The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials : a modelling study

Background Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown.

Methods We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy.

Results Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men) and 35.6% (women) of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%.

Conclusions These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas. Background: Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. Methods. We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. Results: Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas - accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men) and 35.6% (women) of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men - accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively - and only smoking contributing to the difference in women - accounting for 12.3%. Conclusions: These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas.

The effect of modifiable risk factors on geographic mortality differentials: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: Australian mortality rates are higher in regional and remote areas than in major cities. The degree to which this is driven by variation in modifiable risk factors is unknown. METHODS: We applied a risk prediction equation incorporating smoking, cholesterol and blood pressure to a national, population based survey to project all-causes mortality risk by geographic region. We then modelled life expectancies at different levels of mortality risk by geographic region using a risk percentiles model. Finally we set high values of each risk factor to a target level and modelled the subsequent shift in the population to lower levels of mortality risk and longer life expectancy. RESULTS: Survival is poorer in both Inner Regional and Outer Regional/Remote areas compared to Major Cities for men and women at both high and low levels of predicted mortality risk. For men smoking, high cholesterol and high systolic blood pressure were each associated with the mortality difference between Major Cities and Outer Regional/Remote areas--accounting for 21.4%, 20.3% and 7.7% of the difference respectively. For women smoking and high cholesterol accounted for 29.4% and 24.0% of the difference respectively but high blood pressure did not contribute to the observed mortality differences. The three risk factors taken together accounted for 45.4% (men) and 35.6% (women) of the mortality difference. The contribution of risk factors to the corresponding differences for inner regional areas was smaller, with only high cholesterol and smoking contributing to the difference in men-- accounting for 8.8% and 6.3% respectively-- and only smoking contributing to the difference in women--accounting for 12.3%. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that health intervention programs aimed at smoking, blood pressure and total cholesterol could have a substantial impact on mortality inequities for Outer Regional/Remote areas.

Predicting the risk of physical disability in old age using modifiable mid-life risk factors

We aimed to investigate the relationship between potentially modifiable risk factors in middle age and disability after 13 years using the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS). We further aimed to develop a disability risk algorithm to estimate the risk of future disability for those aged 45-65 years.

Risk factors for violence in psychosis: systematic review and meta-regression analysis of 110 studies

Background

Previous reviews on risk and protective factors for violence in psychosis have produced contrasting findings. There is therefore a need to clarify the direction and strength of association of risk and protective factors for violent outcomes in individuals with psychosis.

Method

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using 6 electronic databases (CINAHL, EBSCO, EMBASE, Global Health, PsycINFO, PUBMED) and Google Scholar. Studies were identified that reported factors associated with violence in adults diagnosed, using DSM or ICD criteria, with schizophrenia and other psychoses. We considered non-English language studies and dissertations. Risk and protective factors were meta-analysed if reported in three or more primary studies. Meta-regression examined sources of heterogeneity. A novel meta-epidemiological approach was used to group similar risk factors into one of 10 domains. Sub-group analyses were then used to investigate whether risk domains differed for studies reporting severe violence (rather than aggression or hostility) and studies based in inpatient (rather than outpatient) settings.

Findings

There were 110 eligible studies reporting on 45,533 individuals, 8,439 (18.5%) of whom were violent. A total of 39,995 (87.8%) were diagnosed with schizophrenia, 209 (0.4%) were diagnosed with bipolar disorder, and 5,329 (11.8%) were diagnosed with other psychoses. Dynamic (or modifiable) risk factors included hostile behaviour, recent drug misuse, non-adherence with psychological therapies (p values<0.001), higher poor impulse control scores, recent substance misuse, recent alcohol misuse (p values<0.01), and non-adherence with medication (p value <0.05). We also examined a number of static factors, the strongest of which were criminal history factors. When restricting outcomes to severe violence, these associations did not change materially. In studies investigating inpatient violence, associations differed in strength but not direction.

Conclusion

Certain dynamic risk factors are strongly associated with increased violence risk in individuals with psychosis and their role in risk assessment and management warrants further examination.

Understanding the role of mediating risk factors and proxy effects in the association between socio-economic status and untreated hypertension

The association between socio-economic status (SES) and untreated hypertension varies according to a country's level of development and racial/ethnic group. We sought to confirm this variation in women from China and the United States (US) as well as to investigate the impact of SES on several mediating risk factors. We also investigate the extent to which SES explains racial/ethnic differences in untreated hypertension in the US. We used cross-sectional data from 1814 non-pregnant women in China (China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), 1997) and 3266 non-pregnant women in the United States (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), 1988–1994) respectively. A variety of statistical modelling techniques was used to predict untreated hypertension as a function of several mediating factors and to simulate the impact of changes in SES. The age-adjusted prevalence of untreated hypertension was significantly higher (p<0.01) for low-income White and Black women compared to Mexican American or Chinese women. Untreated hypertension was not significantly associated with income or education in Mexican Americans or women in China. Obesity and light physical activity had the largest mediating effect on the association between SES and untreated hypertension for all racial/ethnic groups. However, this effect was not as strong as the proxy effect of income and education. SES did not completely explain racial/ethnic differences in hypertension in the US. While SES was more strongly associated with hypertension in Blacks than Whites, Blacks were still 1.97 (95% CI 1.47–2.64) times more likely to have untreated hypertension than Whites after adjusting for SES differences. The association between SES and untreated hypertension varied by country and racial/ethnic group. An important explanation for this variation was the differential effect of SES on mediating risk factors. SES disparities between Whites and Blacks in the US partly explain differences in the prevalence of untreated hypertension between these racial/ethnic groups.

Fall risk factors and the nature of falls in inpatient oncology and palliative care settings

Using a prospective design, this study examined falls risk factors and the nature of patient falls in oncology and palliative care settings. Two hundred and twenty seven patients admitted to the oncology and palliative care units at a private hospital participated in this study. Of these, 34 patients had a fall and 193 patients did not have a fall. Twenty-four nurses who attended to patients who fell were interviewed. Findings revealed that, when compared to patients who did not fall, fallers had a significantly higher mean age; were assessed as more physically dependent using the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scale; were less alert and more confused; were more likely to have responded incorrectly to orientation to person, time and place; were weaker pre-fall in arm muscle strength; and were more fatigued. These factors are worthy of further exploration to determine whether they are more sensitive than the currently used falls risk factors used in oncology and palliative care settings.

Television viewing habits associated with obesity risk factors: a survey of Melbourne schoolchildren.

Objectives: To examine whether children’s television viewing may be a useful indicator of risk of obesity-promoting versus healthy eating behaviours, low-level physical activity (PA) and overweight or obesity among children of primary school entry and exit ages. Design: Cross-sectional study, stratified by area-level socioeconomic status. Participants and setting: 1560 children (613 aged 5–6 years [50% boys], and 947 aged 10–12 years [46% boys]) from 24 primary schools in Melbourne, Australia, randomly selected proportionate to school size between 1 November 2002 and 30 December 2003 . Main outcome measures: Parents’ reports of the time their child spends watching television, their participation in organised physical activities (PA), and their food intake; each child’s measured height and weight and their PA levels as assessed by accelerometry for one week. Results: After adjusting for the age and sex of child, the parents’ level of education, clustering by school, and all other health behaviour variables, children who watched television for > 2 h/day were significantly more likely than children who watched television for ≤ 2 h/day to: to have one or more serves/day of high energy drinks (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.31; 95% CI, 1.61–3.32), and to have one or more serves/day of savoury snacks (AOR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.04–2.17). They were also less likely to have two or more serves/day of fruit (AOR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.46–0.74), or to participate in any organised PA (AOR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.34–0.80). Conclusions: Health practitioners in the primary care setting may find that asking whether a child watches television for more than 2 hours daily can be a useful indicator of a child’s risk of poor diet and low physical activity level.

Pressure injury: an exploration of the relationship between risk factors and interface pressure

Pressure injuries are a serious risk for patients admitted to hospital and are thought to result from a number of forces operating on skin tissue (pressure, shear and friction). Most research on interface pressure (IP) has taken place using healthy volunteers or mannequins. Little is currently known about the relationship between pressure injury risk and IP for hospital patients. This relationship was investigated with a sample of 121 adult hospital patients. Pressure injury risk was evaluated using the Waterlow Risk Assessment Tool (WRAT) and IP was measured at the sacrum using a Tekscan ClinSeatTM IP sensor mat. Other factors considered were body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, reason for hospital admission, comorbidities and admission route to hospital. Patients were classified according to WRAT categories (‘low risk’, ‘at risk’, ‘high risk’, ‘very high risk’) and then remained still on a standard hospital mattress for 10 minutes while IP was measured. Participants in the ‘low risk’ group were significantly younger than all other groups (p<0.001) and there were some group differences in BMI. IP readings were compared between the ‘low risk’ group and all of the participants at greater risk. The ‘low risk’ group had significantly lower IP at the sacrum on a standard hospital mattress than those at greater risk (p=0.002). Those at greater risk tended to have IP readings at the low end of the compromised IP range. This study is significant because it describes a new, clinically relevant methodology and presents findings that challenge clinician assumptions about the relationships between pressure injury risk assessment and IP.

Lupin kernel fibre foods improve bowel function and beneficially modify some putative faecal risk factors for colon cancer in men.

Consumption of some dietary fibres may benefit bowel health; however, the effect of Australian sweet lupin (Lupinus angustifolius) kernel fibre (LKFibre) is unknown. The present study examined the effect of a high-fibre diet containing LKFibre on bowel function and faecal putative risk factors for colon cancer compared to a control diet without LKFibre. Thirty-eight free-living, healthy men consumed an LKFibre and a control diet for 1 month each in a single-blind, randomized, crossover study. Depending on subject energy intake, the LKFibre diet was designed to provide 17–30 g/d fibre (in experimental foods) above that of the control diet. Bowel function self-perception, frequency of defecation, transit time, faecal output, pH and moisture, faecal levels of SCFA and ammonia, and faecal bacterial [ß]-glucuronidase activity were assessed. In comparison to the control diet, the LKFibre diet increased frequency of defecation by 0·13 events/d (P = 0·047), increased faecal output by 21 % (P = 0·020) and increased faecal moisture content by 1·6 % units (P = 0·027), whilst decreasing transit time by 17 % (P = 0·012) and decreasing faecal pH by 0·26 units (P < 0·001). Faecal butyrate concentration was increased by 16 % (P = 0·006), butyrate output was increased by 40 % (P = 0·002) and [ß]-glucuronidase activity was lowered by 1·4 µmol/h per g wet faeces compared to the control diet (P < 0·001). Addition of LKFibre to the diet incorporated into food products improved some markers of healthy bowel function and colon cancer risk in men.

Impact of an empowerment-based parent education program on the reduction of youth suicide risk factors

Purpose: To evaluate the impact of parent education groups on youth suicide risk factors. The potential for informal transmission of intervention impacts within school communities was assessed.

Methods: Parent education groups were offered to volunteers from 14 high schools that were closely matched to 14 comparison schools. The professionally led groups aimed to empower parents to assist one another to improve communication skills and relationships with adolescents. Australian 8th-grade students (aged 14 years) responded to classroom surveys repeated at baseline and after 3 months. Logistic regression was used to test for intervention impacts on adolescent substance use, deliquency, self-harm behavior, and depression. There were no differences between the intervention (n = 305) and comparison (n = 272) samples at baseline on the measures of depression, health behavior, or family relationships.

Results: Students in the intervention schools demonstrated increased maternal care (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.9), reductions in conflict with parents (AOR .5), reduced substance use (AOR .5 to .6), and less delinquency (AOR .2). Parent education group participants were more likely to be sole parents and their children reported higher rates of substance use at baseline. Intervention impacts revealed a dose-response with the largest impacts associated with directly participating parents, but significant impacts were also evident for others in the intervention schools. Where best friend dyads were identified, the best friend’s positive family relationships reduced subsequent substance use among respondents. This and other social contagion processes were posited to explain the transfer of positive impacts beyond the minority of directly participating families.

Conclusions: A whole-school parent education intervention demonstrated promising impacts on a range of risk behaviors and protective factors relevant to youth self-harm and suicide.

Randomised controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of behavioural interventions to modify cardiovascular risk factors in men and women with imparied glucose tolerance: outcomes at 6 months

Aims: To evaluate the efficacy of interventions to promote a healthy diet and physical activity in people with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Methods: A randomised controlled trial in Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, 1995–98. Participants included 67 adults (38 men; 29 women) aged 24–75 years with IGT. The intervention consisted of regular diet and physical activity counselling based on the stages of change model. Main outcome measures were changes between baseline and 6 months in nutrient intake; physical activity; anthropometric and physiological measurements including serum lipids; glucose tolerance; insulin sensitivity. Results: The difference in change in total fat consumption was significant between intervention and control groups (difference −21.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) −37.8 to −5.8) g/day, P=0.008). A significantly larger proportion of intervention participants reported taking up vigorous activity than controls (difference 30.1, (95% CI 4.3–52.7)%, P=0.021). The change in body mass index was significantly different between groups (difference −0.95 (95% CI −1.5 to −0.4) kg/m2, P=0.001). There was no significant difference in change in mean 2-h plasma glucose between groups (difference −0.19 (95% CI −1.1 to 0.71) mmol/l, NS) or in serum cholesterol (difference 0.02 (95% CI −0.26 to 0.31) mmol/l, NS). The difference in change in fasting serum insulin between groups was significant (difference −3.4 (95% CI −5.8 to −1.1) mU/l, P=0.005). Conclusions: After 6 months of intensive lifestyle intervention in participants with IGT, there were changes in diet and physical activity, some cardiovascular risk factors and insulin sensitivity, but not glucose tolerance. Further follow-up is in progress to investigate whether these changes are sustained or augmented over 2 years.

Risk factors for surgically treated benign prostatic hyperplasia in Western Australia

Objective: To determine the relationship between personal, hormonal and lifestyle risk factors and surgically treated benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). Materials and methods: A population-based case–control study was conducted in Western Australia (WA) on men aged 40–75 years who were surgically treated at public and private hospitals for BPH during 2001–2002. Controls were recruited from the WA electoral roll. Cases and controls were compared with regard to demographic and lifestyle factors and proxy measures of hormonal status using logistic regression. Data were available for 398 cases and 471 controls. Results: No associations with BPH were found for family history of prostate cancer in father or brother, serving in the military in a combat area, pattern of baldness, smoking status, obesity, alcohol intake and occupational physical activity. The only inverse relationship was observed with heavy alcohol drinking (>30 g/day), however, this was not statistically significant. An increased risk of BPH, not statistically significant, was observed for British-born men compared to Australian born and for history of vasectomy. The analysis was repeated after excluding 28% of controls with moderate and severe symptoms of BPH and 7% of cases with mild symptoms prior to surgery, and our results remained essentially unchanged. Conclusions:The results suggest that there are few risk factors for BPH although perhaps country of birth, vasectomy and heavy alcohol consumption may be considered further.

Risk factors for violence and relational aggression in adolescence

Analyses examined risk factors for seventh- and ninth-grade youth  categorized as nonoffenders, physically violent, relationally aggressive, and both violent and relationally aggressive. Bivariate and multivariate results showed that relationally aggressive youth were elevated on most risks above levels for nonoffenders but lower than those for youth who were violent alone or violent in combination with relational aggression. Youth who were both relationally aggressive and violent did not differ from those who were violent alone on most risk factors examined. Peer, individual, and family risks were among the strongest predictors.

Early detection of depression and associated risk factors in adults with mild/moderate intellectual disability

The aim of this study was to determine the presentation and risk factors for depression in adults with mild/moderate intellectual disability (ID). A sample of 151 adults (83 males and 68 females) participated in a semi-structured interview. According to results on the Beck Depression Inventory II, 39.1% of participants evinced symptoms of depression (2 severe, 14 moderate, and 43 mild). Sadness, self-criticism, loss of energy, crying, and tiredness appeared to be the most frequent indicators of depression or risk for depression. A significant difference was found between individuals with and without symptoms of depression on levels of automatic negative thoughts, downward social comparison and self-esteem. Automatic negative thoughts, quality and frequency of social support, self-esteem, and disruptive life events significantly predicted depression scores in people with mild/moderate ID, accounting for 58.1% of the variance.