Forests of the sea: predictive habitat modelling to assess the abundance of canopy forming kelp forests on temperate reefs

 Large brown seaweeds (kelps) form forests in temperate and boreal marine systems that serve as foundations to the structure and dynamics of communities. Mapping the distributions of these species is important to understanding the ecology of coastal environments, managing marine ecosystems (e.g., spatial planning), predicting consequences of climate change and the potential for carbon production. We demonstrate how combining seafloor mapping technologies (LiDAR and multibeam bathymetry) and models of wave energy to map the distribution and relative abundance of seaweed forests of Ecklonia radiata can provide complete coverage over hundreds of square kilometers. Using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), we associated observations of E. radiata abundance from video transects with environmental variables. These relationships were then used to predict the distribution of E. radiata across our 756.1km2 study area off the coast of Victoria, Australia. A reserved dataset was used to test the accuracy of these predictions. We found that the abundance distribution of E. radiata is strongly associated with depth, presence of rocky reef, curvature of the reef topography, and wave exposure. In addition, the GLMM methodology allowed us to adequately account for spatial autocorrelation in our sampling methods. The predictive distribution map created from the best GLMM predicted the abundance of E. radiata with an accuracy of 72%. The combination of LiDAR and multibeam bathymetry allowed us to model and predict E. radiata abundance distribution across its entire depth range for this study area. Using methods like those presented in this study, we can map the distribution of macroalgae species, which will give insight into ecological communities, biodiversity distribution, carbon uptake, and potential sequestration.

Integrated natural resource management in Australia: the opportunity offered by a national coastal policy

Under the Australian Constitution the management (and planning) of Crown Land is a State and Territory Government responsibility. When this is considered in conjunction with the Offshore Constitutional Settlement, which affirmed that coastal waters out to three nautical miles (in general) offshore were also the responsibility of State and Territory Governments, then clearly coastal management in Australia is largely a State/Territory responsibility.

Beyond three nautical miles it is a different story. Under the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS), which Australia ratified in October 1994, Australia claims jurisdiction out to 200 nautical miles and beyond (Wescott, 2000). These waters cover an area including the Antarctic claim of over 15 million square kilometres or twice the land area of Australia.

Hence in marine and coastal terms we have the national (Commonwealth) Government managing the oceans and seven State and Territory governments largely in charge of coastal management (coastal land and coastal waters). Heading "up river", State and Territory Governments plan and manage catchments.

Given the uncoordinated relationships between Australian coastal management policy and both catchment management policy and Australia's Ocean Policy (Commonwealth of Australia, 1998a and b), the Commonwealth Government's commitment to a "National Coastal Policy" presents an opportunity to progress the integration of natural resources management for the first time in decades.

Visions of the surf coast – changing landscapes under future climate effects

The Surf Coast of Victoria is a traveller's paradise with some of Australia's best surf beaches, bustling resort towns, spectacular scenery, lush rainforests and huge cascading waterfalls. This incredible coastline of Victoria is home to the popular surf towns such as Barwon Heads, Torquay, Anglesea, Lome, and the infamous Bells Beach, all of which epitomise much of the 'sea-change' phenomena. These communities survive today because of the high visual and natural attributes they are situated within, or adjacent to, that underpins their existence and economic survival. Change these landscape attributes and qualities and you have a dramatic effect upon their context, economic, social and environmental attributes and values. This paper investigates the potential climate effects of these settlements, through literature review of various recent studies undertaken on climate change vulnerability and adaption of the Surf Coast and the Great Ocean Road corridor. The results are used as inputs to a proposed Design Based Adaptation Model (DBAM) which can inform adaptive planning and design responses of the physical and social infrastructure, through the visions of changing landscapes of the Surf Coast under future climate effects.