Congestion pricing and active transport - evidence from five opportunities for natural experiment

Congestion pricing schemes have been implemented in cities worldwide as a means of addressing externalities associated with inefficient price signals in transport systems. Limited evidence exists however on the secondary impacts of these schemes, which may include both environmental and health benefits associated with a resultant reduction in motor vehicle usage. There is increasing recognition that transport behaviours may play a role as opportunistic population level targets to reduce physical inactivity. Yet limited evidence currently exists on the effectiveness of transport interventions, such as congestion pricing schemes, for improving physical activity levels.This study aims to examine the physical activity effects of congestion pricing, with the health benefits of physical activity well established. Congestion pricing schemes implemented internationally were considered as 'natural experiments' and evidence of modal shift from vehicle to active forms of transport or physical activity effect was reviewed. Twelve studies were included from a search of peer-reviewed and 'grey' literature, with overall evidence for a physical activity or modal shift effect considered weak. The quality of the available evidence was also considered to be low.This is not to say that congestion pricing schemes may not have important secondary physical activity related health benefits. Instead, this review highlights the paucity of evidence that has been collected from real-world implementation of congestion pricing schemes. Given the growing recognition of the importance of distal mediators and determinants of health and the need for an 'all-of-government' approach more and better quality evidence of effectiveness of transport interventions for a broad range of outcomes, including health, is required. Significant barriers to the collection of such evidence exist, with strategies for overcoming some of these barriers identified. Only with a better understanding of the full range of potential health impacts can transport policy be fully utilised as a tool for population health.

Changing the environment to improve population health: a framework for considering exposure in natural experimental studies

There is renewed optimism regarding the use of natural experimental studies to generate evidence as to the effectiveness of population health interventions. Natural experimental studies capitalise on environmental and policy events that alter exposure to certain social, economic or environmental factors that influence health. Natural experimental studies can be useful for examining the impact of changes to 'upstream' determinants, which may not be amenable to controlled experiments. However, while natural experiments provide opportunities to generate evidence, they often present certain conceptual and methodological obstacles. Population health interventions that alter the physical or social environment are usually administered broadly across populations and communities. The breadth of these interventions means that variation in exposure, uptake and impact may be complex. Yet many evaluations of natural experiments focus narrowly on identifying suitable 'exposed' and 'unexposed' populations for comparison. In this paper, we discuss conceptual and analytical issues relating to defining and measuring exposure to interventions in this context, including how recent advances in technology may enable researchers to better understand the nature of population exposure to changes in the built environment. We argue that when it is unclear whether populations are exposed to an intervention, it may be advantageous to supplement traditional impact assessments with observational approaches that investigate differing levels of exposure. We suggest that an improved understanding of changes in exposure will assist the investigation of the impact of complex natural experiments in population health.

Fire management for biodiversity conservation : key research questions and our capacity to answer them

Knowing how species respond to fire regimes is essential for ecologically sustainable management. This axiom raises two important questions: (1) what knowledge is the most important to develop and (2) to what extent can current research methods deliver that knowledge? We identify three areas of required knowledge: (i) a mechanistic understanding of species’ responses to fire regimes; (ii) knowledge of how the spatial and temporal arrangement of fires influences the biota; and (iii) an understanding of interactions of fire regimes with other processes. We review the capacity of empirical research to address these knowledge gaps, and reveal many limitations. Manipulative experiments are limited by the number and scope of treatments that can be applied, natural experiments are limited by treatment availability and confounding factors, and longitudinal studies are difficult to maintain, particularly due to unplanned disturbance events. Simulation modelling is limited by the quality of the underlying empirical data and by uncertainty in how well model structure represents reality. Due to the constraints on large-scale, long-term research, the potential for management experiments to inform adaptive management is limited. Rather than simply recommending adaptive management, we define a research agenda to maximise the rate of learning in this difficult field. This includes measuring responses at a species level, building capacity to implement natural experiments, undertaking simulation modelling, and judicious application of experimental approaches. Developing ecologically sustainable fire management practices will require sustained research effort and a sophisticated research agenda based on carefully targeting appropriate methods to address critical management questions.

Street characteristics preferred for transportation walking among older adults: a choice-based conjoint analysis with manipulated photographs

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about the relationships between micro-scale environmental factors and older adults' walking for transport is limited and inconsistent. This is probably due to methodological limitations, such as absence of an accurate neighborhood definition, lack of environmental heterogeneity, environmental co-variation, and recall bias. Furthermore, most previous studies are observational in nature. We aimed to address these limitations by investigating the effects of manipulating photographs on micro-scale environmental factors on the appeal of a street for older adults' transportation walking. Secondly, we used latent class analysis to examine whether subgroups could be identified that have different environmental preferences for transportation walking. Thirdly, we investigated whether these subgroups differed in socio-demographic, functional and psychosocial characteristics, current level of walking and environmental perceptions of their own street.

METHODS: Data were collected among 1131 Flemish older adults through an online (n = 940) or an interview version of the questionnaire (n = 191). This questionnaire included a choice-based conjoint exercise with manipulated photographs of a street. These manipulated photographs originated from one panoramic photograph of an existing street that was manipulated on nine environmental attributes. Participants chose which of two presented streets they would prefer to walk for transport.

RESULTS: In the total sample, sidewalk evenness had by far the greatest appeal for transportation walking. The other environmental attributes were less important. Four subgroups that differed in their environmental preferences for transportation walking were identified. In the two largest subgroups (representing 86% of the sample) sidewalk evenness was the most important environmental attribute. In the two smaller subgroups (each comprising 7% of the sample), traffic volume and speed limit were the most important environmental attributes for one, and the presence of vegetation and a bench were the most important environmental attributes for the other. This latter subgroup included a higher percentage of service flat residents than the other subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the provision of even sidewalks should be considered a priority when developing environmental interventions aiming to stimulate older adults' transportation walking. Natural experiments are needed to confirm whether our findings can be translated to real environments and actual transportation walking behavior.

Do enhancements to the urban built environment improve physical activity levels among socially disadvantaged populations?

Background: There is growing recognition that the urban built environment influences physical activity at the population level, although the effects on disadvantaged groups are less well understood. Using the examples of open/green space and street connectivity, this paper explores whether enhancements to the built environment have potential for addressing physical activity-related health inequalities among Mori, Pacific and low income communities in New Zealand.

Method: A high-level review of the international literature relating open space and street connectivity to physical activity and/or related health outcomes at a population level was completed. Consideration was given to whether these features of the built environment have a disproportionate effect on disadvantaged populations.

Results: Findings from international studies suggest that open space and street connectivity have a beneficial effect on physical activity. Enhancing the built environment may be particularly advantageous for improving physical activity levels among disadvantaged populations.

Conclusion: It is likely that open space and street connectivity have a positive effect on physical activity behaviour; however due to the cross-sectional nature of existing research and the paucity of research among disadvantaged populations definitive conclusions about the effect in these populations cannot be made. Further research is required (e.g. natural experiments or quasi experimental research designs) to determine the effect of changing the environment on physical activity and obesity.

Tests of ecogeographical relationships in a non-native species: what rules avian morphology?

The capacity of non-native species to undergo rapid adaptive change provides opportunities to research contemporary evolution through natural experiments. This capacity is particularly true when considering ecogeographical rules, to which non-native species have been shown to conform within relatively short periods of time. Ecogeographical rules explain predictable spatial patterns of morphology, physiology, life history and behaviour. We tested whether Australian populations of non-native starling, Sturnus vulgaris, introduced to the country approximately 150 years ago, exhibited predicted environmental clines in body size, appendage size and heart size (Bergmann's, Allen's and Hesse's rules, respectively). Adult starlings (n = 411) were collected from 28 localities from across eastern Australia from 2011 to 2012. Linear models were constructed to examine the relationships between morphology and local environment. Patterns of variation in body mass and bill surface area were consistent with Bergmann's and Allen's rules, respectively (small body size and larger bill size in warmer climates), with maximum summer temperature being a strongly weighted predictor of both variables. In the only intraspecific test of Hesse's rule in birds to date, we found no evidence to support the idea that relative heart size will be larger in individuals which live in colder climates. Our study does provide evidence that maximum temperature is a strong driver of morphological adaptation for starlings in Australia. The changes in morphology presented here demonstrate the potential for avian species to make rapid adaptive changes in relation to a changing climate to ameliorate the effects of heat stress.

Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: evidence from Latin America

We utilize the default by Argentina in 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, as natural experiments, to monitor the complex interactions between sovereign bonds when subjected to endogenous and exogenous shocks. By forming pairs of Latin American sovereign bonds, bundled into similar maturity class, the analysis highlights the complex nature of risk shifting, and the temporal nature of the volatility transmission and sharing mechanisms in the lead up to, and after, a crisis period. The results show that shorter maturity groups and longer maturity groups behave in fundamentally different ways in terms of volatility transmission, while one or two leading countries act as regional benchmarks. The dynamics are consistent with temporal but segmented investor preferences, with the arrival of crisis contributing to a breakdown in the previous relationships. In addition, there is additional economic benefit from utilizing knowledge of the volatility structure underlying the historic transmission channels to improve the portfolio outcomes of market participants.

The spatial pattern of natural selection when selection depends upon experience

Apostatic (frequency‐ or density‐dependent) selection, aposematic signals, and mate choice behavior generally require that the mean prey or potential mate density m value be high enough (above a threshold T) to result in sufficient encounter rates for the searcher to learn or retain the association between conspicuous signals and prey unprofitability, to forage apostatically, or to choose among mates. This assumes that all searchers experience , which implicitly assumes an even dispersion of targets among searcher territories. Uneven dispersion generates new phenomena. If , then only territories with local density x values that are greater than T favor experience‐based behavior, leading to spatially variable frequency‐ or density‐dependent selection intensity. As aggregation increases, the increase in percentage of targets in favorable territories ( ) is greater than the increase in the percentage of territories that are favorable. The relationship is reversed when . In both cases, because as few as 10% of the territories can contain 80% of the targets, only a few territory holders may account for most of the selection on most of the target population; accidents of experience in only a few searchers can have unexpectedly large effects on the target population. This also provides an explanation for high searcher behavior variation (personalities) : individuals from favorable territories will behave differently in behavioral experiments than those from unfavorable territories, at least with respect to similar kinds of targets. These effects will generate spatial heterogeneity in natural and sexual selection in what are otherwise uniform environments.

Behavior of magnesium in Hank's solution aimed to trabecular pattern of natural bone

An ideal artificial bone is expected to grow together with other natural bones with aid of osteoblast cells and to fade out into other natural bones at the same rate of restructuring natural bone. Magnesium is thought to be one of candidate materials, since it has a potential to enhance natural bone growth and to homogenize the implanted artificial bodies with natural bone. In the present study, we are concerned with the formation of trabecular pattern in the natural bone to consider how to reconstruct this pattan in the artificial bone made from magnesium. For that purpose, a series of experiments were perfonned to observe the chemical behavior of dipped magnesium plate and cellular magnesium in Hank's solution. A magnesium specimen is annealed at 773 - 803 K for various periods in an atmosphere to homogenize its microstructure. Mass change of magnesium is estimated by immersing it in Hank's solution. It is well known that magnesium is easily corroded by chlorine ion. Both x-ray diffraction and energy dispersed x-ray analyses were carried out in order to identify a reaction product and its chemical composition. Mass of a magnesium specimen, which was annealed at 803 K for 32.4 ks or 14.4 ks, increases after immersing it into Hank's solution for 4.5 18 Ms (1255 h). Furthermore, the cellular magnesium, which was annealed at 803 K for 1.8 ks, fanned a reacted layer with around 80 μ in thickness and it contained Mg, Ca, P, and a little bit of CI.

Bio-renewable plastics from natural resources

The data is a collection of experiments and characterization of samples of bio-renewable plastics.

Mechanisms for climate-induced mortality of fish populations in whole-lake experiments

The effects of climate change on plant and animal populations are widespread and documented for many species in many areas of the world. However, projections of climate impacts will require a better mechanistic understanding of ecological and behavioral responses to climate change and climate variation. For vertebrate animals, there is an absence of whole-system manipulative experiments that express natural variation in predator and prey behaviors. Here we investigate the effect of elevated water temperature on the physiology, behavior, growth, and survival of fish populations in a multiple whole-lake experiment, by using 17 lake-years of data collected over 2 years with differing average temperatures. We found that elevated temperatures in excess of the optimum reduced the scope for growth through reduced maximum consumption and increased metabolism in young rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss. Increased metabolism at high temperatures resulted in increased feeding activity (consumption) by individuals to compensate and maintain growth rates similar to that observed at cooler (optimum) temperatures. However, greater feeding activity rates resulted in greater vulnerability to predators that reduced survival to only half that of the cooler year. Our work therefore identifies temperature-dependent physiology and compensatory feeding behavior as proximate mechanisms for substantial climate-induced mortality in fish populations at the scale of entire populations and waterbodies.

Synergistic effect of multi walled carbon nanotubes and reduced graphene oxides in natural rubber for sensing application

Utilizing the electrical properties of polymer nanocomposites is an important strategy to develop high performance solvent sensors. Here we report the synergistic effect of multi walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and reduced graphene oxide (RGO) in regulating the sensitivity of the naturally occurring elastomer, natural rubber (NR). Composites were fabricated by dispersing CNTs alone and together with exfoliated RGO sheets (thermally reduced at temperatures of 200 and 600 °C) in NR by a solution blending method. RGO exfoliation and the uniform distribution of fillers in the composites were studied by atomic force microscopy, Fourier transformation infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. The solvent sensitivity of the composite samples was noted from the sudden variation in electrical conductivity which was due to the breakdown of the filler networks during swelling in different solvents. It was found that the synergy between CNTs and RGO exfoliated at 200 °C imparts maximum sensitivity to NR in recognizing the usually used aromatic laboratory solvents. Mechanical and dynamic mechanical studies reveal efficient filler reinforcement, depending strongly on the nature of filler-elastomer interactions and supports the sensing mechanism. Such interactions were quantitatively determined using the Maier and Göritz model from Payne effect experiments. It is concluded that the polarity induced by RGO addition reduces the interactions between CNTs and ultimately results in the solvent sensitivity. © 2013 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Kinetic model for thermal dehydrochlorination of chlorinated natural rubber with different chlorine content

A novel model for calculating dehydrochlorination kinetics at a lower temperature of chlorinated natural rubber (CNR) is presented. It has been observed that dehydrochlorination is complex and involves three different stages. A model that accounts for dehydrochlorination at lower temperature is proposed. The kinetic parameters are obtained from dehydrochlorination experiments at 60-90 °C. The results of the kinetic calculation show that the apparent activation energy decreases with an increment of chlorine content. Higher chlorine content CNR makes it easier to remove hydrochloric acid when heated, but its dehydrochlorination rate affected by temperature is significantly less than that of the sample with a lower chlorine content. The thermogravimetric/derivative thermogravimetry results show that the beginning temperature of thermo-oxidative degradation rises with the increment of chlorine content. During the heating process, the higher chlorine content CNR is more stable than the lower one. The results suggest the storage conditions and basis for selection of appropriate temperature for the preparation of CNR from latex.