Data quality issues in the GIS modelling of air pollution and cardiovascular mortality in Bangalore

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the world's number one cause of mortality. Research in recent years has begun to illustrate a significant association between CVD and air pollution. As most of these studies employed traditional statistics, cross-sectional or meta-analysis methods, a study undertaken by the authors was designed to investigate how a geographical information system (GIS) could be used to develop a more efficient spatio-temporal method of analysis than the currently existing methods mainly based on statistical inference. Using Bangalore, India, as a case study, demographic, environmental and CVD mortality data was sought from the city. However, critical deficiencies in the quality of the environmental data and mortality records were identified and quantified. This paper discusses the shortcomings in the quality of mortality data, together with the development of a framework based on WHO guidelines to improve the defects, henceforth considerably improving data quality.

Food insecurity, malnutrition and mortality in Maewo and Ambae islands, Vanuatu

Context: This paper reports on findings from the ex-post evaluation of the Maewo Capacity Building project in Maewo Island, Vanuatu, which was funded by World Vision Australia.
Objectives: To examine the extent to which the infrastructure and systems left behind by the project contributed to the improvement of household food security and health and nutritional outcomes in Maewo Island, using Ambae Island as a comparator.
Setting: Two-stage cluster survey conducted from 6 to 20 July 2004, which included anthropometric measures and 4.5-year retrospective mortality data collection.
Participants: A total of 406 households in Maewo comprising 1623 people and 411 households in Ambae comprising 1799 people.
Main outcome measures: Household food insecurity, crude mortality rate (CMR), under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and malnutrition prevalence among children.
Results: The prevalence of food insecurity without hunger was estimated at 15.3%
(95% confidence interval (CI): 12.1, 19.2%) in Maewo versus 38.2% (95% CI: 33.6, 43.0%) in Ambae, while food insecurity with hunger in children did not vary by location. After controlling for the child’s age and gender, children in Maewo had higher weight-for-age and height-for-age Z-scores than children of the same age in Ambae. The CMR was lower in Maewo (CMR ¼ 0.47/10 000 per day, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.55) than in Ambae (CMR ¼ 0.59/10 000 per day, 95% CI: 0.51, 0.67) but no difference existed in U5MR. The major causes of death were similar in both locations, with frequently reported causes being malaria, acute respiratory infection and
diarrhoeal disease.
Conclusions: Project initiatives in Maewo Island have reduced the risks of mortality and malnutrition. Using a cross-sectional ‘external control group’ design, this paper demonstrates that it is possible to draw conclusions about project effectiveness where baseline data are incomplete or absent. Shifting from donor-driven evaluations to impact evaluations has greater learning value for the organisation, and greater value when reporting back to the beneficiaries about project impact and transformational
development in their community. Public health nutritionists working in the field are well versed in the collection and interpretation of anthropometric data for evaluation of nutritional interventions such as emergency feeding programmes. These same skills can be used to conduct impact evaluations, even some time after project completion, and elucidate lessons to be learned and shared. These skills can also be applied more widely to projects which impact on the longer-term nutritional status of
communities and their food security.

Coronary heart disease trends in England and Wales from 1984 to 2004 : concealed levelling of mortality rates among young adults

Background: Trends in cardiovascular risk factors among UK adults present a complex picture. Ominous increases in obesity and diabetes among young adults raise concerns about subsequent coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in this group.

Objective: To examine recent trends in age-specific mortality rates from CHD, particularly those among younger adults.

Methods and results: Mortality data from 1984 to 2004 were used to calculate age-specific mortality rates for British adults aged 35+ years, and joinpoint regression was used to assess changes in trends. Overall, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased by 54.7% in men and by 48.3% in women. However, among men aged 35–44 years, CHD mortality rates in 2002 increased for the first time in over two decades. Furthermore, the recent declines in CHD mortality rates seem to be slowing in both men and women aged 45–54. Among older adults, however, mortality rates continued to decrease steadily throughout the period.

Conclusions: The flattening mortality rates for CHD among younger adults may represent a sentinel event. Deteriorations in medical management of CHD appear implausible. Thus, unfavourable trends in risk factors for CHD, specifically obesity and diabetes, provide the most likely explanation for the observed trends.

Mortality disparities between geographic regions : results from a risk percentiles model for coronary heart disease

Background: Planning of disease prevention strategies requires information regarding the distribution of absolute risk in the population to allow targeting of people at high disease risk. It is well known that death rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) are higher in remote areas of Australia compared with major cities. Less well understood is the distribution of the absolute risk of CHD death within the different geographic regions. We present a mathematical model of CHD which projects the lifetime risk of death among individuals in different percentiles of CHD risk. We apply this to model the distribution of CHD risk within different geographic regions.

Methods: Using information from the Framingham1, MRFIT2 and AusDiab3 studies, the Australian population was divided into percentiles of CHD risk within age and gender groups by geographic location. Absolute mortality risk was determined at each percentile using current Australian mortality data. Survival curves were generated for each percentile using these risk estimates. Approximate confidence intervals were derived using bootstrap methods.

Conclusions: The difference in life expectancy at age 25 between those in the lowest decile of CHD risk compared to the highest was 5.8 years (95%CI:4.7,6.7) in major cities compared to 8.5 years (95%CI:7.6,9.7) in remote areas. The difference in risk of premature death (before age 75) was 12% (95%CI:10%,14%) in major cities compared to 33% (95%CI:28%,38%) in remote areas.

Socio-economic inequalities in mortality persist into old age in New Zealand : study of all 65 years plus, 2001-04

A number of studies have explored the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and mortality, although these have mostly been based on the working age population, despite the fact that the burden of mortality is highest in older people. Using Poisson regression on linked New Zealand census and mortality data (2001 to 2004, 1.3 million person years) with a comprehensive set of socioeconomic indicators (education, income, car access, housing tenure, neighourhood deprivation) we examined the association of socioeconomic characteristics and older adult mortality (65+ years) in New Zealand. We found that socioeconomic mortality gradients persist into old age. Substantial relative risks of mortality were observed for all socioeconomic factors, except housing tenure. Most relative risk associations decreased in strength with aging (e.g. most deprived compared to least deprived rate ratio for males reducing from 1.40 (95% CI 1.28 to 1.53) for 65-74 year olds to 1.13 (1.00 to 1.28) for 85+ year olds), except for income and education among women where the rate ratios changed little with increasing age. This suggests individual level measures of SES are more closely related to mortality in older women than older men. Comparing across genders, the only statistically significantly different association between men and women was for a weaker association for women for car access.

Analysing stillbirth data using dynamic self organizing maps

Even with the presence of modern obstetric care, stillbirth rate seems to stay stagnant or has even risen slightly in countries such as England and has become a significant public health concern [1]. In the light of current medical research, maternal risk factors such as diabetes and hypertensive disease were identified as possible risk factors and are taken into consideration in antenatal care. However, medical practitioners and researchers suspect possible relationships between trends in maternal demographics, antenatal care and pregnancy information of current stillbirth in consideration [2]. Although medical data and knowledge is available appropriate computing techniques to analyze the data may lead to identification of high risk groups. In this paper we use an unsupervised clustering technique called Growing Self organizing Map (GSOM) to analyse the stillbirth data and present patterns which can be important to medical researchers.

Does mortality vary between Asian subgroups in New Zealand: an application of hierarchical Bayesian modelling

The aim of this paper was to see whether all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates vary between Asian ethnic subgroups, and whether overseas born Asian subgroup mortality rate ratios varied by nativity and duration of residence. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to allow for sparse data in the analysis of linked census-mortality data for 25-75 year old New Zealanders. We found directly standardised posterior all-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were highest for the Indian ethnic group, significantly so when compared with those of Chinese ethnicity. In contrast, cancer mortality rates were lowest for ethnic Indians. Asian overseas born subgroups have about 70% of the mortality rate of their New Zealand born Asian counterparts, a result that showed little variation by Asian subgroup or cause of death. Within the overseas born population, all-cause mortality rates for migrants living 0-9 years in New Zealand were about 60% of the mortality rate of those living more than 25 years in New Zealand regardless of ethnicity. The corresponding figure for cardiovascular mortality rates was 50%. However, while Chinese cancer mortality rates increased with duration of residence, Indian and Other Asian cancer mortality rates did not. Future research on the mechanisms of worsening of health with increased time spent in the host country is required to improve the understanding of the process, and would assist the policy-makers and health planners.

In the shadow of the volcanoes: the impact of intervention on the nutrition and health status of Rwandan refugee children in Zaire two years from the exodus

Objective: To evaluate the public health and nutritional situation of refugee children in Katale camp, Eastern Zaire, after two years of nutritional and health intervention from 1994 to 1996.
Design: Cross-sectional survey using a two-stage cluster sampling method. Anthropometric data were collected from 28 May 1996 to 4 June 1996. Retrospective review of food basket monitoring data over the preceding six months and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees' weekly mortality data was conducted. Measles immunisation coverage data were surveyed simultaneously, using child health records.
Main outcome measures: Nutritional status measured by weight-for-height index (W/H), measles immunisation status, average daily energy content of the general food ration and crude mortality rate.
Setting: Katale refugee camp, Zaire, June 1996.
Analysis: Weight-for-height index and proportion of immunised children were computed using EPINUT, part of EPINFO computer package.
Results: Malnutrition was found to be most prevalent in children aged six to 29 months old (W/H < -2 Z-score and/or oedema: 6.2%; 95% CI: 3.4%, 10.6%), among whom the malnutrition rate was almost double the overall malnutrition prevalence (W/H < -2 Z-score and/or oedema: 3.5% (95% CI: 1.5%, 7.2%). The general food ration, although conforming to the World Food Program minimum standards of adequacy in terms of variety (being composed of cereals, oil, beans, blended cereal and legume mixes and salt), provided only 6240 kJ on average (95% CI: 5040, 7140 kJ) per person per day, thus meeting only 57% to 84% of the minimum energy requirements for an adult, and falling well below the needs for sub groups with higher nutritional requirements such as children, pregnant and breastfeeding women and the sick. Measles immunisation coverage in children nine to 59 months was 88.6%. The crude mortality rate was found to be 0.3 per 10 000 per day. Refugees received 15 litres of clean water per person per day.
Conclusion: Public health interventions in Katale camp 1994 to 1996 had reduced mortality and morbidity rates dramatically. This was not reflected in the malnutrition rates for children under five years, that remained stable after an initial fall despite two years of nutritional intervention. The factors contributed to this were related to an inadequate general food ration (due to food shortages), lack of ability to supplement the diet, (due to economic restrictions that were imposed in the camp) and inequities in the food distribution process (due to food being siphoned off by camp leaders for military purposes).

Injury profiles of Indigenous and non-Indigenous people in New South Wales

Objectives:
To compare the injury profiles of the Indigenous population in New South Wales with that of the non-Indigenous population.
Design and setting:
Descriptive analysis of NSW Health data obtained from the Health Outcomes Information and Statistical Toolkit (HOIST) database. Hospitalisation data were collected for the period 1 July 1999 to 30 June 2003. Mortality data were collected for the period 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2002.
Main outcome measures:
Hospitalisation and death rates due to injury by age, sex, injury mechanism and Indigenous status. Rate ratios for comparison between Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations.
Results:
Rates of death from injury were higher for all age groups in the Indigenous population, except people older than 65 years. Indigenous people aged 25–44 years were twice as likely to be hospitalised as their non-Indigenous counterparts (rate ratio [RR], 2.09; 95% CI, 2.03–2.14), and five times as likely to be hospitalised for interpersonal violence (RR, 5.19; 95% CI, 4.98–5.40).
Conclusion:
The higher rates of injury-related hospitalisation and death in the Indigenous population in NSW are consistent with data reported for other parts of Australia. Of particular concern is the number of Indigenous deaths and hospitalisations due to interpersonal violence.

Survival of relatives of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background:Families of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) carry a high risk of developing HCC. We determine the number of fatalities in relatives of HCC patients during an 8-year period to understand the risk and cause of HCC in relatives of patients with HCC.
Methods:From 1992 to 1997, 15 410 relatives of HCC patients in three generations were screened prospectively for HCC by ultrasonography, α-fetoprotein, liver biochemistry and viral markers. By using national citizen identification numbers, we searched the total fatalities in relatives of HCC patients between 1992 and 1999 from the national mortality data bank. The results were compared among different viral infection groups.
Results:Of the relatives studied, 37.8% were hepatitis B s antigen (HBsAg) positive (+), 4.3% were anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) (+) and 1.7% were both HBsAg (+) and anti-HCV (+). A total of 399 fatalities, including 139 because of HCC (34.8%), 37 because of liver diseases (9.3%), 88 because of other cancers (22.1%) and 135 because of other diseases (33.8%), were found. Relatives who were HBsAg (+) or anti-HCV (+)showed a lower cumulative survival than did relatives who were negative for both HBsAg and anti-HCV. Relatives with dual infection of hepatitis B and C virus showed the highest mortality due to HCC or terminal liver diseases.
Conclusions:Chronic viral infection rather than a hereditary factor is the main cause of a familial tendency for HCC. Dual infection of hepatitis B and C virus increases the risk of HCC or decompensated liver diseases.
Background:Families of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) carry a high risk of developing HCC. We determine the number of fatalities in relatives of HCC patients during an 8-year period to understand the risk and cause of HCC in relatives of patients with HCC.
Methods:From 1992 to 1997, 15 410 relatives of HCC patients in three generations were screened prospectively for HCC by ultrasonography, α-fetoprotein, liver biochemistry and viral markers. By using national citizen identification numbers, we searched the total fatalities in relatives of HCC patients between 1992 and 1999 from the national mortality data bank. The results were compared among different viral infection groups.
Results:Of the relatives studied, 37.8% were hepatitis B s antigen (HBsAg) positive (+), 4.3% were anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) (+) and 1.7% were both HBsAg (+) and anti-HCV (+). A total of 399 fatalities, including 139 because of HCC (34.8%), 37 because of liver diseases (9.3%), 88 because of other cancers (22.1%) and 135 because of other diseases (33.8%), were found. Relatives who were HBsAg (+) or anti-HCV (+)showed a lower cumulative survival than did relatives who were negative for both HBsAg and anti-HCV. Relatives with dual infection of hepatitis B and C virus showed the highest mortality due to HCC or terminal liver diseases.
Conclusions:Chronic viral infection rather than a hereditary factor is the main cause of a familial tendency for HCC. Dual infection of hepatitis B and C virus increases the risk of HCC or decompensated liver diseases.

The burden of smoking related ill health in the UK

Background: Smoking is one of the biggest avoidable causes of morbidity and mortality in the United Kingdom. This paper quantifies the current health and economic burden of smoking in the UK. It provides comparisons with previous studies of the burden of smoking in the UK and with the costs for other chronic disease risk factors.

Methods: A systematic literature review to identify previous estimates of National Health Service costs attributable to smoking was undertaken. Information from the World Health Organization’s Global Burden of Disease Project and routinely collected mortality data were used to calculate mortality due to smoking in the UK. Population-attributable fractions for smoking-related diseases from the Global Burden of Disease Project were applied to NHS cost data to estimate direct financial costs.

Results: Previous studies estimated that smoking costs the NHS about £1.4 billion to £1.7 billion in 1991 and has been responsible for about 100 000 deaths per annum over the past 10 years. This paper estimates that the number of deaths attributable to smoking in 2005 was 109 164 (19% of all deaths, 27% deaths in men and 11% of deaths in women). Smoking was directly responsible for 12% of disability adjusted life years lost in 2002 (15.4% in men; 8.5% in women) and the direct cost to the NHS was £5.2 billion in 2005–6.

Conclusion: Smoking is still a considerable public health burden in the UK. Accurately establishing the burden in terms of death, disability and financial costs is important for informing national public health policy.

The burden of alcohol-related ill health in the United Kingdom

Background Although moderate alcohol consumption has been shown to confer a protective effect for specific diseases, current societal patterns of alcohol use impose a huge health and economic burden on modern society. This study presents a method for estimating the health and economic burden of alcohol consumption to the UK National Health Service (NHS).

Methods Previous estimates of NHS costs attributable to alcohol consumption were identified by systematic literature review. The mortality and morbidity due to alcohol consumption was calculated using information from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Project and routinely collected mortality data. Direct health-care costs were derived using information on population attributable fractions for conditions related to alcohol consumption and NHS cost data.

Results We estimate that alcohol consumption was responsible for 31 000 deaths in the UK in 2005 and that alcohol consumption cost the UK NHS £3.0 billion in 2005–06. Alcohol consumption was responsible for 10% of all disability adjusted life years in 2002 (male: 15%; female: 4%) in the UK.

Conclusions Alcohol consumption is a considerable public health burden in the UK. The comparison of the health and economic burden of various lifestyle factors is essential in prioritizing and resourcing public health action.

Statphylococcus aureus bacteraemia : a major cause of mortaility in Australia and New Zealand

Objective : To document the types of, and mortality from, Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia in Australia and New Zealand, and determine factors associated with mortality.

Design and setting : Prospective observational study in 27 independent or hospital pathology laboratories in Australia (24) and New Zealand (3), employing a web-based database to prospectively record demographic features, selected risk factors, principal antibiotic treatment and mortality data on all patients with positive blood cultures for S. aureus from June 2007 to May 2008.

Main outcome measure : 30-day all-cause mortality.

Results : 1994 episodes of S. aureus bacteraemia were identified, and complete 30-day follow-up data were available for 1865. Most episodes had their onset in the community (60.8%; 95% CI, 58.7%–63.0%). Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) caused 450 episodes (24.1%; 95% CI, 22.2%–25.9%), and 123 of these (27.3%) had a susceptibility profile consistent with community-associated MRSA. All-cause mortality at 30 days was 20.6% (95% CI, 18.8%–22.5%). On univariate analysis, increased mortality was significantly associated with older age, European ethnicity, MRSA infection, infections not originating from a medical device, sepsis syndrome, pneumonia/empyema, and treatment with a glycopeptide or other non-β-lactam antibiotic. On multivariable analysis, independent predictors of mortality were age, sepsis syndrome, pneumonia/empyema, device-associated infection with a secondary focus, left-sided endocarditis, and treatment with a glycopeptide such as vancomycin, but not MRSA infection.

Conclusions : S. aureus bacteraemia is a common infection in both the community and hospitals in Australia and New Zealand, and is associated with appreciable mortality. Invasive MRSA infection may be more life-threatening, partly because of the inferior efficacy of the standard treatment, vancomycin. National web-based surveillance of S. aureus bacteraemia and its outcomes is not only important but also easily achievable.

What is the optimal level of population alcohol consumption for chronic disease prevention in England? Modelling the impact of changes in average consumption levels

Objective To estimate the impact of achieving alternative average population alcohol consumption levels on chronic disease mortality in England.

Design A macro-simulation model was built to simultaneously estimate the number of deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertensive disease, diabetes, liver cirrhosis, epilepsy and five cancers that would be averted or delayed annually as a result of changes in alcohol consumption among English adults. Counterfactual scenarios assessed the impact on alcohol-related mortalities of changing (1) the median alcohol consumption of drinkers and (2) the percentage of non-drinkers.

Data sources Risk relationships were drawn from published meta-analyses. Age- and sex-specific distributions of alcohol consumption (grams per day) for the English population in 2006 were drawn from the General Household Survey 2006, and age-, sex- and cause-specific mortality data for 2006 were provided by the Office for National Statistics.

Results The optimum median consumption level for drinkers in the model was 5 g/day (about half a unit), which would avert or delay 4579 (2544 to 6590) deaths per year. Approximately equal numbers of deaths from cancers and liver disease would be delayed or averted (∼2800 for each), while there was a small increase in cardiovascular mortality. The model showed no benefit in terms of reduced mortality when the proportion of non-drinkers in the population was increased.

Conclusions Current government recommendations for alcohol consumption are well above the level likely to minimise chronic disease. Public health targets should aim for a reduction in population alcohol consumption in order to reduce chronic disease mortality.