36 resultados para Lee-Carter model

em Deakin Research Online - Australia


Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Catalogue essay 2 in a catalogue of an exhibition held at SASA Gallery, Adelaide, 8 May-1 June 2007. He addresses the notion of what it is to collect and how art objects survive the transposition associated with collecting.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Objectives: To outline the development, structure, data assumptions, and application of an Australian economic model for stroke (Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke [MORUCOS]). Methods: The model has a linked spreadsheet format with four modules to describe the disease burden and treatment pathways, estimate prevalence-based and incidence-based costs, and derive life expectancy and quality of life consequences. The model uses patient-level, community-based, stroke cohort data and macro-level simulations. An interventions module allows options for change to be consistently evaluated by modifying aspects of the other modules. To date, model validation has included sensitivity testing, face validity, and peer review. Further validation of technical and predictive accuracy is needed. The generic pathway model was assessed by comparison with a stroke subtypes (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or undetermined) approach and used to determine the relative cost-effectiveness of four interventions. Results: The generic pathway model produced lower costs compared with a subtypes version (total average first-year costs/case AUD$15,117 versus AUD$17,786, respectively). Optimal evidence-based uptake of anticoagulation therapy for primary and secondary stroke prevention and intravenous thrombolytic therapy within 3 hours of stroke were more cost-effective than current practice (base year, 1997). Conclusions: MORUCOS is transparent and flexible in describing Australian stroke care and can effectively be used to systematically evaluate a range of different interventions. Adjusting results to account for stroke subtypes, as they influence cost estimates, could enhance the generic model.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Background and Purpose— Cost-effectiveness data for stroke interventions are limited, and comparisons between studies are confounded by methodological inconsistencies. The aim of this study was to trial the use of the intervention module of the economic model, a Model of Resource Utilization, Costs, and Outcomes for Stroke (MORUCOS) to facilitate evaluation and ranking of the options.

Methods— The approach involves using an economic model together with added secondary considerations. A consistent approach was taken using standard economic evaluation methods. Data from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS) were used to model "current practice" (base case), against which 2 interventions were compared. A 2-stage process was used to measure benefit: health gains (expressed in disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and filter analysis. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated, and probabilistic uncertainty analysis was undertaken.

Results— Aspirin, a low-cost intervention applicable to a large number of stroke patients (9153 first-ever cases), resulted in modest health benefits (946 DALYs saved) and a mean ICER (based on incidence costs) of US $1421 per DALY saved. Although the health gains from recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (rtPA) were less (155 DALYs saved), these results were impressive given the small number of persons (256) eligible for treatment. rtPA dominates current practice because it is more effective and cost-saving.

Conclusions— If used to assess interventions across the stroke care continuum, MORUCOS offers enormous capacity to support decision-making in the prioritising of stroke services.


Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper describes research supporting the development of a conceptual model for understanding the sources of business value of Business-to-Business (B2B) Electronic Markets. Based on six case studies and an analysis of current literature, Aggregation, Matching, and Integration emerged as the three key sources of business value. The framework provides a structured and systematic approach for understanding various B2B Electronic Market models, and helps develop strategies to leverage these sources of business value.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Rod rolling is a process where the deformation state of the workpiece between the work rolls is quite different from the strip rolling process. However, in most microstructure evolution models, the simple area strains (natural logarithm of the area reduction ratio) multiplied by a constant have been used to compute pass-by-pass evolution of austenite grain size (AGS) in rod (or bar) rolling, without any verification. The strains at a given pass play a crucial role in determining the recrystallization behavior (static or dynamic). In this study, an analytical model that calculates the pass-by-pass strain and strain rate in rod rolling has been developed and verified by conducting four-pass (oval–round) bar and plate rolling experiments. Numerical simulations have then been carried out for the four-pass rolling sequence using the area strain model and the new analytical model, focusing on the effect of the method for calculating the strain on the recrystallization behavior and evolution of AGS. The AGS predicted was compared with those obtained from hot torsion tests. It is shown that the analytical model developed in this study is more appropriate in the analysis of bar (or rod) rolling. It was found that the recrystallization behavior and evolution of AGS during this process were influenced significantly by the calculation method for the deformation parameters (strain and strain rate). The pass-by-pass strain obtained from the simple area strain model is inadequate to be used as an input to the equations for recrystallization and AGS evolution under these rolling conditions.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This study presents an integrated model for computing the thermo-mechanical parameters (cross-sectional shape of workpiece, the pass-by-pass strain and strain rate and the temperature variation during rolling and cooling between inter-stands) and metallurgical parameters (recrystallisation behaviour and austenite grain size—AGS), to assess the potential for developing “Thermo-Mechanical Controlled Process” technology in rod (or bar) rolling, which has been a well-known technical terminology in strip (or plate) rolling since 1970s.

The advantage of this model is that metallurgical and mechanical parameters are obtained simultaneously in a short computation time compared with other models. The model has been applied to a rod mill to predict the exit cross-sectional shape, area and AGS per pass by incorporating the equations for AGS evolution being used in strip rolling. At the finishing train of rod mills, the strain rates reach as high as 1000–3000 s−1 and the inter-pass times are around 10–60 ms.

The results show that the proposed model is an efficient tool for evaluating the effects of process-related parameters on product quality and dimensional tolerance of the products in rod (or bar) rolling. The results of the simulation demonstrated that the equation for AGS evolution being used in strip rolling might have limitations when applied directly to rod rolling at a high strain rate.


Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Web 2.0, regardless of the exact definition, has proven to bring about significant changes to the way the Internet was used. Evident by key innovations such as Wikipedia, FaceBook, YouTube, and Blog sites, these community-based Website in which contents are generated and consumed by the same group of users are changing the way businesses operate. Advertisements are no longer dasiaforcedpsila upon the viewers but are instead dasiaintelligentlypsila targeted based on the contents of interest. In this paper, we investigate the concept of Web 2.0 in the context of business entities. We asked if Web 2.0 concepts could potentially lead to a change of paradigm or the way businesses operate today. We conclude with a discussion of a Web 2.0 application we recently developed that we think is an indication that businesses will ultimately be affected by these community-based technologies; thus bringing about Business 2.0 - a paradigm for businesses to cooperate with one another to deliver improved products and services to their own customers.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

A workshop presentation

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Muscle invasive transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder is associated with a high frequency of metastasis, resulting in poor prognosis for patients presenting with this disease. Models that capture and demonstrate step-wise enhancement of elements of the human metastatic cascade on a similar genetic background are useful research tools. We have utilized the transitional cell carcinoma cell line TSU-Pr1 to develop an in vivo experimental model of bladder TCC metastasis. TSU-Pr1 cells were inoculated into the left cardiac ventricle of SCID mice and the development of bone metastases was monitored using high resolution X-ray. Tumor tissue from a single bone lesion was excised and cultured in vitro to generate the TSU-Pr1-B1 subline. This cycle was repeated with the TSU-Pr1-B1 cells to generate the successive subline TSU-Pr1-B2. DNA profiling and karyotype analysis confirmed the genetic relationship of these three cell lines. In vitro, the growth rate of these cell lines was not significantly different. However, following intracardiac inoculation TSU-Pr1, TSU-Pr1-B1 and TSU-Pr1-B2 exhibited increasing metastatic potential with a concomitant decrease in time to the onset of radiologically detectable metastatic bone lesions. Significant elevations in the levels of mRNA expression of the matrix metalloproteases (MMPs) membrane type 1-MMP (MT1-MMP), MT2-MMP and MMP-9, and their inhibitor, tissue inhibitor of metalloprotease-2 (TIMP-2), across the progressively metastatic cell lines, were detected by quantitative PCR. Given the role of MT1-MMP and TIMP-2 in MMP-2 activation, and the upregulation of MMP-9, these data suggest an important role for matrix remodeling, particularly basement membrane, in this progression. The TSU-Pr1-B1/B2 model holds promise for further identification of important molecules.

Relevância:

30.00% 30.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This study examines the pattern of asset allocation and the performance of unit trust in Malaysia over the post crisis period by using risk-adjusted performance measures and multi-factor model from the year 2000 to 2004. Evidence from the statistics suggests that an active asset allocation strategy had been observed among Malaysian fund managers during the post Asian financial crisis. It is also suggested that investment allocation in equity remained a dominant vehicle for investment and asset allocation. Findings from multifactor model suggest that all funds of different objectives registered positive alphas except for income funds, with growth funds being among the top. While balanced funds registered highest diversification effectively, diversifying away about 70%-80% of unsystematic risk, the momentum factor is not among the important elements to explain unit trust performance in Malaysia.