Mortality rates, prevalence of malnutrition, and prevalence of lost pregnancies among the drought-ravaged population of Tete province Mozambique

Background: Tete Province, Mozambique has experienced chronic food insecurity and a dramatic fall in livestock numbers due to the cyclic problems characterized by the floods in 2000 and severe droughts in 2002 and 2003. The Province has been a beneficiary of emergency relief programs, which have assisted >22% of the population. However, these programs were not based on sound epidemiological data, and they have not established baseline data against which to assess the impact of the programs. Objective: The objective of this study was to document mortality rates, causes of death, the prevalence of malnutrition, and the prevalence of lost pregnancies after 2.5 years of humanitarian response to the crisis. Methods: A two-stage, 30-cluster household survey was conducted in the Cahora Bassa and Changara districts from 22 October to 08 November 2004. A total of 838 households were surveyed, with a population size of 4,688 people. Results: Anthropometric data were collected among children 6-59 months of age. In addition, crude mortality rates (CMRs), under five mortality rates (U5MRs), causes of deaths, and prevalence of lost pregnancies were determined among the sample population. The prevalence of malnutrition was 8.0% (95% confidence interval (CI)=6.2-9.8%) for acute malnutrition, 26.9% (95% CI=24.0-29.9%) for being underweight, and 37.0% (95% CI=33.8-40.2%) for chronic malnutrition. Boys were more likely to be underweight than were girls (odds ratio (OR)=1.34; 95% CI=1.00, 1.82; p<0.05) after controlling for age, household size, and food aid beneficiary status. Similarly, children 30-59 months of age were significantly less likely to suffer from acute malnutrition (OR=0.45; 95% CI=0.26, 0.79; p<0.01) and less likely to be underweight (OR=0.37; 95% CI=0.27, 0.51; p<0.01) than children 6-29 months of age, after adjusting for the other, aforementioned factors. The proportion of lost pregnancies was estimated at 7.7% (95% CI=4.5-11.0%). A total of 215 deaths were reported during the year preceding the survey. Thirty-nine (18.1%) children <5 years of age died. The CMR was 1.23/10 000/day (95% CI=1.08-1.38), and an U5MR was 1.03/10 000/day (95% CI=0.71-1.35). Diarrheal diseases, malaria, tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) accounted for more than two-thirds of all deaths. Conclusions: The observed CMR in Tete Province, Mozambique is three times higher than the baseline rate for sub-Saharan Africa and 1.4 times higher than the CMR cut-off point used to define excess mortality in emergencies. The current humanitarian response in Tete Province would benefit from an improved alignment of food aid programming in conjunction with diarrheal disease control, HIV/AIDS, and malaria prevention and treatment programs. The impact of the food programs would be improved if mutually acceptable food aid programme objectives, verifiable indicators relevant to each objective, and beneficiary targets and selection criteria are developed. Periodic re-assessments and evaluations of the impact of the program and evidenced-based decision-making urgently are needed to avert a chronic dependency on food aid.

Coronary heart disease trends in England and Wales from 1984 to 2004 : concealed levelling of mortality rates among young adults

Background: Trends in cardiovascular risk factors among UK adults present a complex picture. Ominous increases in obesity and diabetes among young adults raise concerns about subsequent coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in this group.

Objective: To examine recent trends in age-specific mortality rates from CHD, particularly those among younger adults.

Methods and results: Mortality data from 1984 to 2004 were used to calculate age-specific mortality rates for British adults aged 35+ years, and joinpoint regression was used to assess changes in trends. Overall, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased by 54.7% in men and by 48.3% in women. However, among men aged 35–44 years, CHD mortality rates in 2002 increased for the first time in over two decades. Furthermore, the recent declines in CHD mortality rates seem to be slowing in both men and women aged 45–54. Among older adults, however, mortality rates continued to decrease steadily throughout the period.

Conclusions: The flattening mortality rates for CHD among younger adults may represent a sentinel event. Deteriorations in medical management of CHD appear implausible. Thus, unfavourable trends in risk factors for CHD, specifically obesity and diabetes, provide the most likely explanation for the observed trends.

An index of unhealthy lifestyle is associated with coronary heart disease mortality rates for small areas in England after adjustment for deprivation

Indices of socio-economic deprivation are often used as a proxy for differences in the health behaviours of populations within small areas, but these indices are a measure of the economic environment rather than the health environment. Sets of synthetic estimates of the ward-level prevalence of low fruit and vegetable consumption, obesity, raised blood pressure, raised cholesterol and smoking were combined to develop an index of unhealthy lifestyle. Multi-level regression models showed that this index described about 50% of the large-scale geographic variation in CHD mortality rates in England, and substantially adds to the ability of an index of deprivation to explain geographic variations in CHD mortality rates.

Contribution of climate and air pollution to variation in coronary heart disease mortality rates in England

There are substantial geographic variations in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in England that may in part be due to differences in climate and air pollution. An ecological cross-sectional multi-level analysis of male and female CHD mortality rates in all wards in England (1999–2004) was conducted to estimate the relative strength of the association between CHD mortality rates and three aspects of the physical environment - temperature, hours of sunshine and air quality. Models were adjusted for deprivation, an index measuring the healthiness of the lifestyle of populations, and urbanicity. In the fully adjusted model, air quality was not significantly associated with CHD mortality rates, but temperature and sunshine were both significantly negatively associated (p<0.05), suggesting that CHD mortality rates were higher in areas with lower average temperature and hours of sunshine. After adjustment for the unhealthy lifestyle of populations and deprivation, the climate variables explained at least 15% of large scale variation in CHD mortality rates. The results suggest that the climate has a small but significant independent association with CHD mortality rates in England.

Age-specific trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in Australia between 1980 and 2005

Aim: Recent analyses suggest the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates is slowing in younger age groups in countries such as the UK and US. We aimed to assess recent mortality rate trends in all circulatory disease and its subtypes in Australia.

Methods: Annual all circulatory, CHD, and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates between 1980 and 2005 for Australia were analysed. Data were stratified by sex and ten-year age group (age 35 to 85+). The annual rate of change and significant changes in trends were identified using joinpoint Poisson regression.

Results: Age standardised all circulatory disease mortality rates continue to decline in Australia, falling from 441 per 100,000 in 1980 to 145 per 100,000 in 2005 for males and from 264 per 100,000 to 96 per 100,000 for females. The rate of decline from both CHD and cerebrovascular disease appears to be stable or accelerating for individuals aged 55 years and over. However, the decline in young men and women aged 35-54 years is slowing for CHD and cerebrovascular disease mortality alike (except cerebrovascular disease mortality in males aged 35-44). For females aged 35-44 and 45-54 there has been no change in the cerebrovascular mortality rate since 1993 and 1999, respectively.

Conclusions: In Australia, whilst in older adults the decline in cardiovascular mortality rates is generally accelerating, in younger adults it appears to be slowing. It will be important to identify the causes of these trends.

Age-specific trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in the Netherlands between 1980 and 2009

Recent analyses suggest the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates is slowing in younger age groups in countries such as the US and the UK. This work aimed to analyse recent trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in the Netherlands. Analysis was of annual all circulatory, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates between 1980 and 2009 for the Netherlands. Data were stratified by sex and 10-year age group (age 35–85+). The annual rate of change and significant changes in the trend were identified using joinpoint Poisson regression. For almost all age and sex groups examined the rate of IHD and cerebrovascular disease mortality in the Netherlands has more than halved between 1980 and 2009. The decline in mortality from both IHD and cerebrovascular disease is continuing for all ages and sex groups, with anacceleration in the decline apparent from the late 1990s/early 2000s. The decline in age-specific all circulatory, coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates continues for all age and sex groups in the Netherlands.

Migration and Pacific mortality: estimating migration effects on Pacific mortality rates using Bayesian models.

Pacific people living in New Zealand have higher mortality rates than New Zealand residents of European/Other ethnicity. The aim of this paper is to see whether Pacific mortality rates vary by natality and duration of residence. We used linked census-mortality information for 25- to 74-year-olds in the 2001 census followed for up to three years. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling provided a means of handling sparse data. Posterior mortality rates were directly age-standardized. We found little evidence of mortality differences between the overseas-born and the New Zealand-born for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, we found evidence for lower all-cause (and possibly cancer and CVD) mortality rates for Pacific migrants resident in New Zealand for less than 25 years relative to those resident for more than 25 years. This result may arise from a combination of processes operating over time, including health selection effects from variations in New Zealand's immigration policy, the location of Pacific migrants within the social, political, and cultural environment of the host community, and health impacts of the host culture. We could not determine the relative importance of these processes, but identifying the (modifiable) drivers of the inferred long-term decline in health of the overseas-born Pacific population relative to more-recent Pacific migrants is important to Pacific communities and from a national health and policy perspective.

Perioperative mortality rates in Australian public hospitals : the influence of age, gender and urgency

INTRODUCTION: A decline in surgical deaths has been observed in Australia since the introduction of the Australian and New Zealand Audit of Surgical Mortality (ANZASM). The current study was conducted to determine whether the perioperative mortality rate (POMR) has also declined. METHODS: This study is a retrospective review of the POMR for surgical procedures in Australian public hospitals between July 2009 and June 2013, using data obtained from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Operative procedures contained in the Australian Refined Diagnosis Related Groups were selected and the POMR was modelled using urgency of admission, age and gender as explanatory covariates. RESULTS: The POMR in Australian public hospitals reduced by 15.4 % over the 4-year period. The emergency admissions POMR dropped from 1.40 to 1.12 %, and the elective admissions POMR from 0.09 to 0.08 %. The binary logistic regression model used to predict patient mortality showed emergency admissions to have a higher POMR than elective, being more evident at older ages. For emergency admissions, the difference in POMR between females and males increased with age, from about 55 years onwards, with females being lower. For elective surgeries, the difference between males and females was of little practical importance across ages. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in the POMR in Australia confirms the reduction in surgical deaths reported to ANZASM. Continuing to monitor POMR will be important to ensure the safest surgery in Australia. Further investigations into case-mix will allow better risk adjustment and comparison between regions and time-periods, to facilitate continuous quality improvement.

Aspects of the biology of the abalone Haliotis laevigata and Haliotis scalaris

The abalone Haliotis laevigata Donovan is commercially exploited in southern Australia; Haliotis scalaris Leach is a smaller, noncommercial species. This thesis describes the early life history of both species and other aspects of the fishery biology of H. Iaevigata required for fishery management. Both abalone species recruit onto a crustose coralline substratum variously from spring to winter. After settlement the growth rate of both species Is linear for a number of years (1 .7mm/month for H. Iaevigata and 1.1mm/month for H. scalaris) . Crustose coralline algae are the main food during the first year of life but thereafter the diet switches largely to drift algae and seagrass. Survival of newly-settled cohorts differed between years and between species. Overall, it appeared to be density Independent at low densities but density-dependent at high densities, Recruitment strength (measured at 2-1/2 - 3 years of age) and natural mortality of adults in a closed population was measured over 17 years at West I. There were sequences of strong and weak recruitments, but no relationship with presumed spawning stock size was apparent. Adult natural mortality rates ranged from 0.02 to 0.86 and were strongly density dependent. Stingrays were a major, and octopuses a minor, cause of mortality. The fecundity of H. Iaevigata was investigated at a number of sites and was adequately described by linear regressions of fecundity on total weight. Fecundity ratios and growth rate differed between sites and fecundity appears subject to phenotyplc and genotypic variation. The short and long term movement of H. laevigata was also examined, !n short term studies sexually mature Individuals aggregate during the spawning season but disperse randomly at other times of the year. In the longer term the amount of movement depends on availability of crevice space and size. Movement is also directional and, at one site, was toward that of the approaching swell. A method is described for estimating density of abalone by using a free-range search technique and adjusting for individual variation in power and efficiency of different divers and in differing degrees of habitat heterogeneity. The method is useful for estimating recruitment strength and density of abalone in surveys of abalone stocks.

Integrating acoustic telemetry into mark-recapture models to improve the precision of apparent survival and abundance estimates

Capture-mark-recapture models are useful tools for estimating demographic parameters but often result in low precision when recapture rates are low. Low recapture rates are typical in many study systems including fishing-based studies. Incorporating auxiliary data into the models can improve precision and in some cases enable parameter estimation. Here, we present a novel application of acoustic telemetry for the estimation of apparent survival and abundance within capture-mark-recapture analysis using open population models. Our case study is based on simultaneously collecting longline fishing and acoustic telemetry data for a large mobile apex predator, the broadnose sevengill shark (Notorhynchus cepedianus), at a coastal site in Tasmania, Australia. Cormack-Jolly-Seber models showed that longline data alone had very low recapture rates while acoustic telemetry data for the same time period resulted in at least tenfold higher recapture rates. The apparent survival estimates were similar for the two datasets but the acoustic telemetry data showed much greater precision and enabled apparent survival parameter estimation for one dataset, which was inestimable using fishing data alone. Combined acoustic telemetry and longline data were incorporated into Jolly-Seber models using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Abundance estimates were comparable to those with longline data only; however, the inclusion of acoustic telemetry data increased precision in the estimates. We conclude that acoustic telemetry is a useful tool for incorporating in capture-mark-recapture studies in the marine environment. Future studies should consider the application of acoustic telemetry within this framework when setting up the study design and sampling program.

Yield, growth and mortality rate of the Thai river sprat, Clupeichthys aesarnensis, in Sirinthorn Reservoir, Thailand

The Thai river sprat, Clupeichthys aesarnensis Wongratana, is a clupeid with a short life span, and supports artisanal fisheries in a number of reservoirs in the Mekong Basin. The growth parameters, mortality rates and the status of the Thai river sprat in Sirinthorn Reservoir (28 800 ha), NE Thailand (15°N; 105°E), are presented. The fishery is based on lured lift-nets, operated 7–14 days in the new moon period, September to April each year. It was shown that the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) model was L_t (mm) = 78.43[1 − exp{−0.211[t − (−0.7996)]}] and its growth conformed to an isometric pattern. Natural mortality rate (month−¹) was 0.13 month−¹. Total mortality rates ranged from 0.69 to 1.53 month−¹ depending on the weather and the fishing season. Recruitment was continuous throughout the year but peaked in June and July. The yield per recruit model indicated that the exploitation rate of this fishery is probably too high.

Behavioural trade-offs between growth and mortality explain evolution of submaximal growth rates

1. The importance of body size and growth rate in ecological interactions is widely recognized, and both are frequently used as surrogates for fitness. However, if there are significant costs associated with rapid growth rates then its fitness benefits may be questioned.

2. In replicated whole-lake experiments, we show that a domestic strain of rainbow trout (artificially selected for maximum intrinsic growth rate) use productive but risky habitats more than wild trout. Consequently, domestic trout grow faster in all situations, experience greater survival in the absence of predators, but have lower survival in the presence of predators. Therefore, rapid growth rates are selected against due to increased foraging effort (or conversely, lower antipredator behaviour) that increases vulnerability to predators. In other words, there is a behaviourally mediated trade-off between growth and mortality rates.

3. Whereas rapid growth is beneficial in many ecological interactions, our results show the mortality costs of achieving it are large in the presence of predators, which can help explain the absence of an average phenotype with maximized growth rates in nature.

Mortality, malnutrition and the humanitarian response to the food crises in Lesotho

Background: At the height of the food crisis in southern Africa, the Government of Lesotho declared a state of famine and emergency in April 2002 and launched a Famine Relief Appeal for over $137 million. World Vision, in partnership with the World Food Program, became involved in December 2002 providing food aid to affected communities.
Objective: to document mortality rates, causes of death, malnutrition prevalence, and the proportion of lost pregnancies after almost three years of humanitarian response to the food crisis in Lesotho and to propose a way forward.
Design: A two-stage, 30 cluster household survey was undertaken in three districts from the 16th to the 26th of May 2005, with a sample size of 3610 people.
Results: The crude mortality rate (CMR) of 0.8/10,000/day (95%CI: 0.7-0.9). The reported CMR was significantly lower than the CMR emergency threshold (<1/10,000/day). Using 2000 as a pre-drought baseline, 38528 excess deaths occurred between 2000 and 2005. The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 3.2 deaths/10,000/day (95%CI: 2.8-3.6/10,000/day) was 4 times the reported CMR and 1.4 times higher the U5MR emergency threshold for sub-Saharan Africa (2.3/10,000/day). CMR was lower among food aid beneficiaries (0.68; 95%CI: 0.57-0.79) than non-beneficiaries (1.42; 95%CI: 1.13-1.70). This was also true for U5MR (2.94; 95%CI: 2.39-3.50 versus 6.44; 95%CI: 5.21-7.68). The prevalence of wasting increased from 5.4% to 12% while that of stunting declined from 45.4% to 36.2% between 2000 and 2005, but the nutritional status did not vary by beneficiary status.
Conclusion: Despite the alarming U5MR, findings suggest that the food aid program ensured survival mainly among adults. The situation could have been catastrophic in the absence of humanitarian assistance.