Application of the gradient boosted method in randomised clinical trials: participant variables that contribute to depression treatment efficacy of duloxetine, SSRIs or placebo

Randomised, placebo-controlled trials of treatments for depression typically collect outcomes data but traditionally only analyse data to demonstrate efficacy and safety. Additional post-hoc statistical techniques may reveal important insights about treatment variables useful when considering inter-individual differences amongst depressed patients. This paper aims to examine the Gradient Boosted Model (GBM), a statistical technique that uses regression tree analyses and can be applied to clinical trial data to identify and measure variables that may influence treatment outcomes.

The discovery of generalized causal models with mixed variables using MML criterion

One major difficulty frustrating the application of linear causal models is that they are not easily adapted to cope with discrete data. This is unfortunate since most real problems involve both continuous and discrete variables. In this paper, we consider a class of graphical models which allow both continuous and discrete variables, and propose the parameter estimation method and a structure discovery algorithm based on Minimum Message Length and parameter estimation. Experimental results are given to demonstrate the potential for the application of this method.

The link between judgements of comparative risk and own risk: Further evidence

Individuals typically believe that they are less likely than the average person to experience negative events, a phenomenon termed “unrealistic optimism”. The direct method of assessing unrealistic optimism employs a question of the form, “Compared with the average person, what is the chance that X will occur to you?”. However, it has been proposed that responses to such a question (direct-estimates) are based essentially just on estimates that X will occur to the self (self-estimates). If this is so, any factors that affect one of these estimates should also affect the other. This prediction was tested in two experiments. In each, direct- and self-estimates for an unfamiliar health threat—homocysteine-related heart problems—were recorded. It was found that both types of estimate were affected in the same way by varying the stated probability of having unsafe levels of homocysteine (Study 1, N = 149) and varying the stated probability that unsafe levels of homocysteine will lead to heart problems (Study 2, N = 111). The results are consistent with the proposal that direct-estimates are constructed just from self-estimates.

Interobserver reproducibility of histopathologic prognostic variables in primary cutaneous melanomas

Background: The prognosis for patients with localized primary cutaneous melanoma is known to depend principally on tumor thickness, and to a lesser extent on ulcerative state and Clark level. We have recently found in an analysis of 3661 patients that tumor mitotic rate (TMR) is also an important prognostic parameter, ranking second only to tumor thickness. However, few studies have assessed the accuracy and reproducibility with which these features of a melanoma are recorded by histopathologists.
Aim: To assess interobserver reproducibility of major pathologic prognostic parameters in cutaneous melanoma.
Methods: Single hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides of 69 dermally invasive primary cutaneous melanomas were circulated among six pathologists with differing experience in the assessment of melanocytic tumors. The observers independently determined the tumor thickness, Clark level of invasion, ulcerative state, and TMR for each lesion. Intraclass correlation coefficients and kappa scores for multiple ratings per subject were calculated.
Results: The intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.96 for tumor thickness and 0.76 for TMR. The kappa scores were 0.83 for ulcerative state and 0.60 for Clark level. These results indicated excellent agreement among the pathologists for measurements of tumor thickness, ulcerative state, and TMR and fair to good agreement for Clark level.
Conclusions: Appropriately trained and experienced histopathologists can assess prognostically important features of melanomas accurately and reproducibly. Given our recent finding of the significance of TMR in determining prognosis, it is important that this feature be assessed by a standardized method and documented for all primary cutaneous melanomas.

Dynamic output feedback control of single-link flexible manipulators

This paper presents an efficient technique to design dynamic feedback control scheme for single-link flexible manipulators.  A linear model can be derived for the robotic system using the assumed-mode method.  Conventional techniques such as pole-placement or LQR require physical measurements of all systme states,  posing a stringent requirement for its implementation.  To overcome this problem, a low-order state functional observer is proposed here for reconstruction of the state feedback control action.  The observer design involves solving an optimisation problem with the objective to generate a feedback gain that is as close as possible to that of the required feedback controller.  A condition for robust stability of the closed-loop system under the observer-based control scheme is given.  The attractive features of the propsed technique are the resulted functional state observer is of a very low order and it requires only sensor measurements of only the output- the tip position of the arm.

Bayesian classification of catchments using spatial data: a first step to improved modelling of catchment effects on stream ecological condition

A major challenge facing freshwater ecologists and managers is the development of models that link stream ecological condition to catchment scale effects, such as land use. Previous attempts to make such models have followed two general approaches. The bottom-up approach employs mechanistic models, which can quickly become too complex to be useful. The top-down approach employs empirical models derived from large data sets, and has often suffered from large amounts of unexplained variation in stream condition.

We believe that the lack of success of both modelling approaches may be at least partly explained by scientists considering too wide a breadth of catchment type. Thus, we believe that by stratifying large sets of catchments into groups of similar types prior to modelling, both types of models may be improved. This paper describes preliminary work using a Bayesian classification software package, ‘Autoclass’ (Cheeseman and Stutz 1996) to create classes of catchments within the Murray Darling Basin based on physiographic data.

Autoclass uses a model-based classification method that employs finite mixture modelling and trades off model fit versus complexity, leading to a parsimonious solution. The software provides information on the posterior probability that the classification is ‘correct’ and also probabilities for alternative classifications. The importance of each attribute in defining the individual classes is calculated and presented, assisting description of the classes. Each case is ‘assigned’ to a class based on membership probability, but the probability of membership of other classes is also provided. This feature deals very well with cases that do not fit neatly into a larger class. Lastly, Autoclass requires the user to specify the measurement error of continuous variables.

Catchments were derived from the Australian digital elevation model. Physiographic data werederived from national spatial data sets. There was very little information on measurement errors for the spatial data, and so a conservative error of 5% of data range was adopted for all continuous attributes. The incorporation of uncertainty into spatial data sets remains a research challenge.

The results of the classification were very encouraging. The software found nine classes of catchments in the Murray Darling Basin. The classes grouped together geographically, and followed altitude and latitude gradients, despite the fact that these variables were not included in the classification. Descriptions of the classes reveal very different physiographic environments, ranging from dry and flat catchments (i.e. lowlands), through to wet and hilly catchments (i.e. mountainous areas). Rainfall and slope were two important discriminators between classes. These two attributes, in particular, will affect the ways in which the stream interacts with the catchment, and can thus be expected to modify the effects of land use change on ecological condition. Thus, realistic models of the effects of land use change on streams would differ between the different types of catchments, and sound management practices will differ.

A small number of catchments were assigned to their primary class with relatively low probability. These catchments lie on the boundaries of groups of catchments, with the second most likely class being an adjacent group. The locations of these ‘uncertain’ catchments show that the Bayesian classification dealt well with cases that do not fit neatly into larger classes.

Although the results are intuitive, we cannot yet assess whether the classifications described in this paper would assist the modelling of catchment scale effects on stream ecological condition. It is most likely that catchment classification and modelling will be an iterative process, where the needs of the model are used to guide classification, and the results of classifications used to suggest further refinements to models.

The relationship between emotional state and other variables influencing successful reintegration of ex-prisoners

This study investigated the multiple, complex, dynamic and interactive variables influencing successful reintegration of ex-prisoners, with a particular focus on the role of emotional state in the reintegration process. This involved conduct of a survey to a large group of prisoners approaching release and subsequently following release from prisons in Victoria and Queensland. Participants were 101 adult prisoners who completed a pre-release questionnaire one month prior to their release that focused on prison-related variables, participant background, and anticipated conditions upon release. A post-release questionnaire was administered to the same participants at one to four weeks and three to four months post-release, focusing on the quality of life conditions experienced following release. As well, the Beck Depression Inventory, Beck Anxiety Inventory, and the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory were completed at each interview. Of interest, was the level and degree of change in prisoner ratings of depression, anxiety, and anger at pre-release and extending over the post-release period. As well, the strength of relationship between emotional state and the main variables influencing reintegration was investigated; that is, the degree to which reintegration variables (such as social support, drug use, post-release program participation, rated health) are associated with depression, anxiety, and anger among ex-prisoners. The report commences with the description of an ecological model of community reintegration that enables the main variables that may influence reintegration of ex-prisoners to be easily conceptualised and understood. A review of the international and Australian literature relevant to community reintegration of ex-prisoners is then presented, consistent with this conceptual framework, with a specific emphasis on the role of emotional state in post-release outcomes for this group. In the second section, the study design and method are described, with the results presented in the third section. The fourth and final section of the report includes a discussion of the results, implications for reintegration theory, and practical implications for promoting successful reintegration of ex-prisoners.

Multiphase material modelling by multiscale particle-in-cell method

A particle-based method for multiscale modeling of multiphase materials such as Dual Phase (DP) and Transformation Induced Plasticity (TRIP) steels has been developed. The multiscale Particle-In-Cell (PIC) method benefits from the many advantages of the FEM and mesh-free methods, and to bridge the micro and macro scales through homogenization. The conventional mesh-based modeling methods fail to give reasonable and accurate predictions for materials with complex microstructures. Alternatively in the multiscale PIC method, the Lagrangian particles moving in an Eulerian grid represent the material deformation at both the micro and macro scales. The uniaxial tension test of two phase and three-phase materials was simulated and compared with FE based simulations. The predictions using multiscale PIC method showed that accuracy of field variables could be improved by up to 7%. This can lead to more accurate forming and springback predictions for materials with important multiphase microstructural effects.

Relationship between alcohol abuse upper gastro-intestinal haemorrhage and nutritional status during acute hospital admission

This thesis is concerned with the effect of alcohol consumption on the pathogenesis of bleeding from the upper gastrointestinal tract via nutritional pathways. Altered nutritional status is a frequently recognised clinical accompaniement of heavy alcohol consumption in hospitalized patients. Similarly, upper gastrointestinal bleeding is frequently accompanied by the presence of heavy alcohol consumption. Nevertheless, the clinical quantification of alcohol intake is often descriptive, so that a link between alcohol use and upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage via nutritional mechanisms has been only generally defined. In the literature review, the methods of defining alcohol use and abuse, using interview, biochemical and haematological techniques are noted. The relationship between alcohol abuse and nutrient imbalances is reviewed, especially in relation to possible effects on the gastrointestinal tract, appetite and eating habits. A further section reviews the relationship between alcohol use and anatomical lesions of the upper gastrointestinal tract likely to lead to bleeding. Following the chapter in which the methods used in this thesis are described. Chapter 4 seeks to describe the study population and its subgroups in this thesis in relation to interview, biochemical and haematological methods. Alcohol use is defined in relation to (1) a clinical classification of heavy or light drinking, based on a questionnaire administered in Casualty, (2) a quantified method of determining alcohol consumption during a subsequent ward dietetic assessment, (3) in relation to a biochemical definition (recent drinking and non-drinking), and a classification of (1) and (2) called, for the purposes of this thesis, 'alcohol abusers' and 'nonabusers'. Heavy, regular and recent drinkers and alcohol abusers tend to be male and younger than light, infrequent and nonrecent drinkers and nonabusers. Chapter 5 relates the nutritional status of those patients admitted acutely to hospital in relation to the groups defined in Chapter 4, Nutritional status is defined in terms of food intake, anthropometry, biochemical and haematological parameters. Different methods of defining alcohol use give rise to different patterns of nutritional impairment. Chapter 6 relates the nutritional status of those patients admitted acutely to hospital in relation to the presence or absence of an endoscopically defined site of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. A difference is seen between those bleeding from a Mailory-weiss tear and other sites of bleeding, similarly, biochemical differences in nutritional status emerge between those patients who presented in shock, and those who did not. Chapter 7 explores the relationships between biochemical markers of nutritional status and haemostatic variables in the groups of abusers/non-abusers, the various sites of primary bleeding/controls, and shock/non-shock. Serum copper appears to be related to altered haemostasis in a manner not apparently described elsewhere.

Incorporating design explanation within formal object-oriented method (FOOM)

Requirements engineering is a commencing phase in the development of either software applications or information systems. It is concerned with understanding and specifying the customer's requirements of the system to be delivered. Throughout the literature, this is agreed to be one of the most crucial and, unfortunately, problematic phases in development. Despite the diversity of research directions, approaches and methods, the question of process understanding and management is still limited. Among contemporary approaches to the improvement of the current practice of Requirements Engineering, Formal Object-Oriented Method (FOOM) has been introduced as a new promising solution. The FOOM approach to requirements engineering is based on a synthesis of socio-organisational theory, the object-oriented approach, and mathematical formal specification. The entire FOOM specification process is evolutionary and involves a large volume of changes in requirements. During this process, requirements evolve through various forms of informal, semi-formal, and formal while maintaining a semantic link between these forms and, most importantly, conforming to the customer's requirements. A deep understanding of the complexity of the requirements model and its dynamics is critical in improving requirements engineering process management. This thesis investigates the benefits of documenting both the evolution of the requirements model and the rationale for that evolution. Design explanation explains and justifies the deliberations of, and decisions made during, the design activity. In this thesis, design explanation is used to describe the requirements engineering process in order to improve understandability of, and traceability within, the evolving requirements specification. The design explanation recorded during this research project is also useful in assisting the researcher in gaining insights into the creativity and opportunistic characteristics of the requirements engineering process. This thesis offers an interpretive investigation into incorporating design explanation within FOOM in order to extend and advantage the method. The researcher's interpretation and analysis of collected data highlight an insight-driven and opportunistic process rather than a strictly and systematically predefined one. In fact, the process was not smoothly evolutionary, but involved occasional 'crisis' points at which the model was reconceptualised, simplified and restructured. Therefore, contributions of the thesis lie not only in an effective incorporation of design explanation within FOOM, but also a deep understanding of the dynamic process of requirements engineering. The new understanding of the complexity of the requirements model and its dynamics suggests new directions for future research and forms a basis for a new approach to process management.

Changing bodies, changing discourses : women's experiences of early menopause

Early menopause has been constructed by discourses of biological determinism as an untimely, but natural, failure of the female body. Medical discourses in particular have interpreted early menopause as a congenital irregularity and a rare anomaly of menopause at midlife. In this thesis I challenge the notion that early menopause is an innate imperfection related only to women’s age. I propose that early menopause is dependent upon the cultural interpretations of individual women and is constituted through the mercurial and multiple discourses of women who have this embodied experience. Moreover, I reveal that early menopause is a contemporary condition and that its location in history is inextricably bound to discourses of risk, naturalism and the self. Further I make the assumption that having an early menopause both affects and is an effect of women’s fertility, sexuality and subjectivity. I have drawn upon a broad range of sources to provide a sociological analysis of early menopause. Literature on early menopause is dominated by positivist discourses, yet many alternate discourses negotiate these influential constructions. I suggest here that the perception of early menopause as a natural fault is merely a construction by medical discourses and does not incorporate the dynamic discourses of early-menopausal women. Moreover, the restriction of early menopause to a genetic female failure excludes the majority of women who have an early menopause through iatrogenisis. This omission occurs through the failure of positivist discourses to accommodate diversity in discourses. Recent sociological and feminist studies have vindicated menopausal women. They have reconstructed menopause through notions of embodiment and have removed the veil of negativity used by the medical sciences to contain menopausal women (Komesaroff, Rothfield and Daly 1997). The visibility of menopausal women, however, remains connected to age. Menopause has been created as a predictable consequence of aging and as such has come to be synonymous with middle age. Nowadays, even men are said to experience menopause at midlife (Carruthers 1996). But early menopause is constituted within the discourses of women who have this experience. Medico-scientific discourses, based upon theories of genetic inevitability, disregard this perspective. Consequently early menopause is subsumed by naturalistic discourses that relate menopause to midlife. Such restraint reflects the unease created by menopause that does not coincide with prescribed life stages. Women's experiences of their changing bodies are largely unheard. Thus, women who have an early menopause are faced with a chasm of ‘cultural non-recognition’ (Fraser 1997). Conjointly with this discursive repression early-menopausal women face social imbalances that are transacted as both cause and consequence of early menopause. In particular the contemporary creation of early menopause is bound to the social and historical location of women as a group. Women are exploited by the institution of medicine, ‘exposure to environmental toxicity’ (Fraser 1997: 11) and commercialization as causes of early menopause. Yet the corporeal effects of practices of risk avoidance (Beck 1993), social practices (Shilling 1993) and Western consumerism (Lupton 1994) fail to be recognized. I address these problematics through a poststructural and feminist critique that assumes moments of commonality among women, while at the same time recognizes shifting and multiple differences (Nicholson 1999). I suggest here that early menopause falls into cultural misrecognition in Fraser's (1997) terms and argue that it is united concurrently with the gender injustice of androcentrism (Fraser 1997: 21). Fraser (1997: 16) suggests that it is only by relating these dual problematics that we are able to make sense of current dilemmas. Thus I have critiqued early menopause through a connection between individual embodied experiences of early menopause and early menopause as a modern phenomenon that is specific to women. I have attempted to unravel these arguments that simultaneously call to ‘... abolish gender differentiation and to valorize gender specificity’ (Fraser 1997: 21) while at the same time acknowledging their interconnectedness. An approach of merely combining women’s discourses with overarching social issues would be inadequate as not only do these problematics intersect but they also can be opposed. As Fraser (1997: 25) notes with her theory, redressing one aspect of cultural or social analysis can further imbalance another. For instance making visible the diversity and uniqueness of individual experiences of early menopause could detract from acknowledging the contemporary construction of early menopause through social inequality. Crucial to this understanding is a destabilizing of the binary construction of differences between the sexes that makes way for a reconstruction of early menopause through ‘sexual slippage’ (Matus 1995). In this thesis I look for a subtlety between the particular and the collective that views early menopause as concurrently a singular and changeable experience as well as imbedded in social practice. I suggest that these concepts are entwined as interactive effects of early menopause. Thus I have analyzed the bivalent problematics of the embodiment and social location of early menopause as imbricated, dynamic and unending discourses. From this perspective I reviewed the literature that was available on early menopause. In Chapter One I look to descriptions of early menopause and note that it has disappeared into a conglomeration of disparate, mostly medical, discourses that are contradictory. Nevertheless medical discourses offer ‘conclusive’ definitions of early menopause that are based on naturalistic views of the body (Shilling 1994). The determinants used are inconsistent and do not include women's discourses of early menopause. Thus, dominant medical discourses obscure women’s embodied experiences of early menopause and ignore the contemporary causes of early menopause. In Chapter Two I examine the causes of early menopause as a way of explaining the disparity between medical discourses and my anecdotal observations of early menopause as a fairly common contemporary occurrence. The relatively recent escalation in gynaecological surgery, especially hysterectomy, appears to account almost single-handedly for early menopause as a current phenomenon. Moreover, the extraordinary number of women who have their uterus removed at hysterectomy can be interpreted as a modern implementation of ancient anxieties. Women's sexuality has been constructed throughout history as problematic and this unease has been translated through women's bodies as dangerous and in need of control (Greer 1992). Thus social concerns which have evolved historically have emerged through the representation of a woman's uterus as an unseen, dark and mysterious risk (Beck 1993). Medical discourses define this risk and are able to negate the so-called dangers of women's sexuality through the surgical removal of their organs. Widespread negotiation of medical discourses is apparent, as hysterectomy in the modern Western world is the most common of all surgical operations (Hufnagel 1989). It is overwhelmingly the most common cause of early menopause as well. I examine also the historical condemnation of infertile women and how this anxiety has been transposed to the modern world through the commercialization of reproduction. Transactions of this social unease can cause early menopause. For instance the medical technology of in-vitro fertilization (I.V.F.) has been offered as a panacea for the infertility of early menopause but, paradoxically, can cause early menopause as well. Conception through technology has been normalized as a viable option for women who are unable to conceive and understandings of I.V.F. have moved into everyday discourse. Medical discourses have constructed fertility as a saleable item and infertile women expect that they can purchase this merchandise. Human eggs have become lucrative commodities that now are available in the market place. Egg ‘donation’ for I.V.F. programs can hasten the attrition rate of eggs and can cause early menopause in some pre-menopausal women (Rowland 1992: 24). Even the recycling of a woman’s uterus supposedly has become a possibility through the transferring of this ‘used’ organ at hysterectomy to a recipient woman who can use the other woman’s uterus as a ‘gestational garage’ (Rogers 1998). In this way women have been disembodied as mechanical systems with inter-changeable body parts and the potentially detrimental consequences of these commercial transactions are ignored. In addition I show how early menopause can be caused by the connection between the self and the social structure. Women's subjectivity is constituted through the cultural discourses available to them and these discourses affect social behaviour (Lupton 1995). For instance smoking and dieting have been identified as causes of early menopause. These activities have been related to the creation of women’s bodies as hetero-sexually desirable and are endemic to young women (Evans-Young 1995). This suggests that cultural causes of early menopause are transactions of sexual politics. Yet there is a paucity of literature that acknowledges the relationship between women’s subjectivity and early menopause. Thus the second chapter exposes a link between sexual politics and causes of early menopause through women's relationships with risk, naturalism and the self. In Chapter Three I deconstruct early menopause through theoretical considerations. I rely on an overarching poststructuralism that embraces the concept of fragmented plural discourses and the subjectivity of menopausal women as a continuous process (Komesaroff 1997: 61). I have woven these variables through broad feminist critiques (Leonard 1997). Through this eclectic approach I hoped to find some loose alignment between the corporeal, ontological and embodied dimensions of early menopause. The recurring themes of sexuality, fertility and subjectivity emerge through deconstructing discourses of sexual difference as immutable and non-negotiable; exposing ‘premature ovarian failure’ as a discursive construction that censures early-menopausal women; and acknowledging the discourses of individual women as unique, diverse and dynamic. I looked to a method of exposing some of these individual discourses and in Chapter Four I describe a critical research process aimed at understanding early menopause as a lived experience. In the remaining chapters I align these ontological arguments with an analysis of the discourses of women who had experienced or were experiencing an early menopause. This section partly relieves the ‘cultural non-recognition’ of the discourses of early-menopausal women. I recorded the narratives of fifty early-menopausal women through in-depth interviews and used this empirical data to direct the study. This data provides the opportunity to understand early menopause as an assortment of embodied experiences. For instance women’s experiences of age at commencement of menopause spanned over three and half decades. They did not reflect the age specifications prescribed by medical discourses. Rather women interpreted their experiences within their own discourses and determined their menopause as early based upon the expectations of their cultural context. Many of the women experienced changes attributed to menopause at midlife. It was not these changes that were significant to early-menopausal women it was how each woman translated these changes that provided meanings of early menopause. In Chapter Five I introduce the women through a table that connects the varying experiences of each woman. This profile shows that, in the main, the women’s experiences of early menopause were unexpected. I suggest that this is due to the disparity between early-menopausal women’s experiences and the current age and social norms of menopause. By bracketing the women into cohorts patterns emerged displaying differences between women who had menopause in their teens, twenties, thirties and forties. Adolescent women had intense feelings of abnormality and despair. Women who were in their twenties were less devastated by menopause than the younger women but described their sexuality and self-identity as changing. And although some women in their thirties were shocked or dismayed to have an early menopause others were ambivalent or happy. These women also described their sexuality and self-identity through changing discourses. A number of the women who were in their forties said that they were ‘too young for the menopause’ but were far less despondent than the younger women. It seemed that the greater the distance between age norms and social norms the more negatively women responded. Age norms that determine the social norms of women's lives through a ‘biological clock’ are constructed to reflect social values. But age is a social construction that changes over time. Thus it would appear that women’s changing bodies and changing discourses of early menopause are in the process of recreating age and social norms around menopause. In Chapter Six I draw upon women’s narratives that describe a connection between early menopause and sexuality. Yet the respondents were not unified in their constructions of sexuality. For instance a number of the women rejected the containment of their sexuality as absolute and defined in terms of bi-lateral hetero-sexual opposition. The discourses of these women constructed their sexuality as continuously flexible. Some early-menopausal women described this sexual mobility as an equivocal relationship between their sexuality, reproductive capacity and female organs. Other women articulated their sexuality as vacillating, ambiguous and unrepresentative of the so-called ‘true woman’. Several felt that they were not meant to have female reproductive organs at all. Nearly one third of the women had had their uterus removed at hysterectomy and the reproductive organs of two women were rudimentary. Women’s narratives showed that the social value of fertility influences constructions of early menopause. In Chapter Seven I record the contrast between the poignant responses of women who wished to have a baby of their own and other women who resisted discourses that entwine reproductivity with being a woman. For instance some women negotiated fertility through economic discourses of consumerism with the expectation that they could purchase conception as a commodity. Other women welcomed their early menopause as freedom from contraceptive concerns and others had no interest in reproduction at all. Thus discord arose through discourses that problematize early-menopausal women as non-reproductive and discourses that value variability. In addition many of the women’s accounts constructed their subjectivity as mobile, challenging the notion that discourses of the self are immutable. Chapter Eight presents narratives which suggest that the subjectivity of many women was altered continuously by early menopause. Yet some of the women rejected the construction of their subjectivity as unfluctuating. These contradictions reflect the uncertainties of the contemporary world. Nevertheless most respondents found that the tethering of menopause to constructions of midlife was incongruous with their own experiences. Many women refused to accept the label of social redundancy attached to middle-aged women. They moved their subjectivity beyond the reproductive body to a shifting and tractable identity of the self. This thesis demonstrates that the medical construction of early menopause as a rare and natural female flaw varies from women's experiences which suggest that early menopause is common and discursively constructed. This disparity has occurred through the privilege placed upon the construction of bodies as immutable and sexually static. This privileging has obscured the multi-dimensional causes of early menopause and given preference to a mono-causal theory. By exposing the variety of causes of early menopause the medical construction of women through a universal and unalterable body of reproduction is challenged. Moreover, women's discourses of early menopause demonstrate that the medical reduction of early menopause to a spontaneous bio-chemical malfunction has ignored the volatility of women’s embodied experiences. Women experience early menopause variously and through mercurial discourses. I suggest here that women's discourses of their experiences of early menopause reflect recurring and restructuring philosophical quandaries of fertility, sexuality and subjectivity. While there can be no representative claims made from this thesis it contributes to an understanding of the embodied experiences of early menopause. It provides an understanding of the creation of early menopause through social practices and goes part way to redressing the problematics of what Fraser terms ‘cultural non-recognition’. But, more importantly, it acknowledges early menopause as a variety of experiences where women interpret their changing bodies through changing discourses.

Selection of working correlation structure and best model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data

The Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) method is one of the most commonly used statistical methods for the analysis of longitudinal data in epidemiological studies. A working correlation structure for the repeated measures of the outcome variable of a subject needs to be specified by this method. However, statistical criteria for selecting the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables in GEE are only available recently because the GEE method is developed on the basis of quasi-likelihood theory. Maximum likelihood based model selection methods, such as the widely used Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), are not applicable to GEE directly. Pan (2001) proposed a selection method called QIC which can be used to select the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables. Based on the QIC method, we developed a computing program to calculate the QIC value for a range of different distributions, link functions and correlation structures. This program was written in Stata software. In this article, we introduce this program and demonstrate how to use it to select the most parsimonious model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data through several representative examples.

Development of a supply chain management security risk management method : a conceptual model

This paper continues the prior research undertaken by Warren and Leitch (2009), in which a series of initial research findings were presented. These findings identified that in Australia, Supply Chain Management (SCM) systems were the weak link of Australian critical infrastructure. This paper focuses upon the security and risk issues associated with SCM systems and puts forward a new SCM Security Risk Management method, continuing the research presented at the European Conference of Information Warfare in 2009.This paper proposes a new Security Risk Analysis model that deals with the complexity of protecting SCM critical infrastructure systems and also introduces a new approach that organisations can apply to protect their SCM systems. The paper describes the importance of SCM systems from a critical infrastructure protection perspective. The paper then discusses the importance of SCM systems in relation to supporting centres of populations and gives examples of the impact of failure. The paper proposes a new SCM security risk analysis method that deals with the security issues related to SCM security and the security issues associated with Information Security. The paper will also discuss a risk framework that can be used to protect against high and low level associated security risks using a new SCM security risk analysis method.

Modelling for injection moulding process based on principal component regression method

Determination of the optimal operating condition for moulding process has been of special interest for many researchers. To determine the optimal setting, one has to derive the model of injection moulding process first which is able to map the relationship between the input process control factors and output responses. One of most popular modeling techniques is the linear least square regression due to its effectiveness and completeness. However, the least square regression was found to be very sensitive to the outliers and failed to provide a reliable model if the control variables are highly related with each other. To address this problem, a new modeling method based on principal component regression was proposed in this paper. The distinguished feature of our proposed method is it does not only consider the variance of covariance matrix of control variables but also consider the correlation coefficient between control variables and target variables to be optimised. Such a modelling method has been implemented into a commercial optimisation software and field test results demonstrated the performance of the proposed modelling method.

It's the economy : the effect of macroeconomic variables of the rate of suicide

Background. There are a large number of factors mediating suicide. Many studies have searched for a direct causal relationship between economic hardship and suicide, however, findings have been varied.

Method. Suicide data was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period between January 1968 and August 2002. These were correlated with a suite of macroeconomic data including housing loan interest rates, unemployment rates, days lost to industrial disputes, Consumer Price Index, gross domestic product, and the Consumer Sentiment Index.

Results. A total of 51 845 males and 16 327 females committed suicide between these dates. There were significant associations between suicide rates and eleven macroeconomic indicators for both genders in at least one age range. Data was divided into male and female and five age ranges and pooled ages. Analyses were conducted on these 132 datasets resulting in 80 significant findings. The data was generally stronger for indices measuring economic performance than indices measuring consumers’ perceptions of the state of the economy. A striking difference between male and female trends was seen. Generally, male suicide rates increased with markers of economic adversity, while the opposite pattern was seen in females. There were significantly different patterns in age-stratified data, with for example higher housing loan interest rates having a positive association with suicide in younger people and a negative association in older age groups.

Conclusion. Macroeconomic trends are significantly associated with suicide. The patterns in males and females are very different, and there are further substantial age-related differences.