Determining trends and environmental drivers from long-term marine mammal and seabird data : examples from Southern Australia

Climate change is acknowledged as an emerging threat for top-order marine predators, yet obtaining evidence of impacts is often difficult. In south-eastern Australia, a marine global warming hotspot, evidence suggests that climate change will profoundly affect pinnipeds and seabirds. Long-term data series are available to assess some species' responses to climate. Researchers have measured a variety of chronological and population variables, such as laying dates, chick or pup production, colony-specific abundance and breeding success. Here, we consider the challenges in accurately assessing trends in marine predator data, using long-term data series that were originally collected for other purposes, and how these may be driven by environmental change and variability. In the past, many studies of temporal changes and environmental drivers used linear analyses and we demonstrate the (theoretical) relationship between the magnitude of a trend, its variability, and the duration of a data series required to detect a linear trend. However, species may respond to environmental change in a nonlinear manner and, based on analysis of time-series from south-eastern Australia, it appears that the assumptions of a linear model are often violated, particularly for measures of population size. The commonly measured demographic variables exhibit different degrees of variation, which influences the ability to detect climate signals. Due to their generally lower year-to-year variability, we illustrate that monitoring of variables such as mass and breeding chronology should allow detection of temporal trends earlier in a monitoring programme than observations of breeding success and population size. Thus, establishing temporal changes with respect to climate change from a monitoring programme over a relatively short time period requires careful a priori choice of biological variables. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Tax incentives for foreign direct investment part I : Recent trends and countertrends

According to the conventional wisdom, tax incentives for investment - in particular for foreign direct investment (FDI) - are not recommended. That is the view held almost universally by theorists and by the international bodies that advise on tax matters.' Tax incentives are bad in theory and bad in practice. They are bad in theory principally because they cause distortions: investment decisions are made that would not have been made without the inducement of special tax concessions. They are bad in practice, being both ineffective and inefficient. They are ineffective in that tax considerations are only rarely a major determinant in FDI decisions; they are inefficient because their cost, in terms of tax revenue foregone, often far exceeds any benefits they may produce. Other criticisms are also frequently levelled against tax incentives for FDI - they are inequitable (since they benefit some investors but not others), they are difficult to administer and open to abuse, and they lack transparency. Thus, it is not surprising that ''the standard advice given by institutions like the World Bank and the lMF to developing countries is to refrain from offering tax incentives to foreign investors".2 The purpose of this article is not to question that advice or to challenge the conventional wisdom - except in one respect. Recent evidence does suggest that tax considerations are an increasingly important factor in investment decisions and that special tax incentives have become substantially more effective as instruments for attracting FDI than they were 10 or 20 years ago.3 The first part of this article, published here, examines some of that evidence, reviews some recent trends in national policies towards FDI, attempts to suggest why investment incentives have become more important and more effective, and looks at the pressures that are exerted on governments, especially in developing countries, to compete for FDI by offering special incentives. The second part of the article, to be published in the Bulletin next month, assumes that many countries will continue to offer tax incentives to investors regardless of the best advice, and considers how incentives might be designed in order to increase their effectiveness and efficiency.

Generic drugs: international trends and policy developments in Australia

Public and private third-party payers in many countries encourage or mandate the use of generic drugs. This article examines the development of generics policy in Australia, against the background of a description of international trends in this area, and related experiences of reference pricing programs. The Australian generics market remains underdeveloped due to a historical legacy of small Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme price differentials between originator brands and generics. It is argued that policy measures open to the Australian government can be conceived as clustering around two different approaches: incremental changes within the existing regulatory framework, or a shift towards a high volume/low price role of generics which would speed up the delivery of substantial cost savings, and could provide enhanced scope for the financing of new, patented drugs.

Partners of problem gamblers who present for counselling: demographic profile and presenting problems

This study examined the characteristics of partners of problem gamblers. The study participants were 440 partners, who sought help in a 12-month period from the publicly-funded Break Even counselling services in the state of Victoria, Australia. The analyses revealed that the partners of problem gamblers were far from an homogenous group, with having to face the consequences of another person's problematic gambling seeming to be the only common characteristic. Almost one-third (29.6%) of clients were male and with the exception of financial problems, which were more likely to be reported by females, the presenting problems were similar. When compared to all Victorians aged 15 years and over, greater proportions of male and female partners of problem gamblers were participants in the labour force.

The influence of demographic, behavioural and treatments characteristics on problem gambling counselling outcomes

The paper considers the influence of client characteristics and gambling behaviour as well as treatment modality on the resolution of gambling behaviour for 591 clients who sought help from the publicly funded BreakEven counselling services in the state of Victoria between 1 July 1996 and 30 June 1997. Statistical data about clients and their consultations was collected in the form of a Minimum Data Set. On their own, client demographics accounting for 12% of the variance were identified as discriminating between problem gamblers who achieved some resolution of their gambling behaviour and those whose behaviour did not change. Variables associated with gambling behaviour accounted for 10% of variance and treatment variables for 12% of variance in treatment outcomes. Collectively, the three types of data could explain 26% of the variance in problem resolution. Importantly, these findings demonstrate that the resolution of problematic gambling behaviour is affected by a complex interplay of client characteristics, their gambling behaviour and the treatment they receive. It is argued that the evaluation of treatment programs for problem gambling, and potentially all counselling programs in the primary health arena, needs to include measures from each of these domains.

Trends and guidelines in online privacy policy

Online privacy policies (OPP) are important mechanisms for informing online consumers about the level of information privacy protection afforded when visiting web sites. To date, societal mechanisms and technologies have been the focus of attempts to improve the quality and effectiveness of OPPs. We present findings from a longitudinal, empirical study of online privacy policies. Our research found that although online privacy policies have improved in quality and effectiveness since 2000, they still fall well short of the level of privacy assurance desired by consumers. This study analyses trends in OPPs over the two years of the study, identifying areas of deficiency and improvements, and offering a solution in the form of a detailed set of guidelines for organisational online privacy policy. Our study adds to existing theory in this area and, more immediately, will assist businesses concerned about the effect of privacy issues on consumer web usage.

A preliminary meta-analysis of SME ebusiness journal publications: current trends and future research opportunities moving beyond adoption factor studies

Previous meta-analyses of SME-eBusiness journal research focuses on analysing adoption factors, pre-2000 articles and a small number of journals. This paper departs from this research by analysing 100 articles published between 2003 and 2006 in 41 journals on the basis of the research approaches employed, countries and eBusiness technologies studied, and research objectives focused upon. The paper presents preliminary insights into current major research trends based on this analysis, such as the predominant focus on adoption factor by many studies. It also identifies future research opportunities, and proposes a research agenda which aims to progress SME-eBusiness research beyond adoption factor studies by outlining research objectives to help SMEs overcome barriers and exploit drivers.

Common trends and common cycles in per capita GDP : the case of the G7 Countries, 1870-2001

In this paper we analyze per capita incomes of the G7 countries using the common cycles test developed by Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8:341–360, 1993) and extended by Hecq et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62:511–532, 2000; Econometric Reviews, 21:273–307, 2002) and the common trend test developed by Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231–254, 1988). Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing the innovations into permanent and transitory components. Our main finding is permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in incomes for the G7 countries over short time horizons, and is in sharp contrast to the bulk of the recent literature. We attribute this to the greater forecasting accuracy achieved, which we later confirm through performing a post sample forecasting exercise, from the variance decomposition analysis.

Corporate responsibility reports assurance trends and the role of management accountants

Over the past decade, corporate responsibility (CR) has moved from the fringes of the business world to being a significant boardroom agenda. What began largely as an extension of public relations reporting where organisations disclosed basic health and safety monitoring, and environmental impact results has now grown to a wider set of governance practices premised on the philosophy of sustainability.

This paper discusses some of the developing trends in the area of assurance of CR reports, and the emerging challenges faced by the assurance providers and managers alike. The paper also explores the role of management accountants in enhancing CR reporting and its assurance practices.

Modelling the linkages between the Australian and G7 stock markets : common stochastic trends and regime shifts

This paper examines whether the Australian equity market is integrated with the equity markets of the G7 economies by applying both the Johansen (Statistical analysis of conintegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54, 1988) and Gregory and Hansen (Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126, 1996) approaches to cointegration. Some evidence of a pairwise long-run relationship between the Australian stock market and the stock markets of Canada, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom is found, but the Australian equity market is not pairwise cointegrated with the equity markets of France, Germany or the USA.