Acknowledging long-term ecological change: the problem of shifting baselines

Shifting baselines describes the phenomenon where long-term changes to an environment go unrecognized because what is perceived as natural shifts with succeeding generations of scientists and other observers. This is a particular problem for the oceans because we are rarely able to directly observe the consequences of human activities. In the absence of data to track these consequences, a common assumption has been that the communities we observe today using SCUBA or other technology, are similar to the communities that existed 10, 100, or even 1000 years ago. Research is increasingly demonstrating this is not the case. Instead, marine ecosystems may have been vastly different in the past, and we have succumbed to the shifting baselines syndrome. This has significant implications for scientific study, management, and for human communities more broadly. We discuss these implications, and how we might address the shifting baseline syndrome in the oceans to confront its repercussions. In a world where environmental degradation is accelerating, doing so is critical to avoid further ratcheting down of our expectations of ecosystem health and productivity, and to ensure that we have the information necessary to implement appropriate recovery and management goals.

TMI for urban resilience : measuring and mapping long-term climate change effects on soil moisture

The effect of climate change on the shallow expansive foundation conditions of resident dwellings is costing several hundred billion dollars worldwide. The design and costs of constructing or repairing residential footings is greatly influenced by the degree of ground movement, which is driven by the magnitude of change in soil moisture. The impacts of climate change on urban infrastructure are expected to include accelerated degradation of materials and foundations of buildings and facilities, increased ground movement, changes in ground water affecting the chemical structure of foundations, and fatigue of structures from extreme storm events. Previous research found that residential houses that were built less than five years ago have suffered major cracks and other damage caused by slab movement after record rainfall. The Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) categorises climate on the basis of rainfall, temperature, potential evapotranspiration and the water holding capacity of the soil. Originally TMI was mainly used to map soil moisture conditions for agriculture but soon became a method to predict pavement and foundation changes. Few researchers have developed TMI maps for Australia, but generally, their accuracy is low or unknown, and their use is limited. The aims of this paper are: (1) To produce accurate maps of TMI for the state of Victoria for 100 years (1913 to 2012) in 20 year periods using long-term historical climatic data and advanced spatial statistics methods in GIS, and (2) Analyse the spatial and temporal changes of TMI in Victoria. Preliminary results suggest that a better understanding of climate change through long-term TMI mapping can assist urban planning and guide construction regulations towards the development of cities which are more resilient.

Long-term trends in the Australaian gannet (Morus serrator) population in Australia: the effect of climate change and commercial fisheries

The Australasian gannet (Morus serrator) population has increased considerably over the past century, both in New Zealand and Australia. Since 1980, the population in Australian waters has increased threefold, from 6,600 breeding pairs to approximately 20,000 pairs in 1999-2000, a rate of 6% per year. Reasons for the increase in the Australasian gannet population are poorly understood; here we consider the possible effects of recent fluctuations in climatic and oceanographic conditions, and changes in major local commercial fisheries. A significant trend towards more frequent, and stronger, El Niño Southern Oscillation events, warmer summer sea surface temperatures in Bass Strait, increased annual catches and catch per unit effort in the Victorian pilchard (Sardinops sagax) fishery and potential increased discarding of fisheries bycatch may account for at least some of the observed increase in the Australasian gannet population. The potential interactive effects of these factors on prey distribution and abundance and consequently on gannet numbers are discussed.

A structural events approach to examining long-term change in the Australian trade union movement, 1969-1996

Traditional studies of long-term change in trade union structure have predominantly focused on aggregate trends in union merger activity, in constructing explanations of change. This paper argues that our understanding of structural change in the Australian trade union movement would be better served by a structural events approach that examines the incidence of union formations, dissolutions, and breakaways, in addition to that of union mergers. In doing so, it outlines how these structural events can be identified and measured, and presents the preliminary findings from the methods application.

The structural events approach- A "better" way to understand long-term change in trade union structure: the Australian story (1986-96)

Traditional studies of long-term change in trade union structure have predominantly focused on aggregate trends in union merger activity in constructing explanations of change. Using the Australian trade union movement as an example, this article argues that our understanding of the long-term change in the external structure of trade unions would be better served by a structural events approach (Waddington, 1995) that examines the incidence of union formations, dissolutions, and breakaways, in addition to that of union mergers. In doing so, this article presents new data on structural change in the Australian trade union movement between 1986 and 1996, and explains the additional contribution made by union dissolutions and union formations to the reductionist effects of the merger wave that dominated these years.

Conservation cornerstones : capitalising on the endeavours of long-term monitoring projects

Ecological monitoring is widely used to measure change through time in ecosystems. The current extinction crisis has resulted in a wealth of monitoring programs focussed on tracking the status of threatened species, and the perceived importance of monitoring has seen it become the cornerstone of many biodiversity conservation programs. However, many monitoring programs fail to produce useful outcomes due to inherent flaws. Here we use a monitoring program from south-eastern Australia as a case study to illustrate the potential of such endeavours. The threatened carnivorous marsupial, the brush-tailed phascogale (Phascogale tapoatafa), has been monitored at various locations between 2000 and 2010. We present strong evidence for a decline in relative abundance during this period, and also describe relationships with environmental variables. These results provide insights likely to be valuable in guiding future management of the species. In the absence of the monitoring program, informed management would not be possible. While early detection of population declines is important, knowledge of the processes driving such declines is required for effective intervention. We argue that monitoring programs will be most effective as a tool for enhanced conservation management if they test specific hypotheses relating to changes in population trajectories. Greater emphasis should be placed on rigorous statistical analysis of monitoring datasets in order to capitalise on the resources devoted to monitoring activities. Many datasets are likely to exist for which careful analysis of results would have benefits for determining management directions.

Change in body mass associated with long-term fasting in a marine reptile : the case of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) at Ascension Island

Female green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting at Ascension Island (7°57'S, 14°22'W) in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean had a mean body mass (post oviposition) of 166.3 kg (range 107.5–243.5 kg, n = 119). Individuals lost mass slowly during the nesting season (mean mass loss 0.22 kg·d–1, n = 14 individuals weighed more than once). Gut-content analysis and behavioural observations indicated a lack of feeding. Females of equivalent-sized pinniped species that also do not feed while reproducing (nursing pups) on islands lose mass about 17 times faster. This comparatively low rate of mass loss by green turtles probably reflects their ectothermic nature and, consequently, their low metabolic rate. We estimate that a female turtle would lose only 19% of her body mass during the 143-day, 4400-km round trip from Brazil if she did not eat, laid 3 clutches of eggs, and lost 0.22 kg·d–.

Employing sea-level rise scenarios to strategically select sea turtle nesting habitat important for long-term management at a temperate breeding area

Management strategies to protect endangered species primarily focus on safeguarding habitats currently perceived as important (due to high-density use, rarity or contribution to the biological cycle), rather than sites of future ecological importance. This discrepancy is particularly relevant for species inhabiting beaches and coastal areas that may be lost due to sea-level rise over the next 100 years through climate change. Here, we modelled four sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios (0.2, 0.6, 0.9 and 1.3 m) to determine the future vulnerability and viability of nesting habitat (six distinct nesting beaches totalling about 6 km in length) at a key loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) rookery (Zakynthos, Greece) in the Mediterranean. For each of the six nesting beaches, we identified (1) the area of beach currently used by turtles, (2) the area of the beach anticipated to become inundated under each SLR, (3) the area of beach anticipated to become unsuitable for nesting under each SLR, (4) the potential for habitat loss under the examined SLR, and (5) the extent to which the beaches may shift in relation to natural (i.e. cliffs) and artificial (i.e. beach front development) physical barriers. Even under the most conservative 0.2 m SLR scenario, about 38% (range: 31–48%) total nesting beach area would be lost, while an average 13% (range: 7–17%) current nesting beach area would be lost. About 4 km length of nesting habitat (representing 85% of nesting activity) would be lost under the 0.9 m scenario, because cliffs prevent landward beach migration. In comparison, while the other 2 km of beach (representing 15% nests) is also at high risk, it has the capacity for landward migration, because of an adjoining sand-dune system. Therefore, managers should strengthen actions on this latter area, as a climatically critical safeguard for future sea turtle nesting activity, in parallel to regularly assessing and revising measures on the current high-use nesting habitats of this important Mediterranean loggerhead population.

Short- and long-term effects of habitat fragmentation differ but are predicted by response to the matrix

Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Our current understanding of the impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation is based largely on studies that focus on either short-term or long-term responses. Short-term responses are often used to predict long-term responses and make management decisions. The lack of studies comparing short- and long-term responses to fragmentation means we do not adequately understand when and how well short-term responses can be extrapolated to predict long-term responses, and when or why they cannot. To address this gap, we used data from one of the world's longest-running fragmentation experiments, The Wog Wog Habitat Fragmentation Experiment. Using data for carabid beetles, we found that responses in the long term (more than 22 years post-fragmentation ~ 22 generations) often contrasted markedly with those in the short term (five years post-fragmentation). The total abundance of all carabids, species richness and the occurrence of six species declined in the short term in the fragments but increased over the long term. The occurrence of three species declined initially and continued to decline, whilst another species was positively affected initially but decreased in the long term. Species' responses to the matrix that surrounds the fragments strongly predicted both the direction (increase/decline in occurrence) and magnitude of their responses to fragmentation. Additionally, species' responses to the matrix were somewhat predicted by their preferences for different types of native habitat (open vs. shaded). Our study highlights the degree of the matrix's influence in fragmented landscapes, and how this influence can change over time. We urge caution in using short-term responses to forecast long-term responses in cases where the matrix a) impacts species' responses to fragmentation (by isolating them, creating new habitat or altering fragment habitat) and b) is likely to change through time. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Long-term effects of calcium-vitamin-D3-fortified milk on bone geometry and strength in older men

The long-term effects of calcium and vitamin D supplementation on bone material and structural properties in older men are not known. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of high calcium (1000 mg/day)- and vitamin-D3 (800 IU/day)-fortified milk on cortical and trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD) and bone geometry at the axial and appendicular skeleton in men aged over 50 years. One hundred and eleven men who were part of a larger 2-year randomized controlled trial had QCT scans of the mid-femur and lumbar spine (L1–L3) to assess vBMD, bone geometry and indices of bone strength [polar moment of inertia (Ipolar)]. After 2 years, there were no significant differences between the milk supplementation and control group for the change in any mid-femur or L1–L3 bone parameters for all men aged over 50 years. However, the mid-femur skeletal responses to the fortified milk varied according to age, with a split of ≤62 versus >62 years being the most significant for discriminating the changes between the two groups. Subsequent analysis revealed that, in the older men (>62 years), the expansion in mid-femur medullary area was 2.8% (P < 0.01) less in the milk supplementation compared to control group, which helped to preserve cortical area in the milk supplementation group (between group difference 1.1%, P < 0.01). Similarly, for mid-femur cortical vBMD and Ipolar, the net loss was 2.3 and 2.8% less in the milk supplementation compared to control group (P < 0.01 and <0.001, respectively). In conclusion, calcium–vitamin-D3-fortified milk may represent an effective strategy to maintain bone strength by preventing endocortical bone loss and slowing the loss in cortical vBMD in elderly men.

Long-term flowering patterns of melliferous Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) species

The flowering patterns of 28 Victorian melliferous (honey-producing) eucalypts were investigated by using long-term observations of highly experienced, commercial apiarists. Frequency, timing, duration and intensity of flowering were determined, as were spatial differences within and among species. Data were obtained by face-to-face interviews with 25 Victorian apiarists, each of whom had operated a minimum of 350 hives for a minimum of 30 years. Flowering frequency ranged from 1 to 7 years, and most species flowered once every 2–4 years. Long-term flowering frequency, timing and duration were reported as constant, although short-term perturbations could occur. Most melliferous species flowered during spring and summer for a period of 3 months or more. Only few species had shorter flowering periods. Information provided by apiarists compared well with available published information (e.g. flowering period reported in field guides) and revealed a reliable, largely untapped source of long-term data, the use of which could benefit many ecological research endeavours.

Making long-term economic growth more sustainable: evaluating the costs and benefits

Currently, traditional development issues such as economic stagnation, poverty, hunger, and illness as well as newer challenges like environmental degradation and globalisation demand attention. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decisionmakers. Optimal economic growth has also been a crucial goal of both development theorists and practitioners. This paper examines the conditions under which optimal growth might be sustainable, by assessing the costs and benefits of growth. Key environmental and social aspects are considered. The Ecol-Opt-Growth-1 model analyses economic–ecological interactions, including resource depletion, pollution, irreversibility, other environmental effects, and uncertainty. It addresses some important issues, including savings, investment, technical progress, substitutability of productive factors, intergenerational efficiency, equity, and policies to make economic growth more sustainable—a basic element of the sustainomics framework. The empirical results support growing concerns that costs of growth may outweigh its benefits, resulting in unsustainability. Basically, in a wide range of circumstances, long term economic growth is unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage. Nevertheless, the model has many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable, as advocated by sustainomics. One example suggests that government supported abatement programs are needed to move towards sustainable development, since the model runs without abatement were infeasible. The optimal rate of abatement increases over time. Abatement of pollution is necessary to improve ecosystem viability and increase sustainability. Further research is necessary to seek conditions under which alternative economic growth paths are likely to become sustainable.

Study protocol for the translating research in elder care (TREC): Building context through case studies in long-term care project (project two)

Background: The organizational context in which healthcare is delivered is thought to play an important role in mediating the use of knowledge in practice. Additionally, a number of potentially modifiable contextual factors have been shown to make an organizational context more amenable to change. However, understanding of how these factors operate to influence organizational context and knowledge use remains limited. In particular, research to understand knowledge translation in the long-term care setting is scarce. Further research is therefore required to provide robust explanations of the characteristics of organizational context in relation to knowledge use.
Aim: To develop a robust explanation of the way organizational context mediates the use of knowledge in practice in long-term care facilities.
Design: This is longitudinal, in-depth qualitative case study research using exploratory and interpretive methods to explore the role of organizational context in influencing knowledge translation. The study will be conducted in two phases. In phase one, comprehensive case studies will be conducted in three facilities. Following data analysis and proposition development, phase two will continue with focused case studies to elaborate emerging themes and theory. Study sites will be purposively selected. In both phases, data will be collected using a variety of approaches, including non-participant observation, key informant interviews, family perspectives, focus groups, and documentary evidence (including, but not limited to, policies, notices, and photographs of physical resources). Data analysis will comprise an iterative process of identifying convergent evidence within each case study and then examining and comparing the evidence across multiple case studies to draw conclusions from the study as a whole. Additionally, findings that emerge through this project will be compared and considered alongside those that are emerging from project one. In this way, pattern matching based on explanation building will be used to frame the analysis and develop an explanation of organizational context and knowledge use over time. An improved understanding of the contextual factors that mediate knowledge use will inform future development and testing of interventions to enhance knowledge use, with the ultimate aim of improving the outcomes for residents in long-term care settings.

The importance of long-term follow-up in child and adolescent obesity prevention interventions

Pediatric overweight and obesity continues to be a major public health concern. Once established it is diffi cult to treat; therefore well-designed and evaluated prevention interventions are vitally important. There is considerable evidence to suggest that obesity prevention initiatives can change children ’ s behaviours and weight status over the short- or mediumterm; however, there is far less evidence on which to judge the impact over the longer term. In response to the rise in short- and medium-term obesity prevention studies for children and adolescents over recent years, the Prevention Stream of the Australasian Child and Adolescent Obesity Research Network highlight fi ve points as to why the dearth of obesity prevention studies with long-term follow-up should be urgently addressed. Furthermore, recommendations to strengthen the evidence base and outline key implications for research design in this area and the support required for long-term follow-up studies are detailed.

Long-term species, sexual and individual variations in foraging strategies of fur seals revealed by stable isotopes in whiskers

Background: Individual variations in the use of the species niche are an important component of diversity in trophic interactions. A challenge in testing consistency of individual foraging strategy is the repeated collection of information on the same individuals.

Methodology/Principal Findings: The foraging strategies of sympatric fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella and A. tropicalis) were examined using the stable isotope signature of serially sampled whiskers. Most whiskers exhibited synchronous delta C-13 and delta N-15 oscillations that correspond to the seal annual movements over the long term (up to 8 years). delta C-13 and delta N-15 values were spread over large ranges, with differences between species, sexes and individuals. The main segregating mechanism operates at the spatial scale. Most seals favored foraging in subantarctic waters (where the Crozet Islands are located) where they fed on myctophids. However, A. gazella dispersed in the Antarctic Zone and A. tropicalis more in the subtropics. Gender differences in annual time budget shape the seal movements. Males that do not perform any parental care exhibited large isotopic oscillations reflecting broad annual migrations, while isotopic values of females confined to a limited foraging range during lactation exhibited smaller changes. Limited inter-individual isotopic variations occurred in female seals and in male A. tropicalis. In contrast, male A. gazella showed large inter-individual variations, with some males migrating repeatedly to high-Antarctic waters where they fed on krill, thus meaning that individual specialization occurred over years.

Conclusions/Significance: Whisker isotopic signature yields unique long-term information on individual behaviour that integrates the spatial, trophic and temporal dimensions of the ecological niche. The method allows depicting the entire realized niche of the species, including some of its less well-known components such as age-, sex-, individual- and migration-related changes. It highlights intrapopulation heterogeneity in foraging strategies that could have important implications for likely demographic responses to environmental variability.