Modelling of potential food policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga and their impacts on noncommunicable disease mortality

Background: To compare the likely costs and benefits of a range of potential policy interventions in Fiji and Tonga targeted at diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), in order to support more evidence-based decision-making.

Method: A relatively simple and quick macro-simulation methodology was developed. Logic models were developed by local stakeholders and used to identify costs and dietary impacts of policy changes. Costs were confined to government costs, and excluded cost offsets. The best available evidence was combined with local data to model impacts on deaths from noncommunicable diseases over the lifetime of the target population. Given that the modelling necessarily entailed assumptions to compensate for gaps in data and evidence, use was made of probabilistic uncertainty analysis.

Results: Costs of implementing policy changes were generally low, with the exception of some requiring additional long-term staffing or construction activities. The most effective policy options in Fiji and Tonga targeted access to local produce and high-fat meats respectively, and were estimated to avert approximately 3% of diet-related NCD deaths in each population. Many policies had substantially lower benefits. Cost-effectiveness was higher for the low-cost policies. Similar policies produced markedly different results in the two countries.

Conclusion: Despite the crudeness of the method, the consistent modelling approach used across all the options, allowed reasonable comparisons to be made between the potential policy costs and impacts. This type of modelling can be used to support more evidence-based and informed decision-making about policy interventions and facilitate greater use of policy to achieve a reduction in NCDs.

What is the optimal level of population alcohol consumption for chronic disease prevention in England? Modelling the impact of changes in average consumption levels

Objective To estimate the impact of achieving alternative average population alcohol consumption levels on chronic disease mortality in England.

Design A macro-simulation model was built to simultaneously estimate the number of deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertensive disease, diabetes, liver cirrhosis, epilepsy and five cancers that would be averted or delayed annually as a result of changes in alcohol consumption among English adults. Counterfactual scenarios assessed the impact on alcohol-related mortalities of changing (1) the median alcohol consumption of drinkers and (2) the percentage of non-drinkers.

Data sources Risk relationships were drawn from published meta-analyses. Age- and sex-specific distributions of alcohol consumption (grams per day) for the English population in 2006 were drawn from the General Household Survey 2006, and age-, sex- and cause-specific mortality data for 2006 were provided by the Office for National Statistics.

Results The optimum median consumption level for drinkers in the model was 5 g/day (about half a unit), which would avert or delay 4579 (2544 to 6590) deaths per year. Approximately equal numbers of deaths from cancers and liver disease would be delayed or averted (∼2800 for each), while there was a small increase in cardiovascular mortality. The model showed no benefit in terms of reduced mortality when the proportion of non-drinkers in the population was increased.

Conclusions Current government recommendations for alcohol consumption are well above the level likely to minimise chronic disease. Public health targets should aim for a reduction in population alcohol consumption in order to reduce chronic disease mortality.

Simulation of dynamic recrystallization using random grid cellular automata

Computer simulation is a powerful tool to predict microstructure and its evolution in dynamic and post-dynamic recrystallization. CAFE proposed as an appropriate approach by combining finite element (FE) method and cellular automata (CA) for recrystallization simulation. In the current study, a random grid cellular automaton (CA), as micro-scale model, based on finite element (FE), as macro-scale method, has been used to study initial and evolving microstructural features; including nuclei densities, dislocation densities, grain size and grain boundary movement during dynamic recrystallization in a C-Mn steel. An optimized relation has been established between mechanical variables and evolving microstructure features during recrystallization and grain growth. In this model, the microstructure is defined as cells located within grains and grain boundaries while dislocations are randomly dispersed throughout microstructure. Changes of dislocation density during deformation are described considering hardening, recovery and recrystallization. Recrystallization is assumed to initiate near grain boundaries and nucleation rate was considered constant (site-saturated condition). The model produced a mathematical formulation which captured the initial and evolving microstructural entities and linked their effects to measurable macroscopic variables (e.g. stress).

Ethical trust and social moral norms simulation : a bio-inspired agent-based modelling approach

The understanding of the micro-macro link is an urgent need in the study of social systems. The complex adaptive nature of social systems adds to the challenges of understanding social interactions and system feedback and presents substantial scope and potential for extending the frontiers of computer-based research tools such as simulations and agent-based technologies. In this project, we seek to understand key research questions concerning the interplay of ethical trust at the individual level and the development of collective social moral norms as representative sample of the bigger micro-macro link of social systems. We outline our computational model of ethical trust (CMET) informed by research findings from trust, machine ethics and neural science. Guided by the CMET architecture, we discuss key implementation ideas for the simulations of ethical trust and social moral norms.

Multi-scale simulation using a hybrid mass-spring system and finite element model

Ply-scale finite element (FE) models are widely used to predict the performance of a composite structure based on material properties of individual plies. When simulating damage, these models neglect microscopic fracture processes which may have a significant effect on how a crack progresses within and between plies of a multidirectional laminate. To overcome this resolution limitation a multi-scale modelling technique is employed to simulate the effect micro-scale damage events have on the macro-scale response of a structure. The current paper discusses the development and validation of a hybrid mass-spring system and finite element modelling technique for multi-scale analysis. The model developed here is limited to elastic deformations; however, it is the first key step towards an efficient multi-scale damage model well suited to simulation of fracture in fibre reinforced composite materials. Various load cases have been simulated using the model developed here which show excellent accuracy compared to analytical and FE results. Future work is discussed, including extension of the model to incorporate damage modelling.