Application of sequential nonparametric confidence bands in finance

In a nonparametric setting, the functional form of the relationship between the response variable and the associated predictor variables is assumed to be unknown when data is fitted to the model. Non-parametric regression models can be used for the same types of applications such as estimation, prediction, calibration, and optimization that traditional regression models are used for. The main aim of nonparametric regression is to highlight an important structure in the data without any assumptions about the shape of an underlying regression function. Hence the nonparametric approach allows the data to speak for itself. Applications of sequential procedures to a nonparametric regression model at a given point are considered.

The primary goal of sequential analysis is to achieve a given accuracy by using the smallest possible sample sizes. These sequential procedures allow an experimenter to make decisions based on the smallest number of observations without compromising accuracy. In the nonparametric regression model with a random design based on independent and identically distributed pairs of observations (X ,Y ), where the regression function m(x) is given bym(x) = E(Y X = x), estimation of the Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator (m (x)) NW and local linear kernel estimator (m (x)) LL for the curve m(x) is considered. In order to obtain asymptotic confidence intervals form(x), two stage sequential procedure is used under which some asymptotic properties of Nadaraya-Watson and local linear estimators have been obtained.

The proposed methodology is first tested with the help of simulated data from linear and nonlinear functions. Encouraged by the preliminary findings from simulation results, the proposed method is applied to estimate the nonparametric regression curve of CAPM.

Fiscal stringency and fiscal sustainability : panel evidence from the American state and local governments

Most state (and local) governments in the U.S. operate under formal fiscal rules which limit their ability to run budget deficits and resort to debt financing. A priori, one would expect to find evidence in favor of an intertemporally balanced budget, or fiscal sustainability, for these states, especially those characterized by a relatively high degree of fiscal stringency. We test this hypothesis for a panel of 47 state–local government units (1961–2006) using four budget balance definitions and several subsamples defined based on regional classifications, or presence of certain balanced budget requirements (BBRs). Our results, obtained from panel estimation techniques that allow for general forms of serial and cross-sectional dependence, suggest that a sufficient condition for “strong” sustainability is consistently satisfied for the full sample and all subsamples in relation to balances that include special funds and/or federal grants. However, we find evidence consistent with the “weak” version of sustainability for the full sample and some regional subsamples (particularly Far West dominated by California) in at least one of the two balances that exclude these items. Finally, the BBRs seem to matter only in relation to the sustainability of the more narrowly defined balances. We discuss the implications of these findings for the role of fiscal rules and federal grant policies.

Boom and bust in Australian screen policy: 10BA, the Film Finance Corporation, and Hollywood's 'race to the bottom'.

In recent years, a narrative has emerged in the Australian popular media about the box office 'unpopularity' of Australian feature films and the 'failure' of the domestic screen industry. This article explores the recent history of Australian screen policy with particular reference to the '10BA' tax incentive of the 1980s; the Film Finance Corporation of Australia (FFC), a government screen agency established in 1988 to bring investment bank-style portfolio management to Australia's screen industry; and local production incentive policies pursed by Australian state governments in a chase for Hollywood's runaway production.

We argue the 10BA incentive catalysed an unsustainable bubble in Australian production, while its policy successor, the FFC, fundamentally failed in its stated mission of 'commercial' screen financing (over its 20-year lifespan, the FFC invested 1.345 billion Australian dollars for 274.2 million Australian dollars recouped - a cumulative return of negative 80 percent). For their part, private investors in Australian films discovered that the screen production process involved high levels of risk.

Foreign-financed production also proved highly volatile, due to the vagaries of trade exposure, currency fluctuations and tax arbitrage. The result of these macro and micro-economic factors often structural and cross-border in nature was that Australia's screen industry failed to develop the local investment infrastructure required to finance a sustainable, non-subsidised local sector.