Forecasting stock index volatility : comparing implied volatility and the intraday high-low price range

The intraday high–low price range offers volatility forecasts similarly efficient to high-quality implied volatility indexes published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) for four stock market indexes: S&P 500, S&P 100, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrials. Examination of in-sample and out-of-sample volatility forecasts reveals that neither implied volatility nor intraday high–low range volatility consistently outperforms the other.

Effect of low and high glycaemic index diets on developing the risk of metabolic syndrome in rats

Several observational studies have shown that the chronic consumption of high glycaemic index diet is associated with an increased risk of developing metabolic syndrome.  This study was performed to identify the direct influences on the lipid profile and the adipose tissue deposition and the subsequent development of the risk of metabolic syndrome in rats by feeding diets of low glycaemic index (LGI) and high glycaemic index (HGI). Fifty rat weanlings (three weeks old) were equally divided into two groups and fed on either low glycaemic index diet based on high amylose, or isocaloric high glycacmic index diet for 12 weeks. Postprandial blood and tissue samples were collected at the end of the 12 weeks of feeding. The total white adipose tissue weights of the HGl fed rats (24.74 ± 0.53 glrat) were significantly higher than the LGl fed rats (15.37 ± 0.36 gh·at). The HO! led rats had higher postprandial leptin concentrations (1.86 ± 0.17 ng/ml) than LGI fed rats (1.34 ± 0.12 ng/ml). The postprandial insulin, and postprandial insulin glucose ratio were higher in the HGI fed rats (7.06 ± 0.90 ng/ml and 0.67 ± 0.01 ng/mlxmM) compared to the LGl fed rats (3.91 ± 0.4 ng/ml and 0.44 ± 0.01 ng/mlxmM). Triglycerides of the l-IGI fed rats showed higher values (I .56 ± 0.10 mM) than the LO! fed rats (l.07 ± 0.08 mM). The results indicated that LGI feeding was beneficial in preventing the conditions enhancing the cardio vascular disease whereas long-term feeding of HGI diet may increase the risk of developing metabolic syndrome in rats.

The development of the Melbourne low vision ADL index : a measure of vision disability

PURPOSE. To develop a new test of activities of daily living (ADLs) appropriate for the low-vision population: the Melbourne Low-Vision ADL Index (MLVAI).

METHODS. The MLVAI was designed as a desk-based clinical assessment, comprising 18 observed items on complex ADLs in part (a) and 9 questions on broad self-care ADLs in part (b). Each item was rated on a five-level descriptive scale from 0 to 4, based on independence, speed, and accuracy of performance. It was designed to be administered under standardized conditions with regard to the instructions, illumination, and working distances. The validity and reliability of the new MLVAI was determined for 122 subjects who were representative of the general low-vision population, in a cross-sectional study.

RESULTS. Two items were found to be redundant and were eliminated from the test. Thus, the final test comprised 25 items, with 100 being the highest possible score. Cronbach’s α indicated an internal reliability of 0.96, and an intraclass correlation coefficient indicated an overall reliability of 0.95. The SE of measurement was 4.5. According to Spearman’s correlation coefficient, the test–retest reliability was 0.94 (P < 0.001), and the interpractitioner reliability for five different pairs of practitioners was 0.90 or higher (P < 0.001). With regard to validity, there was a moderately high correlation with vision impairment (r = −0.68, P < 0.001). Using Rasch analysis, content validity was also demonstrated by good separation indexes (4.70 and 9.88) and high reliability scores (0.96 and 0.99) for the person and items parameters, respectively. Separate calculation of indexes and reliability scores for parts (a) and (b) indicated high content validity and reliability of each part. However, the separation indexes and reliability scores were higher for part (a) than for part (b). The correlation coefficient for part (a) and part (b) was 0.68.

CONCLUSIONS. The MLVAI is a highly valid and reliable standardized test of ADL performance for the general low-vision population. It may be used to assess patients with low vision and has the potential to be used as a measure of low-vision rehabilitation outcomes.

Preliminary investigation of the responsiveness of the Melbourne low vision ADL index to low-vision rehabilitation

Purpose. To conduct a preliminary investigation on the ability of the Melbourne Low Vision ADL Index to detect changes in functional ability as a result of low-vision rehabilitation.

Methods. Twenty two subjects with age-related macular degeneration (ARMD) who were newly referred to the Kooyong Low Vision Clinic were recruited. The Melbourne Low Vision ADL Index was administered prerehabilitation and postrehabilitation. Changes in scores and effect size statistics were analyzed.

Results. The median total score for the subjects prerehabilitation was 67, and the median total score postrehabilitation was 76. The difference in prerehabilitation and postrehabilitation scores was statistically significant (Wilcoxon signed rank test = 248.5, p < 0.001). The mean change score for the total Melbourne Low Vision ADL Index was 9.3 (SD, 5.6). Thus the overall effect size statistic (mean change score divided by SD of prerehabilitation score) was 0.78.

Conclusions. This preliminary investigation indicates that the Melbourne Low Vision ADL Index is responsive to a rehabilitation program for patients with ARMD. It has potential to be used as a measure of low-vision rehabilitation outcomes.

A weighted version of the Melbourne low-vision ADL index : a measure of disability impact

Objective. To develop a version of the Melbourne Low-Vision ADL Index that measures the personal impact of disability in activities of daily living (ADL's). Also, to determine the relationship between clinical measures of vision impairment and disability impact.

Methods. The Melbourne Low-Vision ADL Index (MLVAI) is a desk-based clinical assessment of disability in ADL's. Ability to perform each item is rated on a five-level descriptive scale from zero to four. In this study, the original version of the MLVAI was modified to measure disability impact. The simple modification involved weighting each item by the importance of that item to the person being tested. Importance was also rated on a five-level scale from zero to four. The validity and reliability of the Weighted Melbourne Low-Vision ADL Index (MLVAIW) was determined for 97 vision-impaired subjects in a cross-sectional study.

Results. Cronbach's alpha coefficient indicated an internal reliability of 0.94, and an intraclass correlation coefficient indicated an overall reliability of 0.88. The standard error of measurement was 24.7 points (out of a possible score of 400). There was a statistically significant difference in test scores between normal subjects and vision-impaired subjects. All vision measures had a high, statistically significant correlation with MLVAIW score. Near-word acuity had the strongest correlation (rs = 0.78, p < 0.001), followed by Melbourne Edge Test contrast sensitivity (rs = -0.72, p < 0.001). Visual field had the weakest correlation (rs = -0.52, p < 0.001). The best predictive model of MLVAIW score incorporated the variables age, near-word acuity, and visual field. Together, these variables accounted for 65.1% of the variance in MLVAIW score.

Conclusions. The MLVAI is highly valid and reliable when weighted by a scale that reflects the personal importance of ADL's. The MLVAIW can provide information over and above that obtained with the usual clinical vision measures and may be used to assess low-vision patients and to measure low-vision rehabilitation outcomes. It is suggested that the assessment of disability using the original MLVAI and the assessment of the impact of disability using the MLVAIW should be kept separate to facilitate the clear interpretation of the outcomes of low-vision rehabilitation.

Consumption of a low glycaemic index diet in late life extends lifespan of Balb/c mice with differential effects on DNA damage

Background : Caloric restriction is known to extend the lifespan of all organisms in which it has been tested. Consequently, current research is investigating the role of various foods to improve health and lifespan. The role of various diets has received less attention however, and in some cases may have more capacity to improve health and longevity than specific foods alone. We examined the benefits to longevity of a low glycaemic index (GI) diet in aged Balb/c mice and examined markers of oxidative stress and subsequent effects on telomere dynamics.

Results : In an aged population of mice, a low GI diet extended average lifespan by 12%, improved glucose tolerance and had impressive effects on amelioration of oxidative damage to DNA in white blood cells. Telomere length in quadriceps muscle showed no improvement in the dieted group, nor was telomerase reactivated.

Conclusion : The beneficial effects of a low GI diet are evident from the current study and although the impact to telomere dynamics late in life is minimal, we expect that earlier intervention with a low GI diet would provide significant improvement in health and longevity with associated effects to telomere homeostasis.

Effects of ingesting low glycemic index carbohydrate food for the sahur meal on subjective, metabolic and physiological responses, and endurance performance in Ramadan fasted men

To investigate the effect of low glycemic index (LGI) carbohydrate meal on subjective, metabolic and physiological responses, and endurance performance in the Ramadan fasted state.

Developing a national index of subjective wellbeing: the Australian unity wellbeing index

The Australian Unity Wellbeing Index has been designed as a new barometer of Australians' satisfaction with their lives, and life in Australia. It is based on, and develops, the theoretical model of subjective wellbeing homeostasis. The Index comprises two sub-scales of Personal and National Wellbeing. Data were collected through a nationally representative sample of 2,000 people in April/May 2001.Factor analysis confirmed the integrity of the two sub-scales and, confirming empirical expectation, the average level of life satisfaction was 75.5 percent of the scale maximum score. Group comparisons revealed that all age groups maintained their Personal Index score within the normal range. In addition,people in country areas were more satisfied with their personal lives than city-dwellers,but less satisfied about the national situation, and people who had recently experienced a strong positive event evidenced arise in wellbeing, whereas those who had experienced a strong negative event evidenced wellbeing in the low-normal range. It is argued that these data generally support homeostatic theory. However, an unusual result was that females were more satisfied with their own lives than males. A tentative argument is advanced that this may represent a constitutional difference. It is concluded that the Australian Unity Wellbeing Index has potential as a valid, reliable and sensitive instrument to monitor national wellbeing.

Safety of low-carbohydrate diets

Low-carbohydrate diets have re-emerged into the public spotlight and are enjoying a high degree of popularity as people search for a solution to the population's ever-expanding waistline. The current evidence though indicates that low-carbohydrate diets present no significant advantage over more traditional energy-restricted diets on long-term weight loss and maintenance. Furthermore, a higher rate of adverse side-effects can be attributed to low-carbohydrate dieting approaches. Short-term efficacy of low-carbohydrate diets has been demonstrated for some lipid parameters of cardiovascular risk and measures of glucose control and insulin sensitivity, but no studies have ascertained if these effects represent a change in primary outcome measures. Low-carbohydrate diets are likely effective and not harmful in the short term and may have therapeutic benefits for weight-related chronic diseases although weight loss on such a program should be undertaken under medical supervision. While new commercial incarnations of the low-carbohydrate diet are now addressing overall dietary adequacy by encouraging plenty of high-fibre vegetables, fruit, low-glycaemic-index carbohydrates and healthier fat sources, this is not the message that reaches the entire public nor is it the type of diet adopted by many people outside of the world of a well-designed clinical trial. Health effects of long-term ad hoc restriction of inherently beneficial food groups without a concomitant reduction in body weight remains unanswered.

Body mass index and parent-reported self-estem in elementary school children: evidence for a causal relationship.

OBJECTIVE: To clarify relationships between body mass index (BMI) and self-esteem in young children at a population level. To assess whether low self-esteem precedes or follows development of overweight/obesity in children. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study in elementary schools throughout Victoria, Australia. Child BMI and self-esteem were measured in 1997 and 2000. SUBJECTS: Random sample of 1,157 children who were in the first 4 y of elementary school (aged 5-10 y) at baseline. MEASURES: BMI was calculated from measured height and weight, then transformed to z-scores. Children were classified as nonoverweight, overweight or obese based on international cut-points. Low child self-esteem was defined as a score below the 15th percentile on the self-esteem subscale of the parent-reported Child Health Questionnaire. RESULTS: Overweight/obese children had lower median self-esteem scores than nonoverweight children at both timepoints, especially at follow-up. After accounting for baseline self-esteem, higher baseline BMI z-score predicted poorer self-esteem at follow-up (P=0.008). After accounting for baseline BMI z-score, poorer baseline self-esteem did not predict higher BMI z-score at follow-up. While nonoverweight children with low baseline self-esteem were more likely to develop overweight/obesity (OR=2.1, 95% CI=1.2, 3.6), this accounted for only a small proportion of the incidence of overweight. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show an increasingly strong association between lower self-esteem and higher body mass across the elementary school years. Overweight/obesity precedes low self-esteem in many children, suggesting a causal relationship. This indicates that prevention and management strategies for childhood overweight/obesity need to begin early to minimise the impact on self-esteem.

Diminishing and negative welfare returns of economic growth : an index of sustainable economic welfare (ISEW) for Thailand

Thailand has achieved remarkable levels of economic growth over the last three decades. This sustained economic growth has played a major role in reducing absolute poverty levels from nearly one third of the population in 1975 to presently less than 10%, thus increasing the welfare of many Thais. This performance ranks Thailand as one of the world's most successful economies during this period. However, an increasing number of studies have begun to find that at a certain point achieving economic growth stops improving welfare and actually begins to diminish it due to the hidden and traditionally unreported costs of associated with this growth. With one exception, these new studies have focussed on high-income countries. This study will estimate an index of sustainable economic welfare (ISEW) for a developing country, Thailand, over a 25-year period, 1975–1999. This paper concludes that even low–middle income countries are beginning to approach the point in which economic growth produces both diminishing and, at times, negative welfare returns as the costs of achieving economic growth begin to outweigh the benefits. These results are important for policy makers and highlight the importance of implementing alternative welfare enhancing interventions that must be considered in place of simply achieving economic growth. The emphasis of this paper is not on the methodology of estimating the ISEW for Thailand, but rather on the policy implications for developing countries of diminishing and negative welfare returns brought about through the achievement of economic growth.

Widening development prescriptions: policy implications of an index of sustainable economic welfare (SEW) for Thailand

Over the past three decades, Thailand has recorded consistently high levels of economic growth, making it one of the most successful economies in the world during this period. However, economic growth has associated costs that can also reduce social welfare. This study will estimate an Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) for Thailand over a twenty-five year period, 1975–1999. This paper concludes that even low-middle income countries are beginning to approach the point at which economic growth produces both diminishing and, at times, negative welfare returns as the costs of achieving growth begin to outweigh the associated benefits. These results are important for policy makers and highlight the importance of widening policy prescriptions in order to increase social welfare. However, the policy guidelines that are suggested must be critically accepted before being adopted due to possible weaknesses of the ISEW approach.

A low-cost 3-D laser imaging system

This paper presents the design and development of a low cost three-dimensional laser imaging system for scanning suitable surfaces. A generic, low cost, off-the-shelf laser range finder is used to obtain the primary one dimensional distance measurement. The range finder’s laser beam is reflected by a twin-axis mirror assembly driven by stepper motors providing the system with two angular degrees of freedom, allowing 3-D measurements to be determined. A camera and image processing techniques are used to determine the measured 1-D range value from the generic range-finding device. A computer program then uses the obtained data to create a 3-D point cloud. An algorithm is then used to construct a 3-D wire frame mesh representing the scanned surface. The system has an angular resolution of 1.8° and the results obtained demonstrate the system to have an accuracy of approximately ± 2cm at a scanning distance of 1.0m.

Preliminary investigations into tris(2,2'-bipyridyl) ruthenium (III) as a chemiluminescent reagent for the detection of 3,6-diacetylmorphine (heroin) on surfaces

The use of tris(2,2'-bipyridyl) ruthenium (III) as a chemiluminescent spray reagent spot-test for heroin is discussed. Two forms of the reagent are investigated an aqueous and an anhydrous where both were found to give vastly different results. The aqueous reagent giving slow, low intensity chemiluminescence whilst the anhydrous reagent gave a fast, bright response in the presence of 3,6-diacetylmorphine. The anhydrous reagent is less sensitive the slow, intensity response is characteristic of only two opiates tested 3,6-diacetylmorphine and 3-monoacetylmorphine.

Effects of low dosage pyrene pollution on biochemical characters of earthworm (Eisenia fetida) in soil

By the method of artificial soil pollution, an exposure experiment with different concentrations of pyrene (0, 60, 120, 240, 480, 960 microg x kg(-1)) was conducted to determine the cytochrome P450 and MDA contents and the glutathione-S-transferase (GST), superoxide dismutase (SOD), peroxidase (POD) and catalase (CAT) activities in earthworm gut after exposure for 1, 3, 7 and 14 days. The results indicated that within the range of test pyrene concentrations, all the biochemical indices tested differed in their sensitivity to pyrene toxicity, among which, P450 content and GST and SOD activities were most sensitive, followed by POD and CAT activities, while MDA content did not show any obvious response. Exposure duration had stronger effects than exposure dosage. In diagnosing the ecotoxicity of soil pollutant, it could be necessary to use a combined multi-time and multi-index diagnostic method to enhance the sensitivity and effectiveness of the indices adopted.