On work in progress optimisation

In this paper, we investigate how to best optimise the level of work in progress (WIP) in a real world factory. Using a simulation model of the factory, we show that an optimum level of WIP can be attained. By systematically varying the maximum allowable level of WIP within different model runs, results show that the throughput reaches a high level very quickly and then tapers off. The production lead times, in contrast, begin at relatively low levels and increase after the optimum WIP level has been reached.

Sheet forming simulation for AHSS components in the automotive industry

The trend in the automotive industry towards new advanced high strength steels (AHSS), combined with the ongoing reduction in program lead times have increased the need to get tool designs right, first time. Despite the fact that the technology used by sheet metal stamping companies to design and manufacture tooling is advancing steadily, finding optimal process parameters and tool geometries remains a challenge. Consequently, there has been a transition from designs based largely on trial and error techniques and the experience of the stamping engineer, to the increased use of virtual manufacturing and finite element (FE) simulation predictions as an indispensable tool in the design process. This work investigates the accuracy of FE techniques in predicting the forming behavior of AHSS grades, such as TRIP and dual phase, as compared to more commonly used conventional steel grades. Three different methods of simulation, one-step, implicit and explicit techniques, were used to model the forming process for an automotive part. Results were correlated with experimental strain and thickness measurements of manufactured components from the production line.

Mathematical modelling of the crankshaft pin grinding process

Novel mathematical models to predict crankshaft pin grinding forces, out-of-roundness and thermal damage were developed as part of this thesis. The models were validated at a local automotive manufacturer's plant. The outcomes of this research have resulted in reduced scrap and warranty costs, improved manufacturing process quality and reduced lead times.

Development of an optimum factory model for a manufacturing operation through computer simulation

Often manufacturing enterprises will maintain high levels of Work In Progress (WIP) to maximise production throughput. Using computer simulation, this thesis investigates a manufacturing facility and identifies an optimal level of WIP. At this optimum throughput is maximised, manufacturing lead times are minimised, and the WIP level is significantly reduced.

Flood forecasting in large rivers with data-driven models

Results from the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast water levels at 3 stations along the mainstream of the Lower Mekong River are reported in this paper. The study investigated the effects of including water levels from upstream stations and tributaries, and rainfall as inputs to ANFIS models developed for the 3 stations. When upstream water levels in the mainstream were used as input, improvements to forecasts were realized only when the water levels from 1 or at most 2 upstream stations were included. This is because when there are significant contributions of flow from the tributaries, the correlation between the water levels in the upstream stations and stations of interest decreases, limiting the effectiveness of including water levels from upstream stations as inputs. In addition, only improvements at short lead times were achieved. Including the water level from the tributaries did not significantly improve forecast results. This is attributed mainly to the fact that the flow contributions represented by the tributaries may not be significant enough, given that there could be large volume of flow discharging directly from the catchments which are ungauged, into the mainstream. The largest improvement for 1-day forecasts was obtained for Kratie station where lateral flow contribution was 17 %, the highest for the 3 stations considered. The inclusion of rainfall as input resulted in significant improvements to long-term forecasts. For Thakhek, where rainfall is most significant, the persistence index and coefficient of efficiency for 5-lead-day forecasts improved from 0.17 to 0.44 and 0.89 to 0.93, respectively, whereas the root mean square error decreased from 0.83 to 0.69 m.

Changing times in research? A speculative analysis of refereed contributions to distance education journal from 1980 to 2003

The paper observes a number of possible changes impacting on the field of distance education research and suggests that these are likely to have lead to an increasing interest in research on computer-based instructional design and delivery, and a concomitant decrease in interest in other areas of distance education research. A fairly simple analysis of contributions to Distance Education since 1980 bears out the suggestion. Some opportunities and some threats to distance education as a field are discussed as a consequence of the analysis.

Many routes lead to Rome : potential causes for the multi-route migration system of Red Knots, Calidris canutus islandica

Migrants, such as birds or representatives of other taxa, usually make use of several stopover sites to cover the distance between their site of origin and destination. Potentially, multiple routes exist, but often little is known about the causes and consequences of alternative migration routes. Apart from their geographical distribution, the suitability of potential sites might play an important role in the animals’ decisions for a particular itinerary. We used an optimal-migration model to test three nonmutually exclusive hypotheses leading to variations in the spring migration routes of a subspecies of Red Knot, Calidris canutus islandica, which migrates from wintering grounds in Western Europe to breeding grounds in Greenland and the Canadian Arctic: the breeding location hypothesis, the energy budget hypothesis, and the predation risk hypothesis. Varying only breeding location, the model predicted that birds breeding in the Canadian Arctic and on West Greenland stop over on Iceland, whereas birds breeding in East and Northeast Greenland migrate via northern Norway, a prediction that is supported by empirical findings. Energy budgets on stopover sites had a strong influence on the choice of route and staging times. Varying foraging-intensity and mass-dependent predation risk prompted the birds to use less risky sites, if possible. The effect of simultaneous changes in the energy budget and predation risk strongly depended on the site where these occurred. Our findings provide potential explanations for the observations that C. canutus islandica uses a diverse array of migration routes. Scrutinizing the three alternative driving forces for the choice of migratory routes awaits further, specific data collection in rapidly developing fields of research (e.g., predation risk assessment, GPS tracking). Generally, the type of modeling presented here may not only highlight alternative explanations, but also direct follow-up empirical research.