Springback behaviour of TRIP steels in sheet metal forming

Examines the methods for numerical modelling of the springback effect in TRansformation Induced Plasticity (TRIP) steels under conditions of various bending processes. It represents a largely unexplored part of the TRIP steel literature and therefore makes a valuable contribution toward a practical approach to predicting springback in TRIP steels.

Advanced modelling of forming high strength steels

The thesis presents a novel approach in the multiscale modelling of Advanced High Strength Steels for prediction of the microstructural effects in forming processes. The results are compared with that of experiments and finite element method. The method is proved to be suitable for complexities in the multiphase AHSS.

Influence of task properties and subjectivity on consistency of triage: a simulation study

Aim. This paper reports a study to determine nurses' levels of agreement using a standard 5-point triage scale and to explore the influence of task properties and subjectivity on decision-making consistency.

Background. Triage scales are used to define time-to-treatment in hospital emergency departments. Studies of the inter-rater reliability of these scales using paper-based simulation methods report varying levels of consistency. Understanding how various components of the decision task and individual perceptions of the case influence agreement is critical to the development of strategies to improve consistency of triage.

Method. Simulations were constructed from naturalistic observation, cue types and frequencies were classified. Data collection was conducted in 2002, and the final response rate was 41·3%. Participants were asked to allocate an urgency code for 12 scenarios using the Australasian Triage Scale, and provide estimates of case complexity, levels of certainty and available information. Data were analysed descriptively, agreement between raters was calculated using kappa. The influence of task properties and participants' subjective estimates of case complexity, levels of certainty and available information on agreement were explored using a general linear model.

Findings. Agreement among raters varied from moderate to poor (κ = 0·18–0·64). Participants' subjective estimates of levels of available information were found to influence consistency of triage by statistically significant amounts (F 5·68; ≤0·01).

Conclusions. Strategies employed to optimize consistency of triage should focus on improving the quality of the simulations that are used. In particular, attention should be paid to the development of interactive simulations that will accommodate individual differences in information-seeking behaviour.

Compression and extrusion of metals using rotating dies

Experimental and theoretical investigations of compression and extrusion of metals with steadily or cyclically rotating dies were carried out. Reasonably simple models were produced by classical plasticity theory and analytical equations were developed to establish a theoretical basis for the associated phenomena. Analytical solutions agreed well with the experimental results.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive-behavioural therapy and drug interventions for major depression

Objective: Antidepressant drugs and cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) are effective treatment options for depression and are recommended by clinical practice guidelines. As part of the Assessing Cost-effectiveness – Mental Health project we evaluate the available evidence on costs and benefits of CBT and drugs in the episodic and maintenance treatment of major depression.

Method: The cost-effectiveness is modelled from a health-care perspective as the cost per disability-adjusted life year. Interventions are targeted at people with major depression who currently seek care but receive non-evidence based treatment. Uncertainty in model inputs is tested using Monte Carlo simulation methods.

Results: All interventions for major depression examined have a favourable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio under Australian health service conditions. Bibliotherapy, group CBT, individual CBT by a psychologist on a public salary and tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) are very cost-effective treatment options falling below $A10 000 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) even when taking the upper limit of the uncertainty interval into account. Maintenance treatment with selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs) is the most expensive option (ranging from $A17 000 to $A20 000 per DALY) but still well below $A50 000, which is considered the affordable threshold.

Conclusions: A range of cost-effective interventions for episodes of major depression exists and is currently underutilized. Maintenance treatment strategies are required to significantly reduce the burden of depression, but the cost of long-term drug treatment for the large number of depressed people is high if SSRIs are the drug of choice. Key policy issues with regard to expanded provision of CBT concern the availability of suitably trained providers and the funding mechanisms for therapy in primary care.

Colorectal cancer screening in Australia: an economic evaluation of a potential biennial screening program using faecal occult blood tests

Objective: To evaluate whether the introduction of a national, co-ordinated screening program using the faecal occult blood test represents 'value-for-money' from the perspective of the Australian Government as third-party funder.  Methods: The annual equivalent costs and consequences of a   biennial screening program in 'steady-state' operation were estimated for the Australian population using 1996 as the reference year. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years of life lost (YLLs) averted, and the health service costs were modelled, based on the epidemiology and the costs of colorectal cancer in Australia together with the mortality reduction achieved in randomised controlled trials. Uncertainty in the model was examined using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: We estimate a minimum or 'base program' of screening those aged 55 to 69 years could avert 250 deaths per annum (95% uncertainty interval 99–400), at a gross cost of $A55 million (95% UI $A46 million to $A96 million) and a gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $A17,000/DALY (95% UI $A13,000/DALY to $A52,000/DALY). Extending the program to include 70 to 74-year-olds is a more effective option (cheaper and higher health gain) than including the 50 to 54-year-olds. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the case for a national program directed at the 55 to 69-year-old age group with extension to 70 to 74-year-olds if there are sufficient resources. The pilot tests recently announced in Australia provide an important opportunity to consider the age range for screening and the sources of uncertainty, identified in the modelled evaluation, to assist decisions on implementing a full national program.

Towards development of a quality cost model for automotive stamping

The current work used discrete event simulation techniques to model the economics of quality within an actual automotive stamping plant. Automotive stamping is a complex, capital intensive process requiring part-specific tooling and specialised machinery. Quality control and quality improvement is difficult in the stamping environment due to the general lack of process understanding and the large number to interacting variables. These factors have prevented the widespread use of statistical process control. In this work, a model of the quality control techniques used at the Ford Geelong Stamping plant is developed and indirectly validated against results from production. To date, most discrete event models are of systems where the quality control process is clearly defined by the rules of statistical process control. However, the quality control technique used within the stamping plant is for the operator to perform a 100% visual inspection while unloading the finished panels. In the developed model, control is enacted after a cumulative count of defective items is observed, thereby approximating the operator who allows a number of defective panels to accumulate before resetting the line. Analysis of this model found that the cost sensitivity to inspection error is dependent upon the level of control and that the level of control determines line utilisation. Additional analysis of this model demonstrated that additional inspection processes would lead to more stable cost structures but these structures many not necessarily be lower cost. The model was subsequently applied to investigate the economics of quality improvement. The quality problem of panel blemishes, induced by slivers (small metal fragments), was chosen as a case stuffy. Errors of 20-30% were observed during direct validation of the cost model and it was concluded that the use of discrete event simulation models for applications requiring high accuracy would not be possible unless the production system was of low complexity. However, the model could be used to evaluate the sensitivity of input factors and investigating the effects of a number of potential improvement opportunities. Therefore, the research concluded that it is possible to use discrete event simulation to determine the quality economics of an actual stamping plant. However, limitations imposed by inability of the model to consider a number of external factors, such as continuous improvement, operator working conditions or wear and the lack of reliable quality data, result in low cost accuracy. Despite this, it still can be demonstrated that discrete event simulation has significant benefits over the alternate modelling methods.

Structured development of an asynchronous forth processor using trace theory

This thesis examines the use of a structured design methodology in the design of asynchronous circuits so that high level constructs can be specified purely in terms of signal exchanges and without the intrusion of lower level concepts. Trace theory is used to specify a multi-processor Forth machine at a high level then part of the design is further elaborated using trace theory operations to (insure that the behaviours of the lower level constructs will combine to give the high level specified behaviour without locking or other hazards. A novel form of threaded language to take advantage of the machine architecture is developed. At suitable points the design is tested by simulation. The stack element which is designed is reduced to an electric circuit which is itself tested by simulation to verify the design.

Praxis modelling : an evaluation of and extension to feature based modelling

This thesis presents Relation Based Modelling as an extension to the Feature Based Modelling approach to student modelling. Relation Based Modelling dynamically creates new terms allowing the instructional designer to specify a set of primitives and operators from which the modelling system will create the necessary elements. Focal modelling is a new technique devised to manipulate and coordinate the addition of new terms. The thesis presents an evaluation of student modelling systems based on predictive accuracy.

Analysis of springback variation in sheet metal forming

This thesis investigated how the variation in inputs, such as material and processing conditions affected the shape defect phenomenon (springback) for sheet metal forming processes. Using a stochastic Finite Element modelling tool, it was found that the material type and fluctuations in material properties significantly influenced the variation in springback.

Subjective wellbeing as an affective construct

The affective component of Subjective Wellbeing (SWB) was investigated according to the Circumplex model of affect. Structural equation modelling demonstrated that affect is the dominant component of SWB and it is concluded that core affect is the central component of SWB, and the driving force behind SWB homeostasis.

Integrative catchment modelling of land use, turbidity, flow and geology

The thesis outlines and demonstrates the various aspects that contribute towards water quality management systems and the important use of storage/water quality models. The application of models is demonstrated through the functions that modelling components have on sustainable regional development, and through linkage with water quality systems.

Structured methodology for evaluating stamping feasibility of new part design

With the introduction of ultra high strength materials and new forming techniques the feasibility process to produce a manufacturable component is extremely difficult. The aim of this thesis was to develop a set of 'design windows' and 'guidelines' for designers and stamping engineers to reference in the initial design phase.

Improving stamping tryout using variational analysis, FE simulations and robustness

The tryout process at an automotive sheet metal production plant is outlined and analysed with the aim of augmenting the process to improve robustness through an understanding of variation using Finite Element (FE) analysis and other tools. The result is tryout can produce a more robust stamping process.