Bayesian classification of catchments using spatial data: a first step to improved modelling of catchment effects on stream ecological condition

A major challenge facing freshwater ecologists and managers is the development of models that link stream ecological condition to catchment scale effects, such as land use. Previous attempts to make such models have followed two general approaches. The bottom-up approach employs mechanistic models, which can quickly become too complex to be useful. The top-down approach employs empirical models derived from large data sets, and has often suffered from large amounts of unexplained variation in stream condition.

We believe that the lack of success of both modelling approaches may be at least partly explained by scientists considering too wide a breadth of catchment type. Thus, we believe that by stratifying large sets of catchments into groups of similar types prior to modelling, both types of models may be improved. This paper describes preliminary work using a Bayesian classification software package, ‘Autoclass’ (Cheeseman and Stutz 1996) to create classes of catchments within the Murray Darling Basin based on physiographic data.

Autoclass uses a model-based classification method that employs finite mixture modelling and trades off model fit versus complexity, leading to a parsimonious solution. The software provides information on the posterior probability that the classification is ‘correct’ and also probabilities for alternative classifications. The importance of each attribute in defining the individual classes is calculated and presented, assisting description of the classes. Each case is ‘assigned’ to a class based on membership probability, but the probability of membership of other classes is also provided. This feature deals very well with cases that do not fit neatly into a larger class. Lastly, Autoclass requires the user to specify the measurement error of continuous variables.

Catchments were derived from the Australian digital elevation model. Physiographic data werederived from national spatial data sets. There was very little information on measurement errors for the spatial data, and so a conservative error of 5% of data range was adopted for all continuous attributes. The incorporation of uncertainty into spatial data sets remains a research challenge.

The results of the classification were very encouraging. The software found nine classes of catchments in the Murray Darling Basin. The classes grouped together geographically, and followed altitude and latitude gradients, despite the fact that these variables were not included in the classification. Descriptions of the classes reveal very different physiographic environments, ranging from dry and flat catchments (i.e. lowlands), through to wet and hilly catchments (i.e. mountainous areas). Rainfall and slope were two important discriminators between classes. These two attributes, in particular, will affect the ways in which the stream interacts with the catchment, and can thus be expected to modify the effects of land use change on ecological condition. Thus, realistic models of the effects of land use change on streams would differ between the different types of catchments, and sound management practices will differ.

A small number of catchments were assigned to their primary class with relatively low probability. These catchments lie on the boundaries of groups of catchments, with the second most likely class being an adjacent group. The locations of these ‘uncertain’ catchments show that the Bayesian classification dealt well with cases that do not fit neatly into larger classes.

Although the results are intuitive, we cannot yet assess whether the classifications described in this paper would assist the modelling of catchment scale effects on stream ecological condition. It is most likely that catchment classification and modelling will be an iterative process, where the needs of the model are used to guide classification, and the results of classifications used to suggest further refinements to models.

Compositional effects on structure and transport properties in a polyelectrolyte gel

The copolymerization of lithium 2-acrylamido-2-methyl-1-propane sulfonate (LiAMPS) with N,N ′-dimethylacrylamide has yielded polyelectrolyte systems which can be gelled with an ethylene carbonate/N ′,N ′-dimethylacetamide solvent mixture and show high ionic conductivities. 7Li linewidth and relaxation times as well as 1H NMR diffusion coefficients have been used to investigate the effect of copolymer composition as well as copolymer concentration in the gel electrolyte with respect to ionic transport and polyelectrolyte structure. It appears that ion association is likely even in the case of low lithium salt concentration; however a rapid exchange exists between the associated and non-associated lithium species. Beyond 0.2 M of LiAMPS, both the conductivity and solvent diffusion reach a plateau, whilst lithium ion linewidth and spin-spin relaxation are suggestive, on average, of a less mobile species. The thermal analysis data is also supportive of this association effectively leading to a form of phase separation on the nanoscale, which gives a lower overall activity of lithium ions in the solvent rich regions beyond about 0.2 M of LiAMPS, thereby leading to an increase in the final liquidus temperature of the binary liquid solvent from –9 to +5°C.

Chemical immobilization of adult female Weddell seals with tiletamine and zolazepam: effects of age, condition and stage of lactation

Background

Chemical immobilization of Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) has previously been, for the most part, problematic and this has been mainly attributed to the type of immobilizing agent used. In addition to individual sensitivity, physiological status may play an important role. We investigated the use of the intravenous administration of a 1:1 mixture of tiletamine and zolazepam (Telazol®) to immobilize adult females at different points during a physiologically demanding 5–6 week lactation period. We also compared performance between IV and IM injection of the same mixture.
Results

The tiletamine:zolazepam mixture administered intravenously was an effective method for immobilization with no fatalities or pronounced apnoeas in 106 procedures; however, there was a 25 % (one animal in four) mortality rate with intramuscular administration. Induction time was slightly longer for females at the end of lactation (54.9 ± 2.3 seconds) than at post-parturition (48.2 ± 2.9 seconds). In addition, the number of previous captures had a positive effect on induction time. There was no evidence for effects due to age, condition (total body lipid), stage of lactation or number of captures on recovery time.
Conclusion

We suggest that intravenous administration of tiletamine and zolazepam is an effective and safe immobilizing agent for female Weddell seals. Although individual traits could not explain variation in recovery time, we suggest careful monitoring of recovery times during longitudinal studies (> 2 captures). We show that physiological pressures do not substantially affect response to chemical immobilization with this mixture; however, consideration must be taken for differences that may exist for immobilization of adult males and juveniles. Nevertheless, we recommend a mass-specific dose of 0.50 – 0.65 mg/kg for future procedures with adult female Weddell seals and a starting dose of 0.50 mg/kg for other age classes and other phocid seals.

Molecular mechanism of the synergistic effects of vitrification solutions on the stability of phospholipid bilayers

The vitrification solutions used in the cryopreservation of biological samples aim to minimize the deleterious formation of ice by dehydrating cells and promoting the formation of the glassy state of water. They contain a mixture of different cryoprotective agents (CPAs) in water, typically polyhydroxylated alcohols and/or dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), which can damage cell membranes. Molecular dynamics simulations have been used to investigate the behavior of pure DPPC, pure DOPC, and mixed DOPC-β-sitosterol bilayers solvated in a vitrification solution containing glycerol, ethylene glycol, and DMSO at concentrations that approximate the widely used plant vitrification solution 2. As in the case of solutions containing a single CPA, the vitrification solution causes the bilayer to thin and become disordered, and pores form in the case of some bilayers. Importantly, the degree of thinning is, however, substantially reduced compared to solutions of DMSO containing the same total CPA concentration. The reduction in the damage done to the bilayers is a result of the ability of the polyhydroxylated species (especially glycerol) to form hydrogen bonds to the lipid and sterol molecules of the bilayer. A decrease in the amount of DMSO in the vitrification solution with a corresponding increase in the amount of glycerol or ethylene glycol diminishes further its damaging effect due to increased hydrogen bonding of the polyol species to the bilayer headgroups. These findings rationalize, to our knowledge for the first time, the synergistic effects of combining different CPAs, and form the basis for the optimization of vitrification solutions. © 2014 Biophysical Society.

Effects of mineral admixtures and lime on disintegration of alkali-activated slag exposed to 50 °c

Alkali-activated slag can totally disintegrate when exposed to 50 C. This paper presents a study of possible solutions to avoid this disintegration by using silica fume (SF) and fly ash (FA) to partially replaceslag. It was found that partial replacement of slag with SF significantly reduces strength loss. A mixture of 50% slag 50% SF (cured at 25 and 60 C) showed no strength loss after the exposure. In comparison, a55% drop of strength was observed in a mixture of 50% slag 50% FA (cured at 25 C) after the same exposure.However, the strength loss of this mixture was reduced by 50% when cured at 60 C. The presence oflime in AAS pastes increases the degree of strength loss after the exposure. The mechanisms for the abovestrength results are discussed in terms of hydration products and microcracking.