PPP hypothesis

In a recent study, Westerlund (Empir Econ 37:517–531, 2009) shows that the performance of the popular LLC (Levin et al., J Econ 108:1–24, 2002) panel unit root test depends critically on the choice of lag truncation used when correcting for serial correlation, and that it is only when this parameter is set as a function of time that the power raises above size. The purpose of the current paper is to propose a modified test that does not suffer from this drawback. The new test is not only simpler to compute but also superior in terms of small-sample performance, which is illustrated using an example purchasing power parity for less developed countries.

Principal agent problems evident in Chinese PPP infrastructure projects

The demand for infrastructure remains high in China. In order to meet this demand under conditions of limited government funding availability, local governments have increasingly sought private participation through ‘public, private partnerships’ (PPPs). While PPPs are recognised as a reliable mode for delivering infrastructure projects, agency problems are also known to interfere with their success. The nature of these agency problems, along with the types of partnership arrangements under which they occur, is the subject of this research. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with PPP consultants working on infrastructure projects in China. Results suggest that opportunistic behaviour is to be found both within the private sector and within the government sector. While the private sector is shown to take advantage of ‘information asymmetries,’ the government sector is shown to allocate project risks and responsibilities disproportionately in their favour. Results also indicate that PPP arrangements between local government and ‘state owned enterprises’ (SOEs) were less prone to agency abuse, while agency problems in PPP arrangements between local government and private firms were relatively greater.

Using the Big Mac index for comparing construction costs internationally

This paper explores the use of purchasing power parity (PPP) in the comparison of construction costs between different countries, and whether the development of construction-specific indices will improve reliability.

The approach adopted is to compare the construction cost of a typical five star international hotel per square metre in each of ten major cities using a range of PPP methods and to comment on their variability. In particular, this paper looks at whether an index based on the price of a McDonalds Big Mac3 hamburger is a viable alternative when compared against the mainstream methods. The recent publication of construction-specific indices as part of the Eurostat-OECD joint PPP program is also compared against generic indices and the discrepancy is calculated.

The paper concludes with reflections about which approach is preferable when attempting to assess global construction relativities and what further research is needed.

International comparisons of construction industry performance: further investigations

While there have been many attempts at comparisons of construction performance over the past 50 years, the results have generally been inconclusive and/or contradictory.

Such comparisons are of great interest to industry, governments and theorists alike but there is little agreement as to how they are best done. A variety of methodologies have been used, however, the lack of satisfactory outcomes has been due largely to one factor, the lack of a truly reliable method for comparing construction costs in different currencies

Exchange rates are recognised as being unsuitable, and while purchasing power parity (PPP) has a long history, the method still has many critics. In addition, the nature of the building industry and its products makes the establishment of reliable construction PPPs very difficult. Both the UN’s International Comparison Program (ICP) and the European Union gather data for the production of construction-specific PPP indices, but neither body publishes them, as there is too much doubt about their reliability.

New approaches are being developed and some are soon to be trialled. This paper looks at the problems, describes and discusses some new approaches, and assesses their potential.

Interpreting risk allocation mechanism in public-private partnership projects : an empirical study in a transaction cost economics perspective

Risk allocation in public-private partnership (PPP) projects is currently claimed as capability driven. While lacking theoretical support, the claim is often 'violated' by current industrial practice. There is thus a need for formal mechanisms to interpret why a particular risk is retained by government in one project while transferred to private partners in another. From the viewpoint of transaction cost economics (TCE), integrated with the resource-based view (RBV) of organizational capabilities, this paper proposed a theoretical framework for understanding risk allocation practice in PPP projects. The theories underlying the major constructs and their links were articulated. Data gathered from an industry-wide survey were used to test the framework. The results of multiple linear regression (MLR) generally support the proposed framework. It has been found that partners' risk management routine, mechanism, commitment, cooperation history, and uncertainties associated with project risk management could serve to determine the risk allocation strategies adopted in a PPP project. This theoretical framework thus provides both government and private agencies with a logical and complete understanding of the process of selecting the allocation strategy for a particular risk in PPP projects. Moreover, it could be utilized to steer the risk allocation strategy by controlling certain critical determinants identified in the study. Study limitations and future research directions have also been set out.

The purchasing power parity revisited : new evidence for 16 OECD countries from panel unit root tests with structural breaks

In this paper, we apply a range of univariate unit root tests including the Lagrangian multiplier (LM) univariate and panel unit root tests to examine PPP for 16 OECD countries. In addition to incorporating structural breaks in the univariate exchange rate series, we also incorporate structural breaks in the panel exchange rate models. Our main finding from univariate tests, with and without structural breaks and panel LM test with one break, is that real exchange rates are not stationary, inconsistent with PPP hypothesis. However, when we incorporate two structural breaks in the univariate LM test, for most countries we find that real exchange rates are stationary. Moreover, we obtain overwhelming support for PPP when we apply panel LM unit root tests with two structural breaks.

Decision making to support an integrated infrastructure supply chain industrial ecological approach within public private partnerships

Supply chains are complex adaptive systems for which final performance depends upon numerous interdependent decisions made by numerous firms which synthesise inputs from various resources systems.  The dynamic interdependent behaviour of social, economic, material and informational resource systems within eco-industrial settings that support the built environment life cycle supply chains can be studied at the supply chain level.  The impact of megaprojects is significant and holds promise to explore the impact of decisions on various systems as it combines project and system boundaries.  Megaoprojects considered as major events within systems can produce critical revolutionary impacts on the systems within which they are embedded.  The decisions that are made on megaprojects are central to risk management.  typically major infrastructure projects are procured through a form of public private partnership (PPP).  The core principle of PPP is value for money which refers to the best available outcome attempting to take account of all benefits, costs and risks over the whole life of the procurement.  In this paper the focus is on Australia where there has been considerable acitivity in the use of PPPs.  With recent national infrastucture packages proposed to stimulate the economy due to the global financial crisis, decision modelling on risks is a revelant and critical matter not only in practice but also in the research community.  PPPs encourage the whole-of-lifecycle approach in the procurement and management of public sector assets by transparently recognising the costs and risks associated with the whole life of the required service or facility, thus integrated whole of life supply chains can be considered.  By creating a single point of responsibility for an entire project from inception through operation, a strong incentive is created for thinking about the effects that a design or construction decision will have on the effectiveness and efficiency of managing and maintaining a facility during its operational life.  The decision to procure holistic supply chains becomes a much more viable commercial reality in the PPP environment than previously considered in the usual commercial construction spot transactional approach.  These types of decisions tend to be imprecise, approximate and complex requireing justification and reasoning logic rather than the classical 'truth' logic.  The purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical decision framework which combines interdependency and multi-values logic for supply chain procurement modelling.

Risk allocation in public-private partnership projects : an innovative model with an intelligent approach

Both the increasing private participation in public projects and the critical importance of appropriate risk allocation to the success of Public-private partnership (PPP) projects justify specific research on how to establish effective risk allocation strategies in PPP projects. Partner’s risk management capability is currently the main concern to risk allocation in PPP projects. Following the transaction cost economics, it is argued that factors such as partner’s commitment and risk management structure should be considered simultaneously in order to develop effective risk allocation strategies. Based on the holistic capability-commitment governance-driven view, this paper proposed a model for generating an optimal risk allocation strategy in PPP projects. The model is demonstrated and described. An artificial intelligent technique integrated with fuzzy logic for model testing and validation is then introduced and justified. The innovative model is expected to provide a logical and complete understanding of the risk allocation strategy selection process, and to provide stakeholders with a richer framework than previously existing ones to guide their decision-making on risk allocation strategies.

Allocating risks in public-private partnership projects using a transaction cost economics approach - a case study

Public-private partnership (PPP) projects are often characterised by increased complexity and uncertainty due to their idiosyncrasy in the management and delivery processes such as long-term lifecycle, incomplete contracting, and the multitude of stakeholders. An appropriate risk allocation is particularly crucial to achieving project success. This paper focuses on the risk allocation in PPP projects and argues that the transaction cost economics (TCE) theory can integrate the economics part, which is currently missing, into the risk management research. A TCE-based approach is proposed as a logical framework for allocating risks between public and private sectors in PPP projects. A case study of the Southern Cross Station redevelopment project in Australia is presented to illustrate the approach. The allocation of important risks is put under scrutiny. Lessons learnt are discussed and alternative management approaches drawing on TCE theory are proposed.

Determinants of efficient risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects in Australia

Risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects, which are mainly referred to as public-private partnership (PPP) projects, is a challenging job due to the nature of incomplete contracting. An investigation into the mechanism that guides the formation of efficient risk allocation strategies is thus desirable. Drawing on the transaction cost economics and resource-based view of organizational capability, this paper has identified five main features of the transactions associated with risk allocation in PPP projects. They include partners’ risk management routine, partners’ risk management mechanism, partners’ cooperation history, risk management environmental uncertainty, and partners’ risk management commitment. For achieving cost efficiency, different risk allocation strategies may suit different conditions of the features. Accordingly, a theoretical framework and five hypotheses were proposed for testing. Data collected in an industrywide survey were analyzed using multiple linear regression technique. It was found that generally, the identified features are determinants in the decision-making process of efficient risk allocation. Therefore, the proposed theoretical framework provides both government and private agencies with not only a logical and holistic understanding of but also a support tool for decision making on risk allocation strategy in PPP projects. Study limitations and future research directions are also set out.