Do ENSO and coastal development enhance coastal burial of terrestrial carbon?

Carbon cycling on the east coast of Australia has the potential to be strongly affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensification and coastal development (industrialization and urbanization). We performed paleoreconstructions of estuarine sediments from a seagrass-dominated estuary on the east coast of Australia (Tuggerah Lake, New South Wales) to test the hypothesis that millennial-scale ENSO intensification and European settlement in Australia have increased the transfer of organic carbon from land into coastal waters. Our data show that carbon accumulation rates within coastal sediments increased significantly during periods of maximum millennial-scale ENSO intensity ("super-ENSO") and coastal development. We suggest that ENSO and coastal development destabilize and liberate terrestrial soil carbon, which, during rainfall events (e.g., La Niña), washes into estuaries and becomes trapped and buried by coastal vegetation (seagrass in this case). Indeed, periods of high carbon burial were generally characterized as having rapid sedimentation rates, higher content of fine-grained sediments, and increased content of wood and charcoal fragments. These results, though preliminary, suggest that coastal development and ENSO intensificationboth of which are predicted to increase over the coming centurycan enhance capture and burial of terrestrial carbon by coastal ecosystems. These findings have important relevance for current efforts to build an understanding of terrestrial- marine carbon connectivity into global carbon budgets.

Spatial and temporal changes in abundance of the infaunal bivalve Soletellina alba (Lamark, 1818) during a time of drought in the seasonally-closed Hopkins River Estuary, Victoria Australia

The infaunal bivalve Soletellina alba is susceptible to mass mortalities during annual winter flooding in the Hopkins River Estuary, southern Australia. Periods of low salinity (≤1) are the likely cause of these mass mortality events, which can occur in seasonally-closed estuaries when high winter flows are sufficient to flush all salt water from the estuary. Core samples of S. alba were collected from two water depths across four times and at three sites near the mouth of the estuary. Minimal to zero abundances of large S. alba (>1 mm) were expected to be sampled, particularly at the shallower water depth, during a typical winter flood event. However, the present study occurred during a period of drought, which led to the absence of winter flooding. This absence of winter flooding prevented the occurrence of lethal salinities (i.e. ≤1) in the estuary during this period and a greater number of living S. alba adults were sampled. Abundances of juvenile and adult S. alba were still variable, even in the absence of winter flooding, and reflected an interaction between date, site and water depth. However, no mass mortalities of adults were observed during the drought conditions in contrast to what occurs during typical winter flood events and provides support for the hypothesis that winter flooding is responsible for past mass mortalities.

Climatic variation and breeding in the Australian magpie (Gymnorhina Tibicen) : a case study using existing data

To anticipate the effects of climate change on Australia’s avifauna, it is first necessary to understand the current effects of climate (including climate variability) on life histories, and to examine the scope and nature of existing data that may provide the necessary historical context to anticipate the effects of climate change. This study examines naturally occurring geographical gradients (altitude, latitude) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) as integrated measures of climate. These are then compared with the timing and ‘amount’ of breeding recorded for the Australian Magpie (Gymnorhina tibicen) using data from Birds Australia’s Nest Record Scheme and Atlas of Australian Birds, the NSW Bird Atlassers Inc.’s NSW Bird Atlas, and the Canberra Ornitholgists Group’s Garden Bird Survey. For this common, easily identified species, these data suggest links between Australian Magpie breeding and all three environmental variables. Breeding became later as altitude increased, the proportion of breeding records increased from north to south, and years of high SOI corresponded to more (and earlier) breeding in this species. That annual climatic fluctuations have a direct, immediate and substantial effect on breeding in the Australian Magpie, particularly on the amount of breeding that occurs, implies that longer term changes in climate will have substantial impacts on populations. Results were not solely temperature-driven, which makes predicting climate change impacts difficult. For rainfall, predictions are far less precise and regional variation is higher. The results also highlight the potential and limitations of current survey techniques for documenting the impacts of climate change on birds; in particular, the Nest Record Scheme does not measure the amount of breeding that occurs, but a useful index of this can be derived from bird atlassing data

Temporal and spatial variability of breeding in Australian birds and the potential implications of climate change

Climate change has profound implications for biodiversity worldwide. To understand its effects on Australia's avifauna, we need to evaluate the effects of annual climatic variability and geographical climate gradients. Here, we use national datasets to examine variation in breeding of 16 species of common and widespread Australian landbirds, in relation to four variables: altitude, latitude, year and the Southern Oscillation Index. Analysis of 30 years of nesting records confirmed that breeding was generally later in colder altitudes and latitudes (geographic variation), but was not consistently related to year or the Southern Oscillation Index (temporal variation). However, power to detect expected temporal effects was low. The timing of breeding became significantly earlier with year only in south-eastern Australia. In contrast, an index of breeding activity (the proportion of atlas records for a species for which breeding was reported) increased with increasing winter values of the Southern Oscillation Index (generally wetter conditions) for all 16 species across Australia. This suggests that annual fluctuations in rainfall can have dramatic and immediate effects on breeding, even for largely sedentary, seasonally breeding species. If, as expected, climate change creates drier conditions over much of Australia, we predict a marked negative effect on bird breeding.

Avian influenza infection dynamics under variable climatic conditions, viral prevalence is rainfall driven in waterfowl from temperate, south-east Australia

Understanding Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) infection dynamics in wildlife is crucial because of possible virus spill over to livestock and humans. Studies from the northern hemisphere have suggested several ecological and environmental drivers of AIV prevalence in wild birds. To determine if the same drivers apply in the southern hemisphere, where more irregular environmental conditions prevail, we investigated AIV prevalence in ducks in relation to biotic and abiotic factors in south-eastern Australia. We sampled duck faeces for AIV and tested for an effect of bird numbers, rainfall anomaly, temperature anomaly and long-term ENSO (El-Niño Southern Oscillation) patterns on AIV prevalence. We demonstrate a positive long term effect of ENSO-related rainfall on AIV prevalence. We also found a more immediate response to rainfall where AIV prevalence was positively related to rainfall in the preceding 3-7 months. Additionally, for one duck species we found a positive relationship between their numbers and AIV prevalence, while prevalence was negatively or not affected by duck numbers in the remaining four species studied. In Australia largely non-seasonal rainfall patterns determine breeding opportunities and thereby influence bird numbers. Based on our findings we suggest that rainfall influences age structures within populations, producing an influx of immunologically naïve juveniles within the population, which may subsequently affect AIV infection dynamics. Our study suggests that drivers of AIV dynamics in the northern hemisphere do not have the same influence at our south-east Australian field site in the southern hemisphere due to more erratic climatological conditions.