Unhealthy landscapes: policy recommendations on land use change and infectious disease emergence

Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges. The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities. The centers' objectives would be 3-fold: a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health ; b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research ; and c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems.

Teachers' risk perception and needs in addressing infectious disease outbreak

The outbreak of the Influenza A (H1N1) virus has led to numerous precautionary school closures in several countries. No research is available on the school teachers’ perceptions as a health protective resource in controlling communicable disease outbreaks. The purposes of this study were to examine the risk perception, the perceived understanding of preventive measures and contingency plans, and the needs of school teachers before the imminent outbreak of H1N1. This survey was conducted with 1,169 Hong Kong school teachers before school closures due to the H1N1 outbreak. The results showed that the teachers were well aware of H1N1 but were still worried about the spread of H1N1 infection. The teachers’ worries depended on their psychological reaction, the adequacy of the control measures, government support in providing infectious disease knowledge, perceived understanding of preventive measures and contingency plans, students and parents’ awareness, and the need for support from health professionals.

Managing the risks from new and emerging infectious disease: the 'one health' paradigm

The global risk from new and emerging infectious diseases continues to grow with recognition that, for the most part, the pathogens involved emerge from animals to infect humans. Recognizing the complexity of these interactions and the need for a strong interdisciplinary approach to effectively manage these risks, new partnerships are being forged under the general umbrella of 'one health'. Involving human health, animal health, and environmental health exponents, solutions are sought for how to prevent as well as respond to the threats. But is this approach working? Whilst a number of key meetings continue to be held under the One Health umbrella, are we really seeing measureable progress in risk prevention and mitigation? Focusing research on the drivers for emergence, on modeling the risks, on improved diagnostics, and on targeted vaccines could considerably enhance our ability to prevent and respond. Ensuring the uptake and applications of new diagnostics and vaccines will be the key to prevention and response, but achieving this will require policies that drive further the One Health collaborations. Such policies should ensure that scant available resources are targeted toward the identified outcomes through research delivery and uptake, and that we genuinely work as "one world" in tackling the very real risks we face

Measuring underreporting and under-ascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods

 Background: Efficient and reliable surveillance and notification systems are vital for monitoring public health and disease outbreaks. However, most surveillance and notification systems are affected by a degree of underestimation (UE) and therefore uncertainty surrounds the 'true' incidence of disease affecting morbidity and mortality rates. Surveillance systems fail to capture cases at two distinct levels of the surveillance pyramid: from the community since not all cases seek healthcare (under-ascertainment), and at the healthcare-level, representing a failure to adequately report symptomatic cases that have sought medical advice (underreporting). There are several methods to estimate the extent of under-ascertainment and underreporting. Methods. Within the context of the ECDC-funded Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)-project, an extensive literature review was conducted to identify studies that estimate ascertainment or reporting rates for salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis in European Union Member States (MS) plus European Free Trade Area (EFTA) countries Iceland, Norway and Switzerland and four other OECD countries (USA, Canada, Australia and Japan). Multiplication factors (MFs), a measure of the magnitude of underestimation, were taken directly from the literature or derived (where the proportion of underestimated, under-ascertained, or underreported cases was known) and compared for the two pathogens. Results: MFs varied between and within diseases and countries, representing a need to carefully select the most appropriate MFs and methods for calculating them. The most appropriate MFs are often disease-, country-, age-, and sex-specific. Conclusions: When routine data are used to make decisions on resource allocation or to estimate epidemiological parameters in populations, it becomes important to understand when, where and to what extent these data represent the true picture of disease, and in some instances (such as priority setting) it is necessary to adjust for underestimation. MFs can be used to adjust notification and surveillance data to provide more realistic estimates of incidence. © 2014 Gibbons et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Wildlife infectious disease dynamics in the context of seasonality and bird migration

The thesis contains chapters that elucidate questions with regards to wildlife infectious disease dynamics - avian influenza in particular - and how those dynamics are affected by seasonality and avian migration.

Geographic variation in seasonality and its influence on the dynamics of an infectious disease

Seasonal changes in environmental drivers - such as temperature, rainfall, and resource availability - have the potential to shape infection dynamics through their reverberating effects on biological processes including host abundance and susceptibility to infection. However, seasonality varies geographically. We therefore expect marked differences in infection dynamics between regions with different seasonal patterns. By pairing extensive Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) surveillance data - 65 358 individual bird samples from 12 species of dabbling ducks sampled at 174 locations across North America - with quantification of seasonality using remote sensed data indicative for primary productivity (normalised differenced vegetation index, NDVI), we provide evidence that seasonal dynamics influence infection dynamics across a continent. More pronounced epidemics were seen to occur in regions experiencing a higher degree of seasonality, and epidemics of lower amplitude and longer duration occurred in regions with a more protracted and lower seasonal amplitude. These results demonstrate the potential importance of geographic variation in seasonality for explaining geographic variation in the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife.

Real-time early infectious outbreak detection systems using emerging technologies

The use of emerging technologies ( such as RFID - Radio Frequency Identification and remote sensing) can be employed to reduce health care costs and also to facilitate the automatic streamlining of infectious disease outbreak detection and monitoring processes in local health departments. It can assist medical practitioners with fast and accurate diagnosis and treatments. In this paper we outline the design and application of a real-time RFID and sensor-base Early Infectious (e.g., cholera) Outbreak Detection and Monitoring (IODM) system for health care.

Maternal supplementation with LGG reduces vaccine-specific immune responses in infants at high-risk of developing allergic disease

Probiotics are defined as live micro-organisms that when administered in adequate amounts confer a health benefit on the host. Among their pleiotropic effects, inhibition of pathogen colonization at the mucosal surface as well as modulation of immune responses are widely recognized as the principal biological activities of probiotic bacteria. In recent times, the immune effects of probiotics have led to their application as vaccine adjuvants, offering a novel strategy for enhancing the efficacy of current vaccines. Such an approach is particularly relevant in regions where infectious disease burden is greatest and where access to complete vaccination programs is limited. In this study, we report the effects of the probiotic, Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG) on immune responses to tetanus, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and pneumococcal conjugate (PCV7) vaccines in infants. This study was conducted as part of a larger clinical trial assessing the impact of maternal LGG supplementation in preventing the development of atopic eczema in infants at high-risk for developing allergic disease. Maternal LGG supplementation was associated with reduced antibody responses against tetanus, Hib, and pneumococcal serotypes contained in PCV7 (N = 31) compared to placebo treatment (N = 30) but not total IgG levels. Maternal LGG supplementation was also associated with a trend to increased number of tetanus toxoid-specific T regulatory in the peripheral blood compared to placebo-treated infants. These findings suggest that maternal LGG supplementation may not be beneficial in terms of improving vaccine-specific immunity in infants. Further clinical studies are needed to confirm these findings. As probiotic immune effects can be species/strain specific, our findings do not exclude the potential use of other probiotic bacteria to modulate infant immune responses to vaccines.

Metals in the environment as risk factors for infectious diseases: gaps and opportunities

Many parts of the world in which common infectious diseases are endemic also have the highest prevalence of trace metal deficiencies or rising rates of trace metal pollution. Infectious diseases can increase human susceptibility to adverse effects of metal exposure (at suboptimal or toxic levels), and metal excess or deficiency can increase the incidence or severity of infectious diseases. The co-clustering of major infectious diseases with trace metal deficiency or toxicity has created a complex web of interactions with serious but poorly understood health repercussions, yet has been largely overlooked in animal and human studies. This book focuses on the distribution, trafficking, fate, and effects of trace metals in biological systems. Its goal is to enhance our understanding of the relationships between homeostatic mechanisms of trace metals and the pathogenesis of infectious diseases. Drawing on expertise from a range of fields, the book offers a comprehensive review of current knowledge on vertebrate metal-withholding mechanisms and the strategies employed by different microbes to avoid starvation (or poisoning). Chapters summarize current, state-of-the-art techniques for investigating pathogen-metal interactions and highlight open question to guide future research. The book makes clear that improving knowledge in this area will be instrumental to the development of novel therapeutic measures against infectious diseases. ContributorsM. Leigh Ackland, Vahid Fa Andisi, Angele L. Arrieta, Michael A. Bachman, J. Sabine Becker, Robert E. Black, Julia Bornhorst, Sascha Brunke, Joseph A. Caruso, Jennifer S. Cavet, Anson C. K. Chan, Christopher H. Contag, Heran Darwin, George V. Dedoussis, Rodney R. Dietert, Victor J. DiRita, Carol A. Fierke, Tamara Garcia-Barrera, David P. Giedroc, Peter-Leon Hagedoorn, James A. Imlay, Marek J. Kobylarz, Joseph Lemire, Wenwen Liu, Slade A. Loutet, Wolfgang Maret, Andreas Matusch, Trevor F. Moraes, Michael E. P. Murphy, Maribel Navarro, Jerome O. Nriagu, Ana-Maria Oros-Peusquens, Elisabeth G. Pacyna, Jozef M. Pacyna, Robert D. Perry, John M. Pettifor, Stephanie Pfaffen, Dieter Rehder, Lothar Rink, Anthony B. Schryvers, Ellen K. Silbergeld, Eric P. Skaar, Miguel C. P. Soares, Kyrre Sundseth, Dennis J. Thiele, Richard B. Thompson, Meghan M. Verstraete, Gonzalo Visbal, Fudi Wang, Mian Wang, Thomas J. Webster, Jeffrey N. Weiser, Günter Weiss, Inga Wessels, Bin Ye, Judith T. Zelikoff, Lihong Zhang

Deterministic versus stochastic quantitative microbial Risk Assessment models for wastewater irrigation of food crops

Reuse of wastewater to irrigate food crops is being practiced in many parts of the world and is becoming more commonplace as the competition for, and stresses on, freshwater resources intensify. But there are risks associated with wastewater irrigation, including the possibility of transmission of pathogens causing infectious disease, to both workers in the field and to consumers buying and eating produce irrigated with wastewater. To manage these risks appropriately we need objective and quantitative estimates of them. This is typically achieved through one of two modelling approaches: deterministic or stochastic. Each parameter in a deterministic model is represented by a single value, whereas in stochastic models probability functions are used. Stochastic models are theoretically superior because they account for variability and uncertainty, but they are computationally demanding and not readily accessible to water resource and public health managers. We constructed models to estimate risk of enteric virus infection arising from the consumption of wastewater-irrigated horticultural crops (broccoli, cucumber and lettuce), and compared the resultant levels of risk between the deterministic and stochastic approaches. Several scenarios were tested for each crop, accounting for different concentrations of enteric viruses and different lengths of environmental exposure (i.e. the time between the last irrigation event and harvest, when the viruses are liable to decay or inactivation). In most situations modelled the two approaches yielded similar estimates of risk (within 1 order-of-magnitude). The two methods diverged most markedly, up to around 2 orders-of-magnitude, when there was large uncertainty associated with the estimate of virus concentration and the exposure period was short (1 day). Therefore, in some circumstances deterministic modelling may offer water resource managers a pragmatic alternative to stochastic modelling, but its usefulness as a surrogate will depend upon the level of uncertainty in the model parameters.

Mycobacterium ulcerans infection : factors influencing diagnostic delay

Objective: To document the epidemiology, clinical characteristics and diagnosis of an outbreak of Mycobacterium ulcerans infection (Bairnsdale or Buruli ulcer [BU]) during the period 1998–2006, and compare delays in diagnosis between residents of endemic and non-endemic regions.

Design and setting: Retrospective case study of patients identified through infectious disease physicians on the Bellarine Peninsula and the Victorian Department of Human Services notifiable diseases database.

Main outcome measures: Description of events leading to diagnosis of BU.

Results: Eighty-five BU patients recalled their experience. Fifty-three patients were older than 60 years, and 61 permanently resided on the Bellarine Peninsula. The onset of symptoms occurred most frequently in mid winter. Twenty-eight patients had lesions on the arm and 51 on the leg. The median time between onset of symptoms and first medical contact was shorter for those living in the endemic area (3.0 weeks; interquartile range [IQR], 1.0–5.0 weeks) compared with non-endemic areas (5.3 weeks; IQR, 2.0–9.5 weeks) (P = 0.05). Patients who resided in the endemic area had a shorter median time from their first medical appointment to diagnosis (1.0 week; IQR, 0.0–3.9 weeks) than those who resided in non-endemic areas (5.0 weeks; IQR, 1.3–8.0 weeks) (P = 0.001).

Conclusion: Delay in presentation and time to diagnosis of BU are longer in non-endemic than endemic areas. Measures should be taken to raise awareness of the disease in non-endemic areas.

Models of screening

This article describes models for disease screening and how they have developed in recent years. The discussion focuses on screening for cancer, because most of the methodological advances in screening design and evaluation have concerned cancer screening. The first part of the article describes the characteristics of these models and illustrates them with a discussion of a simple screening model. The second part describes the development, strengths, and weaknesses of the two main types of screening model—analytic and simulation models—with a particular focus on microsimulation models. The third part discusses model fitting and validation, and the final part briefly describes models for diseases other than cancer—in particular, models for screening for infectious diseases—and discusses the current state and possible future directions for models of disease screening.

Introduction to epidemiology

Covers historical development of the field of epidemiology, introduces the basic conept of the rate and discusses the concept of risk in the context of population health in light of chronic and infectious disease.

Tuberculosis associated with household crowding in a developed country

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains an important infectious disease in New Zealand (NZ) and globally, but risk factors for transmission are still poorly understood. This research aimed to identify whether household crowding contributes to TB transmission in NZ.

Methods: This ecological study used TB surveillance and census data to calculate TB incidence rates by census area unit (CAU). Census data were used to determine CAU characteristics including proportion of household crowding (a bedroom deficit of one or more), proportion of population who are migrants born in high-TB-incidence countries, median household income, and deprivation level. A negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the association between TB incidence and household crowding.

Results: The analysis included 1898 notified TB cases for the 2000–4 period. Univariate analysis showed TB incidence at the CAU level was associated with household crowding, for the total population and for all ethnic and age groups. After adjusting for the covariates of household income, existing TB burden, and proportion of migrants from high-TB-incidence countries, multivariate analysis showed statistically significant associations between TB incidence and household crowding. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 1.05 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.08) in the total population and 1.08 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.12) for NZ-born people <40 years.

Conclusion: At the CAU level, TB incidence in NZ is associated with household crowding. An individual-based study (e.g. case–control) in recently infected cases (detected by molecular epidemiology techniques) is suggested to complement these findings. Reducing or eliminating household crowding could decrease TB incidence in NZ and globally.