Short- and long-term consequences of early developmental conditions : a case study on wild and domesticated zebra finches

Divergent selection pressures among populations can result not only in significant differentiation in morphology, physiology and behaviour, but also in how these traits are related to each other, thereby driving the processes of local adaptation and speciation. In the Australian zebra finch, we investigated whether domesticated stock, bred in captivity over tens of generations, differ in their response to a life-history manipulation, compared to birds taken directly from the wild. In a ‘common aviary’ experiment, we thereto experimentally manipulated the environmental conditions experienced by nestlings early in life by means of a brood size manipulation, and subsequently assessed its short- and long-term consequences on growth, ornamentation, immune function and reproduction. As expected, we found that early environmental conditions had a marked effect on both short- and long-term morphological and life-history traits in all birds. However, although there were pronounced differences between wild and domesticated birds with respect to the absolute expression of many of these traits, which are indicative of the different selection pressures wild and domesticated birds were exposed to in the recent past, manipulated rearing conditions affected morphology and ornamentation of wild and domesticated finches in a very similar way. This suggests that despite significant differentiation between wild and domesticated birds, selection has not altered the relationships among traits. Thus, life-history strategies and investment trade-offs may be relatively stable and not easily altered by selection. This is a reassuring finding in the light of the widespread use of domesticated birds in studies of life-history evolution and sexual selection, and suggests that adaptive explanations may be legitimate when referring to captive bird studies.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of weight management in primary care

Background:  As obesity prevalence and health-care costs increase, Health Care providers must prevent and manage obesity cost-effectively.

Methods:  Using the 2006 NICE obesity health economic model, a primary care weight management programme (Counterweight) was analysed, evaluating costs and outcomes associated with weight gain for three obesity-related conditions (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, colon cancer). Sensitivity analyses examined different scenarios of weight loss and background (untreated) weight gain.

Results:  Mean weight changes in Counterweight attenders was −3 kg and −2.3 kg at 12 and 24 months, both 4 kg below the expected 1 kg/year background weight gain. Counterweight delivery cost was £59.83 per patient entered. Even assuming drop-outs/non-attenders at 12 months (55%) lost no weight and gained at the background rate, Counterweight was ‘dominant’ (cost-saving) under ‘base-case scenario’, where 12-month achieved weight loss was entirely regained over the next 2 years, returning to the expected background weight gain of 1 kg/year. Quality-adjusted Life-Year cost was £2017 where background weight gain was limited to 0.5 kg/year, and £2651 at 0.3 kg/year. Under a ‘best-case scenario’, where weights of 12-month-attenders were assumed thereafter to rise at the background rate, 4 kg below non-intervention trajectory (very close to the observed weight change), Counterweight remained ‘dominant’ with background weight gains 1 kg, 0.5 kg or 0.3 kg/year.

Conclusion:  Weight management for obesity in primary care is highly cost-effective even considering only three clinical consequences. Reduced healthcare resources use could offset the total cost of providing the Counterweight Programme, as well as bringing multiple health and Quality of Life benefits.

Long-term epidemiological survey of Kudoa thyrsites (Myxozoa) in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) from commercial aquaculture farms

Kudoa thyrsites (Myxozoa) encysts within myocytes of a variety of fishes. While infected fish appear unharmed, parasite-derived enzymes degrade the flesh post-mortem. In regions of British Columbia (BC), Canada, up to 4-7% of fillets can be affected, thus having economic consequences and impacting the competitiveness of BC's farms. K. thyrsites was monitored in two farms having high (HP) or low (LP) historical infection prevalence. At each farm, 30 fish were sampled monthly for blood and muscle during the first year followed by nine samplings during year two. Prevalence and intensity were measured by PCR and histology of muscle samples. In parallel, fillet tests were used to quantify myoliquefaction. Infections were detected by PCR after 355 and 509 degree days at LP and HP farms, respectively. Prevalence reached 100% at the HP farm by 2265 degree days and declined during the second year, whereas it plateaued near 50% at the LP farm. Infection intensities decreased after 1 year at both farms. Blood was PCR-positive at both farms between 778 and 1113 degree days and again after 2000 degree days. This is the first monitoring project in a production environment and compares data between farms with different prevalence.

Acknowledging long-term ecological change: the problem of shifting baselines

Shifting baselines describes the phenomenon where long-term changes to an environment go unrecognized because what is perceived as natural shifts with succeeding generations of scientists and other observers. This is a particular problem for the oceans because we are rarely able to directly observe the consequences of human activities. In the absence of data to track these consequences, a common assumption has been that the communities we observe today using SCUBA or other technology, are similar to the communities that existed 10, 100, or even 1000 years ago. Research is increasingly demonstrating this is not the case. Instead, marine ecosystems may have been vastly different in the past, and we have succumbed to the shifting baselines syndrome. This has significant implications for scientific study, management, and for human communities more broadly. We discuss these implications, and how we might address the shifting baseline syndrome in the oceans to confront its repercussions. In a world where environmental degradation is accelerating, doing so is critical to avoid further ratcheting down of our expectations of ecosystem health and productivity, and to ensure that we have the information necessary to implement appropriate recovery and management goals.

Long-term trends in the Australaian gannet (Morus serrator) population in Australia: the effect of climate change and commercial fisheries

The Australasian gannet (Morus serrator) population has increased considerably over the past century, both in New Zealand and Australia. Since 1980, the population in Australian waters has increased threefold, from 6,600 breeding pairs to approximately 20,000 pairs in 1999-2000, a rate of 6% per year. Reasons for the increase in the Australasian gannet population are poorly understood; here we consider the possible effects of recent fluctuations in climatic and oceanographic conditions, and changes in major local commercial fisheries. A significant trend towards more frequent, and stronger, El Niño Southern Oscillation events, warmer summer sea surface temperatures in Bass Strait, increased annual catches and catch per unit effort in the Victorian pilchard (Sardinops sagax) fishery and potential increased discarding of fisheries bycatch may account for at least some of the observed increase in the Australasian gannet population. The potential interactive effects of these factors on prey distribution and abundance and consequently on gannet numbers are discussed.

Long-term effects of calcium-vitamin-D3-fortified milk on bone geometry and strength in older men

The long-term effects of calcium and vitamin D supplementation on bone material and structural properties in older men are not known. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of high calcium (1000 mg/day)- and vitamin-D3 (800 IU/day)-fortified milk on cortical and trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD) and bone geometry at the axial and appendicular skeleton in men aged over 50 years. One hundred and eleven men who were part of a larger 2-year randomized controlled trial had QCT scans of the mid-femur and lumbar spine (L1–L3) to assess vBMD, bone geometry and indices of bone strength [polar moment of inertia (Ipolar)]. After 2 years, there were no significant differences between the milk supplementation and control group for the change in any mid-femur or L1–L3 bone parameters for all men aged over 50 years. However, the mid-femur skeletal responses to the fortified milk varied according to age, with a split of ≤62 versus >62 years being the most significant for discriminating the changes between the two groups. Subsequent analysis revealed that, in the older men (>62 years), the expansion in mid-femur medullary area was 2.8% (P < 0.01) less in the milk supplementation compared to control group, which helped to preserve cortical area in the milk supplementation group (between group difference 1.1%, P < 0.01). Similarly, for mid-femur cortical vBMD and Ipolar, the net loss was 2.3 and 2.8% less in the milk supplementation compared to control group (P < 0.01 and <0.001, respectively). In conclusion, calcium–vitamin-D3-fortified milk may represent an effective strategy to maintain bone strength by preventing endocortical bone loss and slowing the loss in cortical vBMD in elderly men.

Long-term flowering patterns of melliferous Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) species

The flowering patterns of 28 Victorian melliferous (honey-producing) eucalypts were investigated by using long-term observations of highly experienced, commercial apiarists. Frequency, timing, duration and intensity of flowering were determined, as were spatial differences within and among species. Data were obtained by face-to-face interviews with 25 Victorian apiarists, each of whom had operated a minimum of 350 hives for a minimum of 30 years. Flowering frequency ranged from 1 to 7 years, and most species flowered once every 2–4 years. Long-term flowering frequency, timing and duration were reported as constant, although short-term perturbations could occur. Most melliferous species flowered during spring and summer for a period of 3 months or more. Only few species had shorter flowering periods. Information provided by apiarists compared well with available published information (e.g. flowering period reported in field guides) and revealed a reliable, largely untapped source of long-term data, the use of which could benefit many ecological research endeavours.

Long-term 5-year effects of a reduced-fat diet intervention in individuals with glucose intolerance

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether reducing dietary fat would reduce body weight and improve long-term glycemia in people with glucose intolerance. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A 5-year Follow-up of a 1-year randomized controlled trial of a reduced-fat ad libitum diet versus a usual diet. Participants with glucose intolerance (2-h blood glucose 7.0-11.0 mmol/l) were recruited from a Workforce Diabetes Survey. The group that was randomized to a reduced-fat diet participated in monthly small-group education sessions on reduced-fat eating for 1 year. Body weight and glucose tolerance were measured in 136 participants at baseline 6 months, and 1 year (end of intervention), with follow-up at 2 years (n = l04), 3 years (n = 99), and 5 years (n = 103). RESULTS: Compared with the control group, weight decreased in the reduced-fat-diet group (P < 0.0001); the greatest difference was noted at 1 year (-3.3 kg), diminished at subsequent follow-up (-3.2 kg at 2 years and -1.6 kg at 3 years), and was no longer present by 5 years (1.1 kg). Glucose tolerance also improved in patients on the reduced-fat diet; a lower proportion had type 2 diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance at 1 year (47 vs. 67%, P < 0.05), but in subsequent years, there were no differences between groups. However, the more compliant 50% of the intervention group maintained lower fasting and 2-h glucose at 5 years (P = 0.041 and P = 0.026 respectively) compared with control subjects. CONCLUSIONS: The natural history for people at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes is weight gain and deterioration in glucose tolerance. This process may be ameliorated through adherence to a reduced fat intake

A structural events approach to examining long-term change in the Australian trade union movement, 1969-1996

Traditional studies of long-term change in trade union structure have predominantly focused on aggregate trends in union merger activity, in constructing explanations of change. This paper argues that our understanding of structural change in the Australian trade union movement would be better served by a structural events approach that examines the incidence of union formations, dissolutions, and breakaways, in addition to that of union mergers. In doing so, it outlines how these structural events can be identified and measured, and presents the preliminary findings from the methods application.

The structural events approach- A "better" way to understand long-term change in trade union structure: the Australian story (1986-96)

Traditional studies of long-term change in trade union structure have predominantly focused on aggregate trends in union merger activity in constructing explanations of change. Using the Australian trade union movement as an example, this article argues that our understanding of the long-term change in the external structure of trade unions would be better served by a structural events approach (Waddington, 1995) that examines the incidence of union formations, dissolutions, and breakaways, in addition to that of union mergers. In doing so, this article presents new data on structural change in the Australian trade union movement between 1986 and 1996, and explains the additional contribution made by union dissolutions and union formations to the reductionist effects of the merger wave that dominated these years.

Pregnancy and lactation have no long-term deleterious effect on measures of bone mineral in healthy women: a twin study

BACKGROUND: The long-term effects of pregnancy and lactation on measures of bone mineral in women remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE: We studied whether pregnancy or lactation has deleterious long-term effects on bone mineral in healthy women.

DESIGN: We measured bone mineral density (BMD; g/cm(2)) in women aged > or = 18 y. Analyses were performed on 3 data sets: study 1, 83 female twin pairs (21 monozygous and 62 dizygous) aged (x +/- SD) 42.2 +/- 15.5 y who were discordant for ever having been pregnant beyond 20 wk; study 2, 498 twin pairs aged 42.3 +/- 15.0 y; and study 3, 1354 individual twins, their siblings, and family members.

RESULTS: In study 1, there were no significant within-pair differences in unadjusted BMD or BMD adjusted for age, height, and fat mass at the lumbar spine or total-hip or in total-body bone mineral content (BMC; kg) (paired t tests). In study 2, there was no significant within-pair difference in measures of bone mineral or body composition related to the within-pair difference in number of pregnancies. In study 3, subjects with 1 or 2 (n = 455) and > or = 3 pregnancies (n = 473) had higher adjusted lumbar spine BMD (2.9% and 3.8%, respectively; P = 0.001) and total-body BMC (2.2% and 3.1%; P < 0.001) than did nulliparous women (n = 426). Parous women who breast-fed had higher adjusted total-body BMC (2.6%; P = 0.005), total-hip BMD (3.2%; P = 0.04), and lower fat mass (10.9%; P = 0.01) than did parous non-breast-feeders.

CONCLUSION: We found no long-term detrimental effect of pregnancy or breast-feeding on bone mineral measures.