Simulating urban growth in a developing nation's region using a cellular automata-based model

Urbanization is one of the most evident global changes. Research in the field of urban growth modelling has generated models that explore for drivers and components of the urban growth dynamics. Cellular automata (CA) modeling is one of the recent advances, and a number of CA-based models of urban growth have produced satisfactory simulations of spatial urban expansion over time. Most application and test of CA-based models of urban growth which provide likely and reliable simulations has been developed in urban regions of developed nations; urban regions in the United States, in particular. This is because most of the models were developed in universities and research centers of developed nations, and these regions have the required data, which is extensive. Most of the population growth in the world, however, occurs in the developing world. While some European countries show signs of stabilization of their population, in less developed countries, such as India, population still grows exponentially. And this growth is normally uncoordinated, which results in serious environmental and social problems in urban areas. Therefore, the use of existing dynamic–spatial models of urban growth in regions of developing nations could be a means to assist planners and decision makers of these regions to understand and simulate the process of urban growth and test the results of different development strategies. The pattern of growth of urban regions of developing nations, however, seems to be different of the pattern of developed countries. The former use to be more dense and centralized, normally expanding outwards from consolidated urban areas; while the second is normally more fragmented and sparse. The present paper aims to investigate to how extent existing CA-based urban growth models tested in developed nations can also be applied to a developing country urban area. The urban growth model was applied to Porto Alegre City, Brazil. An expected contiguous expansion from existing urban areas has been obtained as following the historical trends of growth of the region. Moreover, the model was sensitive and able to portray different pattern of growth in the study area by changing the value of its parameters.

The association between the investment opportunity set and corporate financing and dividend decisions: some Australian evidence

Summarizes previous research on the investment opportunity set (IOS) using price-based and investment-based proxies and variance measures; and develops hypotheses on the relationship between IOS, debt/equity ratios and dividend policies. Tests them on 1990-1998 data from listed Australian companies and explains the methodology, which builds on Gover and Gover (1993) by including more recent proxy variables. Finds no significant results from low growth firms, although some high growth firms show lower debt/equity ratios and dividends. Questions the robustness of existing IOS proxies in the Australian context and calls for further research.

The effect of exercise and nutrition on the mechanostat

In this review, we discuss the effect of increased and decreased loading and nutrition deficiency on muscle and bone mass and strength (and bone length and architecture) independently and combined. Both exercise and nutrition are integral components of the mechanostat model but both have distinctly different roles. Mechanical strain imparted by muscle action is responsible for the development of the external size and shape of the bone and subsequently the bone strength. In contrast, immobilization during growth results in reduced growth in bone length and a loss of bone strength due to large losses in bone mass (a result of endosteal resorption in cortical bone and trabecular thinning) and changes in geometry (bone shafts do not develop their characteristic shape but rather develop a rounded default shape). The use of surrogate measures for peak muscle forces acting on bone (muscle strength, size, or mass) limits our ability to confirm a cause-and-effect relationship between peak muscle force acting on bone and changes in bone strength. However, the examples presented in this review support the notion that under adequate nutrition, exercise has the potential to increase peak muscle forces acting on bone and thus can lead to a proportional increase in bone strength. In contrast, nutrition alone does not influence muscle or bone in a dose-dependent manner. Muscle and bone are only influenced when there is nutritional deficiency – and in this case the effect is profound. Similar to immobilization, the immediate effect of malnutrition is a reduction in longitudinal growth. More specifically, protein and energy malnutrition results in massive bone loss due to endosteal resorption in cortical bone and trabecular thinning. Unlike loading however, there is indirect evidence that severe malnutrition when associated with menstrual dysfunction can shift the mechanostat set point upward, thus leading to less bone accrual for a given amount of bone strain.

Short-term and long-term site-specific effects of tennis playing on trabecular and cortical bone at the distal radius

Mechanical loading during growth magnifies the normal increase in bone diameter occurring in long bone shafts, but the response to loading in long bone ends remains unclear. The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of tennis playing during growth at the distal radius, comparing the bone response at trabecular and cortical skeletal sites. The influence of training duration was examined by studying bone response in short-term (children) and long-term (young adults) perspectives. Bone area, bone mineral content (BMC), and bone mineral density (BMD) of the radius were measured by DXA in 28 young (11.6 ± 1.4 years old) and 47 adult tennis players (22.3 ± 2.7 years old), and 70 age-matched controls (12 children, 58 adults) at three sites: the ultradistal region (trabecular), the mid-distal region, and the third-distal region (cortical). At the ultradistal radius, young and adult tennis players displayed similar side-to-side differences, the asymmetry in BMC reaching 16.3% and 13.8%, respectively (P < 0.0001). At the mid- and third-distal radius, the asymmetry was much greater in adults than in children (P < 0.0001) for all the bone parameters (mid-distal radius, +6.6% versus +15.6%; third-distal radius, +6.9% versus +13.3%, for BMC). Epiphyseal bone enduring longitudinal growth showed a great capacity to respond to mechanical loading in children. Prolonging tennis playing into adulthood was associated with further increase in bone mineralization at diaphyseal skeletal sites. These findings illustrate the benefits of practicing impact-loading sports during growth and maintaining physical activity into adulthood to enhance bone mass accrual and prevent fractures later in life.

A new modelling approach to simulate preferential flow and transport in water repellent media: parameter sensitivity, and effects on crop growth and solute leaching

A modified version of the popular agrohydrological model SWAP has been used to evaluate modelling of soil water flow and crop growth at field situations in which water repellency causes preferential flow. The parameter sensitivity in such situations has been studied. Three options to model soil water flow within SWAP are described and compared: uniform flow, the classical mobile-immobile concept, and a recent concept accounting for the dynamics of finger development resulting from unstable infiltration. Data collected from a severely water-repellent affected soil located in Australia were used to compare and evaluate the usefulness of the modelling options for the agricultural management of such soils.

The study shows that an assumption of uniform flow in a water-repellent soil profile leads to an underestimation of groundwater recharge and an overestimation of plant transpiration and crop production. The new concept of modelling taking finger dynamics into account provides greater flexibility and can more accurately model the observed effects of preferential flow compared with the classical mobile–immobile concept. The parameter analysis indicates that the most important factor defining the presence and extremity of preferential flow is the critical soil water content.

Comparison of the modelling results with the Australian field data showed that without the use of a preferential flow module, the effects of the clay amendments to the soil were insufficiently reproduced in the dry matter production results. This means that the physical characteristics of the soil alone are not sufficient to explain the measured increase in production on clay amended soils. However, modelling with the module accounting for finger dynamics indicated that the preferential flow in water repellent soils that had not been treated with clay caused water stress for the crops, which would explain the decrease in production.

Modelling the relationship between defense spending and economic growth for the Fiji Islands

The goal of this paper is to examine the nexus between GDP and military expenditure. We model this relationship within a multivariate framework by including exports in the model. We use the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and find that there is a long run relationship among the variables when GDP is the endogenous variable. Normalizing on GDP and using four different estimators, we find that in the long run both military expenditure and exports have a positive impact on GDP. Finally, using the Granger causality test, we find that there is evidence for military expenditure Granger causing exports and exports Granger causing GDP, implying that military expenditure indirectly Granger causes GDP in the short run. In the long run, we find that both military expenditure and exports Granger cause GDP for Fiji. Our findings are consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, leading us to derive some policy implications.

Modelling biofilm growth and disinfectant decay in drinking water

A simple biofilm model was developed to describe the growth of bacteria in drinking water biofilms and the subsequent interactions with disinfectant residuals incorporating the important processes, such as attachment of free bacteria to the biofilm on a wall surface, detachment of bacteria from the biofilm, growth of biofilm bacteria with chloramine inhibition, chloramine decay in the bulk water phase, and chloramine decay due to biofilm bacteria and wall surfaces. The model is useful in evaluating the biological stability of different waters, as it can predict concentration of organic substances in water. In addition, the model can be used to predict the bacterial growth and biofilm decay in distribution systems. A model of this kind is a useful tool in developing system management strategies to ultimately improve drinking water quality.

Modelling urban growth futures within inner metropolitan Melbourne

In the light of the Victorian State Government's move towards the development of 'Plan Melbourne' - a new metropolitan planning strategy currently being prepared to take Melbourne forward to 2050 - the following paper attempts to address the issue of how an inner city target of 90,000 new dwellings (Inner Metropolitan Action Plan - IMAP Strategy 5) will impact on existing inner Melbourne activity centres. Working with the prospect of establishing a more compact city within the inner Melbourne region, the paper will focus on key suburbs within the Port Phillip area. Working with a 'Housing Variance Model' based on household structure and dwelling type, the paper will attempt to assess the impact on urban morphology as capacity is progressively altered through a range of built form permutations.

Can a modelling exercise be developed to aid and foster sustainable planning processes and guide the future growth of a small coastal Australian city?

Over the past few decades coastal cities around the world have grown at an incredible rate. With this growth have come major challenges relating to land use planning, social relationships, economic development, bio diversity and the ecological footprint. Three forces are working to influence the growth rate in coastal cities. They include: -population growth (i.e. the type and quantity of human demand for land), the existing and future properties of the land (i.e. current land status or changes due to nature and human activities), and finally technical changes to a land system (i.e. rezoning or the influence of other external factors). The goal of this research was to determine whether a planning framework could model the three (population growth, the existing and future properties of land and technical changes to a land system) variables in order to assist smaller councils undertaking long term land use planning decisions. The test site for the research was the City of Portland in western Victoria, Australia.

The relationship between coping and subclinical psychotic experiences in adolescents from the general population - a longitudinal study

Subclinical psychotic experiences during adolescence may represent liability for developing psychotic disorder. Both coping style and the degree of persistence of psychotic experiences may play a role in the progression to clinical psychotic disorder, but little is known about the causal relationship between the two. Path modelling was used to examine longitudinal relationships between subclinical positive psychotic experiences and three styles of coping (task-, emotion- and avoidance-oriented) in an adolescent general population sample (n=813) assessed three times in 3 years. Distinct developmental trajectories of psychotic experiences, identified with growth mixture modelling, were compared on the use of these coping styles. Over time, emotion-oriented coping in general was bi-directionally related to psychotic experiences. No meaningful results were found for task- or avoidance-oriented coping. Females reported using a wider range of coping styles than males, but the paths between coping and psychotic experiences did not differ by gender. Persistence of psychotic experiences was associated with a greater use of emotion-oriented coping, whereas a decrease in experiences over time was associated with an increased use of task-orientated coping. Emotion-oriented coping is the most important coping style in relation to psychotic experiences, as it may contribute to a 'vicious cycle' and is associated with persistence of experiences. In addition, more task-oriented coping may result in a decrease in psychotic experiences. Results suggest that opportunities for intervention may already be present at the level of subclinical psychosis.

Technical efficiency in Australian textile and clothing firms: evidence from the business longitudinal survey

This paper estimates technical efficiency of Australian textile and clothing firms based on the data obtained from the Business Longitudinal Survey (BLS) conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Using a Cobb Douglas stochastic production frontier the paper examines firm level technical efficiency in the time varying inefficiency effect model with technical inefficiency effects assumed as an independently distributed truncated normal variable. Estimates of the production frontier revealed significant but small elasticities of labour and capital for textile and clothing firms, respectively, and a negative (but insignificant) Hicks neutral technical change for both. Estimated coefficients of the explanatory variables for inefficiency effects indicated that technical efficiency varied significantly according to firms’ age, size, capital intensity, proportion of non-production to total workers and type of legal status. Predicted firm specific efficiency varied from 16 per cent to 95 per cent and mean efficiency ranged between 30 to 70 per cent. In view of these results policies have been suggested to improve technical efficiency of the firms as well as productivity growth of the sub sectors.

Growth of highly versus moderately trained competitive female artistic gymnasts

Purpose: To investigate whether growth was adversely affected in 137 young competitive female artistic gymnasts involved in different training volumes.

Methods: This was a 2-yr prospective cohort study in which height, sitting height, leg length, weight, skinfolds, and pubertal status were measured in competitive advanced (20–27 h·wk-1) and intermediate (7.5–22 h·wk-1) training level female gymnasts every 6–12 months. Biological parameters of the adolescent growth curve were estimated using the Preece–Baines growth model. Growth rates were estimated for both groups from the mixed-longitudinal data.

Results: Estimated ages at peak height velocity (PHV) (13–13.5 yr) and mean PHV (6.2–6.4 cm·yr-1) for the advanced- and intermediate-level gymnasts suggest that these gymnasts were later maturing and experienced a blunting of the growth spurt relative to reference values for U.S. youth. Comparison of growth velocities by pubertal status revealed that height velocity was lower in the advanced- versus the intermediate-level peripubertal gymnasts, which was due to a significant reduction in sitting height velocity (2.3 vs 3.1 cm·yr-1, P. < 0.05). No marked acceleration in height or sitting height velocity was detected in the advanced-level gymnasts from pre- to peripuberty. Inspection of individual growth rates revealed that over 35% of the pre- and peripubertal gymnasts experienced growth faltering (height velocity less than 4.5 cm·yr-1) during follow-up.

Conclusion: Advanced–and intermediate–training level competitive female gymnasts tend to exhibit an adolescent growth spurt that is similar in timing and tempo to short, normal, slowly maturing girls, but the high frequency of growth faltering suggests that training may alter the tempo of growth and maturation in some, but not all, female gymnasts.