Three essays on stock returns and inflation - Australian evidence

Results of this thesis suggest that a significant negative relation between stock returns and inflation identified in Australia during ‘inflation targeting’ is mainly due to an incidence of ‘flight to safety’. Furthermore, the impact of inflation news on stock returns is industry-sector dependent. Specifically, in Australia rising inflation seems to be good news for Financials, but bad news for Materials.

Foot-targeting in reaching and grasping

Foot positioning was investigated when right-handed (Experiment One) and left handed adults (Experiment Two) stopped walking to grasp a stationary 70 mm ball at shoulder height. In both experiments centroid location formed by the toe and heel coordinates relative to the object was highly consistent within a target-location condition, demonstrating a foot-targeting phenomenon. Centroid location in the anterior-posterior direction was uninfluenced by grasping hand but the centroid shifted right for left hand grasps and left for right hand grasps. With the target either centrally located or on the same side as the dominant hand, foot positioning brought the grasping hand closer to the target in the medial-lateral direction. When the target object was aligned with the shoulder opposite the dominant hand both groups adopted foot positions to the left of the target. Thus, neither group adopted optimal foot position when the target was located opposite their dominant hand. Foot orientation angle relative to the target was also influenced by choice of grasping hand. Collectively, the findings demonstrate a close association between grasping hand and foot position when approaching to reach and grasp an object but also suggest that foot-dominance may influence medial-lateral centroid location.

Who are "innovators" and do they matter?: A critical review of the evidence supporting the targeting of “innovative” consumers

Purpose – This paper aims to bring together and evaluate the reasons that have historically been advanced to justify the heavy emphasis on innovative consumers within the general context of the adoption of products and services, and to assess the strategic benefits to be gained from targeting such market segments.

Design/methodology/approach – The approach is critical review and analysis of the published
literature.

Findings – This paper finds that, although the benefits of identifying innovative early adopters are not as strong and clear-cut as is often claimed, they are still sufficient to warrant further research into methods that will accurately identify them and predict their purchasing behaviour.

Practical implications – Targeting strategies should distinguish carefully between truly innovative consumers and other early adopters. The costs of identifying them in a particular market need to be weighed against the potential benefits.

Originality/value – Although many studies have attempted to address the question of what drives individual adoption behaviour, the rationale for that focus has not been well established and is rarely critiqued. In clarifying the situation, this paper should provide guidance for academic researchers and marketing planners.

Dissecting obesogenic behaviours: the development and application of a test battery for targeting prescription for weight loss

There are limited practical tools to help clinicians or public health workers manage obesity in their patients. We have previously developed a scanning technique for diagnosing environments leading to obesity (Analysis Grid for Environments/Elements Leading to Obesity). Here we describe the development of a tool for identifying behaviours in an individual most likely to lead to obesity. A questionnaire battery of five tests called the DAB-Q (Diet, Activity and Behaviour Questionnaire) was developed, piloted and internally validated with overweight women from a commercial weight loss programme. Outcome from the tests, which are available free on the Internet, provides clinicians with a simple, effective and time-saving tool for ranking foods, drinks and activities likely to be most effectively targeted for weight loss in an individual. This is based on total scores derived from measures of frequency, potential for change and potency of each item as a potential contributor to overweight.

Is money targeting an option for Bank Indonesia?

In this paper, using the cash-in-advance model, we estimate Indonesia's money demand function for the period 1970–2005. We find the real M1 and real M2 are cointegrated with their determinants, namely real income, real exchange rate and short-term domestic and foreign interest rates. The long-run elasticities, except for the relationship between M2 and domestic interest rate, are plausible. Interestingly, we find a negative relationship between real exchange rate and real money demand, suggesting evidence of currency substitution. We test for causal relationships and find that in the short-run only the real exchange rate Granger causes real M1 and real M2. Finally, we find that Indonesia's money demand functions are unstable. We conclude that money targeting is not an option for Bank Indonesian and that currency substitution should be curbed in order to ensure macroeconomic sustainability.

Bypassing luminal barriers, delivery to a gut addressin by parenteral targeting elicits local IgA responses

Induction of mucosal immunity, particularly to subunit vaccines, has been problematic. The primary hurdle to successful mucosal vaccination is the effective delivery of vaccine antigen to the mucosal associated lymphoid tissue. Physical and chemical barriers restrict antigen access and, moreover, immune responses induced in the mucosa can be biased towards tolerance or non-reactivity. We proposed that these difficulties could be circumvented by targeting antigen to the gastrointestinal associated lymphoid tissue via systemic (parenteral) rather than alimentary routes, using antibodies specific for the mucosal addressin cellular adhesion molecule-1 (MAdCAM). After intravenous or intramuscular injection of such rat antibodies in mice, we found a greatly enhanced (up to 3 logs) anti-rat antibody response. MAdCAM targeting induces a rapid IgA antibody response in the gut and vastly improves the systemic antibody response. Targeting also enhanced T cell proliferation and cytokine responses. Parenteral targeting of mucosal addressins may represent a generic technique for bypassing mucosal barriers and eliminating the need for adjuvants in the induction of proximal and systemic immunity.

Forecasting inflation, industrial output and exchange rates : a template study for India

This paper reports results from a forecasting study for inflation, industrial output and exchange rates for India. We cannot reject the null hypothesis for linearity for all series used except for the growth rate of the foreign exchange series and our analysis is based on linear models, ARIMA and bivariate transfer functions and restricted VAR. Forecasting performance is evaluated using the models’ root mean-squared error differences and Theil’s inequality coefficients from recursive origin static, fixed origin dynamic and rolling origin dynamic forecasts. For models based on weekly data, based on RMSEs, we find that the bivariate models improve upon the forecasts of the ARIMA model while for models based on monthly data the ARIMA model has almost always better performance. In choosing between the two bivariate models on the basis of RMSEs, our overall results tend to support the use of a restricted VAR, as this model had the best forecasting performance more frequently than the transfer function model.

Costs of inflation in Australia and New Zealand.

This paper evaluates the costs of inflation in Australia and New Zealand using a compensated measure calculated by calibrating a general equilibrium search model in the vein of Lagos and Wright (2005). We look at how inflation affects the intensive margin (the quantity traded in each match) by examining the impact of various pricing protocols. We also look at how inflation affects the extensive margin (the number of trades) by making the market composition between buyers and sellers endogenous. We obtain much larger costs of inflation than existing studies, but smaller costs than similar studies conducted on the US economy. Depending on the version of the model the costs of 10% inflation for a $50,000 worker ranges from $250 to $2200 per year in Australia, and from $200 to $1700 in New Zealand, that is between 0.5% and 4.4% of GDP and between 0.4% and 3.4% of GDP respectively. Finally it is calculated that Australia could gain up to 1.6% of GDP per annum--1.2% for New Zealand--by implementing the Friedman rule.

Forecasting industry-level CPI and PPI inflation : does exchange rate pass-through matter?

We show that incorporating the effects of exchange rate pass-through into a model can help in obtaining superior forecasts of domestic, industry-level inflation. Our analysis is based on a multivariate system of domestic inflation, import prices and exchange rates that incorporates restrictions from economic theory. These are restrictions on the transmission channels of the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices, and are presented as testable hypotheses that lead to model reduction. We provide the results of various tests, including causality and prior restrictions, which support the underlying economic arguments and the model we use. The forecasting results for our model suggest that it has a superior performance overall, jointly producing more accurate forecasts of domestic inflation.

Cost-effectiveness of a family-based GP-mediated intervention targeting overweight and moderately obese children

Objective
 To assess from a societal perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of a family-based GP-mediated intervention targeting overweight and moderately obese children. The intervention was modelled on the LEAP (live, eat and play) trial, a randomised controlled trial conducted by the Centre for Community Child Health, Melbourne, Australia in 2002–2003. This study was undertaken as part of the assessing cost-effectiveness (ACE) in obesity project which evaluated, using consistent methods, 13 interventions targeting unhealthy weight gain in children and adolescents.
Method
A logic pathway was used to model the effects of the intervention compared to no intervention on body mass index (BMI) and health outcomes (disability-adjusted life years—DALYs). Disease costs and health benefits were tracked until the cohort of eligible children reached the age of 100 years or death. Simulation-modelling techniques were used to present a 95% uncertainty interval around the cost-effectiveness ratio. The intervention was also assessed against a series of filters (‘equity’, ‘strength of evidence’, ‘acceptability’, ‘feasibility’, sustainability’ and ‘side-effects’) to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions.
Results
The intervention, as modelled, reached 9685 children aged 5–9 years with a BMI z-score of ≥3.0, and cost $AUD6.3M (or $AUD4.8M excluding time costs). It resulted in an incremental saving of 2300 BMI units which translated to 511 DALYs. The cost-offsets stemming from the intervention totalled $AUD3.6M, resulting in a net cost per DALY saved of $AUD4670 (dominated; $0.1M) (dominated means intervention costs more for less effect).
Conclusion
Compared to a ‘no intervention’ control group, the intervention was cost-effective under current assumptions, although the uncertainty intervals were wide. A key question related to the long-term sustainability of the small incremental weight loss reported, based on the 9-month follow-up results for LEAP.

Modeling the relationship between budget deficits, money supply and inflation in Fiji

For Fiji, which has been suffering persistent deficits since independence, determining the relationships between inflation, budget deficits, money supply, output, and import prices is essential. We find that inflation, deficits and money supply are cointegrated when inflation is the endogenous variable, and the long-run elasticities confirm that money supply and deficits induce inflation. While there is a short-run, unidirectional causality running from money supply to inflation and a bi-directional causality between money supply and budget deficits, in the long run both money supply and deficits ?Granger-cause? inflation.

A new instrument for targeting falls prevention interventions was accurate and clinically applicable in a hospital setting

Background and Objective: To describe the diagnostic accuracy and practical application of the Peter James Centre Falls Risk Assessment Tool (PJC-FRAT), a multidisciplinary falls risk screening and intervention deployment instrument.

Methods: In phase 1, the accuracy of the PJC-FRAT was prospectively compared to a gold standard (the STRATIFY) on a cohort of subacute hospital patients (n = 122). In phase 2, the PJC-FRAT was temporally reassessed using a subsequent cohort (n = 316), with results compared to those of phase 1. Primary outcomes were falls (events), fallers (patients who fell), and hospital completion rates of the PJC-FRAT.

Results: In phase 1, PJC-FRAT accuracy of identifying fallers showed  sensitivity of 73% (bootstrap 95% confidence interval CI = 55, 90) and specificity of 75% (95% CI = 66, 83), compared with the STRATIFY (cutoff ≥ 2/5) sensitivity of 77% (95% CI = 59, 92) and specificity of 51% (95% CI = 41, 61). This difference was not significant. In phase 2, accuracy of nursing staff using the PJC-FRAT was lower. PJC-FRAT completion rates varied among disciplines over both phases: nurses and physiotherapists, ≥90%; occupational therapists, ≥82%; and medical officers, ≥57%.

Conclusion: The PJC-FRAT was practical and relatively accurate as a predictor of falls and a deployment instrument for falls prevention interventions, although continued staff education may be necessary to maintain its accuracy.