Hierarchical semi-markov conditional random fields for recursive sequential data

Inspired by the hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMM), we present the hierarchical semi-Markov conditional random field (HSCRF), a generalisation of embedded undirected Markov chains to model complex hierarchical, nested Markov processes. It is parameterised in a discriminative framework and has polynomial time algorithms for learning and inference. Importantly, we develop efficient algorithms for learning and constrained inference in a partially-supervised setting, which is important issue in practice where labels can only be obtained sparsely. We demonstrate the HSCRF in two applications: (i) recognising human activities of daily living (ADLs) from indoor surveillance cameras, and (ii) noun-phrase chunking. We show that the HSCRF is capable of learning rich hierarchical models with reasonable accuracy in both fully and partially observed data cases.

Contextually Learnt Detection of Unusual Motion-Based Behaviour in Crowded Public Spaces

In this paper we are interested in analyzing behaviour in crowded publicplaces at the level of holistic motion. Our aim is to learn, without user input, strong scene priors or labelled data, the scope of ‘‘normal behaviour’’ for a particular scene and thus alert to novelty in unseen footage. The first contribution is a low-level motion model based on what we term tracklet primitives, which are scenespecific elementary motions. We propose a clustering-based algorithm for tracklet estimation from local approximations to tracks of appearance features. This is followed by two methods for motion novelty inference from tracklet primitives: (a) an approach based on a non-hierarchial ensemble of Markov chains as a means of capturing behavioural characteristics at different scales, and (b) a more flexible alternative which exhibits a higher generalizing power by accounting for constraints introduced by intentionality and goal-oriented planning of human motion in a particular scene. Evaluated on a 2 h long video of a busy city marketplace, both algorithms are shown to be successful at inferring unusual behaviour, the latter model achieving better performance for novelties at a larger spatial scale.

Inferring activity budgets in wild animals to estimate the consequences of disturbances

Activity budgets can provide a direct link to an animal's bioenergetic budget and is thus a valuable unit of measure when assessing human-induced nonlethal effects on wildlife conservation status. However, activity budget inference can be challenging for species that are difficult to observe and require multiple observational variables. Here, we assessed whether whalewatching boat interactions could affect the activity budgets of minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata). We used a stepwise modeling approach to quantitatively record, identify, and assign activity states to continuous behavioral time series data, to estimate activity budgets. First, we used multiple behavioral variables, recorded from continuous visual observations of individual animals, to quantitatively identify and define behavioral types. Activity states were then assigned to each sampling unit, using a combination of hidden and observed states. Three activity states were identified: nonfeeding, foraging, and surface feeding (SF). From the resulting time series of activity states, transition probability matrices were estimated using first-order Markov chains. We then simulated time series of activity states, using Monte Carlo methods based on the transition probability matrices, to obtain activity budgets, accounting for heterogeneity in state duration. Whalewatching interactions reduced the time whales spend foraging and SF, potentially resulting in an overall decrease in energy intake of 42%. This modeling approach thus provides a means to link short-term behavioral changes resulting from human disturbance to potential long-term bioenergetic consequences in animals. It also provides an analytical framework applicable to other species when direct observations of activity states are not possible.

Integrating network analysis, sensor tags, and observation to understand shark ecology and behavior

Group living in animals is a well-studied phenomenon, having been documented extensively in a wide range of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species. Although social dynamics are complex across space and time, recent technological and analytical advances enable deeper understanding of their nature and ecological implications. While for some taxa, a great deal of information is known regarding the mechanistic underpinnings of these social processes, knowledge of these mechanisms in elasmobranchs is lacking. Here, we used an integrative and novel combination of direct observation, accelerometer biologgers, and recent advances in network analysis to better understand the mechanistic bases of individual-level differences in sociality (leadership, network attributes) and diel patterns of locomotor activity in a widespread marine predator, the lemon shark (Negaprion brevirostris). We found that dynamic models of interaction based on Markov chains can accurately predict juvenile lemon shark social behavior and that lemon sharks did not occupy consistent positions within their network. Lemon sharks did however preferentially associate with specific group members, by sex as well as by similarity or nonsimilarity for a number of behavioral (nonsimilarity: leadership) and locomotor traits (similarity: proportion of time swimming "fast," mean swim duration; nonsimilarity: proportion of swimming bursts/transitions between activity states). Our study provides some of the first information on the mechanistic bases of group living and personality in sharks and further, a potential experimental approach for studying fine-scale differences in behavior and locomotor patterns in difficult-to-study organisms.

Assuring virtual network reliability and resilience

A framework developed that uses reliability block diagrams and continuous-time Markov chains to model and analyse the reliability and availability of a Virtual Network Environment (VNE). In addition, to minimize the unpredicted failures and reduce the impact of failure on a virtual network, a dynamic solution proposed for detecting a failure before it occurs in the VNE. Moreover, to predict failure and establish a tolerable maintenance plan before failure occurs in the VNE, a failure prediction method for VNE can be used to minimise the unpredicted failures, reduce backup redundancy and maximise system performance.

Hidden Markov models for cancer classification using gene expression profiles

This paper introduces an approach to cancer classification through gene expression profiles by designing supervised learning hidden Markov models (HMMs). Gene expression of each tumor type is modelled by an HMM, which maximizes the likelihood of the data. Prominent discriminant genes are selected by a novel method based on a modification of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Unlike conventional AHP, the modified AHP allows to process quantitative factors that are ranking outcomes of individual gene selection methods including t-test, entropy, receiver operating characteristic curve, Wilcoxon test and signal to noise ratio. The modified AHP aggregates ranking results of individual gene selection methods to form stable and robust gene subsets. Experimental results demonstrate the performance dominance of the HMM approach against six comparable classifiers. Results also show that gene subsets generated by modified AHP lead to greater accuracy and stability compared to competing gene selection methods, i.e. information gain, symmetrical uncertainty, Bhattacharyya distance, and ReliefF. The modified AHP improves the classification performance not only of the HMM but also of all other classifiers. Accordingly, the proposed combination between the modified AHP and HMM is a powerful tool for cancer classification and useful as a real clinical decision support system for medical practitioners.

Generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates for markov random fields on lattice

In this paper we generalize Besag's pseudo-likelihood function for spatial statistical models on a region of a lattice. The correspondingly defined maximum generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates (MGPLEs) are natural extensions of Besag's maximum pseudo-likelihood estimate (MPLE). The MGPLEs connect the MPLE and the maximum likelihood estimate. We carry out experimental calculations of the MGPLEs for spatial processes on the lattice. These simulation results clearly show better performances of the MGPLEs than the MPLE, and the performances of differently defined MGPLEs are compared. These are also illustrated by the application to two real data sets.

How intimate are Australian e-business retail supply chains?

The adoption of electronic commerce strategies is becoming an important means of assisting industries, and indeed whole economies, to gain significant net benefits. The extent to which e-commerce-based strategies, such as quick response and efficient consumer response, might have an effect on local economies depends in part on how readily they are being adopted. The dominant form of adoption of these strategies is to be found in the business-to-business forms of e-commerce. To be successful, business partners must be in a position to develop customer intimacy through sharing of information, to improve their stock replenishment practices, and enhance their levels of online customer support. This paper presents the initial results of a national survey completed in the retail sector of the Australian economy, that assesses how well Australian industry is responding to these e-commerce challenges.

Identifying markov blankets using lasso estimation

Determining the causal relation among attributes in a domain is a key task in data mining and knowledge discovery. The Minimum Message Length (MML) principle has demonstrated its ability in discovering linear causal models from training data. To explore the ways to improve efficiency, this paper proposes a novel Markov Blanket identification algorithm based on the Lasso estimator. For each variable, this algorithm first generates a Lasso tree, which represents a pruned candidate set of possible feature sets. The Minimum Message Length principle is then employed to evaluate all those candidate feature sets, and the feature set with minimum message length is chosen as the Markov Blanket. Our experiment results show the ability of this algorithm. In addition, this algorithm can be used to prune the search space of causal discovery, and further reduce the computational cost of those score-based causal discovery algorithms.

Innovation chains: possibilities and constraints for critical perspectives on computers, difference and educational innovation

While declarations of ‘innovativeness’ are easily found in most educational contexts, it is significantly more difficult to locate detailed definitions of what educational innovation actually means. In this paper we are interested in identifying the extent to which mainstream takes on ‘innovation’ (as played out in contemporary technology and equity debates) reflect or respond to what we will define as the more innovative dimensions of innovation literature itself. Our aim throughout this paper, then, is to begin the complex process of developing a means for distinguishing between projects that are ‘badged’ as innovative and projects that are more demonstrably (and sustainably) innovative. In this process we will distinguish between what Shiv Visvanathn describes as “innovation chains”— dynamic, rhizomatic, transformative responses to the contemporary world that lead to fundamentally new ways of conceptualising technology, culture and difference—and the constraints—or chains—provided by dominant understandings of innovation: chains which anchor us to existing, hegemonic and limiting understandings of student
diversity and educational technology.

An evaluation of contemporary hidden Markov model genefinders with a predicted exon taxonomy

We present an independent evaluation of six recent hidden Markov model (HMM) genefinders. Each was tested on the new dataset (FSH298), the results of which showed no dramatic improvement over the genefinders tested five years ago. In addition, we introduce a comprehensive taxonomy of predicted exons and classify each resulting exon accordingly. These results are useful in measuring (with finer granularity) the effects of changes in a genefinder. We present an analysis of these results and identify four patterns of inaccuracy common in all HMM-based results.