Using national input-output data for embodied energy analysis of individual residential buildings

Embodied energy (EE) analysis has become an important area of energy research, in attempting to trace the direct and indirect energy requirements of products and services throughout their supply chain. Typically, input-output (I-O) models have been used to calculate EE because they are considered to be comprehensive in their analysis. However, a major deficiency of using I-O models is that they have inherent errors and therefore cannot be reliably applied to individual cases. Thus, there is a need for the ability to disaggregate an I-O model into its most important 'energy paths', for the purpose of integrating case-specific data. This paper presents a new hybrid method for conducting EE analyses for individual buildings, which retains the completeness of the I-O model. This new method is demonstrated by application to an Australian residential building. Only 52% of the energy paths derived from the I-O model were substituted using case-specific data. This indicates that previous system boundaries for EE studies of individual residential buildings are less than optimal. It is envisaged that the proposed method will provide construction professionals with more accurate and reliable data for conducting life cycle energy analysis of buildings. Furthermore, by analysing the unmodified energy paths, further data collection can be prioritized effectively.

Why invest in a national public health program for stroke? An example using Australian data to estimate the potential benefits and cost implications

Objectives: Stroke is the world’s second leading cause of death in people aged over 60 years. Approximately 50,000 strokes occur annually in Australia with numbers predicted to increase by about one third over 10-years. Our objectives were to assess the economic implications of a public health program for stroke by: (1) predicting what potential health-gains and cost-offsets could be achieved; and (2) determining the net level of annual investment that would offer value-for-money.

Methods: Lifetime costs and outcomes were calculated for additional cases that would benefit if ‘current practice’ was feasibly improved, estimated for one indicative year using: (i) local epidemiological data, coverage rates and costs; and (ii) pooled effect sizes from systematic reviews.

Interventions: blood pressure lowering; warfarin for atrial fibrillation; increased access to stroke units; intravenous thrombolysis and aspirin for ischemic events; and carotid endarterectomy. Value-for-money threshold: AUD$30,000/DALY recovered.

Results: Improved, prevention and management could prevent about 27,000 (38%) strokes in 2015. In present terms (2004), about 85,000 DALYs and AUD$1.06 billion in lifetime cost-offsets could be recovered. The net level of annual warranted investment was AUD$3.63 billion.

Conclusions: Primary prevention, in particular blood pressure lowering, was most effective. A public health program for stroke
is warranted

Internationalisation process for construction design service SMES on multi national projects

The internationalisation process has four key factors including market selection, decision to enter, entry modes and factors affecting entry modes. Small and medium sizes enterprises (SMEs) in the architectural engineering construction design services sector have demonstrated an increasing involvement in international markets. Consequently, activities and processes involved in internationalisation of these SME types present important issues for understanding from entrepreneurial, managerial and research perspectives. A research gap exists, however, through emphasis in past research having been given to large firms, and in particular those within manufacturing. This investigation identified similarities and differences between two construction design service SMEs who have been exporting to various localities including Eastern Europe, Africa, Middle East, UK, Asia and South America for typically more than two decades. Similarities and differences were identified within eight major constructs including: purpose, firm type, market image and design philosophy, entry mode strategy, institutional arrangement, factors affecting mode of entry, marketing selection and firm strategy in relation to project selection. The primary reasons for firms in both cases working in international markets were associated with the firms' motivations related to growth and enhancement of financial viability. Both firms were categorized as client following. This paper discusses the various internationalization processes and explains the reasons intrinsic to each case study. The two firms have been highly successful in the internationalization processes on multi-national projects die to a reflexive capability philosophy which incorporates continuous analysis and alignment between firm and locality characteristic to transform traditional barriers into enablers of success.

Professionals' attributions and referral decisions in cases of domestic violence

This thesis is the first national study of workers who have contact with victims and perpetrators of domestic violence. It highlights that the victim and perpetrator's gender, as well as the relevant professional's agency type and experience, all influenced their attitudes to, and service delivery decisions with, domestic violence-related clients. The portfolio utilises four case studies to examine the way that two Victorian sex offender programs attempt to balance risk-need and good lives principles in the assessment and treatment of sex offenders.

A preliminary analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program – demonstrating the potential value of comprehensive real world data

Background The complexity and cost of treating cancer patients is escalating rapidly and increasingly difficult decisions are being made regarding which interventions provide value for money. BioGrid Australia supports collection and analysis of comprehensive treatment and outcome data across multiple sites. Here we use preliminary data regarding the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) and stage-specific treatment costs for colorectal cancer (CRC) to demonstrate the potential value of real world data for cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA).

Methods Data regarding the impact of NBCSP on stage at diagnosis was combined with stage-specific CRC treatment costs and existing literature. An incremental CEA was undertaken from a government healthcare perspective, comparing NBCSP to no-screening. The 2008 invited population (n=681,915) was modelled in both scenarios. Effectiveness was expressed as CRC-related life years saved (LYS). Costs and benefits were discounted at 3% per annum.

Results Over the lifetime and relative to no-screening, NBCSP was predicted to save 1,265 life-years, prevent 225 CRC cases and cost an additional $48.3 million, equivalent to a cost-effectiveness ratio of $38,217 per LYS. A scenario analysis assuming full participation improved this to $23,395.

Conclusions This preliminary CEA based largely on contemporary real world data suggests population-based FOBT screening for CRC is attractive. Planned ongoing data collection will enable repeated analyses over time, using the same methodology in the same patient populations, permitting an accurate analysis of the impact of new therapies and changing practice. Similar CEA using real world data related to other disease types and interventions appears desirable.

Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D, calcium intake and risk of type 2 diabetes after 5 years : results from a national, population-based prospective study (the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study)

OBJECTIVE To examine whether serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) and dietary calcium predict incident type 2 diabetes and insulin sensitivity.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 6,537 of the 11,247 adults evaluated in 1999–2000 in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study, returned for oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in 2004–2005. We studied those without diabetes who had complete data at baseline (n = 5,200; mean age 51 years; 55% were women; 92% were Europids). Serum 25OHD and energy-adjusted calcium intake (food frequency questionnaire) were assessed at baseline. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between serum 25OHD and dietary calcium on 5-year incidence of diabetes (diagnosed by OGTT) and insulin sensitivity (homeostasis model assessment of insulin sensitivity [HOMA-S]), adjusted for multiple potential confounders, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG).

RESULTS During the 5-year follow-up, 199 incident cases of diabetes were diagnosed. Those who developed diabetes had lower serum 25OHD (mean 58 vs. 65 nmol/L; P < 0.001) and calcium intake (mean 881 vs. 923 mg/day; P = 0.03) compared with those who remained free of diabetes. Each 25 nmol/L increment in serum 25OHD was associated with a 24% reduced risk of diabetes (odds ratio 0.76 [95% CI 0.63–0.92]) after adjusting for age, waist circumference, ethnicity, season, latitude, smoking, physical activity, family history of diabetes, dietary magnesium, hypertension, serum triglycerides, and FPG. Dietary calcium intake was not associated with reduced diabetes risk. Only serum 25OHD was positively and independently associated with HOMA-S at 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS Higher serum 25OHD levels, but not higher dietary calcium, were associated with a significantly reduced risk of diabetes in Australian adult men and women.

A cross-national study of teaching and learning in primary science classrooms

This presentation reports on the methodological issues confronting an Australian-German-Taiwanese team planning comparative video ethnographic research into primary science classrooms. The issues that will be canvassed include: the benefits of cross-cultural comparisons in providing perspectives on local practice, the theoretical justifications of such comparisons, selection of cases for comparison and possibilities for claiming cultural representativeness, the planning of appropriate data sets, the different comparative stories offered by different analytical frames, practical issues of communication and data sharing, and issues of entanglement of language and culture in the analysis.

Low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D is associated with increased risk of the development of the metabolic syndrome at five years : results from a national, population-based prospective study (the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study : AusDiab)

Context: Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration has been inversely associated with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS), but the relationship between 25(OH)D and incident MetS remains unclear.

Objective: We evaluated the prospective association between 25(OH)D, MetS, and its components in a large population-based cohort of adults aged 25 yr or older.

Design: We used baseline (1999–2000) and 5-yr follow-up data of the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab).

Participants: Of the 11,247 adults evaluated at baseline, 6,537 returned for follow-up. We studied those without MetS at baseline and with complete data (n = 4164; mean age 50 yr; 58% women; 92% Europids).

Outcome Measures: We report the associations between baseline 25(OH)D and 5-yr MetS incidence and its components, adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, season, latitude, smoking, family history of type 2 diabetes, physical activity, education, kidney function, waist circumference (WC), and baseline MetS components.

Results: A total of 528 incident cases (12.7%) of MetS developed over 5 yr. Compared with those in the highest quintile of 25(OH)D (≥34 ng/ml), MetS risk was significantly higher in people with 25(OH)D in the first (<18 ng/ml) and second (18–23 ng/ml) quintiles; odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.41 (1.02–1.95) and 1.74 (1.28–2.37), respectively. Serum 25(OH)D was inversely associated with 5-yr WC (P < 0.001), triglycerides (P < 0.01), fasting glucose (P < 0.01), and homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (P < 0.001) but not with 2-h plasma glucose (P = 0.29), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P = 0.70), or blood pressure (P = 0.46).

Conclusions: In Australian adults, lower 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with increased MetS risk and higher WC, serum triglyceride, fasting glucose, and insulin resistance at 5 yr. Vitamin D supplementation studies are required to establish whether the link between vitamin D deficiency and MetS is causal.

The evolution of national level historic district registration and conservation in China: the Beijing Yandaixiejie and Beijing Guozijian districts in Beijing, China

From the 1980s, Chinese experts from some mainland universities, such as Tongji Universtiy in Shanghai and Tsinghua University in Beijing, commenced research into heritage management and historic architectural conservation in China. With the announcement of the First and Second Lists of 10 Chinese Historic and Cultural Districts in 2009 and 2010, the conservation of historic districts was generally received and elevated in agreements from state-level government to local level governments. This paper considers literature about international and Chinese regulations and presents the evolution of historic district conservation in China. The paper explores the effective and ineffective results of the “Selection Contest of Chinese Top 10 Historic and Cultural Districts” in two cases selected from the First and Second Lists of 10 Chinese Historical and Cultural Districts during upon recent research and investigations. In each example, the paper provides a detailed examination of public awareness and their evaluation of conservation effectiveness through questionnaires.

Sentencing in child sexual assault cases: factors influencing judicial decision-making

To date, there has been limited examination of variables that influence sentencing in child sexual abuse cases. This study examines the extent to which offence characteristics (such as the number of offences, number and age of victims), the behaviour and perceived credibility of the victim impact upon both sentence length and the setting of earliest parole dates. Analyses conducted using data from 66 adjudicated cases of child sexual assault from the County Court of Victoria, Australia revealed that longer sentences were handed down to offenders who had perpetrated multiple offences, or who had committed offences against younger children. Lower levels of victim credibility were associated with shorter sentences and earlier parole dates for offenders, which were also associated with the presence of more harmful behavioural indicators of abuse. The findings are discussed regarding the importance of presenting evidence about the behaviour of victims following sexual abuse in criminal trials. © 2013 Copyright National Organisation for the Treatment of Abusers.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Low control and high demands at work as risk factors for suicide: An Australian national population-level case-control study

OBJECTIVES: Previous research suggests that psychosocial job stressors may be plausible risk factors for suicide. This study assessed the relationship between psychosocial job stressors and suicide mortality across the Australian population. METHODS: We developed a job exposure matrix to objectively measure job stressors across the working population. Suicide data came from a nationwide coronial register. Living controls were selected from a nationally representative cohort study. Incidence density sampling was used to ensure that controls were sampled at the time of death of each case. The period of observation for both cases and controls was 2001 to 2012. We used multilevel logistic regression to assess the odds of suicide in relation to 2 psychosocial job stressors (job control and job demands), after matching for age, sex, and year of death/survey and adjusting for socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Across 9,010 cases and 14,007 matched controls, our results suggest that low job control (odds ratio [OR], 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-1.44; p < .001) and high job demands (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.26-1.46; p < .001) were associated with increased odds of male suicide after adjusting for socioeconomic status. High demands were associated with lower odds of female suicide (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.72-0.92; p = .002). CONCLUSIONS: It seems that adverse experiences at work are a risk factor for male suicide while not being associated with an elevated risk among females. Future studies on job stressors and suicide are needed, both to further understand the biobehavioral mechanisms explaining the link between job stress and suicide, and to inform targeted prevention initiatives.

Identification and outcomes of clinical phenotypes in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neuron disease: Australian National Motor Neuron Disease observational cohort

OBJECTIVE: To capture the clinical patterns, timing of key milestones and survival of patients presenting with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis/motor neuron disease (ALS/MND) within Australia.

METHODS: Data were prospectively collected and were timed to normal clinical assessments. An initial registration clinical report form (CRF) and subsequent ongoing assessment CRFs were submitted with a completion CRF at the time of death.

DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS: 1834 patients with a diagnosis of ALS/MND were registered and followed in ALS/MND clinics between 2005 and 2015.

RESULTS: 5 major clinical phenotypes were determined and included ALS bulbar onset, ALS cervical onset and ALS lumbar onset, flail arm and leg and primary lateral sclerosis (PLS). Of the 1834 registered patients, 1677 (90%) could be allocated a clinical phenotype. ALS bulbar onset had a significantly lower length of survival when compared with all other clinical phenotypes (p<0.004). There were delays in the median time to diagnosis of up to 12 months for the ALS phenotypes, 18 months for the flail limb phenotypes and 19 months for PLS. Riluzole treatment was started in 78-85% of cases. The median delays in initiating riluzole therapy, from symptom onset, varied from 10 to 12 months in the ALS phenotypes and 15-18 months in the flail limb phenotypes. Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy was implemented in 8-36% of ALS phenotypes and 2-9% of the flail phenotypes. Non-invasive ventilation was started in 16-22% of ALS phenotypes and 21-29% of flail phenotypes.

CONCLUSIONS: The establishment of a cohort registry for ALS/MND is able to determine clinical phenotypes, survival and monitor time to key milestones in disease progression. It is intended to expand the cohort to a more population-based registry using opt-out methodology and facilitate data linkage to other national registries.